Alberta election aftermath

That was a surprising result. But in the context of how uncomfortable I felt when posting my final projection late on Sunday, I found myself unsurprised last night that something so astonishing occurred. As my wide ranges suggested, this sort of outcome was plausible. But even those ranges did not manage to contain the wild swing that appears to have taken place in the last 48 hours of the campaign.

Wildrose's support simply cratered, and to an extent that no model or method could have anticipated. The Tories picked up the majority of that lost support, but also took some support from the New Democrats and Liberals.

For an in-depth look at what happened with the polls, check out my article for The Globe and Mail here. For a perspective on what this means for Alberta going forward, you can read my article for The Huffington Post Canada here.

Did the polls call this election wrongly? That depends. If there was the kind of swing I talk about in my Globe article, it is difficult to fault the pollsters for failing to identify a radical swing in the last two days of the campaign considering they all (except Forum) did their final numbers sometime in the last week. If they had all opted to poll on the Sunday, would they have all identified that last minute swing? The odds that they could have all been so wrong so spectacularly are quite remote.

As my model is limited by the data I have available to put into it, it can't really be faulted for being so far off. Compared to what every poll said and what some other seat projectors forecast, my projection was the only one that did not forecast a Wildrose majority and voices (like mine) that put into question the likelihood of the expected Wildrose landslide were few.

But even my uncertainty model could not have predicted such a Wildrose collapse. At the very least, however, the results demonstrated that maintaining (and perhaps, going forward, even emphasizing) this sort of uncertainty modelling was the right thing to do.

In the end, the New Democrats did almost exactly as expected, the four seats they won having been projected to go their way. The Liberals won two of the three seats they were projected as being in the running for in Edmonton, but completely over-achieved in Calgary. It wasn't that their vote spiked in the city (they did exactly as well as expected), it was simply that their vote was super-efficient.

The Tories won all of the swing seats they needed to, and some that weren't even seen as being potential wins for the PCs. But their result of 61 seats was just inside the upper extreme of the projected ranges, a remarkable result considering that the Liberals also over-achieved.

Wildrose, however, simply did not deliver. That they could have won as few as 22 seats might have seemed ridiculous going in to last night's vote. Instead, they won 17! Not only did they under-achieve their polling by a significant degree, they under-achieved their worst case scenario.

Once again, and painfully so, the seat projection model would have churned out good results with the correct vote share being plugged into it. With the real regional results, the seat projection would have given the Progressive Conservatives 65 seats (24 in Edmonton, 19 in Calgary, 22 in the rest of Alberta), Wildrose 18 seats (1/8/9), and the New Democrats four seats (all in Edmonton, of course). While this is too late to do any good, it shows that seat projection models can work, even in strange elections like this one (i.e., Wildrose going from 7% to 34% in one cycle).

Interestingly, it still would have delivered zero seats for the Liberals. For a party that sank from over 26% to under 10%, it is remarkable that some of their incumbents were still re-elected with 40% of the vote or more. The level of attachment that voters (in Calgary, particularly) had to their Liberal MLAs was surprisingly strong, and something that would have been difficult to model.

Something that was included in the model - the assumption that the Progressive Conservatives, as the government, would be under-estimated in polls and that Wildrose, as the third party in the legislature, would be over-estimated - did turn out to be prescient. But it would have required a ludicrous amount of adjustment to have come up with this sort of result.

The Alberta electorate did a number on pollsters and myself, so kudos to them for demonstrating why democracy can be an unpredictable but important thing.

A statistical breakdown of how the projection model performed is available here.

Final Alberta Projection: Wildrose victory

With mere hours to go before the polls open in Alberta, ThreeHundredEight.com is unable to project with any great degree of certainty what the outcome will be. While the polls were all lining up over the final days, the Sunday poll by Forum Research has indicated that the race will go down to the wire. But though it is possible that either Danielle Smith or Alison Redford will come out on top tonight, the seat projection model suggests that Wildrose will win, but miss out on a majority of seats by a whisker.

Assuming no MLAs cross the floor and that the largest party in the legislature forms the government, the model also suggests that Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives will lead the Official Opposition and that Brian Mason's NDP will sit as the third party in the legislature with a large amount of influence.

However, there are a multitude of close races and a great deal of uncertainty in Monday night's outcome.

Wildrose is projected to take 38.4% of the votes, giving them 43 seats. That is only one short of a majority of the 87 ridings contested, a historic result for a party that won zero seats in the last election. The Progressive Conservatives are projected to take 35.8% of the vote and to win 39 seats, their worst result since 1967.

The New Democrats are projected to finish third with 11.4% support and to win five seats, their best result since 1989. The Liberals, meanwhile, are on track to win only 11.1% of ballots cast and are projected to be shut out of the legislature entirely for the first time in 30 years.

The Alberta Party is projected to win 2.2% of the vote, while the Evergreen Party (the re-incarnation of the de-registered Green Party of Alberta) is projected to win 0.6%. Neither party is running a full slate. Independents and other parties are expected to garner 0.4% support.

Closing gap in final week

Edmonton vote projections

While the election will be decided in Calgary and outside of the two main cities, where the Tories and Wildrose are fighting for every vote, recent shifts in the voting intentions of people in Edmonton could also play an enormous role in deciding the make-up of the province's next legislature.

After regaining support in the city in Week 3 of the campaign, the Tories dropped like a stone in Edmonton over the last few days before yesterday's uptick. They are  projected to win 36.3% of the vote and 19 seats. Wildrose has been relatively steady and is expected to win 27.3% of the vote and five of the seats, but the New Democrats have been making gains in the city. They are now projected to win 18.2% and five seats, putting them in play in one-quarter of Greater Edmonton's ridings. The Liberals, however, have fallen back.

Calgary vote projections

While Danielle Smith has been treading water in the capital, things are going badly in Calgary where Wildrose has been falling precipitously over the last 10 days. Though they still lead with 40.9% and 19 seats, that is a far cry from the almost majority support they enjoyed in the city for a brief period and the likelihood of a clean sweep that existed at the time. The Tories have benefited the most, closing to 36.6% and eight seats (saving Redford's skin in the process). The Liberals are just over the double-digit bar, a disaster for a party that had over 30% support in Cowtown in 2008.

Rural Alberta vote projections

In the rest of the province, the Tories have slowly increased their level of support over the last 10 days at the expense of Wildrose. Nevertheless, Wildrose leads with 44.5% and 19 seats to the PCs' 34.4% and 12 seats. Neither the New Democrats nor the Liberals are much of a factor outside the two main cities, and they have not been for the duration of the campaign.

The difference between a Wildrose minority and a majority will hinge upon whether Danielle Smith can reverse the negative momentum in Calgary and rural Alberta. For the Tories, they will need to capitalize on that negative momentum to squeak out a victory of some kind, which is still possible.

Where they stand and what is at stake

Each party has a lot riding on the results of Alberta's election. Can the Tories pull victory out of the jaws of defeat? Will Wildrose win a majority or a minority, or not at all? What influence will the NDP have in the next legislature? And what of the Liberals?

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Despite a few hiccups over the last days that may have cost the party an outright victory, Wildrose ran a strong campaign and may have simply been the right party, with the right leader, at the right time (others have highlighted Raj Sherman as the right leader for the Liberals but at the wrong time). As recently as Mar. 13 they were projected to win only 17 seats, itself a big leap for the young party.

