B.C. New Democrats still in control

There have been few major changes in the projection and forecast for the British Columbia provincial election, but all that means is that the time remaining for the B.C. Liberals to turn things around has continued to shrink. The odds that the party would be able to comeback and beat the B.C. New Democrats in the popular vote are still less than 50-to-1.

The New Democrats continue to lead with a projected 48.7% of the vote, down 1.2 points from the projection of Mar. 25 (which used polling data running to Mar. 19). The Liberals are down 0.5 points to 29.9%, while the B.C. Conservatives remain steady at 10.4%. The B.C. Greens picked up 1.7 points and are now projected to have 9.2% support.

Due to Liberal gains in the B.C. Interior, the party has picked up one seat since Mar. 25 and is now projected to win 21. The New Democrats dropped one to 63, while one independent is projected to win. In terms of the ranges, the New Democrats would be expected to win between 51 and 73 seats if an election were held today, compared to between 9 and 33 seats for the Liberals and 0-4 for the independents.

Problematic for the Liberals is that the high forecast for May 14 has fallen from 54 to only 43 seats - the bare minimum for a majority government. As time runs out, even the absolute best case scenario is precarious for the party.

Regionally, things are relatively steady in Metro Vancouver and in the Interior/North. In and around the city, the NDP leads with 50.9% (-0.4 points) to 30.9% for the Liberals (-0.7) and 8.9% for the Conservatives (-0.5). The Greens made a 1.5-point gain to reach 6.9%.

In the Interior and North, the NDP is down 1.6 points to 41.3%, costing them one seat. The Liberals made their only regional gain here, picking up a bare 0.7 points to reach 32.7%. The Conservatives are down 0.6 points to 14.7% while the Greens are up 1.6 points to 9.7%.

There was more movement on Vancouver Island, where the Greens are up 2.4 points to 13.8%. The New Democrats are down 3.7 points to 51.7% and the Liberals 1.9 points to 23.2%. The Conservatives made the largest gain anywhere here, with a 3.1-point uptick to 10.5%.

The update was brought about by a new poll from Insights West, a polling firm based in British Columbia that was launched last year and whose president had previously been with Ipsos-Reid. This is their first foray into provincial politics, as far as I can tell, and the results are well within the norm of what other surveys have shown. Insights West also has very good disclosure, with its report containing both weighted and unweighted samples. They use their own panel for their polling.

The survey shows 45% for the NDP, 28% for the Liberals, 15% for the Greens, and 10% for the Conservatives. They are neither the highest nor lowest recent results for the NDP, Liberals, or Conservatives - but they are on the high-end for the Greens. We will have to see what the other firms say about the Greens as the campaign kicks off.

The Conservatives being at 10% is interesting, in part because it is within two points of where 10 of the last 11 polls have pegged the party's support to be. Why is that interesting? Because the UBC prediction market has consistently had the Conservatives at or just under 20% since mid-March. Whatever the market is recording, the polls have yet to see.

One in five respondents were undecided in this survey. The undecideds did lean slightly to the B.C. Liberals (25% to 20%), but not nearly enough to make much difference. The gender gap remains, with the NDP enjoying an 11-point advantage among men but a 24-point edge among women. They also lead by 18 points among voters aged 55 and over, a key demographic.

At the regional level, there are few surprises in this poll. The New Democrats are well ahead in both Vancouver and on Vancouver Island, while the race is closer in the Interior and North. The strong Green result on Vancouver Island has been noted before in other polls, though this is the highest result I have on record.

Steady as she goes, then. The campaign will need to shake things up radically in order to put the result in any doubt, but it will be interesting to see where the Green numbers go from here. For many British Columbians, voting for the Greens might become a very plausible option if the NDP looks like it is set to easily win - their vote might not be wasted or inadvertently send a Liberal to Victoria. Too much of that sentiment in NDP-Liberal races, though, and the New Democrats could be in trouble in a few individual ridings.

