Strong Liberal results in poll, with or without Trudeau

A new poll from Léger Marketing shows very strong results for the Liberal Party of Canada, even without Justin Trudeau's name being mentioned. When he is added to the mix, the poll continues the trend of a big boost in Liberal fortunes, over-and-above the usual honeymoon that new leaders can usually expect to enjoy.

We don't often hear from Léger at the national level. The last coast-to-coast poll from the firm was released in December. The Conservatives slipped four points to 31% since that poll, putting them well within the range of where other polls have put the party since the beginning of February.

The Liberals picked up an enormous 12 points, however, putting them at 30% and only one point behind the Tories. The New Democrats managed 24%, a drop of six points and their worst result in any poll since the 2011 federal election campaign. Is this a fluke or a sign of things to come?

The Greens fell two points to 7%, putting them even with the Bloc Québécois. All of these changes in support would be outside the margin of error of two polls of this size with random samples.

These are remarkable numbers for the Liberals, but not altogether unusual. This is the third of the last four polls to show the Liberals at either 29% or 30% support. But to give them a six-point lead over the NDP is certainly a change of pace.

At the regional level, the Liberals were up throughout the country compared to Léger's December poll, with double-digit bumps in British Columbia, Alberta (+12 in both), Quebec (+11), and Ontario (+15). The poll actually puts the Liberals ahead in that last province, the first non-Nanos poll to do so since April 2011.

The numbers should be of great concern to both the Conservatives and NDP, as they come without a mention of Justin Trudeau's name. The numbers in Quebec are particularly problematic for the New Democrats, as this represents an 11-point drop from Léger's December poll, but also from their February poll of 1,024 Quebecers. Léger has generally given the NDP higher numbers in Quebec than their non-Quebec competitors, and that always suggested that the lower numbers recorded by Ontario-based firms might have been off the mark. For Léger to show such a poor result should be very worrying to the New Democrats.

Unusual numbers can generally be seen as outliers until proven otherwise, however, so hope is not lost for the NDP. We will have to see what CROP says in their next poll, which we should probably see before Léger reports again. It would be helpful, though, if CROP reports before Justin Trudeau becomes Liberal leader.

And this is why. Léger shows that under Trudeau, the Liberals surge to 37%, pushing the Conservatives down one point to 30% and the NDP down four points to 20%. This compares quite favourably to Léger's Trudeau poll in December, which put the Liberals and Tories even at 31% under his leadership and the NDP at 24%.

Regionally, Trudeau boosts the Liberals only slightly in the western provinces but pushes the party up by 10 points in Ontario and 15 points in Atlantic Canada. He puts the party narrowly ahead in Quebec as well (though, interestingly, the NDP's numbers improve slightly there).

But without Trudeau, the Liberals are still in a strong position and would be well-placed to form the Official Opposition.

With Léger's non-Trudeau numbers, the Liberals take 109 seats to 131 for the Conservatives, 55 for the New Democrats, 42 for the Bloc Québécois, and one for the Greens (all on the 338-seat map).

This makes it difficult for the Liberals and NDP to combine for a coalition government, however, as it puts them five seats short of a majority. The poor showing for the NDP in Quebec (and the small improvement for the Bloc) tips the balance and puts the opposition in the same awkward position of needing Bloc support as in 2008.

There is no such problem with Trudeau's numbers, however. His party takes 146 seats to only 124 for the Conservatives, 35 for the New Democrats, 32 for the Bloc, and one for the Greens. Together, Trudeau's Liberals and the NDP command 181 seats, more than the 169 needed for a majority.

But Trudeau's arrival makes things easier for the Conservatives in the west. Though they drop two points in British Columbia, they win 28 seats instead of 20 as the New Democrats take a big hit that the Liberals cannot turn into seats. They also win two more in the Prairies. Overall, the Conservatives win 10 more seats in the west while the Liberals only win one more and the NDP drops 11.

But the Liberals win their plurality in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada (as they used to). With 71 seats in Ontario, they replicate what the Conservatives did in 2011. They are not able to supplant the Bloc in Quebec, however, as the Liberals have trouble making gains outside of the Montreal area. Most of those battles are between the NDP and the Bloc, but the New Democrats have been hamstrung by Trudeau. 

It makes for a very different political landscape, one that seems to have been constantly transforming over the last two years. Can these hypothetical numbers be dismissed? It would be easier to do so if they were not so consistent. In 10 polls since the end of October from Forum, Angus-Reid, and Léger, the Conservatives have always registered between 29% and 33% against Trudeau, while the NDP has always been between 19% and 24% (and only as high as 22% since December). In seven of the polls, the Liberals under Trudeau have managed between 37% and 42%. 

