And the pendulum swings back again

The see-sawing of the polls is causing a bit of whiplash, but we should beware not to get too caught up in how the numbers are changing from one poll to the next. The new poll by Forum Research for the Toronto Star is a good example of that, as they now show the Liberals ahead of the Progressive Conservatives.

The projection has accordingly swung violently back to a tie in the seat count and a near-tie in the vote projection. This is what happens when there are spaces of three days between individual polls being conducted: the weight of the previous poll is automatically reduced by almost three-quarters. That may sound like a lot, but this sort of weighting has proven its worth time and time again.

The PCs continue to hold the lead in voting intentions, however, with 36.5% support (or between 35% and 40%). The Liberals follow closely behind with 35.7% (or between 34% and 39%), while the New Democrats trail in third with 22.4% (or between 21% and 24%).

(As always, you can find the detailed regional breakdowns, riding projections, and tracking charts by clicking on the chart at the top of this page, or clicking here.)

In terms of seats, the PCs and Liberals are back in a tie with 43 apiece, though the Liberal range (36 to 53 seats) is slightly better than the Tories' range (34 to 52 seats). The New Democrats are back to 21 seats, or between 17 and 23.

The Forum poll added to the projection is, again, not without its issues. The sample is just as skewed as it was last week, with 66% of the sample 55 or older and just 6% of it 34 or younger. The appropriate proportions, if this raw sample was representative, would be closer to 36% and 26%, respectively. When Forum increases the weight of the small sample of younger voters (which gave the Liberals a wide lead over the Tories, with the NDP in a distant third), there is the potential that the errors that crept in due to the small sample size become magnified.

There is also the issue with the seat projection that Forum reports: 68 seats for the Liberals, 26 seats for the Tories, and 13 seats for the NDP. In other words, with the results of the election virtually identical to the last one in 2011, the Liberals are able to win 15 more seats, 11 coming from the Tories and four from the NDP. That is simply not plausible.

When I plug Forum's regional numbers into my model - which uses the exact same regional definitions as Forum - I instead get 48 seats for the Liberals, 39 for the Tories, and 20 for the New Democrats. If I was a betting man, I'd most definitely bet that mine would be closer than Forum's. Most observers of Ontario politics would do the same, I'm sure.

But let's look at the poll itself. Forum was last in the field on May 2-3. Since then, the Liberals picked up five points to move into the lead with 38%, with the PCs dropping three points to 35%. The NDP and Greens each slipped one point to 21% and 5%, respectively.

The jump in support for the Liberals is outside the margin of error, which Forum chalks up largely to Tim Hudak's promise to cut 100,000 jobs in the public service. Their poll reported that just 26% of respondents thought that was a good idea.

The Liberals have picked up support in two consecutive Forum polls now, while the New Democrats have dropped in four. That is a trend worth keeping an eye on, though it should be pointed out that Ipsos Reid, for example, has shown the exact opposite and the Innovative Research Group has shown Liberal stability over the same period.

The Tories do seem to have a turnout advantage, but perhaps not to the extent suggested by other recent polls. The PCs were ahead 47% to 34% among voters aged 65 and older, but the Liberals led among voters between the ages of 55 and 64, by a margin of 39% to 35%.

Kathleen Wynne has seen an uptick in her personal approval ratings, jumping four points to 38%. This came primarily from voters who formed an opinion of the Liberal leader, as the number of 'don't knows' fell from 15% to 12%. She was also up four points on who would make the best premier, to 32%.

Hudak's approval rating slipped to 23%, but his disapproval rating soared by eight points to 59%. This was, again, due to a drop in 'don't knows', from 23% to 17%, while 22% of respondents said Hudak would make the best premier (unchanged).

Andrea Horwath's numbers were stable, with an approval rating of 35% and a disapproval rating of 43% (the lowest of the three, below Wynne's 50%). Just 15% said she'd make the best premier.

At the regional level, the Liberals seem to have made significant gains in the 905 area code and the southwestern part of the province. In the 905, the Liberals jumped nine points to 45%, followed by the Tories at 29% (down nine points) and the NDP at 21%. In southwest Ontario, the PCs still led with 39%, but the Liberals were up eight points to 30%. The NDP was in third at 20%.

The Liberals led in Toronto with 39% to 32% for the Tories and 24% for the NDP, while they were narrowly ahead in northern Ontario with 37% to 36% for the PCs and 22% for the NDP.

The Tories led in eastern Ontario with 45%, followed by the Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 15% (down eight points).