Wildrose has the best shot at forming a majority government, with every poll giving them a lead over the PCs. They are projected to take between 36.4% and 40.4% of the vote. That range has loosened somewhat, which should come as no surprise as the penultimate polls of the campaign all had the party at the exact same level of support. Forum then mixed things up considerably.

Because of that potentially tightening race and some regional variations, Wildrose could win as few as 22 seats. This would put them in the role of the Official Opposition and would still represent a huge gain for the party, but compared to expectations it would be a disappointing result. Wildrose could also win as many as 62 seats, giving them the kind of landslide that is possible if a "kick the bums out" mentality takes over the electorate and boosts anti-PC turnout.

Wildrose will have the most success outside of Calgary and Edmonton, as they are projected to win between 40.5% and 48.5% of the vote and between 10 and 25 seats. They should also do quite well in Calgary with between 38.4% and 43.4% support and between nine and 22 seats, though the projection expects them to be at the higher end of that scale.

Edmonton should prove a more difficult nut to crack for Danielle Smith. Though she has been running neck-and-neck in a few polls, for the most part her party is trailing the Tories. They are projected to win between 22.3% and 32.3% of the vote in the provincial capital, giving them between three and 15 seats. A breakthrough of more than half-a-dozen seats would likely mean that Wildrose is going to win a landslide. They are projected, however, to end up at the lower end of the scale. Nevertheless, they should win enough seats in the provincial capital to give the city some representation in a government.

And that is what they are most likely to win. The odds favour a Wildrose government of some kind, but at such close margins it is a virtual coin flip. If the party greatly under-performs its polls, then Wildrose could end up as the Official Opposition. If they over-achieve, particularly Forum's results, they will win handily.

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In the week before the campaign was officially called, Alison Redford was in a strong position. Though she was only a few points ahead of Wildrose in the polls, it was expected that she would be able to handle the upstart party on the hustings. But on Mar. 29, she gave up the lead and since then has never regained it. Her only hope is that PC voters will turn out in great numbers and that supporters of the Liberals and NDP will opt for the devil they know.

There is less certainty about where the Tories will end up. Some polls have them in the low-30s, others in the mid-30s. This puts their likely range at between 33.3% and 38.3%. This makes it quite likely, but by no means certain, that they will finish behind Wildrose in the popular vote. But if it ends up being close, it can be expected that the PCs will have a more efficient vote.

This means that the Tories could win between 20 and 62 seats, like Wildrose a very wide range. If they win as few as 20, it would be an unmitigated disaster. If they win 62, it would be a second miracle result for the PCs. While those extremes are unlikely, the ingredients for a minority or even a majority do exist - but the Progressive Conservatives would need a lot to swing their way for that to happen.

Edmonton and Calgary will be key for the party. In Edmonton, they stand to win between 32.3% and 40.3% of the vote, giving them between nine and 23 seats. They are projected to be near the higher end of that range, though, meaning they need to win those extra swing seats to challenge Wildrose for government.

In Calgary, the Tories need to exploit the recent weakness in Wildrose's numbers. They are currently expected to suffer quite significantly, with between 31.1% and 42.1% of the vote and between five and 18 seats. Uncertainty is quite high in the city, but if the PCs can manage to have the votes swing their way in Calgary then they will have a real shot. If things go as projected, however, they have no chance as this is the only region of the province where they are at the lower end of their projected range.

In the rest of Alberta, the Tories stand at between 30.9% and 37.9% of the vote, enough to give them between six and 21 seats.

If they hold on to Edmonton and have luck in rural Alberta and especially in Calgary, then Alison Redford can remain as premier. But that is a best case scenario - the most likely result is that Redford will become the Leader of the Opposition.

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Prior to the campaign's start and the gains by Wildrose, Brian Mason did have a very good shot at taking that job. The New Democrats were looking good after Alison Redford became PC leader and the NDP moved into a three-way tie for second place. But now that the fight is between conservative blue and green, the NDP has its sights set on being the standard bearer of the non-conservative opposition.

Still, they are leaps and bounds behind even the second place Tories. With between 9.9% and 12.9% of the vote, they are almost certain to register one of their best results since 1993. They could win as many as eight seats, which would be a tremendous gain for the party, or as few as three seats, which still represents an increase.

Edmonton is their bread and butter, and they are projected to win between 13.7% and 22.7% of the vote and between three and seven seats. In all likelihood, any MLAs the NDP elects will come from this city. They have seen an increase in support of late, and whether they end up at the top or bottom of the range will depend on whether that vote turns out or not.

Elsewhere, the party is not likely to win any seats. Because of some gains in Calgary, they do have an outside shot at one seat, but it is a very outside shot. Rural Alberta is not expected to have any dots of NDP orange, though the party is doing relatively well with between 8.1% and 12.1% of the vote.

Because the Tories are too far ahead and the Liberals are falling, it is difficult to imagine the New Democrats finishing anywhere but third in the legislature. What is important for the NDP, however, is whether that legislature will be run by a minority or majority government.

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For the Liberals, meanwhile, the question will be whether the party will survive Monday night's result. The Liberals have had a rough time of it ever since the last election, but the campaign plunged their vote even further down when it became clear that the only realistic options for premier were Danielle Smith and Alison Redford. This has, according to the polls, sent a large number of Liberal voters Redford's way.

As a result, the Liberals are projected to place fourth in the vote with between 9.1% and 13.1%. They could win as many as three seats, but being shut out of the legislature is considered more likely. If any of their MLAs manage to be re-elected, it is probably going to happen in Edmonton, where the party has between 11% and 18% support.

In Calgary and rural Alberta, however, no Liberal is expected to win. Liberal support in Calgary sits at between 9.1% and 14.1% support and between 4.8% and 10.8% in the rest of Alberta. While surprises are always possible, the Liberals are not in a position to win any seats here.

And that means the Liberals are at risk of extinction, at least from the legislature. That is considered the most likely result, though sitting as the fourth party or even the third party is still possible. As Raj Sherman is likely to be one of those three potential Liberal victors, he may not exit the political scene in Alberta so quickly.

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The Alberta Party is not expected to be a major factor in tonight's vote, nor in any individual ridings. Though it is possible they could manage the unexpected, the polls do not point to any likelihood that the Alberta Party will hold any seats in the legislature. They were hamstrung by not being in the debates, and as the election has become about a choice between the PCs and Wildrose, the niche that the Alberta Party could have carved out for itself as a centrist alternative has been pinched out.

They have the highest potential in Edmonton, but the best shot for an Alberta Party victory is likely in West Yellowhead, simply because that is where their leader, Glenn Taylor, is a candidate.

An uncertain projection for an uncertain time

At this stage, it is usually possible to make a confident forecast. Until yesterday, everything pointed to a Wildrose majority government, but there were still so many intangibles that anything from a Wildrose landslide to a majority PC government was plausible. Now that a poll on the final day of the campaign showed a drastically narrowing gap, I have never felt less confident in a projection. The seat ranges, wide as they are, are a clear indication of why:

The last polls of the campaign had been relatively in agreement - certainly province-wide and to a large degree at the regional level. But the problem was that Wildrose and the Tories were running relatively close in a few areas, and with a few points swinging here or there the implications could include dozens of seats. If the gap is as narrow as two points, and was closing by a great degree in the final hours, it is very difficult to know where the parties will end up.

