Liberals projected to lose seats with new projection model

Well, it took some time to complete but it is finally done. The new projection model is up and running and ThreeHundredEight is now able to make riding-level projections for all 308 ridings in the country. When there is less going on, hopefully this week or next, I will post a full methodology with test results for the new projection model. But in the meantime, with polls showing such a huge shift in voting intentions, I couldn't let the projection of February 18 stand.

Note that you will always be able to click on the links to the right to see the riding-level projections. You can also see them at the bottom of this post.

ThreeHundredEight now projects if an election were held today that, with 38.1% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 152 seats, a gain of eight seats over the last projection of February 18, and a gain of nine seats over their current standing in the House of Commons.

With 27.7% of the vote, the Liberals are projected to win 73 seats, a drop of 19 from the last projection and a drop of four from their current crop of MPs in Ottawa.

With 9.9% of the national vote, the Bloc Québécois is projected to win 52 seats in Quebec, unchanged from February 18 but a gain of five compared to their current caucus.

With 15.5% of the vote, the New Democrats are projected to win 31 seats, a gain of 11 over the last projection but a loss of five overall.

With 7.4% of the vote, the Greens are not projected to win any seats, and no independents are projected to win.

It is very important to note that a lot of these gains and losses are due to the new projection model. The old projection model would have projected 148 Conservative, 86 Liberal, 52 Bloc, and 22 New Democratic seats. In other words, four of the Conservative gains are due to the model, as are nine of the NDP gains. Thirteen of the Liberal seat losses are due to the model change. The old model would have projected gains of four Conservative and two NDP seats, and a loss of six seats for the Liberals.

Obviously, the old model was harsh on the NDP to the benefit of the Liberals. It was not able to simulate accurately the regional strength of the NDP within each province. However, that is not to say that the old projection model was wrong. While I am more confident in the new model, in the end we will have to wait and see when the votes are counted whether the old or new model was more accurate.

Nationally, the Conservatives are up 1.1 points and the NDP 0.4 points. The Liberals are down 0.4 points, the Bloc is down 0.1 points, and the Greens are down 1.1 points.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have gained 1.9 points and lead with 40.3%. They are projected to win 22 seats, unchanged from February 18th. The Liberals are down 2.3 points to 23.7%, and three seats to seven. The NDP is up two points to 23.2% and three seats to seven. The Greens are down 1.7 points to 10.4%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are up 0.6 points to 61.4% and are now projected to win all 28 seats. The Liberals are up one point to 19.9%, and lose the seat they were projected to win. They are still very close in Edmonton Centre, however. The NDP is down 1.3 points to 9.4%, while the Greens are down 0.3 points to 7.5%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives have gained 4.9 points and lead with 51.5%. They are projected to win 22 seats, up one. The Liberals are down 2.8 points to 21.2%, followed by the NDP at 21.1% (+0.9). The NDP is projected to win four seats (+2) and the Liberals two (-3). The Greens are down 1.9 points to 5.6%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up 0.8 points to 41.2%, and are projected to win 56 seats, a gain of two. The Liberals are down 0.6 points to 34.6% and are projected to win 35 seats, down seven. The NDP is up 1.1 points to 15.3%, and is projected to win 15 seats, a gain of five. The Green Party is down 1.2 points to 7.8%.

The Bloc Québécois is up 0.4 points to 40.1%, and is still projected to win 52 seats. The Liberals are up 0.9 points to 21.3%, and are projected to win 13 seats, down one. The Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 19.2% and are projected to win nine seats, up one. The NDP is down one point to 12.7%, and is still projected to win one seat. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 5.7%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are up 2.8 points to 39%, followed by the Liberals at 36.3% (+0.5). The Conservatives are projected to win 13 seats, a gain of two. The Liberals are projected to win 15 seats, a loss of three. The NDP is down 1.5 points to 18%, but is up one seat to four in the region. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 6%.

In the North, the Conservatives are projected to win Nunavut and Western Arctic, while the Liberals are projected to win Yukon.

