A new poll has been posted on the Harris-Decima site concerning Canadians' views of the healthcare system. Do you remember that issue? It was tops for Canadians before the economic downturn.
The first question in the poll simply asks whether the system works very well/fairly well or not very well/not well at all. Overall, 70% of Canadians said that it works well and 28% said not well. At 77%, Ontario and the Prairies feel it works best. At 52%, Quebecers are least likely to think it works well. But, it is still a majority opinion.
Harris-Decima breaks opinions down by party as well, which is why I wanted to post about it. Those who feel the healthcare system works best are Liberals, at 76%. Surprisingly, Conservatives are next at 73%. The idea that Conservatives are most critical of the system isn't backed up by this poll. Not surprisingly, Bloc Quebecois supporters are least likely to say the system works well, with only 51% saying it does. Next least likely are NDP supporters, nevertheless still at 65% saying it works well. Bottom line: Canadians like the healthcare system. That, in and of itself, is the most surprising thing to come from this poll.
The second question asked people whether they thought the Canadian or American system was superior. Only 8% chose the American to 82% who chose the Canadian. That fits what is generally thought to be the case, that Canadians are highly critical of the American way of delivering medical service. Quebec, again, bucks the trend with 19% choosing the US system to 69% choosing the Canadian.
By party, Bloc supporters choose the US system the most, at 18%. Next are the Conservatives, at 12%. Only 6% of Green and Liberal supporters believe the American system is better, while a whopping 1% of NDP supporters agree.
The last question asked whether the system needs more public coverage, has the right balance, or needs more fees (more pay-per-use care). This is a useful question as it tracks support of a social safety net vs. privatisation. Somewhat surprisingly, 55% of Canadians believe the system should be more public while only 12% want more privatisation. 27% say things are fine the way they are. Atlantic Canada, at 64%, is the biggest supporter of a deeper nationalised healthcare system. At 16%, Quebec is most supportive of more privatisation.
By party, the NDP is by far most supportive of more public care: 73%. This makes sense, as the NDP is a socialist or social democratic party. Next is the Greens with 58%, the Liberals at 55%, the Tories at 53%, and the Bloc at 47%. It is interesting to note that a majority of Conservative supporters are nevertheless supportive of a more expansive welfare system.
It is less surprising to see that Conservative supporters are most in favour of more privatisation. However, it is still a very small number, at 16%. The Bloc is next at 13%, the Liberals and Greens are at 10%, and the NDP at 4%.
It should be noted that on this issue the Greens and Liberals are very similar. Perhaps this is a demonstration that the Green Party is far more centrist than what is imagined. The across-the-board Bloc criticism of the healthcare system has more to do with the troubled state of the system in Quebec than an ideological belief. The Bloc is actually quite supportive of the healthcare system - not because it works, but because it is the best kind of system to have. And for all the rhetoric from both sides, Tory supporters aren't significantly more critical of our system or supportive of privatisation than other Canadians.
Canadian Seat Breakdown
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
New AR Poll: 6% Conservative Lead
Angus-Reid released a new poll yesterday, taken between July 2 and July 3 and involving 1,003 respondents. Note: this poll is older than the Strategic Counsel and EKOS polls from the past week, and both included the Angus-Reid polling days in their own polls.
The national results:
Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 16%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 7%
This is a monster result for the Conservatives, the highest they've had in months. One has to strongly suspect, however, that this is an outlier result. Both EKOS and SC showed a much closer race, with EKOS even putting the Liberals ahead. Nevertheless, it is an indication that the Tory vote is still strong.
