CAQ gains in Forum poll

The first new poll of the final week of the campaign emerged yesterday from Forum Research via the Montreal Gazette, the first survey to be in the field and publicly released in over a week. The poll showed a minor drop in support for both the Liberals and Parti Québécois, but also a significant gain for the Coalition Avenir Québec, echoing the results of the CROP/CAQ poll leaked on Monday. But the Forum poll is, again, not without its issues.

The Liberals remain on top in the projection with 41.3% of the vote, or between 40% and 45%, assuming normal polling error. The PQ has dropped to 30.7% (or between 30% and 34%), while the CAQ has jumped to 17.8% (or between 16% and 19%). Québec Solidaire slipped to 7.7% (or between 7% and 8%).

That is a big jump for the CAQ, but it doesn't give them many more seats. They are currently projected to win just four, though their high likely seat haul is now six (and their maximum is now eight). A complete wipe out of the party is no longer considered plausible. The Liberals dropped just one seat to 64, while the PQ was unchanged at 55. The ranges tightened up, however, securing the Liberal spot as the likely winner: they should win between 60 and 70 seats at these levels of support, compared to between 52 and 57 seats for the PQ. So a minority government is still possible, though only the PLQ is likely to form it.

In addition to the Forum poll, two riding level polls were released for the ridings of Papineau in the Outaouais and Nicolet-Bécancour in the Centre-du-Québec. I'll go over them at the end of this post.

Now to the Forum poll. A few notes before we get into it. The report says that 854 Quebecers were surveyed, but if you look at the crosstabs it seems that 697 were actually surveyed instead, and that 687 of them responded to the vote intention question. That increases the margin of error to closer to 4%, rather than the reported 3%.

Also, the language numbers reported by Forum and repeated by numerous media outlets (CTV, at least, had the wherewithal to mention how odd they were) are unweighted. In other words, perhaps too many francophones in Quebec City were polled, or too many older Quebecers. Those language numbers weren't adjusted to make them reflective of the general population. So, while Forum reported that the Liberals had 39% support among francophones and the PQ 30%, what this means instead is that the Liberals had 39% support among the francophones polled by Forum. Unlike other firms, like CROP and Léger who report properly weighted results even at the sub-sample level, Forum is reporting their raw results here. 

As the numbers were unweighted, they are not necessarily reflective of the population. And since the numbers make no intuitive or mathematical sense, then we know that they are certainly not reflective of the population. The overall numbers should be weighted properly and are thus fine, but the language numbers as reported by Forum should be ignored.

Forum was last in the field on March 19, in a poll first reported by the Toronto Star. Since then, the Liberals dropped four points to 41%, the PQ dropped three points to 29%, and the CAQ increased by six points to 19%.

Considering the small sample size of this poll, only the last shift in support appears statistically significant.

Québec Solidaire was unchanged at 7%, while the Greens, Option Nationale, and other parties split the remaining 4% between them.

From what we can glean from the language numbers, it does seem that the CAQ has indeed made a jump among francophones, as suggested by the internal CROP/CAQ poll. Roughly speaking, for the provincial numbers to be what they are the PQ would need around 35% support among francophones, with the Liberals at 32% and the CAQ at 23% (give or take a point or two for each party). That is quite close to the CROP/CAQ results, but I'd prefer to see a public Léger or CROP poll before confirming that the CAQ is on the upswing among this demographic.

Regionally, the Liberals led in and around Montreal with 48%, followed by the PQ at 28% and the CAQ at 14%. That was a gain of five points for the CAQ, outside the margin of error. QS was at 7% in the region.

In Quebec City, the Liberals were ahead with 47%, followed by the CAQ at 27% and the PQ at just 17%, a drop of 10 points. QS was third with 7%.

And in the rest of Quebec, the PQ led with 35% against 32% for the Liberals (a drop of 10 points) and 21% for the CAQ (a gain of six points). QS had 8% support here.

This would suggest that the CAQ's gains among francophones came primarily from the PQ in Quebec City and the PLQ in the rurul regions of the province (which does make some sense).

Forum reported an approval/disapproval rating of 31% to 63% for Pauline Marois, virtually unchanged from March 19. Philippe Couillard's score (45% to 42%) was also generally unchanged from the previous poll, but François Legault's improved considerably. His approval rating jumped six points to 54%, while his disapproval rating fell five points to 27%. He could indeed be experiencing an uptick due to his debate performance last week.

But, again, we need to see some more polls. Forum's results align with what the CROP/CAQ poll implied, so the numbers are not unusual in that regard. Nevertheless, that their poll draws such a disproportionately Liberal-friendly francophone sample, as suggested by the raw data, puts up some red flags. On the other hand, Forum has been a bit of a leading indicator in this campaign. We'll see what the others show.

Riding polls

Now to the riding polls, which have been oddly absent from this campaign after nearly one in five ridings were individually polled in 2012.

The most interesting is from Somum Solutions for Le Courrier du Sud, polling the riding of Nicolet-Bécancour. This is a useful poll due to the departure of Jean-Martin Aussant of Option Nationale. Who fills that vacuum?

The IVR poll by Somum was conducted on March 26 and surveyed 1,908 residents. Among decided voters, it found the Liberal Denis Vallée in front with 36%, against 30% for the PQ's Jean-René Dubois and 22% for the CAQ's Donald Martel (the incumbent). The Québec Solidaire candidate had 8%, while the Option Nationale candidate replacing Aussant had just 3% - suggesting that voters in 2012 were voting for Aussant, and not ON at all.

The current projection for the riding gives a range of 37% to 42% for the PQ, 25% to 28% for the Liberals, and 22% to 26% for the CAQ. So, it will be necessary to add this poll to the projection in order to reflect the unexpected Liberal strength in the riding. This will be done for the next update.

The other riding poll was conducted by Segma Recherche for 104.7 FM, polling the very competitive (at least in 2012) riding of Papineau in the Outaouais region. It was conducted between March 28-31 and polled 624 residents.

It found the incumbent Liberal, Alexandre Iraca, well ahead with 48% to just 28% for the PQ's Jean-François Primeau. The CAQ was well behind at 13%, with QS at 9%.

The projection currently has the Liberals at 39% to 45% in the riding, against 31% to 35% for the PQ and 14% to 17% for the CAQ. Though the projected results are well within the margin of error of the riding poll, the poll will still be added to reflect the Liberals' strength, though it will have much less effect on the projection than the one in Nicolet-Bécancour.

Polling in the Quebec municipal elections

The Montreal municipal election was setting up to be a very interesting race after the turmoil of the last few years, and when the mid-campaign CROP poll showed Mélanie Joly making big gains, it seemed inevitable that there would be more surveys out to capture the changing landscape. But no, instead that mid-campaign poll which was out of the field on Oct. 15 turned out to be last poll of the campaign.

