February 2011 Best and Worst Case Scenarios

I have a few provincial polls to get to this week, and I expect there will be a new EKOS poll on Thursday, so the timing is right for a look at February 2011's best and worst case scenarios for each party. Who knows, this may be the last such look before the next campaign.

If you missed it, I also posted earlier today with February's polling averages.

First, the standard boiler plate.

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them. And the same goes for a worst case scenario, using all of their worst results.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could have gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats only, and not necessarily about how a party would fit in with the others in Parliament.

As always, we shall start with the New Democrats.

Their best case scenario was quite good. With 22.7% of the vote, the NDP wins 44 seats but remains the fourth party in the House. They win 14 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, four in the Prairies, 18 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada (I'm awarding each party one seat each in the North for all of these scenarios).

The Conservatives form another minority government, while the Liberals pick up a couple seats.

Their worst case scenario, on the other hand, is quite bad. With only 11% of the vote, the NDP wins 15 seats: two in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, eight in Ontario, none in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservatives form a majority government with 162 seats, while the Bloc and Liberals both tread water. In other words, the Conservatives win their majority on the backs of the NDP.

This is a wider range than the NDP had in January, which shouldn't be too much of a surprise considering there were twice as many polls in February. Whereas January's range was between 18-36 seats and 13.1%-19.6% of the vote, February's is 15-44 seats and 11%-22.7% of the vote. So, the election could either be a disaster or one for the ages.

For the Liberals, there's a greater risk of it being a disaster.

Their best case scenario still puts them in the opposition benches, as with 33.0% of the vote they win 113 seats: 12 in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, 18 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada.

But the Conservatives win 127 seats, and in order to form a government the Liberals would require some sort of agreement with the NDP and Bloc.

Their worst case scenario is catastrophic. With only 21.8% of the vote, the Liberals win 55 seats: three in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 29 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservatives form a majority government with 168 seats, while the Bloc wins enough seats that they would likely form the Official Opposition after a slew of Liberal MPs resign.

As with the NDP, the Liberals had a wider range in February: 55-113 seats and 21.8%-33% of the vote. In January, that range was 76-110 seats and 24.1%-31.4% of the vote. The range has really dropped down for the Liberals. In the past, they could at least count on a repeat of their 2008 performance. But now it looks like they risk losing even more.

The Conservatives are back up into majority territory, though they are still at risk of losing their hold on government. With 43.1% of the vote, the Conservatives win 170 seats: 25 in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in the Prairies, 62 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals are reduced to 58 seats, though the Bloc picks up a few and wins 50.

On the other hand, with 32.2% of the vote the Conservatives win only 115 seats in their worst case scenario: 12 in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 42 in Ontario, five in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 103 seats, and could easily team-up with the NDP, who win another 32 seats. It isn't a majority, but it is far more workable than what the Conservatives would have.

This puts the Conservative range in February at between 115 and 170 seats and between 32.2% and 43.1% of the vote. In January, that range was 122-146 and 32%-37.3%.

It's a bit of a gamble. The Conservatives have the ability to win a majority if they can run a flawless campaign, at least according to the polling data from February. But they could also tank, stumble, and likely face defeat at the hands of a buoyed opposition.

February was a bit of an exceptional month. It will be very interesting to see how March's numbers go, as things haven't been going smoothly for the Tories of late. I would not be surprised if all of the hubbub around Bev Oda and Jason Kenney and election spending result in no change in the numbers whatsoever. I expect, however, that the Conservatives are likely to drop back to around 35% support.

But how long until we're in another election campaign? The budget could be defeated in less than three weeks. Other scenarios put the government falling before that. It will be a rocky month.

January Best and Worst Case Scenarios

When it rains, it pours. It isn't strange for a week to pass without a poll, but sometimes it seems that they all try to get their say in at once. We had a "controversial" EKOS poll on Friday, a passed-around article from the Canadian Press on polling on Sunday, polls from Léger Marketing and Ipsos-Reid on Monday, and now today we have a poll released by Harris-Decima and a federal poll conducted for Newfoundland & Labrador by NTV. I also have two provincial polls I have to get to and a Newfoundland & Labrador by-election taking place tonight.

