The Writ has dropped!

 (Dusts off the old blog)

Hello, everyone! It's been awhile. 

But, I'm back and returning to my roots with the launch of my new website, The Writ! It'll be a little bit like what ThreeHundredEight.com used to be, but also a little different. 

Please check it out. In the meantime, this website will continue to function and be accessible as an archive of my older work.

So long and thanks for all the polls

When I started this site in October 2008, it was out of my admiration for the work that was being done by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight during that year's U.S. presidential election. His site sparked a passion for political polling, election forecasts and psephology in me — and it has now become my full-time work.

After developing this site from amateurish to slightly-less-amateurish, I was lucky enough to secure regular freelance work with The Globe and Mail and The Hill Times in 2010 and The Huffington Post Canada in 2011, as well as election-related work with some French-language media outlets.

Things changed in 2014 when I begin working with the CBC in the run-up to the 2015 federal election. Since the beginning of that campaign I've been working out of the newsroom with the Parliamentary Bureau in Ottawa.

It's been a life-changing move, as well as an honour and an inspiration to work with such a talented and professional group of journalists every day.

Now, regular readers might have noticed that the activity on this site has died down in recent months. My work with the CBC has curtailed the time I've been able to invest in this website.

But now that I have accepted a full-time position with the Parliamentary Bureau, the time has come to cease operations of this site.

I hope readers will continue following my work with the CBC. In addition to your local CBC radio and television stations and CBC News Network, here is where you can find me:

• You can find my most recent articles and work here, as well as on the CBC Politics page.
• You can subscribe to my podcast, The Pollcast, here, and you can find and stream all of the episodes here.

ThreeHundredEight.com will be kept online and accessible as an archive and a reference, but it will no longer be updated.

I owe a debt of gratitude to my readers over the last nine years. Thank you for visiting ThreeHundredEight.com, for giving me your support and encouragement, for keeping me accountable and always striving to get better.

I've loved this site, but it is now time to move on to the next chapter. I'm excited about it.

The Pollcast: What to watch for in Monday's byelections

The five federal byelections being held on Monday are not expected to be nail-biters. They are taking place in traditionally safe seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals.

But there are still some things to watch for when the votes are counted.


You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

The byelections are being held to fill the seats vacated by Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent), Mauril Bélanger (Ottawa–Vanier), John McCallum (Markham–Thornhill), Jason Kenney (Calgary Midnapore) and Stephen Harper (Calgary Heritage).

In the 2015 election, the closest contest of these (Markham–Thornhill) was still decided by a margin of 23 points — so a change in the seat count is not expected.

But there are a few questions that the byelections can help answer. Will the Liberals be hurt by the controversies surrounding the nomination processes in Markham–Thornhill and Saint-Laurent? Has the Conservative leadership race helped attract new support to the party, or has it put voters off? And will the NDP do better than the last byelection that was held, when the party finished with just one per cent of the vote?

I'm joined by the National Post's David Akin to discuss.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

Erin O'Toole winning Conservative caucus as it shuns leadership front-runners Bernier, O'Leary

More than two-thirds of the Conservative caucus has gotten behind one of the 14 candidates for the party's top job. Most are supporting either Erin O'Toole or Andrew Scheer — and O'Toole has now surpassed Scheer as the favourite of Conservatives in the House of Commons, even luring two of Scheer's former backers to his side.

But polls and other metrics suggest Maxime Bernier or Kevin O'Leary are leading the pack. If either of them wins, they could find themselves at the head of a Conservative caucus that overwhelmingly preferred someone else.

You can read the rest of this article here.

NDP leadership debate to focus on young Canadians and how to win them back

New Democrats vying for their party's leadership will gather in Montreal on Sunday for a debate focused exclusively on issues relating to Canada's youth — a demographic that swung in large numbers from the NDP to the Liberals in the 2015 federal election.

It'll include the four candidates currently in the running for the party leadership: Ontario MP Charlie Angus, Manitoba MP Niki Ashton, Quebec MP Guy Caron and B.C. MP Peter Julian.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: The politics of the budget

In the budget presented by Finance Minister Bill Morneau on Wednesday, the Liberal government laid out its plans for the future of Canada's economy, with a focus on skills training and innovation.