At the next projection update, I will identify the individual seats that will have shifted from one party to another.

Here are the full riding projections (click to expand):

West

Ontario

Quebec, Atlantic, North

Conservatives poised for majority in new Ipsos-Reid poll

The latest poll from Ipsos-Reid for Postmedia and Global TV is a humdinger. Normally, I wouldn't use such saucy language to discuss a poll, but it would appear to be appropriate in this case. The Conservatives have not only surpassed the magical 40% mark but have flown right by it, standing at 43% and a certain majority.

However, much of this Conservative gain could potentially be the result of a change in questioning method. And that's your anti-climax for the day.

Yes, compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll conducted between February 8 and 10, the Conservatives have gained four points. The Liberals have also improved, picking up two points to reach 27%. The New Democrats have taken the brunt of the Tory onslaught, and have dropped five points to only 13%.

The Bloc Québécois is up one point to 10%, while the Greens are down five points to 5% in this telephone survey.

Woah, what happened to the Greens? Good question! According to their press release, Ipsos-Reid has now opted not to prompt for the Green Party. Respondents who say they will vote for the Greens are recorded, but no longer is the Green Party listed along with the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, and Bloc. This is a major change, and is likely responsible for most of this Green slip.

But then where do their five points go? Clearly, they have not gone to the New Democrats. They also do not seem to have gone to the Liberals, who have only picked up two points. Potentially, three of those Green points have gone to the Conservatives, either directly or indirectly.

So what? Well, we don't really know whether prompting for the Green Party is more accurate than not prompting for the Green Party. One pollster I've talked to has told me that in 2008 their firm conducted their polls using both methods, and found the prompted polls to be more accurate. But it could have been a coincidence or luck. Either way, it casts a bit of a shadow on this poll for the Conservative result.

Otherwise, it is a stellar poll for them, though it would appear that only the NDP and Green drops are statistically significant.

One of the main sources of the Conservative gain seems to be among women. Though the gap between them and the Liberals in this demographic has only grown by two points, the Conservatives have increased their support among women from 34% to 41%, giving the party the rare feat (for them) of having almost equal support among both sexes.

Regionally, the Conservatives are leading in Ontario with 45% (+3), followed by the Liberals at 33% (+1). The NDP is down one point to 14%, while the Greens drop seven to 4%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up four points to 41%, followed by the Liberals at 27% (a statisically significant gain of 10 points). The Conservatives are down two to 19%, while the New Democrats cruelly fall from 15% to only 6% in the province.

The Conservatives are up nine points in British Columbia and lead with 48%, while the NDP is at 22% (-8) and the Liberals are at 21% (-2). The Greens have dropped three to 8%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives lead with 52% (+14), followed by the Liberals at 33% (+2) and the NDP at 12% (-6).

The Conservatives lead in Alberta and the Prairies with 68% and 59%, respectively. That's a 16-point gain for the Tories in the Prairies. The Liberals stand at 17% in both regions, while the New Democrats are at 17% in the Prairies.

ThreeHundredEight's projection model gives the Conservatives a majority government with the results of this poll. The Conservatives win 25 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in the Prairies, 59 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 164. That's a gain of 15 seats over the last projection for Ipsos-Reid.

The Liberals win three seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 32 in Ontario, 18 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 66, a drop of 11 seats.

The Bloc Québécois wins 49 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats win eight seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 15 in Ontario, none in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada for a total of 29 seats, a loss of one.

Note that the new projection model is completed, and that these projections were done at the riding level. As you can see at the top of the page, I will be updating the projection later today, with full riding details.

This is the sort of poll the Conservatives want to see - or do they? We've often seen the Tories drop after breaching the 155-seat mark. This is clearly a good poll for them. They are strong in every part of the country except Quebec, and even there they put in a respectable performance.

But this is a big number for the Conservatives. We will have to wait and see if other polls put the Tories in majority territory before we can start thinking that they are actually there. With the margin of error this Ipsos-Reid poll is well within the recent numbers we've seen from Abacus and Angus-Reid, but they are at the upper limit.