BC NDP strengthen lead

Angus-Reid recently released a new poll on provincial voting intentions in British Columbia. There isn't much change, but the trend is in the BC New Democrats' favour.Compared to Angus-Reid's last BC poll in mid-April, 46% is a gain of one point for the BC NDP. More importantly, the BC Liberals have dropped three points to 26%. That would be their lowest electoral result since 1986.

The BC Greens are steady at 14% while the BC Conservatives are up three points to 8%.

We can't compare apples to oranges, but the Mustel Group's May BC poll had the BC NDP at 44%, the BC Liberals at 32%, the BC Greens at 13%, and the BC Conservatives at 7%. While we can't compare the results, it does serve to help confirm Angus-Reid's findings.

In Vancouver, the BC NDP leads with 46%. The BC Liberals are at 27% and the Greens are at 15%.

On Vancouver Island, the BC NDP also leads, with 54%. This is their best regional result. The BC Liberals are way behind with 18% while the BC Greens are at 16% there.

In the Interior, the BC NDP leads with 43%, followed more closely by the BC Liberals at 30%. The BC Conservatives are in third here with 16%, their best regional result.

Finally, in the North the BC Liberals have their only lead with 35%. The BC NDP is at 34% here, and the Greens are at 18%.

Still another three years until the next BC election, but a steep hill for Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberals to climb. The HST, which seems to be the driving issue against Gordon's government, might be forgotten by 2013.

(Ipsos-Reid's poll from Saturday will get a post either today or tomorrow, while Léger Marketing's Quebec poll released today will also get a look this week.)

Projection: 129 CPC, 95 LPC, 51 BQ, 33 NDP

A new projection shows the Conservatives and New Democrats trending upwards, with the Liberals on the down-swing.While the Conservatives are stable at 129 seats, the Liberals have dropped one seat, in Ontario, to 95. The NDP has gained that seat, and they now stand at 33. The Bloc Québécois is steady at 51 seats.

The Conservatives are up 0.1 points to 33.3%, while the Liberals are down 0.4 to 28.0%. The NDP is up 0.2 to 16.8%, while the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.2%.

Starting with Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are now tied at 35.6%. The Tories gained 0.1 points to get there, while the Liberals have dropped 0.4. The NDP is up 0.2 to 16.8% and the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.4%.

In Quebec, the Bloc continues a slow crawl upwards, gaining 0.1 points. They now stand at 38.5%. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 23.1%, while both the Conservatives and NDP are up 0.1 to 17.2% and 12.1%, respectively. The Greens are down 0.1 to 7.4%.

The Conservatives have solidified their lead in British Columbia, with a gain of 0.5 points. They now stand at 36.3%. The NDP is up 0.3 to 26.6%, while the Liberals are down a full point to 22.9%. The Greens are up 0.2 to 12.0%.

The Liberals' only lead (and gain) comes in Atlantic Canada, where they are up 0.5 points to 37.2%. The Conservatives are steady at 32.1% and the NDP is down 0.2 to 23.0%. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 6.1%.

The biggest gain comes in Alberta, where the Conservatives are up 0.6 points to 59.1%. The Liberals are down 0.1 to 16.6% and the NDP is up 0.3 to 11.2%. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 9.9%.

Finally, in the Prairies, the Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 46.4%. The NDP is up 0.4 to 23.1% while the Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.0%. The Greens are down 0.4 points.

Adding up all of these regional gains and losses, we get gains of 1.5 for the Conservatives, 1.1 for the New Democrats, and 0.1 for the Bloc Québécois. The Greens are down 1.3 and the Liberals lose 1.7. In terms of numbers this doesn't mean anything, but it does give a good indication of who were this projection's winners and losers.

For the Tories, the gain in British Columbia is good news. But their big gain in Alberta is more or less wasted, and they made very little progress in Ontario and Quebec. So, while on the face of it, it looks good for the Conservatives, they aren't doing best where they need to.

For the NDP, they made good gains in the Prairies and British Columbia, important regions for them, as well as a gain in Ontario, where it is hard to gain some ground. But further losses in Atlantic Canada hurt them.

The Bloc is now punching above their 2008 electoral weight, so that is good news for them.

The Liberals, however, suffered important losses. A full point in British Columbia is huge, and 0.4 points in Ontario is also very bad. They are losing ground in Quebec as well, and the gap between them and the Bloc now stands at 15.4 points.