New Harris-Decima Poll

Harris-Decima has released a new poll, taken between February 26 and March 8 and involving 2,000 interviews. So that makes two large polls in recent days. But the result here is very different from the last two Ipsos-Reid and Strategic Counsel polls we've seen. The national results:

Liberals - 33%
Conservatives - 32%
New Democrats - 14%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

We have the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat, which is a little different than the slight lead by the Conservatives that was reported in the two other recent polls. This does confirm, however, the weakness of the NDP.

The regional results were also interesting. In British Columbia, the Conservatives are at 38% and the Liberals at 32%, far closer than what we've seen. The NDP is only at 19%, which would be worrisome for them. In Alberta, the Conservatives were listed at 49%, which is low for them.

The Quebec results:

Bloc Quebecois - 39%
Liberals - 32%
Conservatives - 13%
New Democrats - 9%
Greens - 6%

This confirms the Bloc numbers we've seen over the last few weeks, hovering around 40%. The Liberal result, however, is rather strong and the Conservative result gives further evidence that they are in trouble in Quebec.

The Ontario results:

Liberals - 38%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 13%
Greens - 13%

The NDP is really struggling in Ontario, the only place they could make some real gains. Jack Layton has to be worried about this. Having Thomas Mulcair from Quebec as the deputy party leader is good and all, but the NDP isn't going to grow in Quebec.

The projection itself has changed as well. The Liberals have risen to 101 seats and the NDP has slipped once again, now to 20. The seat loss comes in British Columbia. The +/- projection change nationally is as follows:

Greens +0.4
Liberals +0.3
Bloc Quebecois -0.1
New Democrats -0.2
Conservatives -0.5

Regional changes have been substantial in some places. The NDP and Liberals have more or less traded a point, to the benefit of Michael Ignatieff. In Ontario, the Conservatives have dropped 0.3 and the Liberals have risen 0.1, which is significant in that the two parties are now tied in Ontario. The NDP is down half a point. The Liberals have gained 0.7 in Quebec while the Conservatives have slipped by 0.6 to below 18%.

So, the Coles Notes for this poll are the following: the Conservatives should be concerned everywhere, especially in Quebec. The Liberals should be satisfied, especially in Quebec, but not over-confident. The NDP should be in crisis mode, and the Bloc is steady.

New Polls, New Projection!

Strategic Counsel has released a new poll, and Ipsos-Reid was nice enough to send me the details of their poll (thanks!), so there is a new projection! For the rest of the information from the Ipsos-Reid poll, go to the bottom of the page. Here are the highlights from the Strategic Counsel poll, held between March 5-8 and involving 1000 people:

Conservatives - 35%
Liberals - 31%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

In Ontario:

Conservatives - 41%
Liberals - 37%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 8%

In Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 40%
Liberals - 30%
Conservatives - 10%
New Democrats - 10%
Greens - 10%

Now this result is interesting, for a few reasons. One, apparently the Green Party has had a disastrous drop from 26% to 10%. What happened?! Oh right, Strategic Counsel messed up the last poll. Two, the Conservatives are down to 10%, the lowest result I've seen since 2005. It's clear that the Conservatives are in trouble in Quebec.

Strategic Counsel also groups the poll by the "West", which can't be entered into my system. But here is the result nonetheless:

Conservatives - 45%
Liberals - 23%
New Democrats - 20%
Greens - 12%

There has been a change in the projection. The Conservatives are down to 137 seats, the Liberals up to 100, the NDP down to 21, and the Bloc up to 50. As for the national popular vote, the change from early February's projection is:

Liberals +0.4
Bloc Quebecois +0.3
Greens +0.2
Conservatives -0.1
New Democrats -0.7

In Ontario, the change is as follows:

Liberals +0.5
Greens +0.1
Conservatives -0.3
New Democrats -0.4

And Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois +0.9
Greens +0.2
Liberals -0.3
Conservatives -0.3
New Democrats -0.6

What do the various parties have to take from this? The Conservatives have to be concerned with what is going on in Quebec, and Ontario is becoming a real battleground. The Liberals have to be pleased with their performance in Quebec and Ontario, but are losing ground in British Columbia. The NDP is in trouble across the board, and needs to re-evaluate their strategy.