It left the results of yesterday's election really impossible to call, as Joly had momentum but Denis Coderre looked solid. In the end, Coderre won as the polls had said he would, but with only 32.1% of the vote. That was a far cry from the 39% to 41% support he was pegged to have earlier in the campaign. Joly did indeed finish second with 26.5% of the vote, up slightly from the 24% where CROP had her, while Richard Bergeron finished third with 25.6%, up from the 21% in the final CROP survey. Marcel Côté's campaign could not recover from the early setbacks, and took 12.8% of the vote, up from the 11% of the CROP poll.

The campaign was badly served by the polls in terms of presence, but they did not portray an incorrect picture of the race. As you can see, the polls did capture the drop in Côté's support and the momentum of Joly's campaign. But it gave no hint that Coderre's vote would drop so significantly.

Coderre's party won the most seats in council with 28, but Joly could not get many of her candidates elected, including herself. Her party took just three seats, while Bergeron's Projet Montréal took 20. Even the Coalition Montréal of Côté won more seats than Joly, with six. Another eight were won by smaller parties.

The three mayoral candidates had their geographic blocks, as the map above shows (the basic map was edited from the Wikipedia page on Montreal boroughs). Coderre won the eastern and northern parts of Montreal, along with LaSalle, while Joly and Bergeron split the central part of the city (Joly won some of the more anglophone parts such as Pierrefonds and NDG, while Bergeron won the more left-wing parts of the city such as the Plateau and Mercier). 

Coderre won seven boroughs in all, with Joly winning seven as well and Bergeron taking five. It was a much closer race than it seemed to would be only a few weeks ago.

Elsewhere in Quebec

How did the polls do in other parts of the province? There were some mixed results.

In Quebec City, the final poll from Léger (Oct. 18-22) gave Régis Labeaume 78% of the vote to 21% for David Lemelin. The results were 74.1% for Labeaume and 24% for Lemelin, so a good job by Léger here.

Laval was less successful, as Léger's last poll (Oct. 18-21) gave Marc Demers 36% of the vote to 24% for Claire Le Bel and 17% for Jean-Claude Gobé. Demers did win (with 44.2% of the vote), but Gobé finished second with 24.3% and Le Bel was well behind at 12.4%. Half marks for Léger in Laval.

The mid-campaign poll by Segma Recherche in Gatineau did not reflect the final results very well at all. It was taken Oct. 15-19, so there was some time before yesterday's vote, but the poll gave the incumbent, Marc Bureau, 51% support to 34% for Maxime Pedneaud-Jobin. Instead, Pedneaud-Jobin defeated Bureau with 51.6% to 37.5% of the vote.

Cible Recherche's poll in Trois-Rivières (Oct. 22-27) put Yves Lévesque in front with 41% to 33% for Sylvie Tardif and 20% for Caterine Dufresne. It was a decent estimation, but by no means perfect, as Lévesque took 49.2% to 31.2% for Tardif and 14.1% for Dufresne.

And in Lévis, Léger's mid-campaign poll (Oct. 13-16) painted a different picture than the result - but still had the winner - with Gilles Lehouillier at 42% to 22% for Antoine Dubé and Isabelle Demers apiece. Instead, Lehouillier won in a squeaker with 38.9% to 34.2% for Demers. Dubé took 16.4% of the vote.

This list is not exhaustive, and I may have missed a few municipal polls in these cities (and in other major cities) in my cursory search. But this gives a broad overview of how the polls did: quite well in some places, badly in others, and generally not close enough to the election date.

Hopefully the mayoral campaign in Toronto will be better served in terms of both quantity and quality of the polls. If the 2010 campaign is any indication, as well as the circus that is Rob Ford's tenure, we should at least be assured of the former. 

PQ on verge of losing majority

Polls from Forum Research for The National Post and CROP for La Presse have been added to the projection. Together, they suggest that the Parti Québécois's quest for a majority is on a knife's edge, and that the role of the Official Opposition is still very much up for grabs.

The projection awards the Parti Québécois 33.7% support, compared to 28.1% for the Liberals and 26% for the Coalition Avenir Québec. In fourth is Québec Solidaire, at their highest point in the campaign with 7.8% support.

This would deliver 64 seats to the PQ, 33 to the Liberals, 26 to the CAQ, and two to Québec Solidaire. As 63 seats are needed for a majority government, the PQ is really on the edge. If the projection is off by two seats, which would be a great result, it would mean the difference between minority and majority.

The ranges show, however, that the PQ is the only party in the running for government. They could win between 54 and 73 seats, straddling the majority line almost exactly. The Liberals, with between 27 and 43 seats, are well placed to form the Official Opposition (and they can thank Montreal for that), but the CAQ could also take on the job with between 19 and 32 seats.

Québec Solidaire, with between one and two seats, and Option Nationale, with potentially one seat, could hold the balance of power.

The CAQ has been making gains in central Quebec and the suburbs around Montreal, putting a lot of pressure on the Parti Québécois. They are doing very well in Quebec City but are not strong enough in other parts of the province to have a shot at forming government. The Liberals, with their solid base of support in Montreal and the Outaouais (22 of their 33 seats), have a head-start on the CAQ.

The turnout adjustment benefits the PQ and the Liberals only slightly in terms of seats. Without the adjustment, the poll averages alone would still deliver 32 seats to the Liberals and 61 to the Parti Québécois. That means a minority, but with the two seats from Québec Solidaire the PQ could make it work. The CAQ, with 30 seats, still ends up in third place even with a second place finish in the popular vote.

The unexpected CROP poll of this morning shows very little change from their last poll of Aug. 24-26. The PQ is down one point to 32% while the CAQ and PLQ are steady at 28% and 26%, respectively. With a two point gain, Québec Solidaire is now at 9%.

All of these shifts are within the margin of error, however, suggesting that things are now solidifying. The CAQ needs to continue its momentum in order to have a shot, but that does not seem to be in the cards for them.

But it is worth noting that while the shifts in support are statistically insignificant, the lead the PQ holds over the CAQ is as well (just). We also can't say with absolute certainty that the CAQ is ahead of the Liberals (though we can say that the PQ is). It makes for a potentially interesting finish on Tuesday night.

Forum fell into line with everyone else after their stand-out poll from last week, but the firm still seems to be showing better numbers for the Liberals. Perhaps the IVR method overcomes a "shy Tory" factor for the PLQ. We will find out on election night.

Since that last poll of Aug. 20, the PQ has gained four points and leads with 33%, followed by the Liberals at 28% (-7), the CAQ at 27% (+3), and Québec Solidaire at 8% (-1).