The Conservatives lead in most demographics in this poll: males (42%), 18-34 year olds (27%), 35-54 year olds (36%), and 55+ year olds (42%). The Liberals lead among women (34%). Regionally, the race in British Columbia is very close (41% CPC, 36% LPC), but the Tories are well ahead in Alberta and the Prairies. The race is also close in Ontario:
Conservatives - 37%
Liberals - 34%
New Democrats - 19%
Greens - 9%
This is a good result for the NDP, and as the other polls also showed a close horse-race between the two major parties, we have to believe these numbers to be pretty accurate, at least in terms of the gap.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois appears to be pulling away. If you look at the opinion polling trends, a distinct lead is starting to form for the Bloc. The result:
Bloc Quebecois - 38%
Liberals - 27%
Conservatives - 16%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 6%
The NDP result keeps them in the picture for a seat. Finally, in Atlantic Canada this poll bucks the trend, placing the NDP in third (22%) behind the Tories (30%). The Liberals are way ahead, at 45%.
The poll also asked who was trusted to handle the economy, and Stephen Harper received a 41% trust rating compared to Michael Ignatieff's 32%. Those results are very close to the national support levels, however.
This poll would have resulted in the following seats totals:
Conservatives - 133
Liberals - 98
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 26
More or less a repeat of 2006.
Strategic Counsel also posted the details of their poll. What was revealed was a weak 7% result for the NDP in Quebec, and an even worse 4% for the Greens. In Ontario, the Greens had 7%.
SC breaks things down into Ontario, Quebec, "Rest of Canada", and "West". The RoC breakdown is puzzling, as it doesn't tell us anything at all. Anyway, in the West we can look at changes from the previous SC poll in early June. The Tories have maintained themselves at 41%, the Liberals have gained five points to reach 26%, the NDP has lost two points to finish at 23%, and the Greens have lost three points and are at 10%.
Both of these polls will be added to the projection at the next weekly update.
The national results:
Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 16%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 7%
This is a monster result for the Conservatives, the highest they've had in months. One has to strongly suspect, however, that this is an outlier result. Both EKOS and SC showed a much closer race, with EKOS even putting the Liberals ahead. Nevertheless, it is an indication that the Tory vote is still strong.
The Conservatives lead in most demographics in this poll: males (42%), 18-34 year olds (27%), 35-54 year olds (36%), and 55+ year olds (42%). The Liberals lead among women (34%). Regionally, the race in British Columbia is very close (41% CPC, 36% LPC), but the Tories are well ahead in Alberta and the Prairies. The race is also close in Ontario:
Conservatives - 37%
Liberals - 34%
New Democrats - 19%
Greens - 9%
This is a good result for the NDP, and as the other polls also showed a close horse-race between the two major parties, we have to believe these numbers to be pretty accurate, at least in terms of the gap.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois appears to be pulling away. If you look at the opinion polling trends, a distinct lead is starting to form for the Bloc. The result:
Bloc Quebecois - 38%
Liberals - 27%
Conservatives - 16%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 6%
The NDP result keeps them in the picture for a seat. Finally, in Atlantic Canada this poll bucks the trend, placing the NDP in third (22%) behind the Tories (30%). The Liberals are way ahead, at 45%.
The poll also asked who was trusted to handle the economy, and Stephen Harper received a 41% trust rating compared to Michael Ignatieff's 32%. Those results are very close to the national support levels, however.
This poll would have resulted in the following seats totals:
Conservatives - 133
Liberals - 98
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 26
More or less a repeat of 2006.
Strategic Counsel also posted the details of their poll. What was revealed was a weak 7% result for the NDP in Quebec, and an even worse 4% for the Greens. In Ontario, the Greens had 7%.
SC breaks things down into Ontario, Quebec, "Rest of Canada", and "West". The RoC breakdown is puzzling, as it doesn't tell us anything at all. Anyway, in the West we can look at changes from the previous SC poll in early June. The Tories have maintained themselves at 41%, the Liberals have gained five points to reach 26%, the NDP has lost two points to finish at 23%, and the Greens have lost three points and are at 10%.
Both of these polls will be added to the projection at the next weekly update.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Thursday Projection Update: Conservatives by One
The projection has been updated, though only with the EKOS poll released today. The Strategic Counsel poll from earlier this week has been put into the projection system where I have information, but I'll be giving the poll no weight (and thus no influence) until I have all the details.
