What effect will the debates have on the race?

How the debate went for the three leaders depends on who you ask, with Tim Hudak, Andrea Horwath, and Kathleen Wynne all getting various shades of passing and failing grades from the pundits. For my part, I thought all three did moderately well. But what do voters think? The answer might depend on what you ask.

But first, the projection has been updated with the latest numbers from EKOS Research and Nanos Research. EKOS is starting their daily rolling poll so we should have new numbers to chew on every day. This should provide a bit of an anchor to the projection, preventing it from swinging too wildly from one day to the next as new data is entered.

The projection now pegs the Liberals to have increased their edge, with a 1.1-point gain to 37.8% (or between 36% and 42%). The PCs slipped 1.7 points to 33.8% (or between 32% and 37%), while the New Democrats were unchanged at 20.3% (or between 19% and 22%). The Greens increased by 0.7 points to 7% (or between 5% and 9%).

In terms of seats, the Liberals were up four to 51 (or between 46 and 56), while the PCs were down two to 41 (or between 35 and 44). This means that the potential for a Liberal majority has increased (though it is still less likely than a minority) and the PCs and Liberals no longer overlap. The likely projection, with pre-debate information, points only to a Liberal victory. But the maximum and minimum ranges still make the election a bit of a toss-up.

The New Democrats were down two seats to 15 (or between 13 and 19), while the Greens are now on the board with a likely range of zero to one seat. But before my Green readers get too excited, this will probably disappear as soon as EKOS implements its likely voter model.

The chart above, which represents each day a poll was in the field, the confidence intervals of those polls, and the trend line for each individual pollster, still suggests the Liberals are on the upswing, while the PCs and NDP remain relatively stagnant. It will be interesting to see if the trends will shift now that the debate is over.

Note that the EKOS poll was out of the field on June 2, the day before the debate, and the Nanos survey is a week old. We won't start seeing the effects of the debate until at least today, but not fully until later in the week or after the weekend.

Also note that Forum Research did release some voting intentions numbers in their post-debate poll from last night, but they only surveyed people who watched the debate, and so the poll is not a normal poll that can be added to the model (people who did not watch the debate will vote too).

Let's quickly go over the EKOS and Nanos polls before getting to the debate numbers. EKOS is doing a rolling poll now, dropping one day from the sample as a new day is added.

The latest rolling poll from EKOS gives the Liberals 38.8% (+0.3 from the previous rolling sample), the Tories 30.5% (-3.2), and the NDP 17.8% (+0.9). The Liberals led in the GTA and the Tories in the southwest and east. In the north, the Liberals took the lead as the PCs fell 15 points. An odd result in a daily sample - June 2 must have been a horrid day for the Tories in the north, or more likely a sampling anomaly.

The Nanos poll added to the model was conducted between May 22-26, and so is quite dated by now. It put the Liberals at 37.7%, the Tories at 31.2%, and the NDP at 23.7%. Those numbers were quite similar to the polls being done by EKOS and Abacus at the time.

The debate

Two polls were conducted just after the debate was over: one by Ipsos Reid for CTV and CP24, surveying 1,765 Ontarians online who watched the debate, and the other by Forum Research for the Toronto Star, surveying via IVR 307 Ontarians who watched the debate. They came up with broadly similar results.

On who won the debate, Ipsos gave it to Hudak with 36%, followed by Wynne at 27% and Horwath at 26%. Forum also gave it to Hudak with 33% to 28% for Wynne and 20% for Horwath. Considering the margins of error those are virtually identical.

Forum asked people how they intended to vote before the debate and if that changed after the debate. They found gains for both the PCs (four points) and the Liberals (three points), with drops by the NDP (three points) and the Greens (four points). If the debate made the race more of a two-horse contest, this makes sense.

Ipsos asked whether the debate improved or worsened the opinion they held for the leaders. It was a mixed bag for Hudak, with 40% saying it improved their opinion of him and 34% saying it worsened it. It was a worse night for Wynne, with only 24% improving their opinion and 43% worsening it. By this measure, Horwath had the best performance with 54% saying it improved their opinion of her and just 15% saying it worsened it. However, only 13% of respondents said the debate changed their mind when it came to who they would vote for.

Who was the most likable? Forum's respondents said it was Horwath by a whisker, at 33% to 29% for Wynne and 28% for Hudak. Ipsos gave it to Horwath by a much larger margin, with 43% to 26% for Wynne and 25% for Hudak. Who made the best points and had the best ideas and policies? Both Ipsos and Forum gave that to Hudak.

But Forum asked one question that was quite interesting, in terms of whether respondents believed the leaders. Was Wynne's promise of an Ontario retirement plan believable? 43% said yes, 49% said no. What about Horwath's promise to lower auto insurance rates? 41% thought it was believable, 50% thought it wasn't. And Hudak's Million Jobs Plan? Just 27% thought it was believable, against 69% who thought it was not. As Hudak spent much of the night talking about his plan, that could be problematic.

On the other hand, when Ipsos asked respondents who was best on various issues, Hudak topped the list on the economy, taxes, debt/deficit reduction, and accountability. Horwath was favoured on health care, the environment, and social services. Wynne placed in the middle of the pack on most of these issues, perhaps understandably for a nominally centrist party. But it does suggest that the Liberals are lacking an issue that works for them.

