Liberals slip in EKOS polling

EKOS Research and iPolitics.ca released a new federal voting intentions poll today, showing that the Liberals have dropped more than three points since December and that the Conservatives and New Democrats are running neck-and-neck.

EKOS was last in the field December 14-21, and since then there has been very little change at the top of the table. The Conservatives are at 31.5% (+0.1) and trailed closely by the NDP at 29.2 (-0.3). The Liberals have seen the biggest shift, dropping 3.1 points to 21.7% support.

The Greens are up 2.2 points to 8.3% while the Bloc Québécois is down 0.7 points to 6% nationally. Support for other parties is up 1.8 points to 3.3%.

EKOS also makes a distinction between eligible voters and likely voters, which they define as people who voted in the May 2 election. It doesn't show major differences this time, however: 32.1% for the Tories, 28.9% for the NDP, and 22.3% for the Liberals. There are no regional breakdowns of likely voters in the EKOS report.

The Conservatives are leading in Ontario with 33.2% (-1.4) with the NDP at 28% (+2.6) and the Liberals at 26.8% (-5.1). The Tories are ahead in Alberta with 53.6% support (-0.8), trailed by the New Democrats (20.4%, +1.0) and the Liberals (13.1%, -3.9), and they also lead in the Prairies with 38.3% (-3.7), narrowly edging out the New Democrats at 34.8% (-3.9). The Liberals are well behind in Saskatchewan and Manitoba with 16.8% (-0.9).

The New Democrats lead in Quebec with 28.3%, down 6.1 points since the end of December. This seems to corroborate the slip in support that other polling firms have recorded in Quebec. The Bloc is running second in the province with 25%, down 2.4 points, while the Liberals stand at 19% (+0.3) and the Tories at 17.2% (-3.3).

The NDP also leads in British Columbia with 36.5% (+0.6). The Conservatives are nipping at their heels with 33.3% support (+4.2), while the Liberals are down 3.7 points to 17.4% in the province. Finally, the New Democrats are also ahead in Atlantic Canada with 34.1% (+6.2), with the Liberals in second at 28.7% (-4.6) and the Conservatives in third at 27.4% (-8.1). EKOS sampled 449 people in Atlantic Canada, the largest sample I have on record since that massive Angus-Reid poll conducted in February 2011. This EKOS poll means that the NDP has led in the region in six of the last seven polls - that's a definite trend.

With these levels of support and using the current 308-seat electoral map, the Conservatives win 127 seats. The New Democrats win 97 and the Liberals 67, giving them a total of 164 seats and enough to govern in tandem with a majority. The Bloc Québécois reaches official party status with 16 seats, while the Greens retain their one seat.

The Tories win 16 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 13 in the Prairies, 52 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, 10 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 15 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 10 in the Prairies, 24 in Ontario, 38 in Quebec, eight in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, five in the Prairies, 30 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

With 338 seats in the House, a rough estimate gives the Conservatives 143 seats, the New Democrats 105, the Liberals 72, the Bloc 17, and the Greens one. So, still enough for an NDP/Liberal majority. But the new seats to be created in Conservative-friendly provinces give them more of an edge - whereas they would hold 41.2% of the seats in the 308-seat House of Commons, that percentage would be increased to 42.3% in the 338-seat legislature. The NDP drops from 31.5% to 31.1% while the Liberals drop from 21.8% to 21.3%.

EKOS also broke down support by how people voted in May 2011, and the results are a little interesting. Generally, all parties but the Greens have retained over 2/3rds of their supporters. But all parties have also picked up a handful of supporters from their rivals, with no real pattern: New Democrats and Liberals to the Tories, Tories and New Democrats to the Liberals, Liberals and Tories to the NDP in roughly equal numbers. The only difference, perhaps, is that the Bloc seems to be doing best among NDP and Green supporters. It's all a little confusing.

