Satisfaction with Trudeau remains high; Manitoba NDP in third

Nanos's weekly 'best prime minister' tracking continues to wobble back and forth, with Justin Trudeau now back up to 53.1%, compared to 12.7% for Tom Mulcair and 11.3% for Rona Ambrose. Early days, of course, but that wobble seems to only be happening for Trudeau. Mulcair is holding steady but Ambrose has yet to experience her numbers rising from one week to the next.

Elizabeth May had 5.1% and Rhéal Fortin had 1.2%.

More relevant poll than who would be the best person for a job that Trudeau has for the next four years is a Nanos survey asking about Canadians' satisfaction with what the Trudeau government has been doing. The results are good for the Liberals: 67% of Canadians are satisfied or somewhat satisfied with what the Trudeau government has done so far. Just 28% were dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied.

Satisfaction was highest in Atlantic Canada (79%) and British Columbia (74%), and was lowest in Alberta and the Prairies (57%).

Manitoba NDP drops to third place

Greg Selinger's New Democrats got a lump of coal on Boxing Day when the Winnipeg Free Press published the latest results from Probe Research. The numbers were ugly.

The PCs, who have been holding steady pretty much since the last election, were leading with 43%, followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at just 22%. Those are the best and worst numbers for the Liberals and NDP respectively for a very long time — Probe Research, operating for the last two decades, has never had the NDP in third.

And it gets worse from there. The NDP is trailing in Winnipeg with 29% to 35% for the Tories (the Liberals also have 29%). Only in the core part of Winnipeg does the NDP have a lead. Everywhere else around the city the PCs are in front, and in most parts it is the Liberals that are in second.

The PCs also look set to virtually sweep the area outside of Winnipeg (53% to 29% for the Liberals and 13% for the NDP).

So things are looking good for the PCs in the upcoming April election. Coupled with Brad Wall's likely victory in neighbouring Saskatchewan in that province's April election, right-of-centre parties might have their first victories in three years in 2016. I wrote about what could be a fleeting conservative comeback for the CBC today.

Ontario PCs narrowly lead unpopular Wynne; plus a little Christmas cheer

A new poll from Forum Research and the Toronto Star shows that the Progressive Conservatives under Patrick Brown enjoy a narrow lead over the Ontario Liberals, despite Kathleen Wynne's disapproval ratings being sky-high.

The poll (only the Star report is online at the moment) gave the Tories 34% and the Liberals 31%, virtually unchanged from the 36% to 30% spread that Forum recorded in early November. The New Democrats had 26%, also unchanged from that previous poll.

Brown seems to have a profile problem. He has a net positive approval rating at 25% approval to 24% disapproval, but 51% of Ontarians still don't have an opinion of him. That is a lot of people to impress — or repel.

Wynne has an approval rating of just 23%, with 61% disapproving of her performance as premier.

Andrea Horwath of the NDP had a 40% approval rating and 26% disapproval rating.

It is a problem for the PCs when they are not doing better against such an unpopular premier. A similar situation in Manitoba is taking place, but the numbers are completely different. In Manitoba, the New Democrats have been in power since 1999 though the premier, Greg Selinger, is relatively new. He is deeply unpopular and trailing in the polls by about 20 points.

In Ontario, the Liberals have been in power since 2003, though Wynne is a relatively fresh face. She is also unpopular. But she is trailing in the polls by just three points.

Twas the night before Christmas on Parliament Hill

I deal with numbers on a daily basis, but for this holiday season I thought I'd try my hand with words. Here's my rendition (along with a dramatic reading!) of "A Visit from St. Nicholas", adapted for the Ottawa bubble.

Happy holidays!