Together, these two polls tell a similar story of a close three-way race. The PQ has the advantage but neither the CAQ nor the PLQ are taking on runner-up status. The CAQ is ahead in Quebec City and the PQ elsewhere, while QS is doing better than they were before the debates.

We will have to wait and see what Léger Marketing says with their final poll, expected this weekend.

Riding polls

A large amount of riding polls were released in the last few days, and all have been added to the projection. Let's go through them quickly.

A poll for Le Soleil by Segma in Taschereau found Agnès Maltais of the PQ well ahead of Clément Gignac of the Liberals, with 41% to 19%. QS and the CAQ tied for third with 16% apiece. The projection also showed Maltais as the likely winner.

Another Segma poll for Le Voix de l'Est in Brome-Missisquoi found a close three-way race. Benoit Legault of the CAQ came out ahead with 32% to Richard Leclerc's 31%. The incumbent Liberal, Pierre Paradis, was in third with 27%. The projection also shows a close three-way race, but gives Paradis the advantage.

A poll in Papineau by Segma for Le Droit put Jean-François Primeau of the PQ ahead with 36%, followed at length by Alexandre Iraca of the Liberals with 27%. It confirmed the projection's prediction that Papineau would go PQ, but it did not give Primeau such a large lead in the formally safe Liberal riding.

Three polls by Forum Research for the Stantead Journal showed close races in Estrie: 36% for the Liberals to 35% for the PQ in Orford, 39% for the PQ to 37% for the Liberals in Saint-François, and 41% for Serge Cardin of the PQ to 39% for Jean Charest in Sherbrooke. That last one is of some interest, considering the leads that Segma has given Cardin in two polls.

Moving on to the Gaspésie, two polls by Segma agreed with 308 that the PQ could win Bonaventure and Gaspé, but the poll for Graffici put the Liberals much further behind in the latter: 57% for Gaétan Lelièvre in Gaspé to 20% for the incumbent Georges Mamelonet. It showed a closer race in Bonaventure, with 41% for Sylvain Roy of the PQ to 34% for Damien Arsenault of the PLQ.

Another poll in Saint-François, this time by Segma for La Tribune, gave the PQ's Réjean Hébert a 20 point lead over Nathalie Goguen, with 46% to 26%. That is much more in line with what the projection had.

And finally, five polls this morning by Segma for Le Quotidien in Dubuc, Chicoutimi, Jonquière, Roberval, and Lac-Saint-Jean confirmed that the PQ is poised to sweep the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean. Interestingly, however, in all of the ridings except Roberval the CAQ has moved into second, ahead of the Liberals. On average, the CAQ gained six points in these ridings since Segma's last poll of the region between Aug. 11-16. Both the PQ and the Liberals have lost three points. This is a strong indication of how the Liberals are suffering in francophone Quebec, but also how the PQ is relatively stagnant. Remember that the PQ is likely to win the election on Tuesday with less of the vote than they took in their 2008 defeat.

PQ still in majority territory, but less secure

A new poll by CROP for La Presse confirmed the results of the weekend's Léger Marketing poll to within a percentage point, giving the Parti Québécois a five-point lead over the (now) second place Coalition Avenir Québec. Though CROP believes the numbers would deliver the PQ a minority government, ThreeHundredEight still has Pauline Marois on track for a majority.

The changes from the last projection have been minimal, with the PQ and Liberals dropping one seat each to the benefit of the CAQ and Québec Solidaire. The Parti Québécois leads with a projected 34.1% support, followed by the Liberals at 28.5% and the CAQ at 25.8%.

Québec Solidaire (6.7%), Option Nationale (2.1%), and the Greens (1.8%) round-out the top six.

It is worth noting that though the projection gives the Liberals a second place finish, the unadjusted poll average now puts the CAQ narrowly ahead with 27.6% to 27.3% in voting intentions.

In terms of seats, the projection now awards the PQ 66, three more than is needed for a majority government. The Liberals take 32 and the CAQ take 25, with two seats going to Québec Solidaire.

The ranges have widened somewhat, however. The PQ could win between 48 and 79 seats, suggesting that a minority government is still very much a possibility. The Liberals could win between 24 and 52 seats, theoretically making a PLQ minority possible. But that is an extraordinarily unlikely scenario of Albertan proportions.

They should be more concerned with the CAQ, who has a range of between 13 and 34 seats. Their upper range is above the forecasted result for the Liberals. Considering the way the campaign is going (Liberals sliding, CAQ gaining), the race is truly on for the role of the Official Opposition.

Québec Solidaire should win one or two seats, while Jean-Martin Aussant can still hope to win his seat of Nicolet-Bécancour.

There have not been any major shifts in support as the CROP poll was very similar to the recent numbers by Léger and Segma Recherche. The Liberals did slip slightly on the island of Montreal and among non-francophones, but it did not cost them a seat. Their loss was in Quebec City, where they were down slightly and the PQ was up by even less. The CAQ made gains in the suburbs of Montreal, however, and are poised to start picking off PQ seats if things continue in this fashion.

CROP was last in the field Aug. 12-14, and since then there have been no statistically significant shifts in support. That does not mean that nothing has happened, as the confirmation of a third place finish for the Liberals does tell us something. 

The PQ was down one point to 33% while the CAQ was up three to 28%. The Liberals were down one to 26%, while Québec Solidaire was unchanged at 7%.

The lead the PQ holds is statistically significant (though just barely), while they also hold a noteworthy lead among francophones. Their support has dropped, however, by three points to 36%. The CAQ is up four to 30% among francophones, while the Liberals are down two to 19%.

The Liberals continue to lead among non-francophones with 57%, unchanged from CROP's last poll. The CAQ, at 20%, is also steady.

The PQ has the edge in the Montreal suburbs and in the regions of Quebec, while the CAQ is ahead in Quebec City. The Liberals are in front on the island of Montreal. The PQ saw negligible growth in the two regions where they have the advantage, but took losses in Quebec City and the island of Montreal. The CAQ was up across the board (except in Montreal), while the Liberals were down across the board (again, except in Montreal). The polls are unanimous on this question - despite their sagging support, Jean Charest's Liberals are still doing well on the island.

Riding polls

Two riding polls were also added to the projection. A poll by Cible Recherche for TVA in Trois-Rivières suggests that Djemila Benhabib of the PQ is in a strong position with 38%. Danielle St-Amand, the incumbent Liberal MNA, trails with 29%. The CAQ is further behind with 21% support. This poll echoes the one done by Segma early in the campaign, and is in opposition to the small-sample poll by Baromètre that gave the Liberals a wide lead. The projection has had the PQ in front for some time.