And this is not about hedging - there was a point in the campaign when the Wildrose and PC ranges did not overlap at all. Wildrose was poised to win a majority and only a majority, while the Tories had no hope of victory. And before Wildrose's surge, Redford was certain of winning another election for her party. The volatility and margin for error has simply increased to almost incomprehensible levels.

This is certainly not the kind of projection I want to make on Election Day. If I manage to get 86 out of 87 ridings correct, I could still potentially make the wrong call on the Wildrose minority. If I manage to get 84 out of 87 ridings correct, which would still be a stellar 97% accuracy rating, I could choose the wrong winner entirely! And I never like being in the position of saying a party will win no seats. But, I'm tied to what the model spits out.

This election campaign is also exceptional in several ways that make it very difficult to forecast. The biggest problem is posed by Wildrose, which took less than 7% in 2008 and did not run a full slate in that election. From there, they have gone to a lead in the polls. Can this sort of bandwagon be accurately projected?

The 2011 federal election in Quebec demonstrated that it can be. The seat projection model is capable of translating the NDP increase from 12.2% in 2008 to 42.9% in 2011 with a surprising degree of accuracy: it results in a total of 60 seats for the NDP (they actually won 59). But in 2008, the NDP managed to run a full slate of candidates in Quebec. Wildrose did not run a full slate last time, particularly in Edmonton. Where are their pockets of support likely to be in that city? As the capital and its surrounding region has roughly 1/3 of Alberta's seats, it is a large black hole for Wildrose.

The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, are seeing a wholesale change in the make-up of their supporters. Their voters have flocked to Wildrose and have been, in part, replaced by Liberals. That is a big demographic shift.

Final riding projections

Then there's the problem of the Liberals themselves, who are going from the main alternative to virtual fringe party status. Will their incumbents buck the regional trends? Could someone like David Swann keep enough of his votes in his Calgary riding to survive, while other Liberal candidates in the city do very poorly? Is there enough connection to voters' Liberal MLAs to ensure their survival? And what role will the Alberta Party play?

New boundaries could also mix things up, but that does not necessarily pose a problem for the projection model. Manitoba's boundaries were changed for the 2011 election, but nevertheless the model called 56 of the province's 57 ridings correctly.

What is different this time around is that I have added an adjustment to the polls to make up for the difference in voting intentions and voting behaviour, something that has become all the more apparent in recent years. This adjustment, which is based on how polls have been off of the result in other provincial and federal elections, assumes that the first and second parties in the legislature (in this case, the Liberals and the Tories) will be under-estimated in the polls while third, fourth, and fifth parties (in this case, Wildrose, the NDP, and the Alberta Party) will be over-estimated. Parties not in the legislature (in this case, Evergreen) are assumed to be greatly over-estimated. Had this adjustment been in place in 2011, ThreeHundredEight likely would have called the Conservative majority. It needs to be pointed out, however, that the adjustment is not based solely on that election's discrepancy.

What if that adjustment was removed, and the polls were assumed to be completely on the mark for this election? The result is a greater seat haul for Wildrose, all at the expense of the Tories, while the New Democrats still pick-up five seats. This result, however, is already encompassed by the projection's seat ranges. But it does show that Wildrose is well placed to win a majority. If Forum's poll is a complete outlier, then Wildrose will absolutely win 50 seats or more. If the momentum they measured is real and continues through to today, then the Progressive Conservatives could win that many seats.

An historic election

Alberta's election was never expected to be a very interesting one. While 2011 was jam-packed, 2012 appeared to be a very thin year for elections: Quebec maybe, and Alberta (yawn). Instead, observers from outside the province were treated to a political drama, while Albertans were offered a real choice for the first time in decades. And since the election will, one way or the other, result in the first female premier elected to govern a major province, Monday night stands to be historic.

But voters will be heading to the polling booths today without any strong idea of who will end up winning. While Wildrose is the favourite, the Tories could still manage to pull it off. And if the seat result is close, there is no telling what will happen in the legislature. On the other hand, a Wildrose landslide is still very much in the cards. Anything can happen. It is fitting that this surprising election campaign's voting day will hold more than a few surprises of its own.

Forum shows closing gap in last hours

Note: An analysis of ThreeHundredEight's final projection will be posted Monday morning. 

Three final polls saw the light of day on this, the last day of the Alberta campaign. Forum's was reported in The Globe and Mail this morning, while Angus-Reid released theirs less than an hour ago. It was taken on Apr. 20-21, however, whereas the very last poll of the campaign, again by Forum, was conducted today. It shows a very close race.

Forum puts Wildrose at 38% support to 36% for the Progressive Conservatives, 12% for the NDP, 10% for the Liberals, 3% for the Alberta Party, and 1% for other parties.

This is quite a change from their polling conducted yesterday. Forum has Wildrose down three points while the Tories are up four. The gap has narrowed to two points from nine, according to these numbers.

Forum polled 1,949 Albertans via their IVR method, giving the survey a sampling margin of error of +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The big sea change that Forum has is a gain by the Tories in Edmonton. In their polling completed yesterday, the PCs were at 31% to 30% for Wildrose. The numbers are now 37% to 25% with the Tories well ahead. The gap is also smaller in Calgary (from 12 points to six) and in the rest of Alberta (from 16 points to nine), but it is in Edmonton where things have shifted the most.

Is Forum capturing last minute second thoughts? They are the only firm to have done any polling today. Weekend polling always comes with some risk and as Forum now stands alone going into voting day (all other polls put Wildrose at 41% with the Tories in the mid-to-low 30s), and they will either sink or swim. If they have it right, then we are in for a long night tomorrow.

Wildrose poised for slim majority

With only days remaining before Monday's vote, the final polls of the campaign are being released. Léger Marketing, ThinkHQ, Campaign Research, and Abacus Data have all put out their final numbers and they all agree: while Wildrose's lead has been diminished over the latter half of the campaign, they are still in the lead.

Wildrose is projected to take 39.6% of the vote, down only 0.1 point since the Apr. 17 projection. The Progressive Conservatives have slipped 0.5 points to 34.8%, putting the gap between the two parties at just under five points.

The four most recent polls put the gap at between six and ten points, but as explained in that Apr. 17 analysis the model makes adjustments for expected discrepancies between voting intentions and voting behaviour (i.e., turnout).

The Liberals are up 0.8 points to 11.5%, putting them ahead of the New Democrats, who are unchanged at 11%. The Alberta Party is up 0.3 points since Apr. 17 to 2.1%.

At these levels of support, Wildrose is projected to win 45 seats. That puts them just over the bar for a majority. The Tories have picked up one seat since Apr. 17 and are projected to win 37.

The New Democrats are unchanged at four seats, while the Liberals are back to being on track to win a single seat.

As the polls are lining up (none of the newest ones feature anything that could be considered an "outlier" result), the ranges have been reduced. Wildrose's likely vote haul now no longer overlaps with the PCs: they are projected to win between 38.1% and 41.1% compared to between 32.3% and 37.3% for the Tories. In other words, if an election were held today the Wildrose would certainly finish ahead of the PCs in the popular vote.

The Liberals (10% to 13%) and the NDP (9% to 13%) are bunched up closely together, making it difficult to determine who is most likely to finish in third. At this stage, however, the Liberals have the advantage.

At least in the vote. In terms of seats, the New Democrats range between two and eight while the Liberals remain mired at between zero and three seats. This means it is possible that the Liberals could sit third in the legislature, but the odds do not favour this result.