But some of those plans extend to well after the 2019 federal election. The calculations the Liberals have baked into the budget could be at the whim of what happens in the interim, including changes in the world economy and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's presidency.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

So how does the budget position the Liberals politically? Does it give them something to sell to voters between now and 2019? Will the government's plan to stay in deficit well into the next decade hamstring the Liberals and give the opposition parties a vulnerability to exploit?

To break down the politics of Budget 2017, I'm joined by the CBC's David Cochrane, Catherine Cullen and Susan Lunn.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

Leitch slides, O'Leary gains in Conservative Leadership Index

Kellie Leitch is falling back and Kevin O'Leary is moving forward in their bids to lead the Conservative Party, according to the latest update to the Conservative Leadership Index.

Fellow contenders Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole also improved their standings in the index thanks to some key political endorsements.

The index is a composite of four leadership race metrics (endorsements, contributors, fundraising and polls) that has been developed to help gauge the state of the 14-candidate race to replace Stephen Harper as the party's permanent leader.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Alberta, Quebec could carry more weight in NDP leadership race than in 2012

When New Democrats last voted to select a new leader in 2012, most of the party's eligible voting members were in British Columbia and Ontario. An analysis of NDP donors suggests these two provinces will again carry the most weight in this year's leadership vote, but that Quebec and Alberta might be more important than they were five years ago.

The party did not provide a breakdown of its current membership, but looking at the regional distribution of NDP donors provides clues to how the profile of that membership might have changed since 2012 — and what that might mean for the four candidates currently in the running.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: The race for the NDP leadership is on

The four candidates for the NDP leadership debated for the first time on Sunday. The event kicked off a race that has been dormant for nearly a year. It won't come to a conclusion until October, when New Democrats decide who should replace Tom Mulcair as their leader.

The debate was a collegial affair. But did it provide any clues as to how this campaign might play out for the next seven months?

Unlike the Conservative leadership race, which has 14 candidates in the running, so far the NDP has a more manageable group to showcase: MPs Charlie Angus, Niki Ashton, Guy Caron and Peter Julian.

But that group may grow soon.

To help navigate the NDP leadership campaign, I'm joined again by NDP insiders Sally Housser of Navigator and Robin MacLachlan of Summa Strategies.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

John Horgan's NDP leads the B.C. polls, if you believe them

The provincial election in British Columbia is now less than two months away. And that means the polls are back.

After the failure of the polls in the 2013 vote, British Columbians might be forgiven for looking at them with skepticism. But the performance of the polls since 2013 suggests there is no reason to assume they are unreliable or that British Columbians are somehow unpollable.

Nevertheless, there is justification for looking at the latest numbers with a fair bit of caution.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: Is Jason Kenney's bid to unite the Alberta right about to begin?

If Jason Kenney is named the next leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives on March 18, it could mark the end of the once dominant Alberta PCs — and the beginning of a campaign that could result in a single Alberta Conservative Party taking on the governing New Democrats in 2019.

But while the chances of Kenney succeeding in achieving his short-term goal look good, his longer term aim of merging the PCs with Wildrose, a party led by Brian Jean, the leader of the Official Opposition in the Alberta legislature, will not be so simple.

To help break down the state of Alberta politics and what to expect in the coming months, I'm joined by Alberta pollster Janet Brown and Graham Thomson, columnist for the Edmonton Journal.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

Maxime Bernier, Kevin O'Leary lead Conservative leadership field, data suggests

With less than two months to go before voting begins for the Conservative Party leadership, Maxime Bernier and Kevin O'Leary are the front-runners, according to an analysis of endorsement, fundraising and polling data.

Bernier narrowly leads O'Leary based on a composite of four metrics (endorsements, fundraising, contributors and polls) that estimates how much support each candidate would likely have on the first ballot if the leadership vote were held today — call it the Conservative Leadership Index.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Liberal support slides to lowest levels since 2015 election

Support for Justin Trudeau's Liberals has sharply declined over the last three months, dropping to its lowest levels since the last federal election.

The party has taken a hit in the polls in every region of the country, boosting both the Conservatives and New Democrats as a result. But despite the governing party's worsening fortunes, the Liberals still have as much support today as they did when they secured a majority government in October 2015.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: 3 months to go in the Conservative leadership race

Kevin O'Leary was not one of the 13 candidates participating in the Conservative Party's leadership debate in Edmonton Tuesday, due to what he called its "bad format."