So, I need to get this out of the way before we pass into the second half of February. Yes, it's the January best/worst case scenarios!

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them. And the same goes for a worst case scenario.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could have gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats only, and not necessarily about how a party would fit in with the others in Parliament.

January did not have a lot of polling, so in all of these best and worst case scenarios the ranges have narrowed, rather than expanded in any direction.

Let's start with the New Democrats. Their best case scenario would put them at 36 seats, exactly where they currently are in the House of Commons. With 19.6% of the vote, they would win 11 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 13 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada.

But in this scenario the Conservatives and Liberals win about the same amount of seats as they have now, so that means no real change.

Their worst case scenario would reduce them to only 18 seats. With 13.1% of the vote, they would win three seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and none in Atlantic Canada.

This puts the NDP range at between 13.1% and 19.6% of the vote, and between 18 and 36 seats. Their December range was 12.4% to 24.1% and 15 seats to 40 seats. So, January's worst is better, but it's best is worse.

For the Liberals, their best case scenario in January still keeps them out of power. They would win 110 seats, 12 fewer than the Tories. But with the NDP they could outnumber the Conservatives.

With 31.4% of the vote, the Liberals would win 12 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, seven in the Prairies, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 27 in Atlantic Canada.

Their worst case scenario, however, would peg them at 76 seats. With only 24.1% of the vote, the Liberals would win four seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 40 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives would win 143 seats, giving them as many as they currently have in Parliament.

The Liberal range has changed little from January. It is now between 24.1% and 31.4% of the vote, whereas it was between 23.9% and 32.4% in December. For seats, it has gone from 68-110 to 76-110. It gives them a better floor, but an election could still be dangerous.

For the Conservatives, their best case scenario is another minority government. They could only have won 146 seats in January, three more than they currently hold. With 37.3% of the vote, they would win 23 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 22 in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada. The opposition would be unlikely to oust the government in such a situation.

For their worst case scenario, the Conservatives would still win the plurality of seats: 122. With 32% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 18 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, four in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals and NDP would together win more seats than the Tories.

The Conservative range has narrowed significantly, to between 32% and 37.3% of the vote. In December, it was between 30.6% and 41.8%. In terms of seats, the range has gone from 117-162 in December to 122-146 in January. It makes it a bit of a safer bet for the Conservatives.

But with recent polls, it appears that January was far more calm than February will turn out to be.

December Best and Worst Case Scenarios

With January yet to provide us with a new poll (though that is likely to change tomorrow), what better time to take a last look at December through its best and worst case scenarios for each of the three main federal parties?

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them. And the same goes for a worst case scenario.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could have gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats only, and not necessarily about how a party would fit in with the others in Parliament.

Let's start, as always, with the New Democrats. They did not have a stellar month, and this is reflected in their best case scenario. The party would win 24.1% of the vote, a high watermark for them, but would only win 40 seats. The Conservatives would win 139, the Liberals 80, and the Bloc Quebecois 49. In other words, more or less exactly what the situation in the House of Commons is right now.

The NDP would win 11 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, four in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 17 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada. But with the jump in votes cast, the party would still only be making a tiny seat gain.

Their worst case scenario, however, is disastrous. With only 12.4% of the vote, the NDP would win only 15 seats, barely being recognized as an official party. The Conservatives would win 147 seats, the Liberals 94, and the Bloc Quebecois 52. Safe to say that Jack Layton would find himself out of a job.

The NDP would win two seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 11 in Ontario, none in Quebec, and none in Atlantic Canada.

This gives the NDP a range of between 12.4% and 24.1% support and 15 to 40 seats. It is worse than November's range of between 13.9% and 24.1% of the vote and 22 and 50 seats. If we take the midway point in these ranges, we get 19% and 36 seats for November compared to 18.3% and 28 seats for December. So a step backwards.

For the Liberals, it was a relatively stable month. Their best case scenario would give them 32.4% of the vote and 110 seats, but not enough to propel them into a minority government. The Conservatives would win 129 seats, the Bloc Quebecois 51, and the NDP 18. This is an especially troublesome outcome as the combination of the Liberals and NDP would still be less than the Tory total.

The Liberals would win nine seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 48 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 27 in Atlantic Canada.