The seat ranges for Wildrose and the Tories overlap dramatically, due in large part to the huge number of ridings that are being decided by only a few percentage points. And with the polls still unsure as to where the Tories stand in Calgary and Wildrose in Edmonton (though the order seems rather clear, the closeness of the race is still difficult to determine) anything from a Wildrose majority to a PC majority, and everything in between, is possible with the polls where they are. However, the odds favour a Wildrose majority government, and are heavily stacked against one headed by Alison Redford.

Edmonton voting intentions

The race is becoming increasingly four-sided in Edmonton, as both the Liberals and New Democrats have made gains in the capital. Wildrose support has been stagnant in the city for some time, while the NDP has hit a bit of a plateau as well. But the Liberals have made a small comeback, primarily at the expense of the Tories.

Since Apr. 17, the PCs have dropped 3.6 points and one seat in Edmonton. They are projected to win 35.4% of the vote and 19 seats. Wildrose is steady at 26.6%, but the New Democrats are up 0.9 points to 17.2%. The Liberals made the biggest leap, jumping 2.6 points to 16.8%, putting one seat back into their column. The Alberta Party stands to get its best result in Edmonton with 2.9%, a gain of 0.3 points.

But the polls are not exactly showing a consensus in the city. While the PC (31.4% to 39.4%) and Liberal (13.8% to 19.8%) ranges are relatively narrow, Wildrose could take as much as 32.1% of the vote or as little as 21.1%. The NDP could take between 12.2% and 22.2%. Though something in between is most likely, this degree of uncertainty means the PCs could win between nine and 26 seats in Edmonton, while Wildrose could take between one and 15 and the NDP between two and seven.

Calgary is also unsettled. Wildrose has dropped 2.2 points but still leads with 42.3% support. The Tories trail with 35.7% (-0.9) while the Liberals sit at 11.8% (+0.8). The New Democrats are up 1.2 points to 7.3% and the Alberta Party is up 0.2 points to 2%. The range for the Tories is incredibly wide, however: they could take between 27.7% and 43.7% of the vote, giving them between one and 18 seats. They are projected to win eight to Wildrose's 19.

In the rest of the province, Wildrose is up 0.5 points to 47.8% but down two seats to 21, as the Tories have picked up 2.1 points to hit 33%. The New Democrats are down 0.7 points to 9.7% and the Liberals are down 0.8 points to 6.6%.

EDIT: An earlier graphic mixed up the results of Abacus and Campaign Research. My apologies.

Provincially, the polls are all in general agreement. Wildrose scored 41% in the last three polls taken Apr. 17-19, while they were at 42% in Léger's poll taken Apr. 13-16.

Tory support is somewhat more uncertain, standing between 31% and 36%, though support for the Liberals (9% to 12%) and the NDP (10% to 13%) varies by no more than three, and in polls taken since Apr. 17 their results differ by no more than two points.

Regional results, though, are less certain. In Edmonton, the gap between the Tories and Wildrose is somewhere between two and seven points, while it ranges between three and 15 points in Calgary. Outside of the two cities, it is somewhere between 13 and 24 points. One can now see why my own projection ranges are so wide.

They all, however, put the Progressive Conservatives ahead in Edmonton and Wildrose ahead in Calgary and the rest of the province. They all give the Liberals (13%-19%) and the NDP (16%-22%) their best results in Edmonton, and show the two parties to be completely out of the race in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. No poll gives the two parties a combined score higher than 25% in Calgary or 17% outside the two cities (compared to a combined high of 38% in Edmonton in one survey).

They all also tend to show that Wildrose's momentum has stalled or has turned negative, while the Tories' slide has stopped or has even been reversed. If Angus-Reid or (more likely) Forum decide to do some polling today or tomorrow, we might get a more definitive idea of whether the gap is going to be tightening between now and Monday.

Note: A final projection will be posted either late on Sunday or early Monday. 

Pre-debate, Wildrose still well ahead

In the run-up to Thursday's leaders' debate, Wildrose widened its lead over the Progressive Conservatives, who in turn wiped the Liberals off the electoral map.

For a comparison of how things have shifted over the last two weeks, take a look at my article for The Globe and Mail here.

The projection was last updated in the early hours of Apr. 13, and since the previous projection of Apr. 11 the Wildrose have picked up one point to lead with 41.9%. This is the high watermark of the campaign for Danielle Smith.

The Tories, meanwhile, have dropped 0.2 points to 33.2%, almost nine points behind Wildrose.

The Liberals are down 0.1 point to 11% support, while the New Democrats are unchanged at 10.8%. For the Liberals, this is their lowest level of support in the campaign.

The net result is that Wildrose is unchanged at a projected haul of 56 seats, while the Progressive Conservatives are up one seat to 27. This has come at the expense of the Liberals, who are now projected to win zero seats. The New Democrats have held steady at four seats.

The likely range of Wildrose support has increased to between 36.6% and 47.1%, while the Tories are holding generally steady at between 30.5% and 35.9%. The two parties had overlapped since the Apr. 10 projection, but no more.

The Liberals sit between 9.6% and 12.5%, narrowly ahead of the New Democrats, who are projected to take between 9.1% and 12.4% of the vote.

This puts the likely range for the Liberals at between zero and three seats, while the New Democrats stand to win between two and eight sits. There is a very strong likelihood that the NDP will emerge as the third party in the legislature ahead of the Liberals, who may not sit at all.

Wildrose should win between 30 and 74 seats, a range that puts the odds of a Wildrose majority strongly in their favour. The Tories stand between eight and 55 seats, which makes a PC win plausible but nevertheless unlikely.

Edmonton vote projections

The one region of the province keeping them in the game is Edmonton, where the Progressive Conservatives gained 1.8 points since Apr. 11. They now lead with 38.7% and have gained one seat. Wildrose is down 1.9 points to 27.3%, while the New Democrats are up 1.8 points to 16.4%.

The Liberals have dropped 0.8 points to 13.9%, shutting them out seat-wise. Though they could still potentially win three seats in the capital and take 16.9% of the vote, they are being squeezed out by the other three parties. This has been going on since Apr. 5.

The Alberta Party is down 0.7 points to 2.3%. Also note that the projection was updated to accurately reflect where candidates for the Alberta, Evergreen, and other parties are running. This has had the effect of boosting support for these parties in each riding (i.e., a party at 5% in a region with two ridings would have 5% in each, if they only run one candidate they would need to have 10% in that one riding).

In Calgary, Wildrose is up 1.5 points and two seats to 47.8% and 26 seats. They also have it within their power to sweep the city, though as many as seven Tories could survive the onslaught. The PCs are down 1.8 points to 30.5%, while the Liberals are up 1.5 points to 11.6% and the NDP down 0.2 points to 7.2%. Though this is one bit of good news for the Liberals, they are far from being within range of a single seat in the city.

In the rest of the province, Wildrose has taken a step back from its high and is down 2.3 points to 50.2% support. This has cost them two seats in the region, both going to the Tories. They are up 0.8 points to 30.7%. The Liberals (+0.1) and Alberta Party (-0.1) are virtually unchanged at 7.2% and 2%, respectively. The New Democrats, however, are up 1.5 points to 8% and could even win as much as 11% of the vote and one seat outside the two cities.

The three polls added to the projection all tell somewhat different stories, one of the reasons why the likely seat and vote ranges are so wide.

