Final Newfoundland and Labrador projection: Liberal majority

The Liberals under Dwight Ball should be elected with a majority government in today's provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador, with Paul Davis's Progressive Conservatives most likely to form the Official Opposition. The New Democrats under Earle McCurdy should be the third party in the House of Assembly.

The Liberals are projected to take between 53.5% and 60.8% of the vote, with 56.3% being the precise projection. At the maximum and minimum ranges (the most appropriate measure in a province with such small constituencies), the party is projected to win between 25 and 36 seats, more than enough to put it over the threshold of 20 seats required for a majority government.

The PCs are projected to take between 26.7% and 30.9% of the vote, or 28.1% more precisely. The Tories are projected to win between three and 13 seats.

The New Democrats are projected to win between 13.9% and 16.5% of the vote, awarding them between one and six seats.

In the broad strokes, the polls have been generally consistent in that they have pointed to a majority government for the Liberals, the PCs in second, and the NDP in third. But they have been less consistent in terms of the size of the Liberal lead over the Tories.

Early polling in the campaign was more consistent, giving the Liberals between 65% and 74% of the vote, against 17% to 21% for the Tories and 9% to 15% for the NDP.

But polling done in the later part of the campaign has been less consistent, with the Liberals ranging between 52% and 67%, the PCs between 22% and 31%, and the NDP between 10% and 19%.

Forum has been the biggest source of disagreement, after showing almost identical numbers to Abacus's first poll of the campaign. Forum's two polls done on Nov. 24 and Nov. 29, the two most recent polls of the campaign and the only two done entirely after the final leaders' debate on the CBC, have put the Liberals at either 52% or 54% and the PCs at either 29% or 31%, while the two last polls from Abacus and CRA have pegged the Liberals at either 64% or 67% and the PCs at 22%.

The Forum poll of Nov. 24 was not weighted regionally, with an over-weighting for responses on the Avalon Peninsula. But the effect was negligible, by my calculations expanding the Liberals' lead from 23 points to 25 points. The last poll was weighted regionally, however.

We'll see if Forum or Abacus/CRA is on the mark, though in a campaign where the Liberals are leading by such a wide margin and the PCs are so unpopular we might expect Forum's IVR polling to get somewhat more honest responses. The difference could be that shy Tory effect, or the idea that the Liberals need an opposition, one that has only taken hold in the last days of the campaign. Or it could be that Forum is wrong. We'll see soon enough.

It does make a big difference in the potential outcomes. The chart below shows what the model would be projecting if it was only taking into account each individual poll.

As you can see, Forum's polls still give the Liberals a majority but a much smaller one. The polls from Abacus and CRA would deliver a landslide, with the maximum ranges topping out at 38 seats with Abacus and 40 seats (all of them) with CRA.

It will be interesting to see what the results will be tonight. It is a difficult election to predict down to the seat level, with a limited number of polls having been done in the final week and the potential for local factors and candidates to be hugely important. And what impact will the seeming inevitability of the Liberal victory have on turnout? Lots of potential for some surprises — but just around the edges. Anything but a Liberal majority would be a shock.

For the record

At an event put on by the MRIA last week, four pollsters went over what they saw happening in the last federal election campaign.

According to this report by iPolitics, Darrell Bricker of Ipsos Reid was quite critical of the work done by polling aggregators, such as myself and Barry Kay of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (who was partnered with Global News, Ipsos Reid's media partner). He said:

“I would argue, quite frankly, that these models are as likely to maximize error by putting polls together as they are to minimize it…There’s work to do here and there’s value associated with doing this. But it’s not happening well right now…Sorry, CBC.”

Bricker may very well have a point. Aggregation can certainly be done better, and I and others are always working towards improving it.

But for the record, the error in Ipsos Reid's final poll totaled 1.2 points per party, compared to 1.3 points per party for ThreeHundredEight.com and the CBC Poll Tracker. Hardly a case of maximizing error. And the aggregation out-performed Ipsos Reid at the regional level in British Columbia, the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Ipsos Reid only did better than ThreeHundredEight.com in Alberta.

Ipsos Reid did out-perform ThreeHundredEight.com in the 2011 federal election campaign. But since then, when changes were made to the aggregation model, ThreeHundredEight.com has out-performed Ipsos Reid in the provincial campaigns in Ontario in 2011 and 2014, in British Columbia in 2013, in Quebec in 2014, and in Alberta in 2015, as well as in the municipal election in Toronto in 2014.

More broadly, ThreeHundredEight.com's aggregation has out-performed the polls in most elections. This site has had a smaller average per party error than the average error of all the pollsters in the field for 15 consecutive federal, provincial, and municipal campaigns, and 16 of 18 campaigns overall.

Aggregation is a way to minimize error in the vast majority of cases.

In terms of seat projections, there is certainly more work to be done and I have already taken some steps to address some of the issues with the model. But I should also take this opportunity to point out that the model itself, divorced from how the polls do, has identified the potential winners in 90% of ridings, and its error in the more narrow likely ranges has been four seats or less — in total, all parties combined — in 12 of 14 elections where ranges were given.

Bricker is right to point out the amount of polling data that Nate Silver has to work with. Having that much data would certainly make things a lot easier. But our first-past-the-post system and multi-party democracy is also much more complicated. This was shown in 2010 when Silver had just as much trouble as everyone else in projecting the outcome of the election in the U.K. It happened again this year when FiveThirtyEight affiliated itself with a British outfit.

American elections, with their two parties and, at the presidential and Senate levels, very big jurisdictions, are much more predictable. In this past election, the Liberals jumped 20 points and the Conservatives dropped eight from the previous vote. The last time there was a change of government in the United States, the swing between the Republicans and the Democrats was just five points. Almost half of the seats on offer changed hands in the 2015 Canadian federal election. In the 2012 U.S. presidential election, only two states out of 50 changed hands.

There will always be elections that for one reason or another are very difficult to predict without making unreasonable assumptions or leaps, and the 2015 federal election campaign was one of them. Rather than see that as a reason to abandon everything, this unpredictability is something fascinating that tells us a lot about what happened. That's part of the process — experiments that go wrong can be just as informative as those that go right.