December 2011 federal poll averages

Though there has been little change at the national level since November, significant shifts in support did take place in Ontario and Quebec in the last month of 2011 - at the expense and benefit of different parties.

Six federal polls were released during the month of December. Four of them were national polls and two of them were Quebec-only polls. In all, 6,171 Canadians were surveyed in the six polls.

The Conservatives slipped 0.6 points since November and led with an average of 35.5% last month. The New Democrats were down 0.5 points to 28.5%, while the Liberals were down 1.6 points to 21.9%.

The Greens picked up 0.9 points and stood at 6.1%, while the Bloc Québécois gained 0.7 points to reach 5.6% support nationally.

The Conservatives continue to slide in Ontario, dropping 1.7 points since November to 36.4%. This is much lower than the 42% the party had in October. The Liberals dropped 3.8 points to 29.3% in December to the benefit of the NDP. They were at 26.6%, up 3.7 points since last month and their best result since September. The Greens were up 1.9 points to 6.4%.

But while the NDP is up in Ontario, they are dropping in Quebec. The party stood at 45% support in September and October, but they dropped to 32.7% in December, down 4.3 points since November alone. The Bloc Québécois, at 24% (up 1.1 since November), reached their highest level of support since before the May 2011 election. The Conservatives were up 0.5 points to 19.5% while the Liberals were up 1.4 points to 17.4%. That is the best Liberal score since before the election as well. The Greens picked up 1.3 points to reach 4.5%.

There was little real change in British Columbia in December, as the Conservatives picked up 1.9 points and averaged 38.6% in December. The New Democrats picked up 2.1 points to reach 34.6%, their highest total since August 2011. The Liberals were down 1.5 points to 15.9%, while the Greens were down 3.5 points to 9.6%. They had previously been at their peak last month since January 2011.

Atlantic Canada remains a close three-way race, as the Conservatives dropped 0.9 points to 33.6%. December was the third consecutive month of Tory decline in the four Atlantic provinces, however. The New Democrats dropped 4.5 points to 30.3%, their lowest result since the May 2011 election. The Liberals were up 2.7 points to 27.9%, while the Greens were up 2.5 points to 5.1%.

Alberta's voting intentions have been steady, with the Conservatives dropping only 0.3 points to 60%. The New Democrats were up 0.9 points to 19.6% while the Liberals were down 1.4 points to 10.4%. The Greens were stable at 7.1%.

The Conservatives recovered their losses from November in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, gaining 6.5 points to reach 47%. The NDP dropped 3.7 points to 30.4% while the Liberals were down 2.5 points to 15.5%. The Greens were up 2.3 points to 7.1%, their highest level of support since February 2011.

With these levels of support and using the current 308-seat electoral map, the Conservatives win 140 seats, a gain of six since November but a loss of 26 compared to their current standing in the House of Commons.

The New Democrats win 100 seats, a drop of two compared to November. The Liberals win 61 seats, seven fewer than they were projected to win in November but nevertheless 27 more than they currently hold.

The Bloc Québécois wins six seats, a gain of three since November, while the Greens win one.

The Conservatives win 19 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 52 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 12 in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 24 in Ontario, 50 in Quebec, six in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, three in the Prairies, 30 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

But based on the level of uncertainty and error both in the projection and the polls, the Conservatives could win as few as 115 seats or as many as 189. This means that everything from Official Opposition to another majority is possible from these numbers, though a result around 140 is the most likely.

The New Democrats could win as few as 55 seats or as many as 126. This means an NDP minority government is possible with these numbers, though very unlikely. It is also possible that the NDP could finish behind the Liberals in terms of seats. That is more likely than the NDP coming out ahead of the Tories.

In all, the Conservatives would have about an 85% chance of forming government based on these numbers, while the NDP would have a 15% chance.

The Liberals could win as few as 26 seats or as many as 85, making it possible for them to surpass the NDP as the Official Opposition. However, they could also drop behind the Bloc Québécois as their seat range stands at between zero and 31 seats. The Greens could win between one and two. The potential exists, then, for the Greens to win more seats than the Bloc.

As the chart above shows, there is far more overlap between the New Democrats and the Liberals than there is between the Conservatives and the NDP. That is not to say that the battle is one between the NDP and the Liberals. Most of the NDP battles are against the Tories and the Bloc, while most of the Liberal battles are against the Conservatives (mostly in Ontario). The New Democrats, thus, have the most to gain but also the most to lose. I imagine that is going to remain a constant right through to 2015.

