New Nanos Poll: 6.4-pt Conservative Lead

The new Nanos poll has more wild swings than a wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube man.Compared to their last poll at the beginning of May, the Conservatives have dropped 1.6 points to 35.6%, which is still not a bad number. The Liberals drop four points to 29.2%, while the New Democrats make a big 4.5-point jump to 20.7%. We rarely see such huge swings from poll to poll.

The Greens are up 1.3 points to 5.1% while the Bloc Québécois is at 9.4%.

In Ontario, the Conservative jump six points to an incredible 43.2%, taking the lead from the Liberals, who must've clubbed a seal as they've dropped eight points to 32.4%. The NDP is up two to 19.1%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up one to 38.6%, while the Liberals are down two to 24.6%. The Conservatives are down five big ones to 19.3% while the NDP is up two to 13.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 39.3%, up three. The NDP is up two to 27.6% and the Liberals are down nine to 21.3%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 39.7% (down four). The Conservatives are down four to 34.4% and the NDP is up eight to 25.9%.

In Saskialbertoba, the Conservatives are down 13 points to 41.7%, but lead. The NDP jumps 10 to 23.9%. Nanos continues to bunch Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba together, making it impossible to compare these numbers to any other poll or use them in my projection.

UPDATE: The undecided in this poll is 24.2%, two points up from last month. Not a huge shift, despite the variations in support.

For Alberta and the Prairies, I've used the seat projection at the top of this page.
The Conservatives win 68 seats in the West, 59 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 143.

The Liberals win 13 seats in the West and North, 33 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 82.

The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec.

The NDP win 14 seats in the West and North, 14 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33. You may be wondering why they drop in seats despite being over 20%. But their result in BC is nothing spectacular, the Liberals and Bloc are too strong in Quebec to give them an inch, and gaining a point in Ontario does little when the Conservatives are so high.

An interesting poll with a lot of big numbers, but as usually Nanos stands out from the crowd. They, like Angus-Reid, do not prompt the party names in their questions. This seems to lower the Greens quite a bit, which then makes the other numbers look a little different from what we're used to seeing with EKOS and Harris-Decima. But are the Conservatives really at 43% in Ontario? Are the Greens at 0% in Atlantic Canada? There's nothing especially egregious in this poll, but some of these numbers need to be shaved down a little.

May Polling Averages

Time to look at May's polling. Ten national polls were taken during this month (one more than last month), totaling about 19,840 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 34.6% (+1.6)
Liberals - 27.8% (+0.4)
New Democrats - 16.4% (-0.7)
Greens - 9.6% (-1.2)
Bloc Québécois - 9.6% (+0.1)

The Tories made a decent gain in May, while the Liberals also take a (small) step forward. The NDP, however, after a few months of gains, fall back down below 17%. The Greens see their gains from April slip away, and more.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 134 (+7)
Liberals - 91 (-4)
Bloc Québécois - 52 (unchanged)
New Democrats - 31 (-3)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

The Conservatives win seven more seats than they did last month, inching back up to their 2008 electoral result. The Liberals, on the other hand, have dropped 11 seats in two months. The NDP drops back three seats, but is still up one over their March level.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (10 polls - about 2,310 people)

Conservatives - 36.8% (+2.0)
New Democrats - 25.9% (-1.3)
Liberals - 22.4% (+0.2)
Greens - 12.6% (-1.3)

The Conservatives make a big, and important, gain in the province. The NDP is down quite a bit, but they are still higher than they were in March. The Liberals are up a bit, but they lost 2.2 points in April.

ALBERTA (9 polls - about 1,790 people)

Conservatives - 55.7% (-1.6)
Liberals - 18.8% (+2.9)
Greens - 10.9% (-1.2)
New Democrats - 10.9% (-0.8)

The Tories take a step backwards, but are still well ahead. The Liberals make a big leap after dropping last month. The NDP also seems to be losing ground, but at least they are now tied with the Greens for third.

PRAIRIES (9 polls - about 1,270 people)

Conservatives - 46.5% (+2.0)
Liberals - 22.1% (-1.0)
New Democrats - 21.4% (+0.1)
Greens - 8.2% (-1.8)

The Conservatives erase their losses from the previous month, while the Liberals lose after a month of good gains. The NDP is stable, but considering they gained 1.1 points last month, that is good news.

The Conservatives take 67 in the West (unchanged since April), while the Liberals win 15 in the West and North (unchanged) and the NDP wins 13 (unchanged).

ONTARIO (10 polls - about 5,920 people)

Conservatives - 37.2% (+2.1)
Liberals - 34.9% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 15.8% (-1.2)
Greens - 10.8% (-0.3)

The Conservatives make a big jump in this battleground province, taking back the lead. After losing 1.4 points, losing only 0.2 this month is better news for the Liberals, but overall it has been a bad 60 days. The NDP is also down.

The Conservatives win 50 seats (up five), the Liberals win 43 (down three, down 10 in the last three months), and the NDP wins 13 (down two).

QUEBEC (10 polls - about 4,440 people)

Bloc Québécois - 38.7% (+0.1)
Liberals - 22.4% (+0.1)
Conservatives - 17.3% (+0.8)
New Democrats - 12.2% (+0.1)
Greens - 7.3% (-1.6)

After a big gain last month, the Bloc consolidated it with a tiny gain in May. The Liberals are up a teeny bit, but are still too low overall. After a loss of 0.6 points last month, the Tories are up 0.8 this month. The NDP are also up a little.

The Bloc takes 52 seats (unchanged), the Liberals take 14 (down one), the Conservatives take 7 (up one) and the NDP win 2 (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (10 polls - about 1,490 people)

Liberals - 36.9% (+1.0)
Conservatives - 34.7% (+2.4)
New Democrats - 21.4% (-1.1)
Greens - 5.8% (-2.5)

The Liberals gain a point after some modest gains last month. The Conservatives are up big, marking almost five points of gains in two months. The NDP has dropped more than three points in the same time span.

The Liberals win 19 seats (unchanged), the Conservatives win 10 (up one), and the NDP wins 3 (down one).May's big winners are the Conservatives, who saw gains in five regions and had a big bumps in seats. Their only drop was in Alberta, where they can afford it. They had gains of two or more points in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, and British Columbia - all good news.

Next would be the Liberals, who despite everything saw gains in four regions. Their gains in Quebec and British Columbia were insignificant, but so was their drop in Ontario. Their gains in Atlantic Canada and Alberta were of a good size.

The NDP only gain in two regions: Quebec and the Prairies. And both of these were of 0.1 points. Their losses in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia (all over 1.0) hurt.

The Bloc only gain 0.1 points, but their lead over the Liberals is huge and they are above their 2008 level. So, good news for them to be treading water.

The Greens had a very bad month. Ironically, it was the month of May. Except in Ontario, all of their losses were greater than 1.2 points.