Their worst case scenario would make Stéphane Dion look like a political genius. With only 23.9% support, the Liberals would eke out 68 seats, almost handing the Official Opposition role to the Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives would win a small majority with 158 seats, while the Bloc would win 52 and the NDP 30.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 30 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada. It would be even worse than 2008.

The Liberal range has changed only slightly from November. It has improved in popular support, going from 23.2% to 31.3% in November to 23.9% to 32.4% in December. But in terms of seats it has worsened, going from 73 to 110 seats in November to 68 to 110 seats in December. It appears that, for whatever reason, 110 seats is the Liberal ceiling for the time being. For an average result, November had the Liberals at 27.3% of the vote and 92 seats, compared to December's 28.2% and 89 seats.

Finally, the Conservatives. December was a good month for them. So good, in fact, that it puts a majority within sight. With 41.8% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 162 seats and a majority government. The Liberals would be reduced to 72 seats and the NDP to 21, while the Bloc would increase its seat totals to 52.

The Conservatives would win 25 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 64 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada. A majority without Quebec - I didn't think it was possible.

On the flip side, the Conservatives could be manhandled. But they would still come out on top, at least in terms of seats. With 30.6% support, the Conservatives would win 117 seats. The Liberals would win 102, the NDP 33, and the Bloc Quebecois 56. It would not be enough to hold on to the reins of government.

In this scenario the Conservatives win 18 seats in British Columbia, 25 in Alberta, 20 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 46 in Ontario, three in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada.

For December, this puts the Tory range at between 30.6% and 41.8% of the vote. The seat range is between 117 and 162 seats, far better in both cases than November's 29.2% to 38.4% and 107 seats to 147 seats. While November's average was 33.8% and 127 seats, December's was 36.2% and 140 seats.

For the opposition, these are troubling results. The NDP can only make marginal gains or risk losing everything, while the Liberals could do worse than 2008 or still be behind the Conservatives if everything goes right. And a Conservative majority could also be possible.

For the Tories it is high risk, high reward. They could be ousted by a coalition, or they could form a majority. Both Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff have shown, up to this point, that they aren't prepared to roll the dice with so much at stake. But is Stephen Harper a gambling man?

November Best and Worst Case Scenarios

I'll try to be a bit more timely with these monthly averages and best/worst case scenarios in the future. But for now, it's time to look at the best and worst case scenarios from the month of November.

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could have gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats only, and not necessarily about how a party would fit in with the others in Parliament.

Let's start with the New Democrats. They had a decent month, and improved their range over October's best and worst case scenarios. They are still, however, stuck in a fourth-place spot in the House of Commons.

With 24.1% of the vote, the best case scenario for the NDP is a total of 50 seats. The Conservatives would still end up with the greatest number of seats, with 122. The Liberals would win 85 and the Bloc 51.

The NDP would win 16 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 19 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada. It would put them in a good position to form a coalition with the Liberals, but together they would still be short of a majority.The worst case scenario for the NDP would result in the party earning only 13.9% of the vote and 22 seats, while the Conservatives would form a minority government with 139. The Liberals would win 96 and the Bloc 51 seats.

The NDP would win six seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 11 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada.

This puts the New Democratic range at between 13.9% and 24.1% of the vote and between 22 and 50 seats. That's an improvement over October's range of 13.6% to 20.9% of the vote and 21 to 43 seats.

The Liberal best case scenario is just short of a plurality: 110. The Conservatives, meanwhile, would still win 111 seats. But such a close result would give each party an equal chance at forming government. The NDP would win 36 seats and the Bloc would win 51.

With 31.3% of the vote, the Liberals would win 12 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 23 in Atlantic Canada.The worst case scenario would be slightly worse than the party's result in 2008. With only 23.2% of the vote, the Liberals would win 73 seats. The Conservatives would still be short of a majority with 140 seats, while the NDP would win 41 and the Bloc 54.

The Liberals would win four seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 37 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada. It would be a bad result for the party, as even the tiniest step backwards from 2008 would be a complete failure.

The Liberal range for November would have been 23.2% to 31.3% of the vote, and 73 to 110 seats. The range has gotten larger compared to October, when the Liberals had a range of 24.5% to 31.1% of the vote and 75 to 108 seats.

