November 2014 federal polling averages

The federal polling averages for the month of November bring up what could be an important question next year: was this the moment that Stephen Harper set himself back on track for re-election? While the Conservatives still trail Justin Trudeau's Liberals (for the 20th consecutive month), the numbers they put up in November were the best they have seen since before Trudeau became leader.

A total of five national and one Quebec poll was conducted during the month of November, totaling 15,672 interviews. Note that I have included the recent Ipsos Reid poll in the November averages. Though my usual practice is to only base a poll's inclusion in a given month on its last day in the field, the Ipsos poll required that an exception be made. The poll ended on December 1, but 96% of it was conducted during November.

The Liberals led in November with an average of 34.7% support, down 0.9 points from where they stood in October. This is the fourth consecutive month of stagnation or loss for the Liberals, who were at 39% in July.

The Conservatives gained 2.5 points to reach 32%, their best since February 2013. 

The New Democrats were down 0.8 points to 21.7%, while the Greens were down 0.4 points to 6%. Support for the Bloc Québécois was at 4.1%, and 1.4% of Canadians said they supported another party.

If we compare this month's numbers to past averages in November, we get an interesting look at how things have been shifting over the last five years. The overall Conservative drop and Liberal gain is clear, as is the fact that the NDP is still well above where it was prior to the 2011 election. And the downfall of the Bloc is stark.

The Conservatives and Liberals were tied in British Columbia for the second consecutive month, each with 32.1% support. That was a gain of 0.6 points for the Tories and a pick-up of 0.3 points for the Liberals. The NDP was up 0.5 points to 23.6%, while the Greens were down a point to 10.2%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives averaged 57.5% support, a gain of 7.4 points and their best numbers since January 2013. The Liberals were down 3.8 points to 20.9%, their lowest since April 2014, and the NDP was up 2.5 points to 14.1%. The Greens were down 4.5 points to 5.4%.

The Prairies have been remarkably stable of late, with the Conservatives at 39.3% (they have been at 39% for three consecutive months) and the Liberals up one point to 32.2%. The party has been between 31% and 33% for the last five months. The NDP was down 4.7 points to 19.5%, their lowest since April 2014. The Greens were up 3.7 points to 7.9%, their highest since May 2013.

The Liberals have reverted to the level of support they consistently showed in Ontario between August 2013 and June 2014, falling 2.3 points to 38.1%. The Conservatives were up 1.5 points to 35.7%, their best since January 2013. The NDP was down 0.7 points to 18.9%, and over the last five months have been at their lowest level of support in the province since before the 2011 election. The Greens were up 0.4 points to 5.3%.

Click to magnify

In Quebec, the Liberals were down 0.7 points to 32.2%, their lowest since June 2014. The New Democrats were down 1.4 points to 29.7%, continuing their steady run now stretching to 11 months in which the party has managed between 28% and 31% support in Quebec (with the fleeting exception of June, when the party was at 34%). The Bloc was up 1.1 points to 16.9%, while the Conservatives were at their highest since January 2013 with a gain of two points to 16.3%. The Greens were down 0.2 points to 4.1%.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals were up 2.5 points to 51.2%, the Conservatives were up 1.5 points to 23.5%, and the NDP was down 0.9 points to 20.6%. The region has been among the steadiest in the country. The Liberals have averaged between 49% and 52% over the last six months, while the Conservatives have averaged between 21% and 24% over that time. And for the last 14 months, the NDP has been stuck at between 18% and 23% in the region. The Greens averaged 4.3% here in November, down 2.8 points from last month.

With these levels of support, the Conservatives barely win a plurality of seats despite trailing in the popular vote by almost three points. They'd take 133 seats, a gain of 11 since last month, while the Liberals drop eight seats to 128. The NDP would win 74, down three, while the Greens and Bloc would be unchanged at two and one seat, respectively.

The Conservatives picked up six seats in Ontario, three in the Prairies, and one each in Alberta and Quebec.

The Liberals dropped seven seats in Ontario and one in Alberta.

The New Democrats dropped three seats in the Prairies and one in Quebec, but picked up one in Ontario.

With now less than a year to go before the vote is held (and even less if you listen to some of the chatter in Ottawa), the lay of the land is shifting a little. The Liberals still lead, but the Conservatives are now in a position where they could plausibly come out ahead in seats. The New Democrats are still an important factor, but are now 10 points out of second place. Of course, that is where they were before the campaign kicked off in 2011, but it seems unlikely that a party can pull off the same trick twice. 

While there is still a lot of potential for movement, it may take the campaign to get things really unstuck. The Conservatives polled an average of between 33% and 38% in the 11 months before the 2011 campaign got started, while the Liberals were steady at between 26% and 30%. Before the NDP's breakthrough, they wouldn't budge from a range of 15% to 18%. If we apply those +/- to current numbers, we'd get the Liberals at between 31% and 39%, the Conservatives between 27% and 37%, and the NDP between 19% and 25%.  By that standard, the next 11 months may look a lot like the last 20. And then the campaign starts.

Gap closes between Liberals and Tories in new Ipsos Reid poll

We have been starved for new polling data of late, so what better way to feed the beast than with a massive poll with a sample of over 8,000 people and breakdowns for every province (and even the GTA)?

Last night, Global News reported on the newest survey from Ipsos Reid conducted over three weeks between November 10 and December 1. The numbers continue the trend of softening Liberal support and a Conservative Party that, either by default or due to a small uptick, has moved into a near-tie with Justin Trudeau's party.

The Liberals were nevertheless ahead in the poll with 34% support, a drop of four points since Ipsos Reid's previous survey of September 9-12. The Conservatives increased by two points to move to 33%. The New Democrats were up one point to 24%.

Support for the Bloc Québécois was unchanged at 5%, while support for other parties was up one point to 4%. Note that, as is usually the case with Ipsos's polling, that includes the Greens.

Only the drop in support for the Liberals would be outside the margin of error of similarly sized probabilistic samples, and it is really the only trend we can definitively identify. Other pollsters have also recorded a drop in Liberal support from the highs of the summer. The numbers appear to be returning to where things were in the spring - in fact, Ipsos's poll of April 17-22 had the spread at 33% for both the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP at 24%.

But are the Conservatives in the midst of an upward swing? The evidence is accumulating that their numbers are improving, but the size of the uptick is exaggerated by the steeper decrease in Liberal support. The party has gone from 38% in Ipsos's previous two surveys to 34% here, whereas the Conservatives have gone from 31% in the previous two surveys to 33%. It looks more like a reset or wobble than momentum, but we will have to see where things go from here.

That the Ipsos poll was taken over three weeks does give us an indication that the Conservatives may be building up steam. Between November 10 and 24 (the bulk of the sample with 5,034 decided voters) the Conservatives were around 32% to 33%, while the Liberals were around 34% to 35%. The last week of polling (the smallest of the three samples, though still 1,468 decided voters) had the Tories at 35% and the Liberals at 33%. A statistical fluke or a sign of things to come?

The Conservatives had a small edge in this poll among men with 36% to 35% for the Liberals (and 21% for the NDP), while the Liberals were ahead more comfortably among women (34% to 30%, with the NDP at 27%).

Other tidbits from this large-sample survey: the Liberals led among voters between the ages of 18 and 54, while the Conservatives were ahead among voters over the age of 55. A turnout advantage may be hiding there.

The more educated a person was, the more likely they were to support the Liberals, while the less educated a person was the more likely they were to support the Conservatives. Greater wealth meant a greater likelihood of support for either the Conservatives or Liberals, while as income dropped support for the NDP and Bloc increased.

And of particular note, considering the Conservative family-friendly policies unveiled over the last few weeks, is that the Liberals are actually doing better among households with children. They were up in these with 35% to 32% for the Conservatives. The two parties were tied at 34% in households with no children. Perhaps it is not the game-changing policy the Conservatives are hoping it will be. In fact, compared to the September poll the Conservatives made more of their gains among households without children.

At the regional level, the Conservatives and Liberals were tied in Ontario with 37% apiece, while the NDP was in third with 22%.

In Quebec, the Liberals were at 32%, followed by the NDP at 29% and the Bloc Québécois at 21%. With the exception of a single EKOS poll that put the party at 22% in October, that is the best result the Bloc has managed since Mario Beaulieu took over the party in June. The Conservatives had 15%.

The Conservatives were ahead in British Columbia with 33%, followed by the NDP at 30% and the Liberals at 28%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives were at 58% to 24% for the Liberals and 14% for the NDP.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives led with 41% to 33% for the Liberals and 23% for the NDP, with support for other parties jumping three points to 4%. The Greens have been putting up some oddly good numbers in the Prairies in recent polls, which coincides with this Ipsos uptick that is outside the margin of error. Something to watch?

