Conservatives lead in two polls

It is not a common occurrence for two polls to be released on the same day with both being in the field at the exact same time. But that happened on Friday, as Forum Research and Angus-Reid both published their federal polls conducted on Jan. 16-17, surveying some 3,600 people. And, most shockingly, the polls were not in disagreement about much.

We'll start with the Forum poll. The firm was last in the field Dec. 18, and since then the Conservatives increased their support by five points to 36%, a statistically significant lead. The NDP was unchanged at 28%, while the Liberals were down two points to 25%.

The Bloc Québécois was up one point to 7%, while the Greens were down two to 4%.

The shifts in support for the Conservatives and Greens were outside their respective margins of error.

The Conservatives led in Ontario, where they were up six points to 40%. The NDP and Liberals were tied at 27% in the province. The Tories also led in Alberta with 63%, while the New Democrats jumped nine points to 20% and the Liberals placed third with 11%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives were narrowly ahead with 40% to 36% for the NDP. The Liberals fell eight points to 15%. The Tories also had the advantage in the Prairies, with 49% (+13) to 33% for the NDP and 11% for the Liberals.

The Liberals led in Atlantic Canada with 46%, putting them well ahead of the Conservatives at 28% and the NDP at 23% (a drop of 13 points). The Liberals were also in front in Quebec, with 29% to 26% for the NDP, 25% for the Bloc, and 16% for the Conservatives.

Angus-Reid has been busy this month, as they were last in the field only a few weeks ago on Jan. 2-3. The Conservatives have not budged since then, holding at 35% support. The NDP was down four points to 29%, while the Liberals were up three points to 22%.

The Greens and Bloc Québécois were both unchanged at 6% apiece.

My complaints with both of these firms are the same: Forum should be releasing unweighted data, while Angus-Reid should at the very least be releasing sample sizes for their detailed breakdowns, in addition to their unweighted samples.

The Conservatives also led in this poll in Ontario with 38%. The NDP dropped six points to 29% while the Liberals increased to 26% in the province. In Alberta, the Conservatives led with 62% to 18% for the NDP and 11% for the Liberals, while in the Prairies the Tories led with 53% to 25% for the NDP and 15% for the Liberals.

The Conservatives and NDP were tied in British Columbia with 35% apiece, while the Liberals made an eight-point gain to hit 19% in the province.

The New Democrats led in Quebec with 32%, though that represented an eight-point drop since earlier this month. The Bloc trailed with 25%, while the Liberals were at 21% and the Conservatives at 17%.

The Liberals were in front in Atlantic Canada with 35% to 31% for the Conservatives and 29% for the New Democrats.

These are two very similar polls, with a variance of no more than one point for the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc at the national level, two points for the Greens, and three for the Liberals (here's probably why). We see the same gender split as well (39% or 41% for the Tories among men, 25% or 28% for the NDP, and 31% or 30% for the Conservatives among women, 30% for the NDP). The Conservatives held statistically significant leads in Ontario and Alberta and were ahead in the Prairies, while the race in British Columbia is neck-and-neck. The Liberals were ahead in both polls in Atlantic Canada, and Quebec is a jumble of a three-way race between the NDP, Liberals, and Bloc (pegged at 25% in both polls).

There are some things to note, however. The results in Quebec are particularly interesting. Forum has the Liberals at 29% in the province, a very high score. In fact, in the six polls that have put the Liberals at 29% or more in Quebec since September, five of them have been from Forum. We could be looking at a methodological bias, or that everyone else is under-estimating Liberal support in the province.

Atlantic Canada is a region to keep an eye on, as it appears to be in flux. According to the monthly averages, the New Democrats were leading in the region between April and September, before moving into a tie with the Liberals in October and November and falling to second in December. Both of these polls put the New Democrats in third in Atlantic Canada. The NDP has been in second or third in 12 of the last 15 polls now, and were third in almost half of those.

The seat outcomes from these two polls are mildly different, and only because of the results in Quebec. With Angus-Reid's numbers, the Conservatives would win 162 seats on the 338-seat map, falling just short of a majority. The NDP wins 96 seats, the Liberals 65, the Bloc 14, and the Greens one. Awkwardly for the opposition, the NDP, Liberals, and Greens can combine for only 162 seats - meaning the Bloc Québécois would hold the balance of power.

With poor results in Quebec, the NDP falls to third party status with Forum's numbers, as the Liberals edge them out with 75 seats to 70. The Conservatives win 163 seats, again just short of a majority, while the Bloc returns with 29 seats and the Greens hold their one.