Based on all of these debate numbers, what can we take from it? It does seem that Hudak did do himself well, and stands to benefit from his performance. Horwath did not impose herself very forcefully (only 22% told Ipsos she sounded and acted like a premier, compared to 37% for both Hudak and Wynne), but she was likable. And Wynne did alright with a middling performance. For the incumbent, that may be enough. But we will see in the coming days if Hudak has indeed improved how the electorate sees him and his party.

Two new polls give Ontario Liberals the lead

After two polls at the end of last week gave a narrow lead to the Progressive Conservatives (or a wide one, if only looking at likely voters), the two latest polls now give the Liberals a lead, and a somewhat wider one than the Tories had previously enjoyed. It may be confusing, but this is what a close race with a disengaged electorate looks like.

The projection has now swung marginally in favour of the Liberals, with a 4.6-point gain to 36.7% support (or between 35% and 40%). The PCs dropped 2.8 points to 35.5% (or between 34% and 39%), while the New Democrats are down 3.3 points to 20.3% (or between 19% and 22%). Support for the Greens stands at 6.3%, or between 5% and 8%.

The Liberals have also moved ahead in the seat count, with a 10-seat gain to 47, or between 41 and 54. The PCs slipped six seats to 43 (or between 37 and 48) while the NDP was down four seats to 17 (or between 14 and 21). The likely projection is thus a minority Liberal government, though a majority is just possible and a PC plurality is also in the cards. It remains very close, and even small variations in support can swing a few seats.

The chart above, which represents each day a poll was in the field, the confidence intervals of those polls, and the trend lines of each individual pollster, suggests the Liberals may be on the upswing at this stage of the campaign, while the Tories, after a mid-point slump, have settled in. The NDP could be holding steady or dropping.

Though the poll-to-poll shift from Abacus's last survey of May 21-24 is within the margin of error (of a probabilistic sample of similar size), the trendlines are moving towards the Liberals. They were up three points to 37%, the second consecutive poll from Abacus in which the Liberals have been picking up steam. Both the Tories and NDP have been dropping in two consecutive polls, this time down two points to 30% for the PCs and one point to 24% for the NDP.

The Greens had 7% support, up one point, while undecideds were down two points to 13%.

Among likely voters, the Liberals were up one point to 37% and the PCs were up two to 35%. The NDP fell two points to 22%. The Tories have been wobbling back and forth among likely voters in Abacus's three polls, but the Liberals have been moving up and the NDP down.

The only regional shift worth noting was a 10-point gain for the Liberals in Toronto, where they led with 49%. They were also in front in the GTA/Hamilton-Niagara region with 35%, and were tied with the PCs in eastern Ontario with 38%. The PCs were narrowly ahead in the southwest with 31%, while the NDP was well ahead in the north with 47%.

The Abacus poll had a few other extra tidbits that were interesting. When asked who they expect to win, 32% of Ontarians picked the Liberals, while just 22% chose the PCs and 7% the NDP (39% said they did not know). The Liberals do seem to be winning the swing vote. Among three-way swing voters, the Liberals were ahead with 45% to 20% for the PCs and 18% for the NDP. Among OLP/PC swing voters, the Liberals led with 52% to 40%, while among OLP/NDP swing voters the Liberals were in front with 57% to 34%. The PCs remain ahead among PC/NDP swing voters, with 62% to 35% for the NDP.

The EKOS poll also pointed to a Liberal victory, with the party up 2.7 points to 38.5% from the last survey. The PCs were down 3.7 points to 33.7%, while the NDP was down 3.5 points to just 16.9%, the fourth consecutive drop in EKOS's polling. That is a very low score for the NDP, however, and must be at the low end of the margin of error.

The Greens were down 4.1 points to 7.8%, while 18% of Ontarians said they were undecided.

None of these shifts were statistically significant, though the sustained weakening of the NDP is worth noting.

EKOS is supposed to publish its likely voter estimates today, and will be reporting on a daily basis going forward. We can probably expect the likely voter numbers to boost the PCs, as the margin between the two parties shrank to one point among 45-64 year olds (36% to 35%) and flipped to a four-point edge for the Tories among voters 65 or older (40% to 36%).

The only regional shift outside the margin of error was in southwest Ontario, where the Tories were up 9.6 points to 39.6% and the NDP was down 10.2 points to 11.2%. That seems like a very anomalous result, as the southwest has been one of the strongest polling areas for the NDP. Also, it puts them just behind the Greens, and Abacus (using the same definition for the region and polling over most of the same period) put the three parties in a tie with around 30% support.

Elsewhere, the Liberals led with 47% in Toronto and 41% in the GTA suburbs, while the Tories were ahead in eastern Ontario with 41% and the north/central part of the province with 39%.

The Abacus and EKOS polls were quite similar in Toronto, the other region where their definitions are identical. The numbers themselves were broadly the same, considering the sample size, at 47% to 49% for the OLP, 24% to 25% for the PCs, and 17% to 20% for the NDP. The trends were also heading in the same direction, with the Liberals gaining and both the NDP and PCs slipping.

So, the stage is set for tonight's debate. Both Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak have a lot riding on it, as with the race as close as it is a good or bad performance could break the deadlock. For Andrea Horwath, she needs to finally build some momentum as only nine days remain before the vote.