Now, the Conservatives. Still no majority for them in the cards, as their November best case scenario would only give the party 147 seats. The Liberals would win 85 seats and the NDP 27, while the Bloc would win 49 seats.

With 38.4% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 20 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada. It would put the Tories very close to a majority, and so they would likely be able to hang on to power against a weakened NDP and an only marginally larger Liberal caucus, but it would be the same-old situation.The Conservatives' worst case scenario would result in only 107 seats, but it would still give them a six-seat margin over the Liberals. The Bloc would win 53 seats and the NDP 47. It would be very difficult for the Tories to remain in power with this result.

With 29.2% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 13 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 38 in Ontario, five in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservative range for November was between 29.2% and 38.4% of the vote and between 107 and 147 seats. It isn't a huge amount of change from October's range of 29.6% and 37.6% of the vote and between 113 to 147 seats.

The NDP and Liberals have a lot to gain with these numbers - the NDP would win a huge number of seats and have a lot of influence in Parliament, while the Liberals would have a good chance at forming a (weak) minority government. But Michael Ignatieff could also preside over the party's worst-ever performance, while Jack Layton could bring his party back to pre-2004 levels.

The Tories didn't have much to gain in November. A handful of extra seats and a handful of extra votes, but no majority. They could also risk losing their government to the Liberals or a combination of the Liberals and New Democrats.

I've already crunched the numbers for December, but in case a poll is released between Christmas and the New Year (though that is extremely unlikely), I'll hold off until early January. But from what I've seen, December has been a very bad month for the New Democrats and a very good month for the Conservatives.

October Best and Worst Case Scenarios

A little late, but it's time to check in on October's best and worst case scenarios for each of the three national parties. Here's the standard explanation:

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results last month in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could've gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats.

As usual, we shall start with the New Democrats. Their best case scenario is an improvement of one seat from September, and would result in 43 NDP MPs being elected, compared to 55 Bloc members, 82 Liberals, and 130 Conservatives. This would be achieved with 20.9% national support, while the Liberals would have 27.2% and the Conservatives 33.5%. The NDP would win 16 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, four in the Prairies, 15 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and six in Atlantic Canada.Their worst case scenario is much better than it was in September. The party's floor in October was 21 seats, seven more than last month. The Conservatives would, again, win 130 seats in this scenario, with the Liberals taking 102 and the Bloc 55. NDP support would drop to 13.6%, while the Liberals would take 29.7% of the vote and the Conservatives 33.9%.

In this scenario, the NDP would win 10 seats in British Columbia (still not bad), none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, seven in Ontario, one in Quebec, and one in Atlantic Canada.

That puts the NDP's October range at between 21 and 43 seats, and at between 13.6% and 20.9% support. That compares favourably to September's range of 14-42 seats and 12.5% to 20.2% support.

Now, the Liberals. Their best case scenario would actually put them at a greater disadvantage than the Conservative worst case scenario, as you will see below, but gives them more seats.

With 31.1% of the vote, the Liberals would win 108 seats. That is 21 fewer than September's best case scenario. The Conservatives would win 126 seats and 33.3%, while the NDP would win 25 seats and 14.4%. The Liberals would win 11 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada. It would keep them on the opposition benches, however, or force them into a coaltion with the NDP.With 24.5% of the vote, their worst case scenario would be 75 seats, two fewer than September. The Conservatives would win 139 seats and 37.2% while the NDP would take 18.1% and 38 seats. The Liberals would win six seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 34 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada.

This puts the Liberal range at between 75 and 108 seats, and between 24.5% and 31.1% of the vote. That is much worse than September's range of 77 to 129 seats and 25.5% to 34.2% support.

Finally, the Conservatives. Their best case scenario puts them out of the majority territory they were in a month ago. With 37.6% of the vote, they would win 147 seats, 11 fewer than September. The Liberals would win 80 seats and 26.9% of the vote, while the NDP would take 32 seats and 16.8%. The Conservatives would win 17 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 24 in the Prairies, 57 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada.Their worst case scenario would still see them with the most seats in the house: 113, with 29.6% of the vote. That is 13 more seats than in September. The Liberals would win 103 seats and 28.6%, while the NDP would take 38 seats and 18.3% of the vote. The Conservatives would win 14 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 43 in Ontario, three in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada.

