New Harris-Decima Poll: 6-pt CPC Lead (up one)

And now for something completely different.

Harris-Decima has a new poll out, and it disagrees with both the most recent EKOS and Ipsos-Reid polls.Compared to Harris-Decima's last poll taken between July 15 and July 25, the Conservatives have actually gained three points, and now stand at 34%. The Liberals are also up two points to 28%. While the Conservative gain goes against what the other polls have found, the Liberal gain does not.

The New Democrats are the losers of this poll, dropping three points to 15%. The Bloc Québécois is down to 9% while the Greens are unchanged at 12%.

The Conservatives are up one point in Ontario and lead with 35%. The Liberals are steady at 34%. All of the pollsters seem to agree on the situation in this province. The NDP is down two to 16%.

The Bloc has dropped two points in Quebec and leads with 39%. The Liberals follow with 25% (up six) while both the Conservatives and NDP have gained one point and stand at 14% and 12%, respectively. That is a large Liberal gain between two recent polls of 2,000+ respondents.

And this is something I find odd about this poll. These were taken virtually continuously over the last four weeks and included a lot of people, yet we have a lot of movement. Isn't this supposed to be the dog days of summer?

For example, the Conservatives are up six points in British Columbia, leading with 37%. The Liberals are unchanged at 22% but the NDP is down ten to 20%! While that does correspond with the recent Ipsos-Reid poll, that is a big drop. The Greens are up seven points to 20%, putting them in a good position. Indeed, Elizabeth May seems to be safe for the time being as the Green Party has elected to keep her on as leader rather than put her through a leadership race at the end of the month.

But then in the Prairies we have the Conservatives up ten (to 49%), the Liberals up six (to 25%) and the NDP down 20 (!) to 14%. The Conservatives gain six in Alberta and lead with 61% while the Liberals are down eight to 13%. The Greens are actually second in Alberta with 14%.

Things are relatively stable in Atlantic Canada, however, with the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives 38% to 34%.

It is just slightly strange to have such large variations in two polls taken within a short time of each other and with relatively small margins of error. I don't think there is anything particularly untoward about this, it is likely that both this poll and the last one were on the outside edges of the accuracy spectrum, giving us exaggerated variations. Nevertheless, we rarely see this kind of movement in similar EKOS polling.

The Conservatives win 72 seats in the West and North, 46 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 132.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West and North, 45 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 98.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 6 seats in the West, 15 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 26. Those numbers out west were horrible.

The Greens win one seat in British Columbia.

So, a reduced minority for Stephen Harper and a smaller caucus for the NDP. But a gain of more than 20 MPs for Michael Ignatieff, three new MPs for the Bloc, and the first elected Green MP. The only party who really comes out of this poll badly is the NDP as, despite their reduction in MPs, a minority of this size would buy the Conservatives another 18-24 months.

New Ipsos-Reid Poll: 3-pt Conservative Lead (down three)

Starving as we are for polling data, Ipsos-Reid has come along with a very interesting poll. It shows the Conservatives down, the Liberals up, and the gap between them within the margin of error.Compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll taken between July 6 and 8, the Conservatives have dropped one point and now stand at 34%. The Liberals are up two to 31% while the New Democrats are unchanged at 15%.

The Bloc Québécois is down two to 9% and the Greens are down one to 9% as well.

The Conservatives lead among males with 37% to the Liberals' 31%, but among females the race is tied 31-31. And while Conservatives lead among those aged 35 or older, the Liberals are ahead among those aged 34 or younger. They just need to vote.

Things are mostly unchanged in Ontario, where the Conservatives lead with 36% and the Liberals follow with 35%. Both of those results are no different than a month ago. But the NDP is up three points to 16%.

The Bloc has slipped in Quebec, dropping seven points to 38%. That is still a big lead over the Liberals who are at 24% (down two). The Conservatives and NDP are both up one to 16% and 12%, respectively.

The Conservatives are stable at 38% in British Columbia, while the Liberals are up seven points to 33%. The NDP is down four to 20% and the Greens are down three to 8%. This contradicts some of the other polling we've seen, showing the race in BC to be between the Tories and the NDP.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 42% (where the NDP has jumped six points) and the Conservatives lead in Alberta with 62% and the Prairies with 43%. There has been some movement in that latter region, as the Tories are down eight and the Liberals are up 17 to an unlikely 38%.

The Conservatives win 68 seats in the West and North, 47 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 7 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 128. They need to be doing better out East and in Quebec if they want to get closer to 2008's result.

The Liberals win 22 seats in the West and North, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 104. The Liberals can't expect to take home 38% and seven seats in the Prairies, so they need to increase their support in Ontario.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 5 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 24. Their results in British Columbia and the Prairies are disastrous.

This poll adds fuel to the fire in terms of the narrative of Liberal gains at the expense of the Tories. The census issue won't go away, and as Jeffrey Simpson writes today it isn't so much about the census itself but rather how the Conservatives have handled it and their reasoning behind it that is the problem. Michael Ignatieff has been getting relatively good coverage and it is likely the media is paying far more attention to him in the regional newspapers where he visits.

But the Conservatives still lead, and it will be easier for the Conservatives to hold on to enough votes to keep them in power than it will be for Ignatieff to bring people who haven't voted Liberal since 2004 back into the fold. Numbers like these will give the Opposition a little more bargaining power in the next session of Parliament, but the Prime Minister still has control. It doesn't help that few polls benefit all opposition parties equally, meaning that one or more of them could falter if push comes to shove.