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals led with 53% to 26% for the Conservatives and 19% for the NDP.

But because of the large sample in this poll, Ipsos kindly broke down the numbers even further. Let's take a look.

With the exception of PEI and, to a lesser extent, Newfoundland and Labrador, all of these are respectable samples.

Some of the numbers fall well in line with the sporadic results we've seen from other pollsters. The Liberal lead in Toronto is much like what we've seen elsewhere (and at the provincial level), while the closer race with stronger Conservative numbers in the 905 area code are not unusual. They do suggest that the Tories are not dead in the water in the GTA.

The numbers in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick are well within the margins of what we usually see from the Corporate Research Associates when they put out federal results - big Liberal leads throughout. The numbers in PEI look a lot like the 2011 results, though CRA tends to give the Liberals a bigger lead here as well.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba are quite different from what we usually see from EKOS, the only pollster regularly putting out numbers for the two provinces. EKOS usually has the NDP in second in Saskatchewan and the Liberals either neck-and-neck with the Conservatives or first in Manitoba. If the Liberals are really that strong in Saskatchewan, we could see another MP from the province to join Ralph Goodale.

With these numbers, including the provincial-level results for the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, the likely seat outcome would be as follows.

Despite the one-point deficit, the Conservatives would come out on top with 132 seats, followed by the Liberals at 118 and the NDP at 83. The Bloc would win four seats again, and the Greens would take one.

The Liberals are unable to win the plurality of seats despite having the plurality of votes as they are penalized primarily in British Columbia, where they are only two points back from the NDP, and Quebec, where they are three points up on that party.

Though relations between the Liberals and New Democrats appear to be at an all-time low at the moment, it is worth noting that the two parties could easily combine for a majority government. Otherwise, the Conservatives would have some difficulty governing in this scenario.

House effects?

I wanted to take a moment to discuss the topic of house effects in relation to this poll. I often see comments along the lines of this or that pollster being biased towards one party or the other. The search for house effects is certainly a legitimate exercise as Nate Silver has shown again and again, but often the reputation a pollster has does not align completely with the data. And there is also an insidious insinuation that the bias is deliberately partisan, rather than methodological. Unless that can be explicitly proven, I chalk it up to silly tin-foil-hat conspiracy theories.

But anyway, let's look at Ipsos Reid and whether they have any house effects. It is worthwhile to compare Ipsos Reid to other pollsters, rather than snapshot election results more than three years ago.

In the six polls Ipsos Reid has conducted in 2014, the Liberals have averaged 35.5%, the Conservatives 31%, the NDP 24.3%, and other parties 3.8% (we'll put aside the Bloc in this case).

In polls conducted by other companies with field dates within two weeks of the start and end of these six Ipsos Reid polls, the Liberals have averaged 35.7%, the Conservatives 29.4%, the NDP 22.3%, and Greens and others 7.6%.

Ipsos is sometimes charged with putting out higher numbers for the Conservatives, and here we see that indeed they have been 1.6 points higher for the Tories than other pollsters in 2014. But that is a rather small discrepancy when we consider the Ipsos sample is only six polls, in addition to the margin of error of all of these polls. And to focus on this number would be to miss the point - Ipsos is right in line with other pollsters for the Liberals, and is instead more bullish for the New Democrats than they are for the Conservatives. Yet Ipsos is rarely charged with being an NDP-friendly polling firm.

The biggest difference with Ipsos is that support for the Greens and others is roughly half of what other pollsters peg it to be. This is significant because what differentiates Ipsos most from other pollsters is that they do not give the Greens as an option in their questionnaire. Undoubtedly, this drags down what would be Green support, with consequences for the support of the major parties. This alone may explain more of the discrepancy between Ipsos and other pollsters than anything else (and we should note that Ipsos is, by far, not the pollster that most often finds itself out of the peloton).

Some might think the exclusion of the Greens from Ipsos's surveys is a problem, but consider that in the 2011 election the Greens and other parties totaled 4.8% support. Other pollsters would have us believe that this support has increased by more than half. That is certainly possible, but polls consistently over-estimate the support of the Green Party in virtually every jurisdiction. One of the pollsters that consistently does this the least is, as it turns out, Ipsos Reid.