The other poll was in Hull. Conducted for Le Droit, the Segma poll found the Liberal incumbent Maryse Gaudreault leading with 39%. The PQ's Gilles Aubé trails with 30%, while Québec Solidaire placed third with 14%. The CAQ was in fourth with 12%. Though the projection had a slightly closer race, this is generally in line with what the model had. It also seems to contradict some of what Jean-Marc Léger has said about the Outaouais region, which he has called a three-way race. The ADQ has never been a factor in the Outaouais, and it does not seem like the CAQ is making inroads either.

A bevy of riding polls were released this morning for Taschereau, Brome-Missisquoi, Papineau, Orford, Saint-François, and Sherbrooke but they have yet to be added to the model. I will take a look at them in detail in the next update.

PQ in precarious majority position as CAQ moves up

On Saturday, Le Journal de Montréal released the latest set of numbers from Léger Marketing suggesting that the Parti Québécois was still comfortably in the lead. More significantly, however, the poll indicated that the Coalition Avenier Québec has moved into second, ahead of the governing Liberals. A poll this morning for Le Soleil by Segma Recherche also points to Liberal woes, in this case in Quebec City. But a few riding polls released over the last three days suggest that the Liberals do still have some staying power.

The projection currently awards the Parti Québécois 34% support, with the Liberals trailing at 29.4% and the CAQ at 25.6%. Québec Solidaire, with 6.8% support, is well behind the three frontrunners.

The PQ is projected to win 67 seats, giving them four more than the bare minimum needed for a majority government. With 33 seats, the Liberals would form the Official Opposition while the CAQ would claim 24 seats and QS one.

But this order of finish is far from certain. If an election were held today, the PQ could emerge with a minority or a majority, as the range puts them between 52 and 78 seats. Though the PQ's minimum ties with the Liberals' maximum, it is extremely unlikely that the two parties would end up equal in seats.

The Liberals should be more concerned with not finishing third, as the range puts them between 26 and 52 seats. That means they overlap with the CAQ's 12-32 seat range, and with François Legault claiming a tiny bit of positive momentum to Jean Charest's negative trendlines, the odds are good that the CAQ could be in second place by the time the election rolls around.

Regionally, the Parti Québécois is leading in the Montreal suburbs (39.8% to the CAQ's 28.7% and the Liberals' 20.9%) and in the eastern (43.9% to 25.7% for the PLQ) and western (38.8% to 25.8% for the Liberals and 24.2% for the CAQ) parts of the province.

The Liberals only lead on the island of Montreal, though it is the widest lead in any region in Quebec. The Liberals have 46.2% support in the projection on the island, compared to 26.1% for the PQ and 13.6% for the CAQ.

Legault's party, on the other hand, claims two leads. He is ahead in Quebec City with 36.5% support, trailed at length by the Liberals at 28.4% and the PQ at 25.1%. And in central Quebec, the CAQ is narrowly ahead with 33.2% to the PQ's 31% and the PLQ's 26.1%. It is a close three-way race, but the Liberals get the worst of it: the PQ is projected to win 10 seats in the region, with the CAQ winning nine and the Liberals only one.

The Léger poll from Saturday was eagerly awaited, as the only available set of numbers came in the form of the widely lampooned Forum Research poll.

Rather than a big swing in favour of one party or another, Léger found things to be relatively stable since their poll of Aug. 13-16: the PQ unchanged at 33%, the CAQ up one to 28%, and the Liberals down one to 27%.

Though the gap between the Liberals and the CAQ is well within the margin of error, making it impossible to claim with any certainty that the Liberals are in fact in third place, the psychological effect of that positioning could be catastrophic. If Legault and the CAQ appear to be the only real bulwark to the Parti Québécois, the Liberals could shed federalist support over the next few days.

While the gap between second and third was statistically insignificant, that between the PQ and the CAQ was not. The PQ also holds a significant lead among francophones with 38% (-2) to 31% (+2). The Liberals' dominance among non-francophones remains unchallenged, however, with 67% support. The CAQ is down five points to 15% among this electorate.

Though most movement was within the margin of error, some was noteworthy. Québec Solidaire was up three points in the Montreal region to 9%, suggesting the performance of Françoise David in last Sunday's debate helped her party's fortunes. The CAQ was up eight big points in Quebec City to 46%, while the Liberals were up 11 on the island of Montreal to 45%. They were down considerably in the suburbs of Montreal, however, particularly north of the city.

Segma's poll of Quebec City provides a little bit of contrast with Léger's numbers, though the two were taken over slightly different days (Aug. 23-24 for Léger, Aug. 22-25 for Segma).

While Léger found the CAQ with 46% support and a lead of 22 points, Segma pegged the party at 34%, five points up on the Liberals.

They both show a statistically significant CAQ lead in the Capitale-Nationale, and the results for the PLQ and PQ are within the margin of error of each poll. But it is impossible to reconcile the two results for the CAQ. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, but one or both of these polls is likely a little off.

Segma broke the results into the Rive-Nord (generally Quebec City itself) and the Rive-Sud (Lévis and surroundings), finding the CAQ in the lead in both areas. The area around Lévis was the last stronghold of the federal Conservatives in the last federal election, likely explaining the better CAQ results there. The PQ is much more competitive in Quebec City itself (and the projection accordingly has them in the running for four seats in the region, though one is more likely) but generally the race in and around the capital is between the CAQ and the PLQ.

Riding polls

There are pockets of stronger support for each party. Segma released two riding polls, taken Aug. 21-25 and using a hybrid IVR/live-caller method. In Lévis, Christian Dubé of the CAQ (future Finance Minister of a CAQ government, apparently) is in strong position with 41%, compared to 27% for the Liberal incumbent Gilles Lehouillier. The PQ trails with 18% and Québec Solidaire with 10% (a good result).

In Louis-Hébert, Sam Hamad of the Liberals has a statistically insignificant lead over the CAQ's Michel Hamel with 35% support to 30%, with the PQ's Rosette Côté not far behind at 26%.

The projection was very close for these two ridings, with Lévis projected at 42% CAQ to 27% for the Liberals and 21% for the PQ, before adding Segma's numbers to the model. In Louis-Hébert, the projection had 35% PLQ, 32% CAQ, and 26% PQ.

Two riding polls were also released over the weekend in smaller local newspapers. A poll by Cara-Télécom for La Nouvelle Union taken Aug. 21 found Claude Bachand of the Liberals to have 39.8% support in Arthabaska, compared to 32.6% for the CAQ's Sylvie Roy and 18.1% for the PQ candidate. With a large margin of error, Bachand is not out of the woods.