ThinkHQ (Apr. 9-10, 1,223 surveyed) has Wildrose steady at 43% since their Apr. 2-3 poll, while the Tories are down one to 29% support. They generally have the parties holding firm throughout the province, though they see the parties neck-and-neck in Edmonton. Interestingly, however, ThinkHQ records that the personal impression of Wildrose has dropped significantly in the last week in Edmonton.

Abacus Data (Apr. 9-11, 900 surveyed) puts Wildrose up three points since their Apr. 2-4 poll to 46%, while the Tories are down two to 29%. They show big Wildrose gains in Calgary and a big PC drop in the rest of Alberta, while giving the Tories a seven point (and increasing) edge in Edmonton.

Finally, Campaign Research (Apr. 11, 894 surveyed) has Wildrose down 2.7 points since their Apr. 3 poll to 42.8%, while the Tories are up six points to 34.4% support. They show general stability in Calgary and the rest of Alberta, but a big Tory leap in Edmonton, where they hold a 22-point lead over Wildrose.

If there is a trend to be seen in these polls, it is that the fortunes are improving for the Progressive Conservatives in Edmonton, but that they trail by significant (insurmountable?) margins in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. This is, of course, reflected in the projection.

Did the debate change anything? What about Peter Lougheed's public endorsement of Alison Redford? We shall soon find out. A poll by Return on Insight out today shows a somewhat closer race between the Tories and Wildrose, however the firm had no other poll out during the campaign with which to compare trends. But with such a wide gap between the two frontrunners, the best Redford might be able to hope for is a minority - headed by Danielle Smith.

Wildrose lead over PCs narrows

Wildrose is still on track to win a strong majority in Alberta's provincial election, but the margin between it and the governing Progressive Conservatives has narrowed over the past week.

Though the projection was updated yesterday afternoon to reflect the latest Léger Marketing poll, it is more helpful to compare today's update (which also includes the new Forum survey) to that of Apr. 5, when a batch of polls were added to the projection model. This allows us to contrast the changes in the aggregate rather than how the individual Léger and Forum polls have shifted the projection back and forth.

Since Apr. 5, Wildrose has slipped 0.4 points to 40.9% support. The PCs have picked up 1.2 points and now sit at 33.4%, a narrowing of the margin between the two parties by 1.6 points.

The Liberals have dropped 1.1 points to 11.1% support, while the New Democrats are up 0.4 points since Apr. 5 to 10.8%. The Alberta Party is down 0.2 points to 2.1% support.

Due to this shrinking gap, Wildrose is now projected to win 56 seats, down two since before the Easter weekend. The Progressive Conservatives are up two seats to 26, while the New Democrats are unchanged with four seats and the Liberals with one.

But the polls are beginning to agree with one another less, meaning the likely vote ranges have widened significantly. Wildrose is now projected to take between 35.9% and 45.9% of the vote, a much greater range of likely outcomes than that of Apr. 5 (39% to 43.5%). The Tories are likely to take between 30.5% and 36.3% of the vote, overlapping only a little with Wildrose.

The Liberals would take between 9.6% and 12.6% of the vote if an election were held today, while the New Democrats sit between 9.2% and 12.4%. The Alberta Party would likely receive the support of between 1.4% and 2.8% of Albertans.

This wider range of outcomes means a wider range of likely seat wins: Wildrose would win between 33 and 76 seats if an election were held today, compared to between 9 and 52 seats for the Tories. This runs the gamut between PC disaster to majority, though anyway you slice it Wildrose is poised to make historic gains. Of course, something near the projected result is the most likely, so the chances of the Progressive Conservatives forming a majority government or being reduced to single digits are quite low.

The New Democrats should win between one and seven seats (the first indication that the NDP could actually suffer losses) and the Liberals between one and three seats.

Almost all of these Liberal and NDP seats are expected to come in Edmonton, where the two parties are neck-and-neck in the battle for third place. The Liberals have the inside track, but have lost one point since Apr. 5 and now sit at 14.7% support. The New Democrats are down 1.2 points to 14.6%, while the Alberta Party is down 0.4 points to 3%. All three parties are well behind the Tories and Wildrose. The PCs are up a point to 36.9% while Wildrose is up 1.4 points to 29.2%, though their likely ranges overlap a little: 33% to 40.7% for the Tories and 24.7% to 33.7% for Wildrose.

Calgary vote projections

The best piece of news for the Progressive Conservatives, however, is in Calgary. They have gained 1.9 points and two seats since Apr. 5, though they still trail Wildrose with only 32.3% support. But it is a reversal of a slow decline in the city, as the chart to the left shows.

Wildrose is up 0.9 points to 46.3% and is projected to win 24 seats. After the blip that was caused by the Léger poll, Wildrose is back to making gains in Calgary.

The Liberals, however, are down significantly. Since Apr. 5, they have slipped 2.9 points to only 10.1% support. Note that the Liberals took  32.7% of the vote in the city in 2008. That is a remarkable collapse for the party.

The New Democrats, however, are up 0.2 points in Calgary. They are out of the race in the city, though, as they have only 7.4% support.

That betters their 6.5% support in the rest of Alberta, a drop of 1.1 points since Apr. 5. Wildrose leads here with 52.5% support, a gain of 0.9 points. The Tories are down 0.3 points to 29.9% while the Liberals are treading water, picking up 0.1 point to reach 7.1% support. The Alberta Party is up 0.3 points outside the two main cities and are projected to have the support of 2.1% of voters in this region.

The two polls that have come out so far this week are somewhat divergent, and this is the main reason why the projection ranges are currently so wide. Léger polled over the Easter weekend, and found that the margin between Wildrose and the PCs had shrunk by 6.1 points. Wildrose slipped 5.8 points since their poll of Apr. 2-4 to 35.5% while the Tories gained 0.3 points to reach 34.2% support.

Forum's poll, conducted on Monday, instead found the gap between the two parties to still be very wide: 12 points. Wildrose's support (43%) was unchanged from the Apr. 2 poll, but the Tories picked up two points to hit 31%. The numbers and margin might be quite different (as are the methodologies used, the number of Albertans surveyed, and the field dates), but these two polls do seem to indicate that the race is tightening up.

This is, perhaps, not too surprising. Wildrose stormed ahead early in the campaign, and now that Albertans are paying more attention to their policies and candidates there is a bit of blow back. Both Léger and Forum showed that some of the key campaign promises of Wildrose are not very popular, and this kind of momentum was never going to be sustainable.

I expect that the gap will continue to narrow in the coming days, making tomorrow night's debate all the more important. Danielle Smith can solidify her lead with a good performance, or she can lose that lead by allowing Alison Redford to define her and her party as unprepared for office. How Brian Mason and Raj Sherman, the NDP and Liberal leaders, will treat the two frontrunners could also be a factor. If they focus on Smith, they might push her fence-sitting voters over to the Tories. If they focus on Redford, she will have to spend part of the debate defending herself rather than going after Smith. It should be interesting to see how it plays out, and how the numbers move over the weekend.

Note: The riding-by-riding projections can be accessed by clicking on the "Alberta Riding Projections" banner at the top of this page, while full regional breakdowns can be accessed by clicking on "Regional Vote and Seat Projections" in the right-hand column. You can also check out which polls are included in the projection and their relative weight by scrolling to the bottom of this page. These features are unavailable on the mobile version of the site.

