Conservatives lead by 14 in new Ipsos-Reid poll

When the Conservatives criticized EKOS's most recent poll, Ipsos-Reid told Robert Fife of CTV that they were seeing the same things in their polling. Now released, the poll conducted for Postmedia News and Global Television shows an even wider lead for the Conservatives than in EKOS's poll.We last heard from Ipsos-Reid at the beginning of February, and since then the Conservatives have gained five points. They now lead with 39%. The Liberals, down four points, trail at 25%.

These gains are outside of the +/- 3.1 margin of error (19 times out of 20) for a random survey of this size, indicating that some real movement is taking place.

The New Democrats are up two points to 18%, while the Greens are steady at 10%. The Bloc Québécois is down two points to 9% nationally.

When we break down the national support numbers by age, we see a very close race in the 18 to 34 cohort: 26% for the Conservatives, 25% for the Liberals, and 23% for the NDP. But among those over the age of 34, the Tories hold a commanding lead. They are also in front among both men and women.

In Ontario, where the MOE for this survey is about five points, the Conservatives have gained six points and now lead with 42%. The Liberals are down eight to 32%, while the NDP is unchanged at 15%. The Greens, at 11%, are up three points. This is not dissimilar from the results EKOS found last week.

The Bloc Québécois has dropped five points in Quebec, but still leads with 37%. The Conservatives are up six points to 21%, echoing some better results we've seen for the Tories in recent polls. The Liberals and New Democrats are up one point a piece to 17% and 15%. All of these variations are within the 7% MOE for Quebec.

In British Columbia (MOE +/- 9%), the Conservatives are down three points to 39%. The NDP makes a big 13 point gain and now trails with 30%, while the Liberals are down two to 23%. The Greens, at 11%, are down four points.

The Conservatives are unchanged in Atlantic Canada (MOE +/- 14%) at 38%, followed by the Liberals at 31% (-3). The NDP is down four points to 18%, while the Greens are up seven to 13%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are up nine points to 65%, pushing the Liberals down six points to 16%. The NDP is up three to 14%. All of these changes are within the province's 10% MOE.

Finally, in the Prairies (MOE +/- 13%) the Conservatives are up one to 43%, while the Liberals are at 24% (-6) and the New Democrats are at 23% (+4).

You may notice that I am rounding the margins of error for the regional results. This is because Ipsos-Reid (like most others) is rounding out their polling results. It just seems simpler, because technically a 42% result in Ontario for the Conservatives might mean 41.5% or 42.4%, making the extra 0.3 in the province's 5.3% MOE somewhat irrelevant.

With the results of this poll, ThreeHundredEight would project 18 seats for the Conservatives in British Columbia, 28 seats in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 60 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 149. That is 20 more than were projected for Ipsos-Reid's last poll.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 34 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 77, 25 fewer than last time.

The Bloc Québécois would win 52 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats would win 11 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and three in Atlantic Canada for a total of 30, up 10 from last time.

Despite the 14-point national lead, the Conservatives do not reach the 155 mark needed for a majority. This might come as a surprise, but it shouldn't. In some regions of the country, the Conservatives are up against a ceiling. An improvement of three points in Ontario will not give the Conservatives more than nine seat gains, as projected for this poll. And note that, despite the overall increase in support nationwide, the party is still five points below their 2008 result in British Columbia, one point below in Quebec, and eight points below in the Prairies. To achieve their majority, the Conservatives cannot afford any losses in any part of the country.

Little change in Quebec in new Léger poll

A new Léger Marketing poll conducted for Le Devoir and the Montreal Gazette shows very little change in the provincial and federal voting intentions of Quebecers. But it appears that Liberals at both levels are losing clout in and around Montreal.Note that the provincial results are included below. Compared to Léger's last complete data set released in January, the Bloc Québécois has made a three-point gain in the province and now leads with 39%. The Liberals are up one to 20%, the New Democrats are steady at 19%, and the Conservatives have picked up one point and trail with 18%. The Greens have lost three points and are at only 3% in the province.