And a poll by Baromètre of Trois-Rivières put Danielle St-Amand back in front with 37.7% compared to 29.8% for the PQ's Djemila Benhabib and 26% for the CAQ. This is in contrast to a Segma poll from earlier in the campaign that gave the PQ a six-point lead and put the CAQ well out of the race. Again, the sample is small here so the lead St-Amand holds is not important.

Nevertheless, these two polls show that the Liberals do have the ability to hold on to ridings where they are the incumbent. Whether these numbers will hold is another thing entirely, and in consideration of the small sample sizes we can only say that the Liberals are not out of the running in these two ridings. That this is good news for the Liberals speaks to the predicament they are in.

Charest continues to trail in Sherbrooke

Over the last few years, elections in Quebec have featured riding-level polling to a degree that is rarely seen in any other jurisdiction in Canada. About one-third of ridings in Quebec were individually polled in the 2011 federal election, compared to a handful in the rest of the country. Riding polls in the 2008 provincial election were also common. Ten ridings have been polled so far in this campaign.

The riding poll in Sherbrooke released in the second week of the campaign captured the most attention, as it put Jean Charest behind the PQ's Serge Cardin by 15 points. It certainly put a damper on the Liberal campaign, and is likely one of the reasons why Charest has visited his riding several times over the last few weeks. Those visits do not seem to have helped, as Segma Recherche was back in the field this week and found that Charest still trails by double-digits.

Segma was last in the field in Sherbrooke on August 6-8, and since then there has been very little change in the voting intentions of people in the riding.

Cardin is down one point to 45% while Charest is up two to 33%, insignificant amounts of change in a poll with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%. Despite the relatively high margin of error, however, Serge Cardin's lead is statistically significant.

The CAQ is down one point to 10% in the riding, while Québec Solidaire is up one point to 7%. Option Nationale is up one to 3% and the Greens are unchanged at 2%, while the Parti indépendantiste's candidate sits at 1% support.

Riding polls have been off before, but this is a rather considerable gap between Serge Cardin and Jean Charest. The premier's chances are worsened by the fact that Segma has demonstrated consistent results over two polls. It could very well be that voters in Sherbrooke fully intend to oust Charest from office themselves, regardless of what happens in the rest of the province.

Segma Recherche also polled the riding of Saint-Maurice for Le Nouvelliste, a riding somewhat up for grabs due to the retirement of the incumbent PQ MNA. Nevertheless, Luc Trudel of the Parti Québécois is holding firm with 42%, virtually unchanged from the 43% the PQ took in 2008.

The Liberal candidate, Robert Pilotte, has 26% support (down 12 points from the last election) while Pierre Giguère of the CAQ is at 22% (the ADQ took 15% in 2008).

They are followed at length by Québec Solidaire (5%), and Option Nationale (2%). An independent candidate and the Parti unité nationale share 3% support.

The poll in Saint-Maurice is not surprising, as the PQ is the incumbent party and they are doing much better than the Liberals among francophones. 

But do these two polls suggest that the Forum poll from earlier this week might have been wrong-headed?

The current projection, which incorporates the results of the Forum poll, gives the PQ 38% in Sherbrooke with the Liberals trailing at 35%. It places Québec Solidaire at 12% and the CAQ at 10%. The current projection in Saint-Maurice is 39% for the PQ, 33% for the PLQ, and 19% for the CAQ.

The projection, then, over-estimates Liberal support and under-estimates support for the PQ. If we remove Forum's poll from the equation entirely, the projection turns out to be much closer for both ridings. In Sherbrooke, it would instead be 43% PQ, 30% PLQ, 10% CAQ, and 7% QS. In Saint-Maurice, it would be 43% PQ, 28% PLQ, and 19% CAQ.

In other words, these two Segma riding polls seem to suggest that the surge in Liberal support recorded by Forum Research did not take place - or that it dissipated over the course of the three one-on-one debates. The projection for individual ridings has matched up to the results of Segma's polling quite well so far in this campaign. It could be coincidental that they do not match up so closely this time around, or it could be that the Forum poll was indeed off the mark. Undoubtedly, Léger Marketing and CROP will report in the next few days and clear the matter up. 

Tight race in Nicolet-Bécancour and Trois-Rivières

The debates are in full swing and the effects won't be reflected in polls until a couple of days after tomorrow night's final contest between Pauline Marois and François Legault, but a few riding polls have been released over the last few days for two interesting ridings and the region of Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean.

Trois-Rivières is a particularly notable riding because of the recent controversy over the PQ's policy on the crucifix in the National Assembly and Saguenay mayor Jean Tremblay's comments about the Parti Québécois candidate. Djemila Benhabib, an author who lived in the Outaouais region and the target of Tremblay's comments, was also parachuted into the riding.

Nevertheless, 36% of voters in the riding say they will support her (80% saying that Tremblay's comments have no influence on their vote). That gives her a six-point lead over Danielle St-Amand, the incumbent Liberal MNA. The CAQ trails with 18% while Québec Solidaire is further behind with 8%.

The projection currently has the PQ with 38% of the vote in the riding to 30% for the Liberals and 22% for the CAQ. While this shows the model is working well, it is also interesting that despite all of the local issues and controversies the riding is behaving generally as expected.

Nicolet-Bécancour was a bit of a mystery, though. The riding is where Jean-Martin Aussant, leader of Option Nationale and former PQ MNA, is running. The presence of an incumbent MNA from a new fringe party makes the riding very difficult to predict. How much of the PQ's vote would swing over to ON?

The result is a lead for the CAQ's Donald Martel with 30.6% of the vote, narrowly edging out Aussant's 27.7%. The PQ trails in third with 25.4% while the Liberals are well behind with 16.3%.

The projection currently has the CAQ at 34%, the Liberals at 25%, the PQ at 22%, and ON at 18%, within the margin of error of the poll for the CAQ and PQ, while the ranges were wide enough to envision the poll's result for Aussant. That it pegged the CAQ as leading in the riding is a good sign, but figuring out the proportion of the vote that Aussant would be able to hold on to was always going to be difficult, as the model can only base itself on previous cases in other elections. The poll will be incorporated into the projection with the next update and will put Aussant within range of winning.

A huge proportion of respondents (42%) were undecided, so the race in Nicolet-Bécancour could go any which way. But it is interesting that Aussant, first elected under the PQ banner in 2008, has been able to hold on to so much of his vote. It puts him in a very good position - unless François Legault manages to increase his party's support significantly province-wide.

Lastly, we have (another) series of riding polls for the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, this time by Trigone. I am not familiar with this firm.

Trigone was in the field on most of the days that Segma was and the results match up very closely, particularly considering the margins of error applicable to sample sizes of between 176 and 215 people per riding (Segma polled about 600 people per riding).