The short-term projection has changed to the benefit of the Liberals. Though they lost half a point, they didn't lose a seat which puts them in the lead as the Tories have lost five seats and 0.4 points in the national vote. The Bloc has gained two seats while the NDP has gained three as well as 0.6%. The Greens have also gained that much of the vote.
The long-term projection has also changed, but to the benefit of the New Democrats. They are up two seats in British Columbia, putting them at 24 nationwide. The Conservatives and Liberals have each lost one, bringing them down to 118 and 117, respectively. The Greens have gained 0.2 points nationally and the Tories have lost 0.1. They've also lost 0.4 points in Alberta, while the Greens are up 0.3. The NDP has also gained 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada.
Things remain incredibly close. It is impossible to guess at what the government would look like with such a result.
While things remain close on high, when you look more closely into the polling data we see a few trends. Firstly, in British Columbia the three parties are starting to drift towards one another. We don't see the 40%+ Tory support levels we saw in the past. In the Prairies, things are also starting to get closer and the NDP is making a contest out of it for second place.
In Quebec, the Liberals are dropped to the low-30s from the mid-to-high 30s, to the benefit of the Bloc, who are starting to slowly drift upwards from the mid-30s. The Tory slide in that province has also halted, but it has done so in the mid-teens, which is not a healthy result. In Atlantic Canada, the Tories are starting to fall like a stone, with several recent polls putting the NDP in second place. The bump for Jack Layton's party is likely the result of the provincial NDP victory in Nova Scotia.
That the NDP is starting to improve its score in British Columbia, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada (historically their bread and butter regions) could embolden Layton come the fall. With the Liberals still looking like they can win (and undoubtedly improve their place in Parliament, which in and of itself might be worth an election call), the NDP getting back to respectable levels, and the Bloc appearing capable of improving on their 2008 support level, an autumn election is becoming more and more likely. The summer is starting with stories of Conservative gaffes, which doesn't help matters for them. Whether they are insignificant stories like that of the host and Harper missing another international group photo at the G8, or more important ones like Minister Diane Ablonczy being demoted for her involvement with the Toronto Pride Parade, they keep a negative eye upon the government during a time when parties are supposed to keep their heads down and shake hands at BBQs.
The short-term projection has changed to the benefit of the Liberals. Though they lost half a point, they didn't lose a seat which puts them in the lead as the Tories have lost five seats and 0.4 points in the national vote. The Bloc has gained two seats while the NDP has gained three as well as 0.6%. The Greens have also gained that much of the vote.
The long-term projection has also changed, but to the benefit of the New Democrats. They are up two seats in British Columbia, putting them at 24 nationwide. The Conservatives and Liberals have each lost one, bringing them down to 118 and 117, respectively. The Greens have gained 0.2 points nationally and the Tories have lost 0.1. They've also lost 0.4 points in Alberta, while the Greens are up 0.3. The NDP has also gained 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada.
Things remain incredibly close. It is impossible to guess at what the government would look like with such a result.
While things remain close on high, when you look more closely into the polling data we see a few trends. Firstly, in British Columbia the three parties are starting to drift towards one another. We don't see the 40%+ Tory support levels we saw in the past. In the Prairies, things are also starting to get closer and the NDP is making a contest out of it for second place.
In Quebec, the Liberals are dropped to the low-30s from the mid-to-high 30s, to the benefit of the Bloc, who are starting to slowly drift upwards from the mid-30s. The Tory slide in that province has also halted, but it has done so in the mid-teens, which is not a healthy result. In Atlantic Canada, the Tories are starting to fall like a stone, with several recent polls putting the NDP in second place. The bump for Jack Layton's party is likely the result of the provincial NDP victory in Nova Scotia.
That the NDP is starting to improve its score in British Columbia, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada (historically their bread and butter regions) could embolden Layton come the fall. With the Liberals still looking like they can win (and undoubtedly improve their place in Parliament, which in and of itself might be worth an election call), the NDP getting back to respectable levels, and the Bloc appearing capable of improving on their 2008 support level, an autumn election is becoming more and more likely. The summer is starting with stories of Conservative gaffes, which doesn't help matters for them. Whether they are insignificant stories like that of the host and Harper missing another international group photo at the G8, or more important ones like Minister Diane Ablonczy being demoted for her involvement with the Toronto Pride Parade, they keep a negative eye upon the government during a time when parties are supposed to keep their heads down and shake hands at BBQs.