The rise of the B.C. Conservatives?

Just before Christmas, two polls were released concerning the provincial situation in British Columbia. One is problematic, and I'll get to that later, but the other shows that the B.C. Liberals and the B.C. Conservatives are tied, well behind the B.C. New Democrats.

This is the first Forum Research poll for British Columbia that I've recorded. It shows the New Democrats ahead with 34%, well below were some of the other polls have situated the NDP. Nevertheless, they have a healthy 11-point lead.

The Liberals and the Conservatives are tied with 23% apiece, a horrible result for Christy Clark but a wonderful one for John Cummins. The Conservatives have not done better than 18% in any poll, but considering that the party has been put in the mid-teens recently it is not unusual to have them so high in this survey.

Oraclepoll had the Liberals at 25% at the end of November, so for Forum to have them so low is also not unlikely. Forum and Oraclepoll are also on the same page when it comes to the Greens.

But one problem we've seen lately in Forum's polls is that the "Other" results are unrealistic. The Alberta poll from December had the Others at 9%. Here it is a more reasonable 5%, but that is still at least three points too high. We've seen these kinds of results in other IVR polls. Perhaps it would be best for firms using the IVR method not to give respondents the "Other" option.

Forum has the NDP ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives by significant margins in most parts of the province, though the 32% to 27% split between them and the Conservatives in the Interior/North is somewhat close. The Liberals are tied with the Conservatives in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, but are ahead of them on Vancouver Island.

The problem appears to be, in part, one of leadership. Clark has an approval rating of only 29%, with 45% of respondents disapproving of her job as premier. Adrian Dix, on the other hand, has a 37% approval rating as leader of the NDP, compared to 28% disapproval. John Cummins, head of the Conservatives, has a 23% approval rating to 32% disapproval.

A complete model for British Columbia is not yet ready, but a simple model gives the New Democrats a majority government with these numbers. They win 57 seats, with the B.C. Liberals taking 18 and the Conservatives winning eight. Two independents are also elected.

It should come as no surprise that the NDP would win by such a large margin against a divided electorate. How the Liberal and Conservative vote will fall, however, is a little trickier. If they have some good candidates they should be electable at this level of support, but I imagine with less of a profile and being a completely new party, they will have some difficulty getting enough support to defeat sitting MLAs in individual ridings.

The other poll released just before Christmas was by the NRG Research Group, a polling firm of which I am unfamiliar. I have a real problem with this poll.

NRG decided to leave the Greens off the survey because the party has opted not to run in by-elections. This, they say, gives a "realistic scenario of the political situation at this time." That is ridiculous. Unless NRG is only polling in ridings where by-elections are scheduled, leaving the Greens off the survey completely (there is no "Other" option in this IVR survey, though they combined "None of the Above" with undecideds) distorts the political situation entirely. When the next provincial election rolls around the Greens will be presenting candidates. Just because they have decided not to contest by-elections does not mean they are no longer a viable party or that anywhere from 5% to 15% of British Columbians intend to vote for them. It boggles the mind.

The results that the poll did yield were 36% for the New Democrats, 32% for the Liberals, 19% for the Conservatives, and 13% "NotA/Undecided", though the preamble in the report only calls that 13% undecided. Transforming that 13% into the Green vote is far too much of a leap for my taste, making this an incomplete survey and one that I wouldn't include in my projection model if it were currently running.

NRG has the NDP leading on Vancouver Island and the North Coast, as well as in the Interior. The Liberals lead in the Lower Mainland, while Conservative support is generally uniform.

But what Forum and, to some extent, this NRG poll suggest is that the B.C. New Democrats have a solid lead going into the last (and only) full year of Christy Clark's Liberal government. It also suggests that the B.C. Conservatives will be an important factor when the next election is held in 2013. One wonders whether Cummins will be handing the NDP a victory by splitting the right-of-centre vote. Perhaps that is too simplistic a view - if the Conservatives were not on the scene would the anti-Liberal vote coalesce around the NDP anyway?

What we know for sure is that the next election in British Columbia should be an interesting one. The last round of provincial elections were relatively ho-hum, but with Alberta, Quebec, and British Columbia on the docket in the next 18 months things are looking up.