The poll shows the PQ with a very wide lead across the board, including Dubuc where the Liberals are the incumbent, and 60% support in the region as a whole. This backs up the results of Segma and suggests that Léger's small-sample regional result (which showed a much closer race, though still a PQ lead) was the odd-man out.

All of these polls are pre-debate, so things could change dramatically over the next few days. But these results certainly don't bode well for the Liberals' chances in francophone Quebec.

CAQ gains put PQ majority in question

Le Journal de Montréal released the details of a monster Léger Marketing survey at midnight to great anticipation, though the results were less shocking than they were in-depth. But they do show that the Coalition Avenir Québec is continuing to make modest, but steady, gains. Now that they are pushing the Liberals for second place, they are also starting to push the Parti Québécois out of some seats.

But the PQ is still in the lead, though the party slipped one point to 35% in the projection. They are also down five seats to 65, putting them just over the bar of the 63 seats needed to form a majority government.

The Liberal slide continues, as they have dropped 1.2 points to 29.9%. Because of better numbers in and around Montreal, however, the party has managed to increase its seat haul by one to 38.

The CAQ is up 1.4 points to 24.6% and five seats to 21, while Québec Solidaire is down 0.2 points and one seat to 5.7% and Amir Khadir.

Option Nationale is up 1.2 points to 2.1%, putting them ahead of the Greens. They are down 0.2 points to 1.6%.

The seat ranges have moved significantly, with the Parti Québécois capable of winning between 53 and 79 seats. As the Liberal range has dropped to between 24 and 51 seats, a Liberal plurality is no longer considered possible. Instead, they are now threatened by the CAQ for the role of Official Opposition, as the party could win between 14 and 32 seats. That is a bit of an overlap, and with the CAQ having the momentum and running much closer in the straight poll average, the odds are turning against the Liberals.

Québec Solidaire dropped significantly on the island of Montreal, falling 3.9 points to only 8.1%. That puts them only a few ticks above their 2008 performance, and that is why the party is only projected to win one seat, and as few as none. The Liberals dropped 2.1 points to 36.4% and the PQ two points to 29.1%, while the CAQ made a big five point gain. They now sit at 18.7% and actually have three seats in range. That is primarily due to the divergent poll results increasing the volatility on the island, but it is something to keep an eye on.

In the suburbs around Montreal, the PQ dropped two points to 36.4% and six seats. The lion's share of the gains went to the Liberals, up 1.3 points to 28.7% and four seats. The CAQ was also up, gaining a point to reach 26.6%.

Quebec City saw a fair amount of change, as the Léger poll gave the CAQ a wide lead, rather than the Liberal lead that CROP identified. As a result, the CAQ picked up 3.6 points to reach 34.1%, and is up three seats to six. The Liberals dropped 5.6 points to 29.6% and five seats to only three, opening an opportunity for the PQ. The party only increased its support by 0.4 points to 26.4%, but gained a seat in the process.

In central Quebec, the PQ continues to lead with 33.6% (-0.3) but the Liberals fell 0.3 points to 28.4%, costing them one seat. The CAQ won it despite dropping 1.7 points to 27.5%. Notable is the 3.3-point gain by Option Nationale in the region. They currently have 4% support, just behind Québec Solidaire. It is no coincidence that their best region of the province is also where Jean-Martin Aussant is running.

And in western Quebec, the CAQ picked up 3.6 points and one seat. They are still in third at 25.2%, but the gap has narrowed with the Liberals as they were down 2.8 points to 26.4%. The PQ, at 38.3%, still leads in the region.

Note that the projection model gives the Liberals (and the PQ) an organisational/turnout bonus, and this is why the party is still in second place in the Montreal suburbs and in eastern, central, and western Quebec. If we go just by the polls, however, the Liberals are in third in those regions.

Léger was last in the field on Aug. 6-8, and since then the PQ has gained one point and has extended its lead over the Liberals. The PQ sits at 33%, while the PLQ has dropped three points to only 28%. At 27%, the CAQ is steady.

Québec Solidaire is also unchanged at 6%, while Option Nationale is up one point to 3%, their best polling result on record. The Greens were unchanged at 2%.

Only the Liberals' three-point drop appears to be statistically significant. Their drop of 19 points among non-francophones is also notable, as they are now at 62%. The CAQ made a big 11-point gain to 20%, the second consecutive poll to give the party this level of support among these voters. It could be a coincidence, or it could be that the CAQ's attempts to woo the anglophone electorate are paying off.

The CAQ's increase on the island of Montreal (from 14% to 22%) is accordingly outside the margin of error, while Québec Solidaire's drop of five points to only 7% is also more than a wobble. It is quite unusual for QS to be polling so low in Montreal, their one region of concentrated support. 

Riding polls

Segma Recherche completed its tour of the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region for Le Quotidien today. In Roberval, Segma gives the PQ a wide lead with 53% to 26% for the Liberals. The CAQ, at 14%, trail in third by some distance. In Jonquière, the PQ is also very secure with 51% support to 20% for the Liberals and 17% for the CAQ. Both of these results were very close to what the projection had, but again we're seeing the Liberals being slightly over-estimated at the expense of the CAQ. 

But there is a bit of a variation between the results from Léger's poll (in the field Aug. 13-16) for the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean and the combined results of Segma's polling (the five surveys spanned Aug. 11-16 altogether). Léger gives the PQ the lead with 38%, but puts the CAQ at 26% and the Liberals at 22%. By contrast, the average of Segma's five riding polls gives the PQ 52% to 23% for the Liberals and only 17% for the CAQ.

Granted, Léger polled only 262 people in the region while Segma's five polls surveyed almost 3,000, so the margin of error can account for much of the discrepancy. Segma's more in-depth polling also has to be given the benefit of the doubt. But it does suggest that the PQ's lead in the area might not be as solid as Segma has found it to be. And if that is the case in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, could it be the case elsewhere?

Liberals drop as PQ majority increases

A new poll by CROP for La Presse today showed that the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec are generally where other pollsters have recently pegged them to be. But with a drop in support in Montreal, the Liberals have taken a hit.

The Parti Québécois has held steady, with a tiny 0.1 point drop to 36% in the projection. The Liberals, however, are down 1.2 points to 31.1%. The result is a net five seats swinging from the Liberals to the PQ, giving the PQ 70 seats to 37 for the Liberals.

The CAQ is unchanged at 23.2% and 16 seats, while Québec Solidaire is up 0.3 points to 5.9%. They are still projected to win two seats.

The Greens are up 0.2 points to 1.8% and Option Nationale is up 0.4 points to 0.9%.

The PQ's ranges have been nudged upwards, further decreasing the chances of a Liberal plurality. With between 34.5% and 37.5% support, the PQ can win between 51 and 78 seats. The Liberals, with between 28.6% and 33.6% support, can only win between 28 and 54 seats.