What is also somewhat confused is the gap that currently exists between the Tories and the NDP. Is it the 2.3 points that EKOS finds among eligible voters, the 3.2 points it estimates among likely voters, or the eight to 10.5-point gap that the recent surveys from Forum and Nanos identified? It is difficult to argue that the gap is closer to EKOS's findings, as EKOS pegged it as 1.9 points back in December when other polls taken around the same time put it at between five and eight points. In other words, EKOS is showing general stability in voting intentions for the NDP and Conservatives, as other firms have shown. That is most likely what is going on.

NDP third in Quebec

When Forum Research last reported on the federal voting intentions of Quebecers, it made some waves by placing the New Democrats second behind the Liberals. Those waves continue to roll, as their latest survey of 1,589 Quebecers puts the NDP third behind the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals.

Forum was last in the field on February 6, and since then the New Democrats have slipped three more points to 22% support in the province, 21 points behind their May 2011 performance.

The Bloc Québécois has picked up nine points and stands at 29%, followed closely by the Liberals, down two points since early February.

The Conservatives are down seven points to 17%, while the Greens stand at 4%.

It might come as little surprise that a poll that found the Parti Québécois leading by nine points would also show decent results for the Bloc. Perhaps intentions are shifting back to the two sovereigntist parties in the province, or perhaps the poll's focus on provincial issues influenced respondents. However, the same has not appeared to happen in polls from CROP and Léger that survey the federal and provincial voting intentions of Quebecers at the same time.

Most significantly, the Bloc has moved ahead in the francophone electorate with 32% support, well ahead of the Liberals (23%) and the NDP (22%). Among non-francophones, the Liberals are dominant with 46% support to 22% for the NDP and 17% for the Conservatives.

The Bloc leads outside of Montreal and Quebec with roughly 33% support, compared to 23% for the Liberals and 22% for the NDP.

The Liberals are ahead in Montreal with 30% support to 26% for the Bloc and 24% for the NDP, while the Conservatives lead in Quebec City with 37%. The Bloc trails with 22% while the Liberals are third with 20%.

The significance of this poll is reduced by the fact that the NDP has not chosen its next leader - but it does give an indication of how low the party can dip if the choice does not jive with Quebecers. This same poll shows that Quebecers want Thomas Mulcair to lead the party. No other leader comes close to his numbers.

Just as the NDP's generally uniform support throughout Quebec in 2011 helped them win the vast majority of the province's seats, this uniformity means it loses the vast majority of their seats when they drop below their rivals.

With these levels of support, the New Democrats would be reduced to only four seats from their current haul of 58. The Bloc Québécois would fall just short of a majority with 37 seats, while the Liberals would win 22 and the Conservatives 12.

In other words, an unmitigated disaster for the NDP. Assuming nothing else would change outside of Quebec, this would reduce the NDP's representation in the House to only 47 seats, placing them third behind the Liberals, who would have 49 seats. There are, however, enough close races to make it possible for the NDP to retain its position as the Official Opposition, but this is a very simple demonstration of just how important their Quebec support is if the NDP is to keep that role.

Forum has been a bit of an outlier of late in Quebec, however, so we need some other results before we can confidently say that the NDP has slipped this much in the province. The most recent CROP poll would seem to suggest they haven't.

NDP second in Lethbridge

A poll from Lethbridge College on the federal voting intentions of residents in Lethbridge and Coaldale is also worth noting. The poll, conducted February 11-12 and surveying 738 people for an MOE of +/- 3.6%, found that the Conservatives are still comfortably ahead in the two cities with 53.1% support, down a mere 3.3 points since Lethbridge's last poll in 2011. (Note: Coaldale is located within the federal riding of Lethbridge, but parts of the riding, which stretches down to the American border, were not included in this survey.)

What's interesting, however, is how the New Democrats have moved into second in the area, as they have done in the province as a whole. The poll puts the NDP at 23% support in the region, up 12.6 points since a year ago. The Liberals have slipped 2.6 points to 17.9%.

Of course, this only changes the party the Conservatives hold a 30-point lead over. But this survey helps confirm the trend in Alberta that the New Democrats have become the alternative to the Tories in the province. They still have a long way to go, but an extra NDP seat or two in Alberta, particularly in Edmonton, is not impossible in 2015.