New EKOS Poll: 0.4% Liberal Lead
EKOS released a new poll today, taken between June 30 and July 7 and involving 3,088 respondents. Here are the national results:
Liberals - 32.2%
Conservatives - 31.8%
New Democrats - 16.0%
Greens - 10.7%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.3%
This is another very close poll, pretty much confirming that Canada is split between the two major parties. It should be pointed out, however, that the Liberals saw a small up-tick at the end of the polling period.
The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada (35.1%), Ontario (39.2%), among females, under 25 year olds, 25-44 year olds, 45-64 year olds, university graduates, and in Toronto.
The Conservatives lead in British Columbia (37.2%), Alberta (57.1%), the Prairies (35.4%), among males, 65+ year olds, high school graduates, college graduates, in Vancouver, and in Calgary. The Ontario result for the Tories is 33.9% (back from some highs we've seen over the last few polls), and the Quebec result is 16.2%.
The New Democrats don't lead anywhere, but are in second in Atlantic Canada (29.6%) and the Prairies (27.1%). The best result for the Greens comes in the Prairies, at 14.8%. The Bloc is showing a bit of improvement over past Ekos polls at 37.1%.
This poll would result in the following seat totals:
Liberals - 117
Conservatives - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 30
Greens - 1
So, still very close. But the Liberals could govern with the support of the NDP, though a majority is out of the question for even a coalition.
Projection update coming later today.
Liberals - 32.2%
Conservatives - 31.8%
New Democrats - 16.0%
Greens - 10.7%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.3%
This is another very close poll, pretty much confirming that Canada is split between the two major parties. It should be pointed out, however, that the Liberals saw a small up-tick at the end of the polling period.
The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada (35.1%), Ontario (39.2%), among females, under 25 year olds, 25-44 year olds, 45-64 year olds, university graduates, and in Toronto.
The Conservatives lead in British Columbia (37.2%), Alberta (57.1%), the Prairies (35.4%), among males, 65+ year olds, high school graduates, college graduates, in Vancouver, and in Calgary. The Ontario result for the Tories is 33.9% (back from some highs we've seen over the last few polls), and the Quebec result is 16.2%.
The New Democrats don't lead anywhere, but are in second in Atlantic Canada (29.6%) and the Prairies (27.1%). The best result for the Greens comes in the Prairies, at 14.8%. The Bloc is showing a bit of improvement over past Ekos polls at 37.1%.
This poll would result in the following seat totals:
Liberals - 117
Conservatives - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 30
Greens - 1
So, still very close. But the Liberals could govern with the support of the NDP, though a majority is out of the question for even a coalition.
Projection update coming later today.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
CentVingtCinq Updated
The Quebec provincial projection wing of the site, CentVingtCinq, has been updated. Go check it out, but here is how the projection currently stands:
Liberals - 61 seats - 39.9%
Parti Quebecois - 57 seats - 37.1%
Action Democratique - 5 seats - 12.0%
Quebec Solidaire - 2 seats - 5.3%
Parti Vert - 0 seats - 5.0%
Of course, the next Quebec election won't be until 2012 or 2013, but it is fun to follow along with that political horserace.
Still no news from Strategic Counsel and their most recent poll.
Liberals - 61 seats - 39.9%
Parti Quebecois - 57 seats - 37.1%
Action Democratique - 5 seats - 12.0%
Quebec Solidaire - 2 seats - 5.3%
Parti Vert - 0 seats - 5.0%
Of course, the next Quebec election won't be until 2012 or 2013, but it is fun to follow along with that political horserace.
Still no news from Strategic Counsel and their most recent poll.