The CAQ appears to be stuck in third, with between 20.2% and 26.2% support and between 10 and 27 seats. At the very least, however, François Legault is sure to see his party's representation in the National Assembly grow.

The Liberals slipped most dramatically on the island of Montreal and among non-francophone voters. They are down 3.8 points on the island to 38.5%, decreasing their seat haul by three to 17. The PQ is up 0.9 points to 31.1% and three seats to nine, while the CAQ has moved back into third place. They jumped three points to 13.7%, putting them narrowly ahead of Québec Solidaire, which sits at 12% support.

Among non-francophones, who mostly live on the island of Montreal, the Liberals are down 3.5 points to 66.4%. The CAQ increased their support among this electorate by 2.8 points to 12.7%. They are still a long ways from challenging the Liberals among the anglophone population, but this may be the first sign that the CAQ's efforts are paying off.

The Parti Québécois made its two other seat gains in the Montreal suburbs, thanks to a 0.9-point drop by the Liberals to only 27.4%. The PQ did slip 0.4 points to 38.4%, however. The CAQ was also down, falling 0.2 points to 25.6%. But they are ahead of the Liberals in the region in the unadjusted poll average.

The Liberals are comfortably in front in Quebec City, however, as the CAQ dropped 3.1 points to 30.5%. The Liberals were down 0.9 points to 35.2%, while the PQ was up 2.7 points to 26%.

CROP was last in the field Aug. 4-8, and since then the PQ has picked up two points to lead with 34%. The Liberals were down two points to 27% while the CAQ was up four points to 25%, a statistically significant increase.

Québec Solidaire slid one point to 7%, while the Greens and Option Nationale were unchanged at 3% and 2%, respectively.

The Parti Québécois holds the lead among francophones (where there have been no significant shifts in support) and in and around Montreal, where they have 33% support to 28% for the Liberals. There is a three-way race in Quebec City in CROP's polling, and the PQ has the advantage in the rest of Quebec with 36% to the CAQ's 26%.

The Liberals dropped two points to 57% among non-francophones, but they still hold a wide lead. The CAQ picked up 12 points to hit 20%. The margin of error is quite large due to the sample being so small, but the increase in support for the CAQ among this electorate does not appear to be noise.

Riding polls

Segma Recherche and Le Quotidien continue to treat us to riding polls for the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, this time looking at Dubuc. This riding is actually an interesting one, as it is one of the closer races in the region and is a riding that should swing from the Liberals to the PQ. The poll gives the PQ 44% to the Liberals' 32% and the CAQ's 18%, virtually identical to what the projection had for the riding yesterday. But the projection was slightly under-estimating CAQ support in Dubuc, so the poll was added. Le Quotidien is supposed to publish the results of polling in Roberval and Jonquière tomorrow. The projection gives both of these ridings to the Parti Québécois by a wide margin.

PQ moves into majority territory

One province-wide poll and three riding polls have been released since the last update, and for the first time in the campaign they put the Parti Québécois in a position to form a slim majority government.

With a gain of 1.6 points, the Parti Québécois is now projected to take 36.1% of the vote, giving them 65 seats. That is a gain of seven since the last update and just enough to put them over the barrier of 63 seats that is needed for a majority government.

The Liberals have suffered most at the hands of the PQ, slipping five seats to 42 and 0.4 points to 32.3%. The Coalition Avenir Québec made a small gain in the popular vote, up 0.5 points to 23.2%, but has lost two seats. They are now projected to win 16.

Québec Solidaire is down 0.2 points to 5.6% and remains at two seats. The Greens are down 0.4 points to 1.6% while Option Nationale is down 0.5 points to 0.5%.

The polls have tightened up considerably throughout Quebec, shrinking the projection ranges as well. This has had an important effect on the potential results, as the CAQ's high range no longer overlaps with the low ranges of the PQ and Liberals. The PQ is now projected to win between 50 and 75 seats, putting them in a very good position to come out ahead. The Liberals are projected to win between 30 and 54 seats, making a Liberal plurality highly unlikely. And with between 10 and 28 seats, the CAQ forming the Official Opposition, or even heading up a weak minority government, is out of the question.

The Parti Québécois has made gains in most parts of the province, but primarily in and around Montreal. On the island there have been no changes in seats, but the PQ is up three points to 30.2%. That still puts them well behind the Liberals, who lead with 42.3% (+0.7) in the projection, but the PQ is currently at their floor in terms of seats. They have room to grow, while the Liberals are at the high end of their capabilities. Québec Solidaire has moved back into third on the island, with a 0.3-point gain to hit 11.9%.

In the suburbs off of the island of Montreal, the PQ is up 2.9 points in the projection to 38.8%, awarding them four new seats. The Liberals are down 0.7 points and two seats to 28.3%, while the CAQ dropped 2.5 points to 25.8%, and two seats to only four.

The PQ also made gains at both ends of the province, picking up 2.8 points in western Quebec and 3.2 points in eastern Quebec, in all giving them three more seats. In eastern Quebec, the PQ leads with 46.8% and is trailed by the Liberals at 29.3% (-2.8). The Liberals are down three seats, two of them going to the PQ and one to the CAQ, which is up 1.3 points to 18.1% in the region.

In western Quebec, the PQ leads with 41.9% and is trailed by the Liberals at 28.1% (-1.8) and the CAQ at 21.8% (-1.8).

The Liberals did improve their standing in Quebec City, however. They are up three points to 36.1%, widening the gap between them and the CAQ. François Legault's party is up 0.8 points to 33.6%, but the Liberal gain has given them an extra seat. They are projected to win six to the CAQ's four and the PQ's one (they slipped 1.2 points to 23.3%).

The CAQ also saw their fortunes improve in central Quebec, as the party picked up 3.7 points to hit 29% and six seats, a gain of one. The Liberals dropped 0.5 points to 29.4%, giving them a very narrow edge over the CAQ, but they also dropped one seat to only two. At 34.6%, the PQ leads (though they dropped 0.6 points).

Worrisome for the Liberals is that they have fallen to third in the polls in certain regions. The projection adjusts polling results slightly, but in terms of the unadjusted average the PLQ now trails the CAQ for second place in central Quebec and the Montreal suburbs, and has fallen from first to second in Quebec City. The superior electoral machinery of the Liberals, however, should be able to make the difference.

Forum's latest poll for The National Post generally shows the status quo from the polling firm's perspective, as no party has seen its support shift to a statistically significant degree. The PQ has widened their lead (and it is a lead just outside the margin of error) to four points, picking up one point to hit 35% while the Liberals dropped one to 31%. The CAQ slipped one point to 25%, while Québec Solidaire was steady at 6%.