What is costing the Conservatives their majority in these two scenarios? British Columbia and the Prairies, primarily - but also Ontario, where the Tories are not winning the new seats added to the province.

Liberal leadership race

The two polls also quizzed Canadians on the on-going Liberal leadership race, giving us plenty of data to work with. The most interesting to me was the breakdown by Angus-Reid of just how much Canadians know about the candidates:

Aside from Justin Trudeau and, to a lesser extent, Marc Garneau, the answer is not that much.

Trudeau's numbers are by far the best, as 22% claim they "know his background and the ideas he believes in very well". That is a question that is very similar to what CROP recently asked about the Quebec Liberal leadership race, oddly enough.

Garneau was second at 9% on this classification, while everyone else was at 2% or less - political junkies only.

When you add the people who know their background and ideas a little, which is about what you should expect from Canadians this far from an election, Trudeau's advantage is amplified. Fully 48% have a decent idea of him, 70% if you include those who know him very well. That is huge, and Garneau hardly competes with a combined 42% awareness. Martin Cauchon places third with 15% (13% know him a little) while Martha Hall Findlay ranks fourth at 13% (11% know her a little). No one cracks 10% after that.

One in five Canadians recognize the name only of Trudeau, Cauchon, Hall Findlay, and Deborah Coyne (perhaps confused by her columnist cousin), while one in four recognize Garneau's name (likely due to his astronaut past). But over 62% of Canadians have never heard of the candidates outside of Trudeau and Garneau, and that increases to over 70% for the bottom five and 80% for the bottom three.

Forum finds that 34% of Canadians think Trudeau is the best option, though that is a drop of five points since their December poll. He is followed at length by Garneau (10%), while no one else does better than 3% (Hall Findlay and Cauchon managed that). Among Liberal supporters, Trudeau's lead increases to 63% to 6% for Garneau. Hall Findlay and Joyce Murray managed 3%.

Accordingly, 55% of Canadians think Trudeau will win (according to Angus-Reid). Another 7% think Garneau will win, while no more than 1% give any of the others a chance. Trudeau and Garneau are the most appealing to voters, as 40% told Angus-Reid a Trudeau win would make them more likely to vote Liberal. 23% said the same for Garneau, while no more than 7% said another candidate would make them more likely to vote Liberal.

More specifically, in a head-to-head match-up with the other parties Forum gives a Trudeau-led party the lead with 35% to 33% for the Conservatives and 21% for the NDP. Fair warning, however: that is a drop of four points for the Trudeau Liberals since December. Angus-Reid finds something similar, giving the Trudeau Liberals 34% of the vote to 33% for the Tories and 22% for the NDP - a drop of eight points since earlier this month.

Forum didn't ask about the other candidates, but Angus-Reid did: Garneau improves Liberal fortunes slightly to 25%, while Hall Findlay drags them down to 19% and Cauchon to 17%.

The votes are there for the taking, though. Angus-Reid founds that 38% say they are very or moderately likely to vote Liberal in the next election. To be precise, 14% said they were very likely to vote Liberal (the base) while 24% said they were moderately likely (the swing voters). These polls suggest that only Trudeau and Garneau are likely to attract many of those swing voters to the Liberal fold.

Liberals gain in Interior but B.C. NDP still heavily favoured

The probability of the B.C. New Democrats winning the popular vote and, quite likely, the election on May 14 has increased from 91.7% to 94.6%, despite the B.C. Liberals making important gains in the B.C. Interior and North.

With the release of a new poll by Angus-Reid, the vote and seat forecasts for the upcoming British Columbia election have been updated. As of Jan. 18, the last day that Angus-Reid was in the field, the NDP is projected to win between 45 and 74 seats, with the most likely outcome being 57 seats. The B.C. Liberals are projected to win between nine and 40 seats, with 27 seats being the most likely result. If an election were held today, the New Democrats would have a 96.4% chance of winning it.

Since the last projection, which was based on polling data as of Nov. 30, the New Democrats have dropped 0.7 points to 47.8% support, while the Liberals have dropped 0.9 points to 32.2%. The B.C. Conservatives have hardly budged, down 0.1 point to 10.4%, while the B.C. Greens are up 1.7 points to 7.8%. (It is worth noting that all of these results are within the range forecasted for Nov. 30's data). The projected vote ranges for the Conservatives and Greens do overlap (at 8.4% to 12.4% and 6% to 9.6%, respectively), while those of the NDP and Liberals do not. The Liberals are projected to take no more than 35.3% of the vote, compared to a low of 44.5% for the New Democrats.