Friday update: By-election polling and Liberal leadership

This week's Friday update takes a look at new by-election polling in Labrador, new forecasts for the pending provincial by-elections in Ontario, updates to the Liberal leadership endorsement rankings, and discussion of the newest national poll.

Ipsos-Reid puts Liberals first

The polling has been coming fast and furious this week, but it has also been remarkably consistent. The latest missive is from Ipsos-Reid. I'll try to give the poll a deeper look next week, but it gives the Liberals 32% to 31% for the Conservatives and 27% for the New Democrats. It is yet another poll to put the Liberals at or above 30%, the Conservatives below 32%, and the NDP at or below 27%. It makes for a very tight grouping of polls.

As a result, the Liberals now lead by the tiniest of margins in the weighted average, with 30.7% to 30.5% support. Some of the regional numbers are interesting as well: the Liberals are almost tied with the Tories in Ontario, and are now ahead by more than three points in Quebec. That Ipsos gave the Liberals 32% in the province is interesting, as prior to this survey it had mostly been Forum that was bullish on the Liberals in Quebec.

Note that the reason the newer Ipsos-Reid poll has a lower weight in the average than the Forum poll is that the model considers the Ipsos-Reid poll to be older. As it was in the field between March 28 and April 3, it has a median date of March 31, whereas Forum was just in the field on April 2.

Also note that, despite what was reported in articles by Global and Postmedia, this Ipsos-Reid poll is not a hypothetical "what-if" Trudeau poll. Ipsos-Reid did not mention Trudeau's name in the voting intentions question.

Improving Liberal fortunes in Labrador and London West, worsening ones in Windsor-Tecumseh

With all of the new polling, the by-election forecast for Labrador has been updated and it remains rough for the Conservatives. The polling in Atlantic Canada has been extremely consistent, showing the Liberals at over 40% and the Conservatives at under 20%. That means the swing is strongly in favour of the Liberals, who average a victory margin of 43.6 points when the regional swing from the last month's worth of polls is applied to the riding.

Backing that up is a poll from Forum Research for Labrador. The short of it is that it gives Yvonne Jones a 36-point lead, with 57% to 21% for Harry Borlase of the NDP and 20% for Peter Penashue of the Tories.

I lay out the caveats for this poll in today's article for The Huffington Post Canada. Check it out.

Overall, it keeps Labrador a Strong Liberal forecast.

The numbers are also good for the Liberals in London West, as the polling picture has brightened for the Ontario Liberals in southwestern Ontario. The riding is now a Likely Liberal win, up from a Lean Liberal.

Conversely, the situation has gotten better for the New Democrats in Windsor-Tecumseh, as it is now a Strong New Democrat forecast, up from a Likely NDP win. Why the difference? Simply that there has been a drop in the number of polls in the last month in Ontario, making it more difficult to judge the volatility between polls. When that happens, the ranges tighten up and the NDP's low forecast pulls ahead of the high forecast for the Liberals.

Justin Trudeau's endorsement edge remains enormous

Also updated today were the endorsement rankings for the Liberal leadership race. Quite a number of endorsements have been added to the rankings, but it doesn't change much.

Joyce Murray did get the nod from Peter Milliken, while Gordon Wilson (former B.C. Liberal leader) and Judi Tyabji (former B.C. MLA) improve her numbers in British Columbia. She now has 33% of the endorsement points in the province, the only one where the race between her and Justin Trudeau is competitive (at least from an endorsement stand point).

But the list of Trudeau endorsers grew even larger, with a long list of senators added and former provincial leaders David Peterson and Yvonne Jones, among others.

Overall, it meant a marginally worsening share of the endorsement points for Trudeau, who dropped below 90% on the weighted rankings (to 89.9%). He is still miles ahead of Murray and the other contestants, however, who have not been able to attract a single endorsement that is counted in the rankings (all of Martin Cauchon's and Martha Hall Findlay's points come from their self-endorsements). Only a gimmicky turnout shock would prevent Trudeau from winning the race at this point - the greatest danger he faces (and it is a small one) is that too many people will consider his victory so inevitable that they don't bother to vote. Not a bad position to be in.