Tuesday, April 20, 2010

BC NDP Opens 18-Point Lead

Earlier this week, Angus-Reid released a new provincial poll for British Columbia. And it is bad news for Gordon Campbell of the BC Liberals.The BC NDP under Carole James pick up four points from Angus-Reid's March poll and now stand at a whopping 47% support. The BC Liberals are down six to 29%. The gap is now 18 points, whereas it was only eight points a month ago.

The BC Greens have gained one point (14%) while the BC Conservatives are down one (5%).

The BC NDP leads in all demographics except one: those who earn $100k or more. The BC Liberals lead that category.

The NDP made big gains in Vancouver Island, the Interior, and the North. They lead in all of those regions with 56%, 42%, and 48% respectively. The regional samples are smaller, however, so the extent of these gains (20 points in the North) may be exaggerated. The party leads in and around Vancouver, with 46%.

The BC Liberals are down everywhere, to 29% in Vancouver, 22% on the Island, 34% in the Interior, and 37% in the North. They've lost the lead in that last region.

The Greens are doing best in Vancouver where they have 15%. The BC Conservatives are doing best in the Interior, where they have 7% support.

The main issue seems to be the implementation of the harmonized sales tax (HST). Fully 82% disagree with its implementation. The BC Liberals are seen as arrogant (64%), dishonest (52%), and secretive (48%), while the BC NDP is seen as inefficient (40%), weak (37%), but also mindful of the province's needs (32%).

In an odd question, Angus-Reid has asked how voters would vote if there were a new party. The vagueness of this questions allows the phantom party to be whatever the person wants, so the significance of these questions is pretty low.

Nevertheless, if a new one existed, 34% would support a centre-left party, while 28% would still vote NDP and 23% would still vote Liberal. It appears that many British Columbians are reluctant NDP supporters.

If a new centre-right party existed, the NDP would garner 37% while the new party would take 30%. The Liberals would have 15% in this scenario, indicating that most British Columbians on the right want an alternative to the Liberals. But, it also indicates that British Columbians aren't enamored with centre-right policies as a whole.