Best Case Scenarios - April 2010

As you'll recall, last month I took a look at what was the potential best result for each of the parties in terms of seat wins. As I only had a couple hours of sleep last night, I'll copy-and-paste my explanation from that post:

What I've done is taken the best polling results for each party in each of the six regions, and used those polling results to come up with a projection. In other words, these projections are the best possible result each party could've gotten had an election taken place in the month of April.With 21.5% support nationally, the New Democrats would elect 50 MPs and set party records.

Nevertheless, they still would be the fourth party in the House of Commons, two seats behind the Bloc Québécois. Their strong performance is especially marked in British Columbia (31%), the Prairies (31%), Ontario (19% and 20 seats), Quebec (19% and 2 seats), and Atlantic Canada (33% and 7 seats).

The Conservatives would be hit the hardest by this NDP surge, with only 109 MPs. However, they still would have more than the 97 Liberal MPs. But joining with the Liberals would give an NDP-Liberal coalition 147 seats, enough to govern with a good level of stability.

Compared to March, this is an increase of seven seats for the New Democrats and 0.2 points for the national popular vote.With only 29.7% support, the Liberals manage to squeak out a weak plurality of 113 MPs to the Conservatives' 105, and will need to reach out to the other parties to form government.

The Liberals' strongest performances come in the Prairies (35%), Ontario (38% and 57 seats), and Atlantic Canada (41% and 21 seats). They are still not doing well enough in the West and Quebec to give them a solid cushion over the Conservatives.

The NDP still manage a strong showing of 35 seats, but with a combined 148 MPs the Liberals and NDP would still be short of a minority, while the Bloc makes historic gains.

This is a drop for the Liberals compared to March. Their best case scenario is down 8 seats and fully 3.4 percentage points. It was a rough month.With 38.4% of the vote, Stephen Harper is finally elected with a majority of 159 MPs, barely crossing the 155 threshold.

While the Liberals, with 78 MPs, and the Bloc, with 48 MPs, manage to re-elect most of their incumbents, the NDP is reduced to only 23 seats. The Conservatives dominate in the West (81 seats in all) and are strong in Ontario (40% and 57 seats), Quebec (20% and 9 seats), and Atlantic Canada (35% and 12 seats).

For the Tories, this is a big gain of 11 seats over March. They only needed a 0.9-point bump to do it.

So, what we have here is a demonstration that the New Democrats and the Conservatives are in an improved position over last month. A majority is within the grasp (only) of the Tories, though things have to go very well for them to get there. Historic results are also within reach of the NDP, but this seems to lessen the likelihood of a Conservative majority. While April has shown that the NDP is strong, it also shows that the Tories require a weak NDP to get to a majority. There is conflict there.

April Averages

Time to look at April's polling. Nine national polls were taken during this month (the same as last month), totaling about 14,390 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 33.0% (-0.3)
Liberals - 27.4% (-1.8)
New Democrats - 17.1% (+0.4)
Greens - 10.8% (+1.0)
Bloc Québécois - 9.5% (+0.4)

After a couple months of gains, the Conservatives take a small step backwards. This is compensated by an even larger Liberal loss. Over the last two months the Liberals have dropped 3.4 points. Compare that to the Conservatives, who in that time span are up 0.2 points. The New Democrats are up again, gaining almost an entire point in the past 60 days. The Greens are up a point this month.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 127 (+1)
Liberals - 95 (-7)
Bloc Québécois - 52 (+2)
New Democrats - 34 (+4)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

The Conservatives make a modest seat gain, thanks to increases in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are down big, once again, now down 14 in the last two months. The Bloc solidifies it's hold on Quebec while the NDP makes a big gain thanks to wins in every part of the country.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 polls - about 1,870 people)

Conservatives - 34.8% (-0.1)
New Democrats - 27.2% (+2.7)
Liberals - 22.2% (-2.2)
Greens - 13.9% (+0.1)

The Conservatives remain virtually unchanged in the province. The NDP is up big after a month of stagnation. The Liberals are down again, making that a loss of 4.1 points in the last two months. The Greens are steady, but that is coming off a gain of 1.1 points last month.

ALBERTA (9 polls - about 1,380 people)

Conservatives - 57.3% (+0.1)
Liberals - 15.9% (-2.4)
Greens - 12.1% (+0.7)
New Democrats - 11.7% (+1.9)

The Conservatives are steady, which in a small region like Alberta is relatively remarkable. The Liberals are really starting to lose the decent level of support they had built in the province, as they have lost more than five points in the last two months. The NDP seems to be taking advantage, as they have gained almost two points in the last month. They haven't re-taken third spot, however, which remains in the hands of the Greens.

PRAIRIES (9 polls - about 1,010 people)

Conservatives - 44.5% (-1.7)
Liberals - 23.1% (+1.5)
New Democrats - 21.3% (+1.1)
Greens - 10.0% (-0.2)

The Conservatives take another hit, and have lost 2.5 points in the last two months. The Liberals have shown another month of gain in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The NDP seems to have bounced back and have re-gained the losses they sustained in March. The Greens fall back a little.

The Conservatives take 67 in the West (unchanged since March), while the Liberals win 15 (down two) and the NDP wins 13 (up two).

ONTARIO (9 polls - about 4,630 people)

Liberals - 35.1% (-1.4)
Conservatives - 35.1% (-0.3)
New Democrats - 17.0% (+0.3)
Greens - 11.1% (+1.5)

The Liberals have lost three points in the last two months, and are now tied with the Tories. The Conservatives drop a little, but it only cancels out their gains of March. The NDP is up, and is now up 1.7 points in two months. The Greens make a tidy gain as well.

The Liberals win 46 seats (down three, down seven in the last two months), the Conservatives win 45 (up one), and the NDP wins 15 (up two).

QUEBEC (10 polls - about 4,080 people)

Bloc Québécois - 38.6% (+1.4)
Liberals - 22.3% (-2.2)
Conservatives - 16.5% (-0.6)
New Democrats - 12.1% (+0.4)
Greens - 8.9% (+0.4)

The Bloc makes a good gain and has a solid lead in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped almost five points in the last two months. The Conservatives are also down after a month of gains. The NDP is up 1.1 points over the last two months. The Greens make another month of gains.

The Bloc takes 52 seats (up two), the Liberals take 15 (down one), the Conservatives take 6 (down one) and the NDP win 2 (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (9 polls - about 1,000 people)

Liberals - 35.9% (+0.4)
Conservatives - 32.3% (+2.5)
New Democrats - 22.5% (-2.0)
Greens - 8.3% (+0.4)

The Liberals re-gain their footing, but it doesn't make up for their two point loss in March. The Conservatives take a step forward after last month's step backwards. After looking like the ship was turning for the NDP in Atlantic Canada, they head in the wrong direction.

The Liberals win 19 seats (down one), the Conservatives win 9 (up one), and the NDP wins 4 (unchanged).The big winners in April were clearly the New Democrats. They saw improvements in five of the six regions of the country, making significant gains in the Prairies, Alberta, and especially British Columbia. Their loss in Atlantic Canada, however, is a problem.

Next would be the Bloc, who made a solid gain but, more importantly, increased their lead to 16.3 points over the Liberals and 22.1 points over the Conservatives.

Then it would be the Greens, who made gains in five of the six regions. The problem is that the only place they really need to make gains is in British Columbia, and they were only up 0.1 points there.

Both the Conservatives and Liberals had a bad month. Both saw losses in four of the six regions of the country. The Conservatives did make a decent gain in Atlantic Canada, however, and their losses in Ontario and British Columbia were negligible.

That can't be said for the Liberals, who saw significant drops in support in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia.