New Poll

EKOS released a new poll today through The Globe and Mail. Here are the results:

Conservatives - 36.2%
Liberals - 32.6%
New Democrats - 14.3%
Greens - 9.1%
Bloc Québécois - 7.9%

The Ontario numbers are interesting as well, with the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 39%, thought that is well within the margin of error (4.8%). The NDP at 11% must be worrisome for them, if true. The Quebec numbers are very close between the Liberals and Conservatives (21% to 20.9%) but the 12.2% result for the Green Party looks a little wonky.

There are no major changes to the projections. The Liberals have risen to 96 seats from 95 and the NDP has sunken to 24. They seem to be the ones steadily on the decline.

In terms of popular vote, there also aren't any major changes. The most significant would seem to be a half-percentage-point loss by the NDP in Ontario.

New Projections

Finally, the site has been updated with new projections. The Conservatives look to lose a few seats but maintain a strong minority government. The Liberals have the most to gain, Michael Ignatieff bumping up the Liberals to 95 seats. The NDP looks to be the biggest loser were an election to take place today, dropping to 25 seats. The Bloc would gain one seat, stealing some from the Conservatives while losing a few to the Liberals. Quebec is one of the biggest changes, with the Liberals up about three points and the Conservatives down around two.

Here are the seat changes from the 2008 election:

Liberals +18
Bloc Québécois +1
Independents -2
Conservatives -5
NDP -12

And here are the popular vote changes:

Liberals +3.7
Conservatives -0.1
Greens -0.3
Bloc Québécois -0.7
NDP -1.7

Here are the popular vote changes in Ontario for the three major parties:

Liberals +3.5
Conservatives +0.2
NDP -2.0

And here for Quebec:

Liberals +2.5
Bloc Québécois +1.0
NDP -2.1
Conservatives -2.5

The reality is that Ignatieff has been a game changer. The Conservatives have hurt a bit from it but the real loser has to be the NDP.