Ray of hope for PCs in Edmonton

Though Wildrose continues to widen its lead in both vote share and seats in the Alberta projection, there is some indication that the Progressive Conservatives are bouncing back in Edmonton. They are still hemorrhaging support in Calgary and the rest of Alberta, but has the bleeding stopped in the provincial capital?

The projection was updated yesterday afternoon, and since the projection of Apr. 4 Wildrose has picked up 0.5 points and is now projected to take 41.3% of the vote. The Tories have managed to hold relatively steady, gaining 0.1 point. If an election were held today, they would be projected to take 32.2% of the vote.

The Liberals are up 0.2 points to 12.2% while the New Democrats are down 0.9 points to 10.4%. The Alberta Party has dropped 0.3 points to 2.3% support.

The ranges are relatively narrow for Wildrose (39% to 43.5%) and the NDP (9.5% to 11.3%), but they have widened for the Tories (29.6% to 35.2%) and the Liberals (9.2% to 15.2%).

In terms of seats, Wildrose is up six from Apr. 4 to 58, while the Tories are down four to 24. The Liberals are down two to only one seat, while the New Democrats are unchanged at four seats.

The seat range has worsened significantly for the Liberals, who are now projected to win between zero and only three seats. The New Democrats are down one seat in their high range, to between two and six seats.

For Wildrose and the Progressive Conservatives, however, there is now a little bit of overlap where before there had been none. Wildrose could win as many as 73 seats - a massive landslide - or as few as 41, giving them a minority government, or perhaps the role of Official Opposition. The Tories range between 11 seats - a disaster - or 43, one short of a majority government. In other words, whereas the polls suggested there was no scenario where the PCs could pull out a victory earlier this week, there is a small glimmer of hope for the Tories at this stage.

The main reason is that they have made gains in the provincial capital. They have picked up 3.8 points and three seats, and are projected to have the support of 35.9% of Edmontonians. They would win 19 seats, or as many as 23 seats if their high projected result of 39.7% came to fruition. The Liberals have dropped three points to 15.7% and two seats to one, while Wildrose is down 1.5 points to 27.8% and one seat to five. The New Democrats have slipped by 0.3 points to 15.8%, though that now puts them in third in the city. The Alberta Party is up 0.6 points to 3.4%.

Since the campaign began, this is the first gain that the PCs have made in any region of the province. That is certainly good news for them, but they have continued to slide in Calgary (though that slide is beginning to slow). They are down 0.2 points to 30.4% in Calgary, and are now projected to win only one seat (but could win as many as eight). Wildrose is up 0.8 points to 45.4% and one seat to 26, while the Liberals are up 1.1 points to 13%. The New Democrats are up 0.5 points to 7.2%.

Rest of Alberta

The biggest shift has come outside of the two major cities. There, Wildrose is up a whopping 4.9 points to 51.6% of the vote. Their high range even puts them at 59% and 30 seats, though they are currently projected to win 27. That is a gain of six seats since Apr. 4. The Progressive Conservatives are down three points to 30.2% and are now projected to win four seats, a loss of six.

The New Democrats have slid by 4.3 points and are now projected to have the support of 7.6% of Albertans outside of Edmonton and Calgary, while the Liberals are up one point to 7%.

But this chart shows how Wildrose has really taken off in this part of the province since the campaign began. And unlike Edmonton (where Wildrose lost support) and Calgary (where their gains are slowing), the pace of gains for Danielle Smith's party in the rest of Alberta is increasing.

This puts her in a very good position. She stands a strong chance of sweeping, or virtually sweeping, the "rural" regions of the province. Her big lead in Calgary gives her a whole swathe of seats, and being able to capture even a handful of ridings in Edmonton ensures she can form a majority government. There is a lot of padding in Wildrose's numbers - they can take another hit in Edmonton as well as in Calgary and the rest of the province and still take some 50 seats.

But this sort of momentum is unsustainable, so we should expect Wildrose to plateau soon. It appears it may have already happened in Edmonton. Plateauing at this level of support would be no problem for the party, but the question remains whether there is going to be any bounce back after the first two weeks of dizzying increase. Maybe Edmonton is ahead of the curve and we'll see Wildrose drop down elsewhere, or perhaps the provincial capital is a political island. This race is far from over.

Wildrose momentum continues

Another poll has been added to the pile, and it shows that Wildrose's momentum from the first week of the campaign has carried over to the second. Danielle Smith's party is now projected to win a comfortable majority of seats.

Since the projection of 1 April, Wildrose has picked up eight seats and 3.5 points, and is now projected to win 52 seats and 40.8% of the vote. This puts them well ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, who have dropped eight seats to 28 and 1.6 points to 32.1% of the vote.

The polls are also tightening up, reducing the projected ranges of the two parties. Wildrose is now on track to win between 39.1% and 42.5% of the vote, compared to the 33.3% to 41.3% of 1 April. The Tories are now down to between 30.6% and 33.6% support.

The Liberals have also taken a step backwards, dropping 2.1 points to 12% of the vote. They could dip as low as 9.5%, or as high as 14.5%, based on the degree of volatility in their polling. The New Democrats are up 0.2 points to 11.3% of the vote. Both the Liberals and the New Democrats are unchanged at three and four seats, respectively.

The most consequential shift in support has taken place in Calgary, where Wildrose is up 1.7 points to 44.7% support. They are now projected to win 25 seats, up four from the last projection. The Tories have dropped 0.9 points to only 30.6% in the city, and are projected to hold on to only two seats (though they could win as many as eight). The Liberals dropped 2.2 points to 11.9%.

In Edmonton, Wildrose has stolen 2.4 points from the Tories, and now trails the PCs by a narrow margin: 29.3% to 32.1%. The Liberals are up 0.5 points to 18.7%, while the New Democrats are down 0.4 points in the provincial capital to 16.1%.

And in the rest of the province, Wildrose has picked up four points and three seats. They sit at 46.7% of the vote in this region and are projected to win 21 seats. The Tories are down one point to 33.2%, while the Liberals have fallen 3.5 points to only 6%. The New Democrats sit comfortably in third with 11.9% of the vote, a gain of 2.3 points.

As the polls have begun to align, the degree of uncertainty has decreased. This means that Wildrose is now projected to win outright, without their ranges overlapping with that of the Tories. Wildrose should win between 42 and 66 seats at these levels of support, putting them almost entirely in majority territory. The Tories should win between 16 and 41 seats, suggesting that, if an election were held today, they would have no chance of winning it.

The New Democrats are projected to win between two and seven seats, while the Liberal high range has dropped to six seats from 10. The NDP, then, has the inside track on becoming the third party in the legislature.

With Wildrose gaining so much support between now and the 2008 election, the projection model has a few quirks. As Wildrose took only a small portion of the vote in the last election, their gains are amplified in ridings where the party has done moderately well in that election and in by-elections since. Floor-crossers are also seeing their numbers inflated. As the model uses a manner of proportional swing, this is what can happen. That's why Wildrose can be projected to win 70.5% of the vote in Airdrie and 86.1% in Cardston-Rocky View. Will Wildrose actually get that high of the vote share in these two ridings? Probably not, but what can be taken from this is that the Wildrose candidates are very likely to win.

