New Projection: Harris-Decima

As I mentioned on Tuesday, Harris-Decima released a new poll. I have the details, and so I have updated the projection. The poll was taken between April 23 and May 3, and involved 2,026 interviews. For the results of the poll, see the preceding post or scroll to the bottom of the page.

First up, here is what the electoral results would be of this poll, with the difference from the most recent previous poll in brackets:

Liberals - 126 seats (-11)
Conservatives - 105 seats (-6)
Bloc Quebecois - 52 seats (+6)
New Democrats - 24 seats (+10)
Greens - 1 seat (+1)

This poll would have given the Conservatives 60 seats west of Ontario, 37 seats in Ontario, none in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals would have 24 seats in the West, 57 in Ontario, 23 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada. The NDP would have had eight seats in the West, 12 in Ontario, none in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada. The Greens would win their seat in Atlantic Canada.

The short-term projection taken from the last five polls has changed as well. First, the popular vote with difference from last update in brackets:

Liberals - 34.2% (-0.5)
Conservatives - 31.4% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 14.8% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.2% (-0.1)
Greens - 8.6% (+0.6)

And now the seats:

Liberals - 128 (+1)
Conservatives - 114 (unchanged)
Bloc Quebecois - 48 (-1)
New Democrats - 18 (unchanged)

As for the long-term projection, there have been no seat changes. The national popular vote has changed:

Greens +0.3
Liberals +0.1
NDP and BQ unchanged
Conservatives -0.5

There have been some significant changes in the regions:

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Conservatives -0.6
Liberals -0.1
New Democrats unchanged
Greens +0.4

ALBERTA

Conservatives -0.9
Liberals +0.7
New Democrats -0.2
Greens +0.5

PRAIRIES

Conservatives -0.6
Liberals -0.1
New Democrats +0.2
Greens +0.8

ONTARIO

Conservatives -0.1
Liberals +0.1
New Democrats unchanged
Greens +0.5

QUEBEC

Conservatives -0.5
Liberals +0.4
New Democrats -0.2
Bloc Quebecois unchanged
Greens +0.3

ATLANTIC CANADA

Conservatives -0.3
Liberals unchanged
New Democrats -0.2
Greens +0.3

So, because the Liberals have been unable to bury the Conservatives in Ontario as of yet, they are still ahead in the long-term projection. But there is a trend and if the Liberals surpass the Conservatives nationally in the long-term projection, which they look to do soon, the projection will likely swing to the other side dramatically.

Poll to Come: Harris-Decima

Harris-Decima released a poll today, but only partial information from various media outlets is available so far. I'll update once Harris-Decima puts the full details on their website. In the meantime, here are the national results:

Liberals - 34%
Conservatives - 29%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 11%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

Good result for the Liberals, very bad result for the Conservatives, consistent (and not good) result for the NDP, and good result for the Greens. I look forward to seeing where that 11% has come from.

In Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 38%
Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 9%
Greens - 9%
New Democrats - 7%

Relatively decent result for the Bloc, great result for the Liberals, horrible results for the Conservatives and New Democrats, and strong result for the Greens.

In Ontario:

Liberals - 40%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 9%

Mostly consistent results here.

And British Columbia:

Conservatives - 32%
Liberals - 25%
New Democrats - 25%
Greens - 14%

Bad for the Conservatives, good for everyone else.

So, nothing here that would make Ignatieff shy away from his stance on EI. The Liberals look to be in a good spot to win an election. But, the NDP and the Bloc look to lose some, though it is difficult to see exactly how much the Bloc could potentially gain from the Tory collapse, so one wonders how enthused they must be about going into an election. With these numbers, the Conservatives should be trying to avoid an election. They would do well to prey on the NDP and Bloc fears in order to do that.