New Poll: Strategic Counsel

A new poll was released today by Strategic Counsel, taken between May 6 and May 10 and including 1,004 interviews. However, the details are not available from Strategic Counsel yet and the only information to be found is at the CTV and Globe and Mail websites. The information is virtually complete, I am just missing the NDP and Green results in Ontario. Until I have them, I won't be updating the projection. Nevertheless, here are the results:

CANADA

Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 30%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 11%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

This is a good result for the Liberals, but within the margin we've seen recently. This is a bad result for the Conservatives, but also within recent trends. This is a good result for the NDP, as they have recently been on the up-swing and it is good for them to be moving farther away from the 14% or lower range. The Green result is also very good. Strong results from them is a bit of a recent trend.

QUEBEC

Bloc Quebecois - 39%
Liberals - 37%
Conservatives - 9%
New Democrats - 9%
Greens - 8%

Within the range of what we've seen lately: strong Liberal result, Conservatives out of the picture.

ONTARIO

Liberals - 42%
Conservatives - 32%

One of the wider gaps between the two parties that we've seen since the beginning of April.

WEST

Conservatives - 42%
Liberals - 25%
New Democrats - 19%
Greens - 15%

Of course, "the West" is not included in the projection model. So, the best I can do for context is compare it to the last SC poll. In the West, that puts the Conservatives down four points, the Liberals up one, the Greens up four and the NDP unchanged.

Hopefully I will have the necessary information to update the projection before the end of the day. Check back later!

Monthly Picture: April 2009

Another month has passed, and so it is time to take a look at how the parties polled over the entire month of April, and to compare that to March. There were six national polls in April, totaling 7,606 people polled in all. First, the national polling results with the change from March in brackets:

Liberals - 34.6% (+1.4)
Conservatives - 31.7% (-2.6)
New Democrats - 14.9% (+0.7)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.4% (-0.1)
Greens - 8.2% (unchanged)

This is a good trend for the Liberals, who were behind the Conservatives in March. The NDP seems to have stopped the bleeding, but are still below even their February 2009 level.

Now, what this would give in the seat projection, with the difference from March in brackets:

Liberals - 132 (+14)
Conservatives - 109 (-17)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (-1)
New Democrats - 18 (+4)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

And now, regional results.

BRITISH COLUMBIA (four polls)

Conservatives - 34.5% (-8.0)
Liberals - 30.2% (+3.7)
New Democrats - 24.0% (+3.2)
Greens - 10.6% (+1.8)

ALBERTA (four polls)

Conservatives - 58.9% (-1.1)
Liberals - 20.8% (+2.8)
Greens - 10.7% (+2.9)
New Democrats - 8.2% (-3.8)

PRAIRIES (four polls)

Conservatives - 44.9% (-4.9)
Liberals - 27.8% (+2.5)
New Democrats - 20.1% (+1.6)
Greens - 5.9% (+0.6)

ONTARIO (six polls)

Liberals - 43.2% (+2.4)
Conservatives - 34.4% (-1.6)
New Democrats - 14.1% (+1.1)
Greens - 9.6% (+0.1)

QUEBEC (seven polls)

Bloc Quebecois - 37.5% (-1.2)
Liberals - 33.3% (+2.9)
Conservatives - 12.6% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 10.0% (-0.3)
Greens - 5.6% (+0.2)

ATLANTIC CANADA (five polls)

Liberals - 42.5% (+1.5)
Conservatives - 28.7% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 23.5% (+3.3)
Greens - 5.0% (-2.2)

These numbers show that the Liberals had the best polling month, followed by the NDP and the Greens. The Bloc and Conservatives both had difficulties. The Liberals' support grew in all six regions of the country, while the NDP increased its support in four regions, while decreasing in two. The Greens had gains in five regions and losses in one, while the Conservatives lost support in all six regions and the Bloc in Quebec.