That puts the Conservative range at between 113 and 147 seats and between 29.6% and 37.6% of the vote. September's range was between 100 and 158 seats and 29% to 40.2% of the vote.

From this exercise, we can say that the Liberals did not have a very good month in October. While they were capable of winning a minority in September, they've moved away from that now. The NDP has reduced its risk for a calamitous electoral result, while the Conservatives have increased their chances of winning the next election. However, they have also put themselves out of contention for a majority government.

September Best and Worst Case Scenarios

It's that time of the month again - time to check in on the best (and now worst) case scenarios that could have taken place during the previous month. Here's the standard explanation of this exercise:

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results last month in each region (West, Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada).

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the West in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combined them.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could've gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

We'll start with the New Democrats, who had a pretty bad month. But their best case scenario isn't so bad, with 42 seats and 20.2% of the vote. Their worst case scenario, however, is horrible, with only 14 seats and 12.5% support.Their BCS (best case scenario) puts them in a terrific position to form a governing coalition with the Liberals, as their combined seat total outnumbers that of the Conservatives. The NDP cobbles together this result with 18 seats in the West, 17 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada.

Their WCS (worst case scenario) still puts them in a position to work with the Liberals, but unlikely in any formal coalition. With only 14 seats, Jack Layton would lead his party back into the abyss of the 1990s, with only six seats in the West and eight in Ontario, with no seats in either Quebec or Atlantic Canada.

The NDP, probably more than either the Liberals or the Conservatives, would head into an election with a lot of risk. On the one hand, the party has the potential to marginally increase the size of its caucus. On the other hand, the party could be reduced to almost 1/3 of its current size, and be relegated to fringe party status. With only 14 seats, the NDP would even risk losing its standing as an official party if a few seats are picked off in by-elections.

Now, the Liberals. They've had a good month, and their BCS reflects that. The silver lining seems to be that even with their WCS, they can't do worse than they did in 2008.With 34.2% of the vote, the Liberals' BCS is a minority government with 129 seats, compared to 109 for the Conservatives. This would give them the kind of minority that Paul Martin had in 2004 and Stephen Harper had in 2006. They win 21 seats in the West and North, 62 in Ontario, 21 in Quebec, and 25 in Atlantic Canada in this BCS.

In their WCS, the Liberals are reduced to 25.5% support and are kept at 77 seats, while the Conservatives are boosted to 153 seats and a near majority. Arguably, a Conservative majority would be a worse scenario than this, but I'm looking at the situation merely in terms of seats. The Liberals would win 11 in the West and North, 35 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada in this WCS.

But, as I said, this shows that the only thing the Liberals risk by heading to an election is a Conservative majority. That might be very scary for them, but the Liberals seem to have hit their floor. They do have the potential to form a minority, something we couldn't say about them only a few months ago.

Now for the Conservatives. Like the NDP, they would head into an election with a lot of risk. They could form a slim majority, or they could be relegated to the opposition benches.With 40.2% support, the Conservative BCS from September is 158 seats and a majority government. The Liberals would increase their caucus to 85 seats. The Conservatives would win 74 seats in the West and North, 60 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada. But this is a majority of only three - so it would be on a knife's edge. However, a Conservative majority government might have an easier time picking up seats in by-elections.

The Conservative WCS puts them at 29.0% support and 100 seats, or a repeat of the 2004 election. The Conservatives would form the Official Opposition, with 59 seats in the West and North, 32 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada.

Interestingly, both the Conservatives and Liberals seem to have a ceiling/floor that is separated by about 55 seats. This indicates that most of the seats that would be won or lost by either party would be because of one-on-one contests between the Liberals and Conservatives. Part of the strategy for either party seems to involve crushing the NDP, as in both the Liberal and Conservative BCS the NDP is reduced to about 20 seats. In the Conservative BCS, those NDP seats propel the party to a majority. In the Liberal scenario, significant gains also have to come at the expense of the Conservatives.

In other words, the Conservatives need to employ an arguably easier strategy of keeping the Liberals where they are and stealing from the NDP, while the Liberals have the trickier task of coaxing votes out of both the NDP and Conservatives.