PQ maintains lead, ADQ gets bump

Léger Marketing's latest provincial voting intentions poll in Quebec shows little change, but the Action Démocratique is up a little.The Parti Québécois leads with 40%, unchanged since Léger's poll at the beginning of April. The Liberals are up one to 31%.

The ADQ is up two points to 12%, more in line with where they were when Mario Dumont was leader prior to 2007. It isn't surprising to see the ADQ back up to this level, as the Liberals have removed themselves as an option in light of the recent scandals and corruption allegations.

Québec Solidaire is down one to 8% while the Greens (PVQ) are down one to 7%.

The PQ leads among francophones with 48%, up two points. The PLQ is next with 22% (down one) and the ADQ follows with 15% (up four).

Among non-francophones, the Liberals are at 65% (up four). Next is the PVQ at 13% (up one) and QS with 10%.

The PLQ's strength remains to be in Montreal, where the party leads with 40% (up five). The PQ is not far behind with 34%, down one. The PVQ follows with 10% (up one). We saw how the PVQ did better in the West Island in 2008.

In Quebec City, the PQ has a solid lead with 39%, unchanged since April. The ADQ is back up and competitive with 27% around the capital, up nine points. The PLQ follows with 19%, down six.

Finally, in the rest of Quebec the PQ dominates with 46% (unchanged). The PLQ is at 24% (down two) and the ADQ is at 16% (up four).

Pauline Marois of the PQ is the favourite for Premier with 26% (down one). Jean Charest, current Liberal premier, is next with 18% (up one). Amir Khadir (QS, up one) is at 9%, and Gérard Deltell (ADQ) follows with 6% (down one).

The Parti Québécois would win 71 seats, followed by the Liberals with 46, the ADQ with 6, and QS with 2.

The PLQ can be happy that the bleeding has stopped, at least for now. But losses among francophones and around the capital hurt the party.

This is a good poll for the PQ, as they have maintained their lead and have either made gains or stayed stable among francophones, in Quebec City, and in the "rest of Quebec". Those are the PQ's areas of strength.

It is also a relatively positive poll for the ADQ, as they back to being a factor around the capital and outside of Montreal.

New Léger Poll: 11-pt Bloc Lead

Léger Marketing has released a new poll of the federal and provincial voting intentions of Quebecers. Today, let's look at the federal results.Compared to Léger's last large provincial poll, the Bloc Québécois has dropped three points to 35%. The Liberals are up three to 24% while the Conservatives are steady at 17%.

The New Democrats have picked up one point, standing at third place with 18%.

The Greens are at 4%, down two, and "Other" is at 1%.

The Bloc's losses seem to have come throughout the province, as they are down two points to 43% among francophones, down four points to 4% among non-francophones, down one point to 33% in the Québec City region, and down five points to 39% in rural Quebec. The party is steady around Montréal with 32%. These aren't completely worrisome figures, as the party is still well ahead and these losses should all be within the MOE.

In contrast, the Liberals seem to have made uniform gains. They are up two points among francophones to 18% (which is still too low), five points among non-francophones to 48%, two points around Montréal with 31%, and four points in rural Quebec to 18%. They've dropped one point in Québec City to 16%, however. They aren't in any of the races there, but look to be able to be very competitive in Montréal.

The NDP made good gains among non-francophones (three points), in Québec City (three points) and rural Quebec (two points).

The Conservatives were pretty steady, but dropped one point to 26% in the Québec City region. As that is their bread and butter, that is not good news for them.

The Bloc would win 50 seats with this poll, taking advantage of weaker Conservative numbers than in 2008.

The Liberals win 16 seats, while the Conservatives win 7 and the NDP wins 2.

The Conservatives continue to have trouble getting back to their 20+ levels of 2006 and 2008, while the Liberals look stagnant. In fact, all of the major parties appear to be stagnant, which is not exactly bad news for the Bloc. They have a lock on a majority of the seats as long as the Liberals and Conservatives can't make any moves. Their only worry would be the NDP, but the party's support is much more widespread than regional, so they aren't in a position to win anything but a couple seats in Montreal and the Outaouais if everything goes right for them.