January 2012 Federal Poll Averages

Five national and two Quebec-only polls were released in January, surveying a total of 8,417 Canadians. Thanks to increases in Ontario and Quebec, both the Conservatives and Liberals made gains on their December 2011 averages.

The Conservatives averaged 35.1% support in January, up 0.7 points from December. The New Democrats averaged 27.8%, down one point, while the Liberals polled at 24.4%, up 1.7 points since the previous month.

The Greens were at 5.7% while the Bloc Québécois was at 5.5% nationally. Both had dropped 0.4 points.

This represents another month of decline for the New Democrats, who have fallen steadily since hitting 32% in September 2011. The Conservatives appear to have halted a slide of their own since September, while the Liberals have been around 23% or 24% for the last four months.

The Conservatives picked up three points in Ontario in January, averaging 38.8% support. The Liberals gained 1.6 points and stood at 31.7%, while the New Democrats were down 1.8 points to 24.2%. The Greens averaged 5.4%.

In Quebec, the New Democrats have continued to drop, this time by 2.9 points to only 30%. The party had averaged 45% in Quebec as recently as October 2011. The Bloc Québécois lost 0.7 points to reach 23.7% in January, while the Liberals were up 2.8 points to 20.3% in the province. This is the third consecutive month of Liberal increase in Quebec, and they are now at their highest point since March 2011. The Conservatives gained 0.2 points in Quebec and averaged 19.1% in January. Their support has been virtually constant since February 2011.

The Conservatives slipped 0.5 points in British Columbia to 35.5%, while the New Democrats dropped 1.5 points to 33.5%. The Liberals were up 3.5 points to 20.8% and the Greens were down 1.4 points to 9.3%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives picked up 2.4 points since December and averaged 60.9% support. The Liberals moved ahead of the New Democrats for the first time since before the May 2011 election by gaining 3.1 points to hit 15.3%. The NDP fell 4.4 points to 15.1%.

The New Democrats gained 4.9 points in Atlantic Canada, however, and averaged 34.7% in January. This is the first time since at least January 2009 that the NDP has held an outright lead in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals increased 1.5 points to 30.5% while the Conservatives slipped 4.9 points to 29.1%, their lowest result since August 2010.

And in the Prairies, the Conservatives were up 1.5 points to 47.2%, followed by the New Democrats at 31.4% (-1.1) and the Liberals at 15.9% (-0.2).

With these levels of support, and using the current 308-seat electoral map, the Conservatives would have won 137 seats in a January election, down three seats from their December 2011 projection. The New Democrats would have won 91 seats, down nine since December, while the Liberals would have won 69, a gain of eight.

Though this would point, at first, to a Conservative minority government, the NDP and Liberals could combine for a 160-seat majority.

The Conservatives would have won 17 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 53 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, 10 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats would have won 13 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 20 in Ontario, 42 in Quebec, eight in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals would have won five seats in British Columbia, three in the Prairies, 33 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Bloc Québécois would have won 10 seats in Quebec (up four since December) and the Greens would have won one in British Columbia.

Though this may seem like bad news for the NDP, the problem for them is Quebec and Quebec alone. The party is polling equal to or higher than their 2011 election results in British Columbia (+1 percentage points), the Prairies (+2), and Atlantic Canada (+6) and they have only slipped slightly in Alberta (-2) and Ontario (-2).

In Quebec, however, the party is down 13 points. What this means is that the New Democrats are still doing quite well in English Canada. They have consolidated the support they won in the last election, but in Quebec the party is in big trouble. Once the party slips below 30% in the province, they will start to lose seats in droves. With those seats will go their hopes for forming the next government.

NDP widens lead in BC

Two polls taken at the end of January by Forum Research and Angus-Reid indicate that the B.C. New Democrats have pulled further ahead of the governing Liberals. And with support for the B.C. Conservatives continuing to ride high, Christy Clark is unequivocally on track to lose the next election.

The poll by Angus-Reid gives the NDP the widest lead at 14 points, with Adrian Dix's party at 42% to 28% for the B.C. Liberals. The Conservatives stand at 19%, while the Greens trail with 10%.

Angus-Reid was last in the field October 31-November 1, and since then the NDP has gained two points. The Liberals are down three while the Conservatives are up one.

The New Democrats lead in every part of the province, with 42% in Vancouver, 51% on Vancouver Island, 37% in the Interior, and 43% in the North. They have made substantial gains on Vancouver Island and in northern British Columbia since Angus-Reid last reported.

The Liberals have dropped substantially in the north, and are stuck at between 27% and 30% throughout the province. The B.C. Conservatives are doing well everywhere but on Vancouver Island, and are even seven points behind the Liberals in Vancouver. They have outpaced the Greens for third spot throughout British Columbia.

They are the real problem for Christy Clark. Roughly one-quarter of B.C. Liberal voters from 2009 have gone to the B.C. Conservatives. Give those votes back to the Liberals and the race is neck-and-neck. Adrian Dix's lead has been formed thanks to with the weakness of the Liberals and the strength of the Conservatives.

His personal numbers aren't as good as those for his party: 26% think he is the best person to be premier. Clark is not far behind with 22%. Dix's approval ratings are positive, however, with 45% approval to 36% disapproval. Clark (40% to 49%) and Cummins (23% to 39%) have negative approval ratings.

The poll by Forum Research is somewhat older, but finds some similar results. The B.C. New Democrats lead with 39% to 26% for the B.C. Liberals, while the B.C. Conservatives are solidly in third with 22%.

Since Forum was last in the field on December 15, the NDP has gained five, the Liberals have gained three, and the Conservatives have dropped one.

Like Angus-Reid, Forum has the NDP up in each part of the province: 39% in Vancouver, 41% on Vancouver Island, and 37% in the Interior and the North.  They've made important gains in Vancouver and in the Interior-North.

Liberal support is also at a similar level as Angus-Reid, but one difference is in the Interior-North region. There, Forum sees the B.C. Conservatives at 25% to 17% for the Liberals. Dropping into third in this part of the province would be a disaster for Christy Clark.

Also like Angus-Reid, Forum has positive approval ratings for Adrian Dix (though, at 35% to 34%, narrowly so) while Christy Clark (34% approval to 46% disapproval) and John Cummins (21% to 35%) have negative numbers.

The projected seat results for these two polls are relatively similar, giving us a good idea of where things stand right now.

With the B.C. Conservatives at 22% and beating out the Liberals in part of the province, Forum's numbers would result in 60 seats for the B.C. New Democrats, 18 for the B.C. Liberals, and five for the B.C. Conservatives. The potential for more seats for Cummins is large, particularly if he can line up some compelling candidates and pull ahead of the Liberals in the Interior or the North, or both.

While Angus-Reid has a wider lead, its weaker results for the Conservatives gives 61 seats to the NDP, 22 to the Liberals, and only two to the Conservatives.

But in both scenarios we see a massive two-thirds NDP majority for Adrian Dix, thanks in large part to John Cummins. In fact, if we look at the polling trends over the last two years we see that the B.C. Liberals have returned to the levels of support they had in their last months under Gordon Campbell. Christy Clark's honeymoon, in which her party pulled ahead, is clearly over. Since at least January 2010, the B.C. New Democrats have out-polled the B.C. Liberals for most of the time, suggesting that it will not be a simple task for Christy Clark to right the ship.