B.C. Liberals narrow the gap slightly

With a new poll from the B.C.-based Mustel Group hitting the wire yesterday, the projection now shows a slightly closer race between the B.C. Liberals and B.C. New Democrats heading towards the May 14 election. Nevertheless, the probability that the NDP will win the popular vote on that day is still 93.4%, down from 94.6% as of Jan. 18.

The Mustel poll was in the field between Jan. 11 and 21, providing only a little bit of newer information than the Angus-Reid poll that was in the field Jan. 17 and 18. The margin in the poll (10 points) is the narrowest in any survey since March 2012, though that poll was also by Mustel. The last time that the gap between the two parties was 10 points or less on a regular basis was in November 2011. So this poll does show some change.

The projection with all available polling data as of Jan. 21 shows the New Democrats with 46.5% of the vote, down 1.3 points from Jan. 18. The Liberals have 32.9%, up 0.7 points, while the B.C. Conservatives trail with 10.7% (+0.3) and the B.C. Greens with 8.2% (+0.7). The projection range has dropped down for the NDP while the Liberals' range has increased, though the two parties still do not overlap (projected low of 43.7% for the NDP and projected high of 35.6% for the Liberals).

In terms of seats, the NDP has slipped one to 56, with the Liberals increasing to 28. One independent is projected to be (re-)elected as well. Nevertheless, despite the decrease in the NDP's seat projection, the party would still have a 95.2% chance of winning an election held today. The projected seat margin is simply too wide for the Liberals to be able to overcome it, even assuming the polls and the model are faulty (these are taken into account to calculate the probabilities). The projected low for the NDP is still in majority territory, with the party at between 44 and 69 seats. The Liberals could win between 13 and 41 seats, while between zero and four independents could be elected.

Looking forward to May 14, the forecast still considers a Liberal win to be a possibility. Their probability of winning the popular vote has increased slightly from 5.4% to 6.6%, but those are still very long odds. The forecast high for the Liberals is only 41.9%, while the forecasted low for the NDP is 40.5% (note that the projected vote has yet to fall outside the previous update's forecast). But if the numbers did hit those extremes and the regional distribution was especially beneficial to the Liberals, they could win as many as 59 seats. That is an absolutely best case scenario, however. The NDP could also win a landslide of 82 seats. With so much time still remaining between now and the election, almost anything is possible.

Regionally, the New Democrats slipped in metro Vancouver to 47.3% from 48%, and were down two seats due to the Liberals increasing by 1.4 points to 32.4%. The Conservatives took the biggest hit, dropping 1.7 points to 11.6%.

The NDP also dropped on Vancouver Island, decreasing 2.6 points to 50.2%. The Liberals fell, by 1.5 points, while the Conservatives were up 2.9 points to 8.4% and the Greens were up a point to 14%.

In the B.C. interior and north, the New Democrats had a tiny uptick of 0.2 points to hit 41.8%, while the Liberals dropped 1.6 points to 37.2%. The Conservatives were up 2.2 points to 11.7%.

The Mustel poll was relatively small, with a sample of 509 British Columbians. That is standard for the firm, however. They were last in the field Sept. 4-19, and since then the NDP dropped two points to 43% and the Liberals gained one to reach 33%.

Though that is a narrowing of the gap by three points, the +/- 4.3% margin of error needs to be emphasized. Neither of those shifts were statistically significant, and rather than consider that the gap could be even narrower we should, based on other data, lean in the opposite direction.

On the other hand, the swapping of seven points from the Conservatives to the Greens, putting them in a tie at 11%, was outside of the margin of error. It is difficult to imagine why the Conservatives would be shedding voters to the Greens. It could be the 'protest vote', or it could be something else entirely, i.e. Conservatives going to the Liberals, Liberals going to the NDP, and New Democrats going to the Greens, or just a product of the small sample size.

Mustel passed along some interesting regional variations, but the extremely small samples make them almost meaningless. But they do make some intuitive sense: the New Democrats doing very well in the city of Vancouver but in a neck-and-neck fight with the Liberals in the suburbs, and better numbers for the NDP in the north than in the southern interior.

But the numbers on Vancouver Island are the most fascinating. They put the Greens and Liberals in almost a tie for second place, while in and around Victoria itself the Greens are running a very strong second. However, the small sample sizes (with a crippling MOE of +/- 17 points) could make the numbers nothing more than a mirage. Nevertheless, they do match some of the scuttlebutt for the region.

The Mustel poll continues to show a gender problem for Christy Clark, as her party is running only four points behind the NDP among men but 17 points among women. Her approval rating stands at 38% in this poll, unchanged from Mustel's last survey, while her disapproval is 45%. Adrian Dix's approval rating increased to 45%, while his disapproval rating dropped six points to only 24%. But 32% still expressed no opinion.

Having a survey from Mustel is great for the aggregation, as they use live callers. Angus-Reid and Ipsos-Reid (at least in B.C.) use online panels while Forum uses IVR. It is good to have a mix of methodologies. But because of those different methodologies, and the somewhat different results they produce, it is difficult to assess what is going on in British Columbia. Is the gap narrowing? Have the New Democrats moved away from 50% support? We need more data.

Pre-Wynne, NDP led in Ontario

Just before the first ballot results of the Ontario Liberal leadership convention were to be announced, the Toronto Star released a Forum Research poll on the voting intentions of Ontarians. The poll showed that the  New Democrats narrowly led over the Progressive Conservatives, and that the leadership of Kathleen Wynne or Sandra Pupatello wouldn't change a thing. Will that hold?

Forum was last in the field on Dec. 17, and since then the NDP increased their support by four points to 35%. That gave them the advantage over the PCs, who slipped one point to 32%. The Liberals were unchanged at 27%, while the Greens were down three points to 5%.

The margin between the NDP and Tories is not statistically significant, but the changes in support of the New Democrats and Greens are (just).

The New Democrats were ahead in the 905 area code with 36%, trailed by the Tories at 30% and the Liberals at 28%. They were also ahead in the wider GTA with 34% to 32% for the Liberals and 28% for the PCs.

In southwestern Ontario, the NDP picked up 12 points to lead with 39%, putting them ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, who were down to 35%. The Liberals dropped eight points to only 18% in the region.

The NDP also had the advantage in northern Ontario with 42% to 30% for the PCs and 22% for the Liberals.

The Progressive Conservatives led only in eastern Ontario, with 42% to 28% for the Liberals and 24% for the New Democrats. The Liberals, meanwhile, were ahead only in the 416 area code, with 37% to 33% for the NDP and 25% for the PCs.

Most of the changes in support were within the margin of error, so we could be looking at a lot of statistical wobbling. On the face of it, though, it does appear that the Liberals experienced an uptick in Toronto while the NDP made gains in rural (eastern, southwestern, and northern) Ontario. Interestingly, the only major change in support occurred in southwestern Ontario, the only region of the province in which Sandra Pupatello's numbers were better than the generic ballot (23%). With her defeat, the Liberals might not expect to recover in southwestern Ontario anytime soon.

But the election of Wynne or Pupatello would not have changed much. Forum found that, under Wynne, the Liberals would have 26% support to 34% for the NDP and 32% for the PCs. For completely logical reasons, a Wynne leadership pushes one point from the Liberals (and the NDP as well, of course) to the Greens. In other words, her leadership of the party should not change anything in the short term - at least according to these numbers. Pupatello had an identical result, except the PCs dropped a point too. Gerard Kennedy would have done better, with 30% to the NDP's 32% and the Tories' 31%, but that is academic at this point.

With Ontarians' current voting intentions province wide, the Progressive Conservatives could eke out a tiny minority with 40 seats, to 37 for the New Democrats and 30 for the Liberals. The margin is close enough that if this were my final projection in an election campaign, I'd only give the Progressive Conservatives a 45% chance of winning the most seats (33% for the NDP and 22% for the Liberals). Put simply, a toss-up forecast.

The regional distribution is still quite stark, with the Tories winning 31 of their 40 seats in eastern, central, and southwestern Ontario, while the Liberals win 26 of their 30 in and around Toronto.

Note that this projection is based on the province-wide numbers. If it were regionally based (as the model will be when the next election rolls around), the NDP could do even better, winning more seats in the GTA and likely enough to put them narrowly ahead of the Tories.

The ace up their sleeve has to be Andrea Horwath, as she has an approval rating that is head-and-shoulders above her rivals. More than half, or 51%, approve of her, compared to 28% who disapprove. Still, one-in-five don't know what they think of her. New Democrats are almost unanimous, though: they give her an 80% approval rating.

Tim Hudak does worse among Tories, with 59% approval. Among Ontarians as a whole, he gets 27% approval to 53% disapproval. This is still a major problem for the PCs, just as Dalton McGuinty was a problem for the Liberals. His approval rating was 21% to 71% disapproval on the eve of his departure, with only 48% of Liberal supporters approving of him.

Will Ontarians warm up to Kathleen Wynne? Her numbers were improving as the convention approached. Only 8% of Ontarians thought she was the best choice to be OLP leader in November, improving to 23% in December and 25% just before the weekend. That still put her behind Pupatello (26%) and Kennedy (33%), but not by the same margins as in previous polls. Among Liberals, she was the choice of 27%, within the margin of error of Pupatello (28%) and Kennedy (33%). By that score, the Ontario Liberals did not make a bad choice.

Undoubtedly, a rash of polls will break out in the coming weeks as we try to gauge where the party stands now that Wynne is the premier and the province could potentially be heading to an election soon. If her numbers are good, we might see the NDP being a bit more amenable to compromise and the Liberal minority could survive. If her numbers are not, both Horwath and Hudak might turn the screws.