But anyone who says that huge increases of support from one election to the next make it impossible to accurately project a party's performance is wrong. Individual oddities can occur, however. In the 2011 federal election, and with the correct province-wide vote numbers in Quebec, the projection model would have pegged NDP support in Outremont at 76.4%, rather than the 56.4% that Thomas Mulcair actually got. This occurred because NDP support in Quebec grew by leaps and bounds since 2008 but Outremont was already a strong NDP riding. On the other hand, even these exceptional cases can be quite accurate. Gatineau was a good NDP riding in 2008, and so the party would have been projected to take 65.8% of the vote in 2011. That might have seemed high in what had previously been a close race, but in the end the NDP took 61.8% of the vote in the riding.

Province-wide, and again with the right vote numbers, the model would have given the NDP 60 seats in Quebec. They actually won 59. This shows that, even when a party goes from zero to 60 in one election, a proportional swing model can cope.

The poll from ThinkHQ is very welcome, as it confirms the findings of the three polls taken shortly after the election was called. Consistency is good, especially since ThinkHQ uses an online panel, as opposed to the IVR method used by the other three firms. That gives a mix of methodologies showing the same results.

Since ThinkHQ's last poll, Wildrose is up 10 points while the Tories are down six points, to 43% and 30%, respectively. After Abacus, this is the second consecutive poll putting the margin between the two parties at 13 points. The regional results also jive with everything else we've seen, namely a run-away lead by Wildrose in Calgary and outside the two main cities, and a very tight race in Edmonton.

The Wildrose balloon has not deflated yet, and if the campaign continues in the manner that it has so far it is unlikely to deflate before election day. Danielle Smith has terrific personal numbers, with an approval rating of 56% to only 32% disapproving, a far better result than Alison Redford's 48% to 43% spread. Redford's disapproval rating has been on a steady increase since she became leader, while Smith's approval rating has inched up slowly in every ThinkHQ poll since December. Leadership drives election results, and right now Smith has both hands on the wheel.

Wildrose in majority territory

Two more polls have been released over the last few days, confirming that Wildrose holds a substantial lead over the Progressive Conservatives. Accordingly, Wildrose is now projected to win 44 seats and a slim majority government.

Wildrose is now projected to take 37.3% of the vote, a gain of 0.9 points since the last update of 29 March. The Progressive Conservatives have slipped 1.5 points to 33.7%, putting them almost four points behind Wildrose.

This has resulted in Wildrose being bumped up to 44 seats, the bare minimum for a majority government in the 87-seat legislature. The Tories are down to 36 seats, putting them in the role of the Official Opposition.

The Liberals have gained one point and would be projected to take 14.1% of the vote if an election were held today. This has increased their seat haul to three seats from only one.

The New Democrats are virtually unchanged, their support increasing 0.1 points to 11.1% and four seats.

The uncertainty in the polls is still somewhat high, and will be until newer polls confirm what the last three have suggested. This volatility puts the Wildrose range at between 33.3% and 41.3% of the vote, overlapping positively with the Tories' range of 28.7% to 38.7%. The Liberals are projected to take between 11.6% and 16.6% of the vote, while the New Democrats stand at between 10.0% and 12.1%.

This gives Wildrose and the Progressive Conservatives are very wide range, though an outcome close to the projected result is the most likely. Nevertheless, Wildrose's range stands at between 20 and 70 seats while the Tories could take between 12 and 64 seats if an election were held today. That may not be very helpful, but the polls are still diverging wildly. The most recent data, however, points to a Wildrose majority.

The Liberal range has increased significantly, and they could take between zero and 10 seats. The latter result would be quite good for the Liberals, as it would mean an increase in their representation in the legislature. The NDP's range is between two and eight seats, thus ensuring that they will maintain or increase their own representation. In that sense, as the Liberals could still be shut out, the NDP is in a much better position.

Wildrose has made the biggest gain in Calgary, increasing its projected support by 2.2 points to 43%. They now hold a double-digit lead over the Tories in the city, as they have slipped 2.1 points to 31.5%. Wildrose is projected to take 21 seats to only six for the Tories. The Liberals are up 0.6 points to 14.1%, putting their high range in the city at two seats. They are still more likely to win none, however.

In Edmonton, the Liberals have made the most significant gain, increasing their support by 1.1 points to 18.2%. They are still well behind Wildrose, however, which is up 0.4 points to 26.9% in the capital. The Progressive Conservatives lead with 34.5%, down 1.2 points. The New Democrats are up 0.2 points to 16.5%, but could place as high as second with 21.1% of the vote and seven seats.

In the rest of the province, Wildrose has actually slipped. They've dropped 0.3 points to 42.7%, though they have still gained ground on the PCs as they are down 0.9 points to 34.2%. The Liberals and NDP have both gained in the region, though both are also below 10%.

Abacus Data's poll is the most up-to-date added to the model, but like Forum and Campaign they are using the IVR model for this election. They show Wildrose leading with 41%, an incredible 12-point gain since their last poll of 5-7 March. The Tories are down six points to 28%, while the Liberals and NDP are each down two points to 16% and 12%, respectively.

The Tories have shed support in the two cities (though they still hold a narrow lead in Edmonton), but have actually held firm in the rest of the province. There, the Liberals and NDP have dropped away. Have rural Albertans recognized the race as being only between the PCs and Wildrose?

Campaign Research also released a poll, echoing the findings of Forum and Abacus. The firm was recently in the news for the calls to Irwin Cotler's riding, but the level of detail about their methodology is commendable (5% response rate on IVR calls, for example) and their findings are well within the norm.

They have Wildrose in the lead with 39.6% of the vote to 30.3% for the Tories, 13% for the Liberals, and 11.6% for the NDP. Here again the Tories still lead in Edmonton, though it is a close four-way race. Wildrose is well ahead in Calgary and running away with it in the rest of the province.

Undoubtedly, Wildrose has the momentum after Week One. Will they still have that momentum after Week Two? Things are going smoothly for the party, and they are benefiting from the clumsy campaign being put on by the Progressive Conservatives. Unless something happens on the campaign trail, Wildrose might be able to maintain this momentum up until the debate. That could be the turning point (or nail-in-the-coffin) of the campaign.

Alberta Tories flirting with minority

Two more polls were released today for the Alberta election campaign, and both indicate that the race between the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose is on.

The margin between the Tories and Wildrose has now shrunk to only 1.4 points, according to ThreeHundredEight.com's projection. The PCs still lead with 36.6%, but are trailed very closely by Wildrose, who now stand at 35.2%. That is a slip of 2.2 points for the Tories and a gain of three points for Wildrose.

But with these new surveys the polling volatility has increased, as they are starting to tell different stories. Léger's poll puts the margin at almost four points with the PCs ahead, while Forum puts Wildrose 10 points up on the Tories. Forum's poll is the only poll so far conducted after the election call, but it was also in the field on only one day, which can disproportionately swing the mood of the electorate depending on what was in the news.

Because of this degree of uncertainty, the ranges have widened to between 33% and 40% for the Tories and between 31% and 39% for Wildrose. In other words, it is possible that Danielle Smith's party is indeed ahead.

The Progressive Conservatives are still projected to win a majority with 47 seats, but that is down eight from only yesterday and three seats more than the bare minimum for a majority government. Wildrose is projected to win 35, but due to polling volatility it is possible that Wildrose could win a majority if an election were held today. Their ranges run the full gamut of between 16 and 62 seats. Hopefully the polls will tighten up a little before election day.