With the polls unable to agree on the province wide tally, we really do need to focus on the trends from one poll to the next from the same pollsters. Innovative and Ipsos are, so far, showing stability in the race. Forum is recording a move to the Liberals, in the short term at the expense of the PCs but over the last few months at the expense of the NDP. We will have to see if the other firms corroborate these trends, whether or not they show the same topline numbers. At this point, though, the best we can say is that the race remains a toss-up - primarily because we just don't know any better.

Will turnout give the PCs a majority?

The poll that hit the wires on Friday night was within the norm of what we have been seeing in the polls lately. Depending on the survey, either the Liberals or the Tories hold a lead with the NDP in third. With the six-point advantage awarded to the PCs by Ipsos Reid in a survey for CTV News and CP24, the poll was not unusual. But it is in Ipsos's estimate of likely voter support - the only current attempt to make such a measurement - that the PCs move ahead significantly.

As the projection model is designed to replicate the likely outcome of the election, likely voter tallies are preferred when they are available during an election campaign. Accordingly, the 14-point lead recorded by Ipsos for the Tories among likely voters has made the projection swing wildly in their favour.

The PCs are now projected to have 39.6% support (or between 38% and 43%), followed by the Liberals at 31.1% (or between 30% and 34%) and the New Democrats at 25.3% (or between 23% and 27%). This gives the Tories a slim majority of 55 seats (54 are needed), with their likely range standing at between 43 and 63 seats.

The Liberals are now projected to take 28 seats, or between 21 and 42, while the NDP is at 24 seats (or between 19 and 26). In other words, if an election were held today the Tories would likely win at least a plurality, with the Liberals having the inside edge on the Official Opposition role in a tight race with the NDP.

This is a big swing in the projection. There is a cap on how much weight a single poll can carry in any projection update (66.7%), and the Ipsos poll falls short of that. But their attempt to measure how likely respondents are to turn out to the polls is absolutely vital - particularly in a polling context where no two polls seem to agree.

Ipsos was last in the field on April 15-17, and there has been very little change since then. The Tories were steady at 37% support among all eligible voters, with the Liberals down one point to 31% and the NDP up one point to 28%. Another 4% said they would vote for a different party (including the Greens), while 16% were undecided (a drop of four points).

Among likely voters, there was even less change. This adds some weight to Ipsos's findings, as these numbers have been consistent: 42% for the PCs, 28% for the Liberals, and 27% for the NDP.

Turnout could be an election-winning factor in the upcoming election, particularly if it is as anemic as it was in 2011. The Tories appear to have a crushing advantage in this regard. Among all Ontarians aged 55 or older (the cohort most likely to tramp out to the polls), the PC lead expanded to 51% against 24% for the Liberals and 23% for the NDP. That is enormous.

There were few major shifts at the regional level, with the Progressive Conservatives leading in eastern Ontario (50% to 34% for the OLP), the portion of the GTA in the 905 area code (45% to 29% for the OLP), and central Ontario (39% to 31% for the OLP). That area is defined by Ipsos, roughly, as the part of the province between the GTA and the north.

The Liberals led only in Toronto, with 45% to 26% for the PCs, while the NDP led in northern Ontario (45% to 27% for the PCs) and was narrowly ahead in the southwest (38% to 36% for the PCs). In Ipsos's estimation, the southwest includes the Hamilton/Niagara regions. The NDP has jumped 11 points here since mid-April.

On who would make the best premier, Tim Hudak led the way with 34%, followed by Andrea Horwath at 29% and Kathleen Wynne at 28%. The numbers were identical for Horwath and Wynne among likely voters, but increased to 38% for Hudak.

It is difficult to know what to make of all the polls that have been coming out since there has been little consensus. But let's see what other surveys show in the coming days. The trends have - so far - pointed to stability at the very least.

Riding polls

Two riding polls were also added to the projection. They were both conducted by Oracle Research and done for the northern ridings of Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury. The two polls were conducted on May 1-4 via telephone, surveying 450 people in each riding. Both suggested that, since the 2011 election, the Liberals have taken a step backwards.

In Sault Ste. Marie, the Liberals remained ahead with 43% support to 32% for the NDP, while the Tories were at 18%. This suggests a swing since 2011 from the Liberals to the Tories. It was the same situation in Sudbury, where it resulted in an NDP lead with 42% to 35% for the Liberals and 20% for the PCs. Before adding this poll to the projection, the Liberals were favoured in Sault Ste. Marie and the NDP in Sudbury. The only difference has been a tightening of the projected margin.