The Democratic Party of Canada?

The blogosphere has been talking about it for a few days and it was brought up for the first time a few weeks ago, but the media is now beginning to report on the story as well.

The New Democrats are considering changing their name. They would drop the "New" and become the Democratic Party.

The NDP has been around for almost 50 years, so it does make sense to drop the "New". After two or three generations, it is difficult to consider them "new" anymore. And it is not unusual for a party to have the same name as parties in other countries. Many nations have Conservative and Liberal parties. The names themselves were brought over from the United Kingdom.

Could the popularity of the Democratic Party in the United States be an instigator for this name change? Quite possibly, but it doesn't really matter. I don't expect to see the NDP jump 5 points because of this, and it is impossible to know how Canadians will feel about the US Democrats in ten, twenty, or thirty years.

However, I'd suggest a different name. The Conservative and Liberal parties have names that are descriptive of their policies. The Bloc Quebecois has a name that is instantly understandable. And the Greens have an internationally recognised name that stands for environmentalism. But "New Democrat" is not descriptive of anything, and the name "Democratic Party" isn't much more descriptive. This Democratic Party of Canada wouldn't be really all that more democratic than the other parties in the House of Commons.

As I've talked about in the past, the New Democrats are part of the Socialist International. Now, unfortunately some of the other parties take to calling the NDP "socialists" in the pejorative sense, but the NDP shouldn't be afraid to be who they are. They frequently refer to their "social democracy", as does the Bloc Quebecois. So, that is not an unknown or scary phrase in Canadian politics.

I would suggest that the NDP change their name to the SDP, or Social Democratic Party. They wouldn't be the first. Various incarnations of the SDP have formed governments throughout the world. In fact, in Nazi Germany the Social Democrats were the only real liberal opponents to Adolf Hitler, and many of them spent years in concentration camps because of it. So the history of organised Social Democracy does have some good elements, and it would not be a bad idea for the NDP to embrace that political movement.

Unfortunately, I doubt the NDP would make such a change. As an alternative, the name "Democratic Party" seems better to me than the New Democrats, for the reasons I've outlined above. They aren't new anymore, and it doesn't help describe who they are. As long as they stick to their roots and keep the horrible olive green and bright orange, I'm down with the name change. Any party that is brave enough to wrap themselves in those colours is okay in my book.

Monthly Picture: July

Now it's time to look at the polling average over the month of July. A eight national polls were taken during this month, totalling about 16,140 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 33.4% (+1.4)
Liberals - 32.3% (-2.1)
New Democrats - 15.7% (+0.4)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.6% (+0.4)
Greens - 8.7% (+0.1)

Only the Conservatives had a good polling month, and they have increased their vote total by 2 points over the last two months. The Liberals had a bad month, dropping more than two points and losing the top spot. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois did alright, while the Greens stagnated. The NDP gain is significant in that they have been struggling since the last election. The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 124 (+12)
Liberals - 111 (-12)
Bloc Quebecois - 50 (+1)
New Democrats - 23 (-1)
Greens - 0 (-1)

The Liberals and Conservatives trade seats, and the Tories are back in power. It is still a close-run thing, however. The Bloc maintains itself while the NDP still loses more than a third of its current caucus.

The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (seven polls - 1,599 people)

Conservatives - 37.8% (+2.7)
Liberals - 27.9% (-3.1)
New Democrats - 21.4% (-0.1)
Greens - 11.7% (-0.2)

ALBERTA (seven polls - 1,169 people)

Conservatives - 58.9% (-0.3)
Liberals - 19.7% (-0.7)
New Democrats - 11.2% (+0.1)
Greens - 9.6% (+1.1)

PRAIRIES (seven polls - 845 people)

Conservatives - 47.4% (-0.3)
Liberals - 21.5% (-4.9)
New Democrats - 21.2% (+2.6)
Greens - 8.3% (+1.5)

ONTARIO (eight polls - 5,679 people)

Liberals - 38.6% (-2.0)
Conservatives - 36.5% (+1.4)
New Democrats - 14.9% (+0.6)
Greens - 9.6% (unchanged)

QUEBEC (eight polls - 3,566 people)

Bloc Quebecois - 37.1% (+0.3)
Liberals - 30.7% (-2.6)
Conservatives - 15.5% (+2.1)
New Democrats - 9.7% (-0.3)
Greens - 6.7% (+0.5)

ATLANTIC CANADA (seven polls - 918 people)

Liberals - 37.2% (-2.0)
Conservatives - 29.6% (+3.2)
New Democrats - 27.6% (+1.5)
Greens - 4.6% (-2.7)

Regionally, the Conservatives and the NDP had the best month, gaining in four regions and losing in only two. The Conservatives losses were very small in the Prairies and Alberta, but they made significant leaps forward in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, with more modest, but still important, gains in Quebec and Ontario. The NDP's gains were smaller, but the 2.6-point gain in the Prairies is a good sign for them, as is the small gain in Ontario. The Greens had a decent month, gaining in three, losing in two, and staying the same in one. All of the movements were very small except in Atlantic Canada, where they lost more than a third of last month's support. That makes an Elizabeth May campaign in Central Nova unlikely. The Bloc had a small gain, but that marks two months in a row.

The Liberals had a bad month, losing in all six regions. Only in Alberta was the loss small, in all other regions the loss was greater than two points, and reached a troublesome give points in the Prairies.

August and September will determine whether we'll be headed to an election in October. Michael Ignatieff will probably not defeat the government if he is still trailing, as the reasons for doing so aren't exactly clear, as they would be following the spring budget.