Those who did participate, struggled to be noticed on the cluttered stage — and with less than three months to go before the ballots are counted, candidates need to get noticed.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

O'Leary's decision to avoid the debate might have been the quintessential front runner's move, but O'Leary is far from being a runaway favourite for the leadership. Maxime Bernier is also widely seen to be in a strong position, while candidates such as Andrew Scheer, Lisa Raitt, Kellie Leitch, Erin O'Toole and Michael Chong are trying to secure second choice support that could keep them in the running.

Calls for the other candidates in the race to step aside are beginning to grow.

But will they be heeded?

To help lay out where things stand at this point in the race, I'm joined again by Conservative insiders Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

Conservative leadership debate in Edmonton the latest to showcase political manoeuvring

The Conservative leadership debates have not featured any of the mythical knockout punches that are supposed to win elections, but the subtle (and not so subtle) manoeuvring that will help decide the outcome has been on full display — most recently during Tuesday night's event in Edmonton.

And that includes Kevin O'Leary's decision to skip it.

Since the first official debate in Saskatoon on Nov. 9, the candidates have been up against each other 11 times. The party will hold one more official debate, and more local events are likely to be organized.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: The Bloc Québécois looks for a leader

The Conservatives and New Democrats have been in the midst of leadership contests for months, but the Bloc Québécois, which kicked off its leadership race at the beginning of February, will reach the finish-line first, on April 22.

Calling it a race, though, might be generous — because it is setting up to be a coronation.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

The Bloc has been without a permanent leader since Gilles Duceppe resigned on election night in 2015. There are two candidates officially in the running: Félix Pinel, who ran as a candidate for the party in the last election, and Martine Ouellet, an MNA sitting in Quebec's National Assembly.

Ouellet, who twice ran unsuccessfully for the leadership of the provincial Parti Québécois, left the PQ caucus after making her candidacy official and is sitting as an independent. If she wins the vote — she has the support of most of the Bloc's 10-member caucus — she intends to continue sitting as an MNA in Quebec City until the province holds its next election in October 2018.

Will Ouellet face any serious obstacles in her run for the Bloc Québécois leadership, or is her victory all but assured? How would Ouellet balance being a federal party leader and a provincial legislator at the same time?

And after two elections in which the once dominant Bloc has seen its support slide to less than 20 per cent in the province, does the party still have relevance in Quebec's federal political scene — or a future, with support for sovereignty at new lows?

To discuss the race and the future of the Bloc, I'm joined by Radio-Canada's Philippe-Vincent Foisy and Le Devoir's Marie Vastel.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

Kevin O'Leary's Conservative leadership rivals struggle to raise profiles

If Kevin O'Leary does not win the Conservative leadership race in May, polls suggest most Canadians will have just one question after someone else is announced as the party's next leader.

Who?

Abacus Data recently polled Canadians on their views of some of the leading candidates for the party's top job. It found that a majority of Canadians either had no strong opinion or no opinion at all about Maxime Bernier, Lisa Raitt, Kellie Leitch and Andrew Scheer.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Liberal backbenchers, Tory leadership hopefuls among Parliament's biggest dissenters

Members of Parliament might feel pressure to toe the party line and maintain party unity in the House of Commons. But a few MPs have stood out for their willingness to rise and vote "Yea" when the rest of their colleagues vote "Nay."

Still, this breaking of the ranks is rare: even the biggest rebel in Parliament votes along party lines 87 per cent of the time.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: Behind the scenes of the Conservative leadership race

With 14 candidates in the running, more than a year of campaigning and over a dozen debates to be held before the votes are finally counted on May 27, the Conservative leadership campaign poses unique challenges to journalists.

How do we balance coverage when there are so many candidates vying for attention? Which events are the pivotal ones in the race? And how do we gauge how the actual decision makers — expected to be no more than 150,000 Conservative party members that are eligible to vote — plan to cast their ballots?

The CBC's Catherine Cullen, who has been covering the leadership race since its beginning, joins me to discuss these challenges and what she is hearing and seeing behind the scenes on the campaign trail.

You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.

Bernier's broad donor base still tops the Conservative leadership field

Maxime Bernier's donor base remains the broadest and deepest among the contestants for the Conservative Party leadership, according to an analysis of fundraising data from the fourth quarter of 2016 — before Kevin O'Leary threw his hat into the ring.

But while the data provides no clue of O'Leary's impact, it does suggest that none of the other candidates have the diversified regional backing needed to win a vote that will give equal weight to each part of the country.

You can read the rest of the article here.