Monday, July 6, 2009
New Strategic Counsel Poll: 1% Conservative Lead
The Globe and Mail is reporting on a new Strategic Counsel poll. The information in the G&M article has serious gaps, so hopefully CTV (for whom Strategic Counsel also conducted the poll) will give more details. Strategic Counsel is rather slow in posting new information on their website, so those two reports might be all we have to go on for a few days.
The poll involved 1,000 interviews, and was taken recently. There are no more details than that.
07/07/09 15:51 UPDATE: The poll was taken between July 2 and July 5, according to a Reuters report. Still waiting on SC to update their website.
The national result:
Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 15%
BQ/GPC - ?
This is nothing unusual, we've seen how close the numbers have been in recent days. The Ontario result also shows a slim Tory lead:
Conservatives - 43%
Liberals - 39%
New Democrats - 11%
Greens - ?
This looks like the recent EKOS poll, but we saw how that was counter-balanced by the Nanos poll. And now Quebec:
Bloc Quebecois - 44%
Liberals - 31%
Conservatives - 15%
NDP/GPC - ?
That is a huge number for the Bloc, probably an outlier until we see another 40+ poll, but run-of-the-mill results for the Liberals and Tories. It will be interesting to see what the NDP support level is in Quebec in this poll, as it seems Bloc gains and losses mirror those of the NDP more than any other party.
Stay tuned, hopefully we'll have more details soon!
The poll involved 1,000 interviews, and was taken recently. There are no more details than that.
07/07/09 15:51 UPDATE: The poll was taken between July 2 and July 5, according to a Reuters report. Still waiting on SC to update their website.
The national result:
Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 15%
BQ/GPC - ?
This is nothing unusual, we've seen how close the numbers have been in recent days. The Ontario result also shows a slim Tory lead:
Conservatives - 43%
Liberals - 39%
New Democrats - 11%
Greens - ?
This looks like the recent EKOS poll, but we saw how that was counter-balanced by the Nanos poll. And now Quebec:
Bloc Quebecois - 44%
Liberals - 31%
Conservatives - 15%
NDP/GPC - ?
That is a huge number for the Bloc, probably an outlier until we see another 40+ poll, but run-of-the-mill results for the Liberals and Tories. It will be interesting to see what the NDP support level is in Quebec in this poll, as it seems Bloc gains and losses mirror those of the NDP more than any other party.
Stay tuned, hopefully we'll have more details soon!
New Blog Roll
As you'll notice, at the bottom right of this page I've started a list of blogs. I will add to it as more blogs come to my attention. I've separated the blogs into "Political Commentators" (i.e. the media), "Non-Partisan Blogs" (i.e. informative blogs not espousing the policies of a particular party), and blogs from each of the major parties.
Those blogs put under the rubric of a party aren't official blogs of those parties, and they might often even disagree with the party I've put them with. But they are blogs that are written by supporters of those parties, and I think it is helpful to organise things this way.
I will add blogs as time goes on, but only if I consider them to be quality blogs. When judging whether a blog is a quality blog, I'm looking for informative, well-written posts. Blogs that are too rhetorical, too partisan, and/or badly written or rarely updated will not be added to the list. I've added the Blogging Tories, Liblogs, and New Democrats Online blog lists, which group together virtually all of the blogs which support those groups, so you should be able to find those blogs that I haven't added to my list there.
Here's your opportunity to plug your blog in the comments section, and I will consider your blog for the list.
Those blogs put under the rubric of a party aren't official blogs of those parties, and they might often even disagree with the party I've put them with. But they are blogs that are written by supporters of those parties, and I think it is helpful to organise things this way.
I will add blogs as time goes on, but only if I consider them to be quality blogs. When judging whether a blog is a quality blog, I'm looking for informative, well-written posts. Blogs that are too rhetorical, too partisan, and/or badly written or rarely updated will not be added to the list. I've added the Blogging Tories, Liblogs, and New Democrats Online blog lists, which group together virtually all of the blogs which support those groups, so you should be able to find those blogs that I haven't added to my list there.
Here's your opportunity to plug your blog in the comments section, and I will consider your blog for the list.
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