The Liberals and New Democrats have each taken a step backwards, with the Liberals dropping 0.5 points to 13% and the NDP dropping 0.9 points to 11.1%.

Regionally, Wildrose has gained two points in Calgary (they now lead with 39.8%), 4.4 points in Edmonton (they sit second at 26.2%), and six points in the rest of Alberta (they lead with 41.6%).  The Tories have dropped 0.9 points in Edmonton to hit 37.4%, and are also down 1.9 points in Calgary (to 34.7%) and 4.7 points in the rest of Alberta (to 36.5%).

The Liberals dropped 1.4 points in Edmonton and now sit in third with 16.9%, while the New Democrats were down 1.6 points in the provincial capital to 15.3%.

Forum's poll, however, puts Wildrose ahead in every party of the province - including Edmonton. Forum was last in the field on 13 February, and since then Wildrose has gained 11 points and is leading in this survey with 41%.

The Progressive Conservatives are down six points to 31%, the Liberals are down two points to 12%, the NDP is down two points to 11%, and the Alberta Party is steady at 2% support.

Since that mid-February poll, Wildrose has made double-digit gains almost everywhere: 11 points in Calgary, Edmonton, and southern Alberta, and nine points in northern Alberta. There is hardly a race whatsoever in Calgary, while the party is doing very well outside the two main centres. The Tories are still competitive in this poll in Edmonton, but to be down in the one part of the province that gives them an inherent advantage over Wildrose is absolutely disastrous for Alison Redford.

We'll need to see if other post-writ polls confirm this state of affairs. If they do, then the Tories are in grave danger of losing this election.

Léger's poll, which was taken before the election was called and at around the same time as yesterday's polls from ThinkHQ and Ipsos-Reid, shows the Progressive Conservatives at 37.4%, almost four points ahead of Wildrose, who sit at 33.6%.

Léger was last in the field 13-18 January, and since then the Tories have lost about 16 points, a huge drop in support. That Léger poll had disagreed with some other surveys showing a closer race, but now Léger is well within what others have recorded.

Wildrose has gained 18 points since mid-January, while the Liberals are up one and the NDP is down two.

Here, we see a close race in Calgary and the rural parts of the province, and the Tories well ahead in Edmonton with Wildrose in second. This is what the other pre-writ surveys indicated.

Have things changed so drastically in the course of only a few days? It is too early to tell. What is certain is that the Progressive Conservatives definitely have a fight on their hands. But Wildrose may have peaked too early - if Albertans see that Danielle Smith might become the next Premier, we could see supporters of the Liberals and NDP flock to the more centrist PCs under Alison Redford. Or, if Albertans decide that 41 years is enough of one-party rule, this may be the first sign that Wildrose is on track for a landslide.

Wildrose closes gap as campaign begins

New surveys by ThinkHQ and Ipsos-Reid, taken shortly before the Alberta election was officially called yesterday, indicate that the Wildrose Party has significantly closed the gap over the past weeks.

The margin between the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose is now projected to be only 6.6 points, with the Tories sitting at 38.8% and Wildrose at 32.2%. Since 13 March, the Tories have remained stable but Wildrose has picked up 4.6 points. The two parties' ranges almost overlap, with polling volatility indicating that Wildrose could get as much as 36.7% of the vote, compared to a low of 36.8% for the Tories.

The result is that the Progressive Conservatives are now projected to win 55 seats, down from 65 in mid-March. That still puts them well over the bar for a majority government, but their low range reaches down to 42 seats, just short of a majority. The good news for Alison Redford, however, is that Wildrose is now projected to win no more than 36 seats, suggesting that the Tories will be able to hold on to power with these levels of support.

Wildrose has picked up an extra ten seats since the last projection, and are now projected to win 27. They are no longer in danger of placing behind the Liberals, who are projected to win one seat. They could win as many as six, however, tying them with the high range of the New Democrats. But the NDP is projected to win four seats, putting them in third place in the legislature.

Calgary is where Wildrose's gains have been concentrated, as they have picked up 5.4 points and now lead in the city with a projected 37.8% support. That's enough to give them 16 seats in the city, pushing the Tories down to 11 seats with 36.6% of the vote. The PCs have dropped two points in Calgary while the Liberals are down almost three to only 13.1% support.

Calgary does appear to be the major battlefield as this race begins. Though a few seats are at play in Edmonton, the stakes there have more to do with the performances of the Liberals and the NDP. But if Wildrose is going to have any hope of winning this election, they need to make major gains in Calgary, in addition to the rural parts of the province where they might be expected to have an easier time of it.

As the chart shows, Wildrose has slowly progressed upwards in Calgary since the beginning of February, their recent bump coming primarily at the expense of the Liberals, but also of the Tories. Whether or not Danielle Smith is actually stealing votes directly away from the Liberals is impossible to know, but it could be that some Liberal voters are moving to the Tories to stop Wildrose, while some right-wing Tory voters are moving to Wildrose to defeat the government.

The biggest drop in PC support, however, has come in Edmonton. The party is down 3.6 points there to 38.3%, though that still puts them well ahead of Wildrose, who have moved into second place with a 2.6 gain to hit 21.8%. They are now projected to win two seats in the Edmonton CMA, a breakthrough in and of itself. The New Democrats have also taken a step forward in the provincial capital, gaining 2.1 points to reach 16.9%. The NDP's high range is 20.4%, giving them the potential to finish second in Edmonton.

In the rest of the province, the two parties on the left of the Alberta spectrum have taken a big hit, with a drop of 2.6 points for the NDP and 2.9 points for the Liberals, who are now projected to finish fourth in the region. Both the Tories (+4.5) and Wildrose (+3.1) have made gains in this part of the province.

The poll from ThinkHQ is the newest and largest to be added to the projection, and since the firm was last in the field between 16-20 February, the Progressive Conservatives have dropped six points to 36%. Wildrose is up four to 33%, while the NDP and Liberals are tied at 13% (unchanged for the NDP, up one for the Liberals).

The Tories have lost support since mid-February in both Calgary and Edmonton, primarily to the benefit of Wildrose and the NDP. The PCs placed second in Calgary in this poll, while only holding an eight-point lead in Edmonton.

The results for the rest of Alberta were not released, but my estimate puts the Tories slightly ahead of Wildrose for this poll, with the Liberals and NDP well behind.

The negative personal numbers for Alison Redford in this survey give us an indication of why the PCs have taken a hit on the eve of the campaign.

Ipsos-Reid's survey ended on the same day as ThinkHQ's, but stretched back a little further. Ipsos-Reid hasn't been in the field for some time, and in its first poll of the year puts the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose tied at 38% apiece. The NDP trails in third with 12% while the Liberals are at 11%.

Here again, we see that Wildrose has moved ahead in Calgary and is running in second in Edmonton. Ipsos-Reid puts Wildrose also in the lead in the rural parts of the province, but narrowly.

These two polls suggest that Wildrose is making important gains, particularly in Calgary, just as the campaign gets underway. Danielle Smith has the momentum, but is still a long way from over-taking the Tories in a definitive fashion. The party needs to win a lot more seats in Calgary and outside the two main cities to have any hope of winning the election, a prospect that will remain dim unless they can make some inroads in the provincial capital.

But the campaign is just beginning, and these surveys are showing that it will be an interesting race. The Progressive Conservatives hold the inside track thanks to their lead in Edmonton and their inherent advantage in organization, fundraising, and incumbency, but that advantage is far from decisive.