Maybe this will all disappear once Trudeau actually becomes leader, but he has been increasingly seen as the obvious winner for several months now and he has been getting plenty of media coverage. Things should not change too much once it becomes official, at least at first. But where will things go after that?

Incentive for Horwath to defeat government drops

Over the long weekend, a new Forum poll was published by The Toronto Star, showing that the race in Ontario remains close. But the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals appear to be widening the gap between themselves and the New Democrats, decreasing the incentive Andrea Horwath might have had to defeat Kathleen Wynne's minority government.

Methodological note: the report from Forum Research is the usual, with plenty of cross-tabs but lacking unweighted sample data. Forum is not alone in this, as only Abacus Data and Ipsos-Reid routinely release unweighted data with their polls. Some other pollsters release the data on request, but in general disclosure is rather limited in Canada.

That makes it perhaps unfair to single out Forum, but they are one of the most active firms and IVR polling is, generally speaking, more susceptible to distorted sampling. We've seen this before - throughout the Quebec election campaign, telephone and online pollsters Léger Marketing and CROP had more stable results than Forum's IVR numbers, which varied more widely. That makes it all the more necessary to have this unweighted data, to help determine whether any fluctuations are real or not. But other firms need to up their disclosure as well. Even some of the most respected polling firms in Canada fail to release data as basic as regional sample sizes.

Forum was last in the field provincially between Feb. 26 and Mar. 1. Since then, there have been no statistically significant changes in support. The PCs picked up three points to reach 35%, the Liberals increased one to 33%, and the NDP was down three to 26%.

The trend is important, however, as the gap is widening between the two larger parties and the New Democrats. And the NDP has placed third in six of the seven polls that have been released since Wynne became Liberal leader.

There is a hidden advantage in these numbers for the Tories, as they were ahead by six points or more among Ontarians aged 45 and older. There is still a gender gap, however, as the PCs were first among men (by a wide margin) but third among women.

Regionally, the Progressive Conservatives led in eastern Ontario with 45% (+13), followed by the OLP at 27% and the NDP at 20% (-11). The Tories were also ahead in the 905 area code (38% to 32% for the OLP and 25% for the NDP) and in southwestern Ontario (38% to 30% for the NDP and 27% for the OLP).

The Liberals led in Toronto with 46% support, well ahead of the PCs at 25% and the NDP at 24%. The Liberals were also narrowly ahead in northern Ontario, with 33% to 30% apiece for the Tories and NDP (note that in Forum's poll, northern Ontario stretches all the way south to Lake Simcoe).

With these regional numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would win 47 seats to 40 for the Liberals and 20 for the New Democrats.

Forum's seat projection model gives the Liberals the plurality of seats (they lose three) while the NDP drops to only 14, despite being several points up on their 2011 election result. Regional distribution cannot be blamed, as the NDP improved upon their 2011 numbers in every region except Toronto, where the Liberals were also down and the PCs were up (but uselessly so). I don't understand how it is possible for them to have these sorts of numbers, and if the Star knows they should tell the rest of us. With these counter-intuitive results, they probably shouldn't publish them if they don't know.

The personal approval ratings for the three leaders look very good for Wynne and Horwath, but deceptively so. Wynne's approval rating was up six points to 40%, while her disapproval rating stood at 34%. Horwath's approval rating was steady at 44%, but her disapproval rating increased by five points to 30% - its highest level since June 2012. But compared to Tim Hudak's numbers, Wynne and Horwath are doing very well. Hudak's approval rating is only 27%, with a disapproval rating of 52%.

Why these numbers are deceptive, though, is due to the other questions Forum asked. When it comes to which leader shares respondents' personal values, Hudak and Horwath tied for 22% with Wynne at 21%. On who respects democracy, Horwath narrowly edged out Hudak with 22% to 20%, with Wynne at 18%. And on who is best able to handle the economy, Hudak was ahead of Wynne with 24% to 23%. Horwath was well behind at 15%.

This would seem to suggest that while Ontarians like Wynne and Horwath a lot more than Hudak, they don't consider them better leaders. That is a silver lining for Hudak, particularly his good showing on the economy.

But the PCs have made it clear they want to defeat the government, so Hudak might not be looking for a silver lining. The power to send Ontarians to the polls is in Horwath's hands, and with these numbers she has little incentive to do so.