Léger uses an online panel for its polling, but their panel was randomly recruited by telephone. This sort of muddies the waters compared to other online panels that were not recruited in this way. But a random sample of 1,000 people would have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. That means that at the provincial level none of the parties have had a statistically significant change in support.

There has been some noteworthy movement in and around Montreal, however. There, where the MOE is about five points, the Bloc has gained six points and now leads with 37%, well ahead of the Liberals. They are at 20%, down seven points from last month. The NDP is up three to 19% while the Conservatives are steady at 15%, but a small gain among non-francophones for the Tories leads one to believe that the Conservatives may be making up some ground on the Liberals in the anglophone parts of Montreal. The gap between the two parties is now eight points among non-francophones, representing a five point loss for the Liberals (36%) and a two point gain for the Conservatives (28%).

Among francophones, there has been very little change. The Bloc still leads with 46% (+2), followed by the NDP at 19% (unchanged), the Liberals at 16% (+2), and the Conservatives at 15% (unchanged).

One of things that will be worth watching in Léger's next monthly report will be the change of vote, if any, in the Quebec City region. Will the recent announcement of the building of a new arena in the city without the federal government's help change anything? Currently, the Conservatives are leading with 34% (-1), while the Bloc is a close second at 29% (+1). The NDP is steady at 21% while the Liberals are up one to 11%.

Finally, in the rest of Quebec the Bloc leads with 43%, down one point. The Liberals are up nine points to 21%, a gain out-pacing the MOE of +/- 6%. The NDP is down two to 18%, while the Conservatives are up two to 16%.

This would result in 52 seats for the Bloc Québécois, 14 for the Liberals, seven for the Conservatives, and two for the New Democrats.

Léger asked respondents in which leader they placed their confidence. Gilles Duceppe came on top with 29% (35% of those who responded with a name). Jack Layton came second with 27% (32%), while Stephen Harper (15%/18%) and Michael Ignatieff (8%/10%) followed. This is an indication of the NDP's potential for growth in the province, while also showing how the Liberals are limping along on brand-name only.

Among non-francophones, Layton is still in front with 26%, followed by Harper (21%) and Ignatieff (10%). That bodes well for the Tories' chances in the West Island.

Now to the provincial scene, where talk of the fictitious François Legault party has warped things out of all recognition.At the provincial level, we see no changes outside of the MOE. The Parti Québécois is down two to 34%, the Liberals are down one to 28%, and the ADQ is up one to 15%. Québec Solidaire has dropped one point to 9% while the Greens are unchanged at 7%.

But the other parties are up three points to 7%. I find it unlikely that all of that vote will go to the Marxists-Leninists or the Indépendantistes. If we pared that down to a more reasonable 2%, and distributed the other 5% proportionately, we'd get 36% for the PQ, 29% for the PLQ, 16% for the ADQ, and 10% for QS.

Among the two solitudes, there is no change greater than the MOE. The PQ leads among francophones with 40% (-3), trailed by the Liberals at 20% (-1) and the ADQ at 17% (+2). Among non-francophone, the Liberals are unchanged at 64%, while the Greens are up three to 15%.

As at the federal level, the Liberals have suffered a noteworthy drop in and around Montreal. There, the PQ leads with 36%, up two points. The Liberals are down seven to 21%, while the Greens are up one to 10%.

In Quebec City, the ADQ has dropped three points but leads with 36%, virtually mirroring the Conservative support in the region. The PQ is unchanged at 28%, while the Liberals are up three to 22%.

And in the rest of Quebec, the PQ has dropped six points to 33%, while the Liberals are up five to 26%.

This poll would result in 72 seats for the Parti Québécois, 37 for the Liberals, 14 for the ADQ, and two for Québec Solidaire. Generally, what we've been seeing for months.

Only 19% of Quebecers are satisfied with the government, and only 17% see Jean Charest as the best person to be Premier. That number is bumped up to 27% when we take out the 37% who had no response. Pauline Marois is at 19% (30% of "decideds), while Amir Khadir of QS is at 13%/21%, tied with Gérard Deltell. Like the NDP, QS appears to have some significant room for growth in Quebec, but unlike the federal scene it appears that the main sovereigntist party could suffer.