The likely forecast also does not foresee a scenario in which the Liberals move ahead of the New Democrats in the popular vote, with a forecast high of 41.2% for the Liberals on May 14. Nevertheless, there is still an outside chance that the Liberals could win as many as 57 seats on election night, with the NDP winning as few as 25. That is, of course, a very unlikely outcome. In fact, the forecast high for the Liberals has dropped by six seats, while the forecast low for the NDP has increased by three. The scenarios in which the Liberals come out victorious are dwindling.

Indeed, the likelihood of the Liberals finishing first in the popular vote are extremely low: 5.4%, down from 8.3% on Nov. 30. In other words, in only one out of 20 cases would the Liberals be expected to overcome a 15.6-point deficit in fewer than 120 days before an election. The amount of runway remaining for Christy Clark is running out.

There is some good news for the Liberals, however. Their projected support in the Interior and North has increased 5.2 points to 38.8%, putting them less than three points behind the NDP, who are down 4.3 points in the region. As a result, the Liberals are now projected to win 16 seats, an increase of seven. The NDP dropped seven seats to 15, meaning the Liberals are in a better position to win more seats than the NDP in the region as a whole. However, the forecasted high and low results for the NDP are more favourable.

The NDP's position has also improved in Vancouver, where the party is up one point to 48% support. The Liberals dropped 4.2 points to 30.7%, and in the process dropped three seats to the New Democrats. The NDP is forecast to win no fewer than 17 seats, and as many as 38, in the metropolitan region on May 14.

The Greens made the biggest gain of any party in any region on Vancouver Island, up 6.1 points to 13%. They have displaced the Conservatives in third place, while the NDP and Liberals were both down more than a point (the NDP picked up a seat). The Greens are still not projected to be in range of any seats on Vancouver Island based on current levels of support, but the forecast does put two seats in play for the party. The most likely scenario, though, is an NDP sweep.

The poll that prompted the projection update did not have too many changes from Angus-Reid's last survey from November. Since then, the New Democrats dropped one point and decreased to 46% support, while the Liberals were up two points to 31%. The Conservatives were down two points to 10%, while the Greens were up one to 10%. Support for other parties and independents increased one point to 3%.

All of these shifts are within the margin of error (assuming random samples, of course, which an online poll does not have). Angus-Reid also still does not put sample sizes in their regional breakdowns, something which absolutely should be done.

The Liberals are certainly trending upwards in Angus-Reid's polling: 22% in July, 25% in September, 26% in October, 29% in November, and now 31% in January. But the party has been gaining one to three points each month, and only four months remain between now and the election. That means if the trend continues, the party could pick up between four and 12 points - putting them between 35% and 43%. Over that time, the NDP has scored between 46% and 49% in every poll, without any discernible trend. If the Liberals do get to over 40% on election night, much of it will likely have come from the Conservatives. It won't be enough unless they start seriously eating into NDP support.

Regionally, the New Democrats led in Vancouver with 46%, and were trailed by the Liberals at 29% and the Conservatives at 13%. The NDP was also in the lead on Vancouver Island with 51% (down 11 points). The Liberals were second with 27% and the Greens had 17%. The NDP was ahead in the North with 45% to 32% for the Liberals and 13% for the Greens.

In the Interior, however, the Liberals moved into a tie with the NDP at 39%. The Greens placed third with 11%, while the Conservatives dropped seven points to 9%. That drop in Conservative support appears to be real, but the gains of the Liberals and the small loss incurred by the NDP could be statistical wobbling. It does make intuitive sense, though, to assume that the gain made by the Liberals is not an anomaly and that Conservative support is indeed drifting disproportionately to the Liberals in the Interior. That is not necessarily trouble for the NDP as they still hold wide leads in Vancouver and on the Island, but it is the first step towards a Liberal recovery, if one is to occur.

The poll showed no significant changes in personal ratings for the leaders, with Adrian Dix leading on the Best Premier question with 29% to 19% for Clark and 5% for Cummins. Dix still has the best approval rating at 46% to 34% disapproval. Clark scored 31% and 56% on approval and disapproval, while John Cummins's approval rating is a woeful 13%. His disapproval rating is almost as high as Clark's, at 51%, and this despite 36% not sure of their opinion of him (compared to 13% not-sures for Clark).

Dix still holds a major advantage over Clark, as he is seen as the best leader on the issues of health care, crime, the economy, education, and federal-provincial relations. He only trails Jane Sterk on the environment, as one might expect. The top issue is still the economy for British Columbians (increasing to 28%), and Dix still has the edge over Clark on a question that is supposed to be an NDP leader's Achilles' heel. It is hard to see a route for a comeback for the Liberals.