None of the regional variations appear to be important, suggesting that voting intentions in the province are generally solid. The PQ holds a statistically significant lead on the south shore and among francophones, however, while the Liberals are well ahead among non-francophones.

Even the approval/disapproval ratings of the leaders has not shifted more than a wink. If anything has occurred, however, it is that every leader has seen their disapproval ratings move up a tick or two.

Forum includes a question on whether voters are enthusiastic or not to cast their ballot, a possible proxy for people who are likely to vote. There isn't a huge difference in voter enthusiasm between the parties, but the PQ does have the edge. If we look at the "very enthusiastic" totals, we get a vote share of 39% for the PQ, 31% for the Liberals, and 22% for the CAQ.

Three riding polls have also been released over the last week, all by Segma Recherche. The first, for the riding of Granby, found the CAQ at 49% to 24% for the PQ and 16% for the Liberals. This was very close to the projection at the time, which gave the CAQ 49% to 23% for the PQ and Liberals.

Two polls today in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region found the PQ in good standing, as the projection did. The PQ scored 59% in Lac-Saint-Jean and 53% in Chicoutimi, and were trailed by the Liberals and CAQ in a close tie for second. The Liberals had 21% in Chicoutimi and 17% in Lac-Saint-Jean, while the CAQ had 19% and 18%, respectively. The projection did give the PQ a wide margin of victory, but interestingly it was over-estimating Liberal support, mostly to the detriment of the CAQ.

The Liberals were also over-estimated in Granby and Sherbrooke. This leads to two questions: is the projection over-estimating Liberal support? Or, are polls under-estimating their vote? If the projection is over-estimating the Liberals, this could have one of two consequences. On the one hand, it may be over-estimating the Liberal ability to win seats. On the other hand, it may be under-estimating Liberal support where they have incumbents. This occurred in the Alberta election, where the Liberal vote tanked disproportionately in ridings where they did not have an incumbent, and held firm in ridings where they did. There was no sign of that in the riding poll for Sherbrooke, though.

But if the polls are under-estimating Liberal support we could see them be much stronger than expected on election night. This is what the projection model assumes with its adjustment mechanism for turnout, but there is always the possibility that the incumbency advantage will be especially strong in this election.

PQ struggling in Saguenay, Liberals in Estrie?

Polls from two regions of Quebec suggest that voters are swinging every which way in the run-up to the rumoured September provincial election. While the Parti Québécois could be struggling in their heartland of the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, the Liberals appear to have taken a big step backwards in Estrie (also known as the Cantons-de-l'Est or Eastern Townships).

For a look at how leaders have fared in past Quebec elections based on their levels of experience, check out my article for The Globe and Mail here.

The poll by Segma Recherche is somewhat old, having been conducted between Jun. 4-6. But the results are quite surprising.

Throughout the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, the Parti Québécois fell some 14 points to only 34% support. The Liberals were also down, dropping six points to 32% since the 2008 election.

The Coalition Avenir Québec made the most important gain, picking up eight points to hit 18% support in the region. Québec Solidaire was up five points to 8% while the Greens were up about six points to 7%. They just need to find candidates for the region, as they only ran one in the five ridings in 2008.

There is little variation within the region, with the PQ and Liberals tied at 33% in Saguenay and the PQ holding an insignificant four-point edge over the Liberals in Lac-Saint-Jean.

The student protests appear to have greatly wounded the PQ in the region, as only 33% agree with the PQ's position on the matter. A majority, or 57%, are with the government. That hasn't helped the Liberals much as they are still down from the 2008 election, but it hurts the PQ much more.

With these levels of support, the Liberals would likely be able to pick up Chicoutimi and Roberval, while retaining Dubuc. The PQ would hold on to Jonquière and Lac-Saint-Jean.

The other survey, by Nadeau-Bellavance (a PR firm) was conducted in Estrie more recently, between June 18-23. Nadeau-Bellavance only polled francophones in the region, however, giving us just one piece of the puzzle.

Among francophones, Nadeau-Bellavance found the Parti Québécois well ahead with 37.8% support. The Liberals trailed with 28.3% while the CAQ was third with 16%. Québec Solidaire stood at 9.9% while the Greens were at 5.3%.

But, according to official statistics from the Quebec government, 10.6% of the population in Estrie have a language other than French as their mother tongue. If we insert those non-francophones into the survey, and portion them out according to the latest poll averages, the PQ is still ahead but with only 34.6% support. The Liberals trail with 31.7%, while there are no major differences for the other parties.

Compared to 2008, this represents a dramatic 10.5-point drop for the Liberals in the region. The PQ is down only 2.7 points, while Québec Solidaire is up six points. The Greens are up 2.4 points, while the CAQ is up 0.7 points over the ADQ's performance.

In terms of seats, the Liberals would only hold on to Mégantic and Orford with these numbers. Johnson, Richmond, Saint-François, and perhaps even Sherbrooke would go over to the Parti Québécois on this kind of shift in support.

These two polls suggest that Quebecers may swing in wildly different directions from region to region when they next cast their ballots. It will make the result difficult to predict. It should be a fascinating election.

PQ and Liberals neck-and-neck as CAQ falls away

Emotions are running high in Quebec at the moment, with the student protest continuing unabated and the provincial government coming down with a law seen by many as draconian, by many others as necessary. Over the last week, four polls on the provincial voting intentions of Quebecers have been released, and they all show that in the midst of this turmoil the Parti Québécois and governing Liberals are running neck-and-neck.

Starting with the oldest survey, conducted May 10-17 by Segma Recherche for Le Soleil, the Parti Québécois led in this poll with 32%, four points up on the Liberals.

The CAQ trailed with 19%, followed by Québec Solidaire at a very high 11%. The Greens were not far behind with 9%.

Segma has not been in the field for quite some time, so there is nothing to compare these results to.

But they generally jive with everything else we've seen. The PQ leads with 36% among francophones and is second among non-francophones with 14%, while they lead in the regions of the province with 37%. They trail the Liberals in Montreal with 29% and in Quebec City with 25%.

The Liberals are ahead among non-francophones with 55%, and lead in Montreal with 30% and Quebec City with 36%. They are running second in the regions with 25%.

This sort of divide, with the PQ ahead in the regions, the PLQ in Quebec City, and the two parties running close in and around Montreal, has been the case for months. What is interesting, however, is that Segma seems to suggest that the polls by Forum Research showing the CAQ in the doldrums were not so unusual.

Speaking of Forum, the firm released two polls over a few days as a result of the emergency legislation that came down late last week. Their poll from May 15 put the Liberals ahead of the PQ with 35% to 33%, while their poll from May 17 put the Liberals ahead by 34% to 33%.

Combining the two polls, we get the Liberals leading with 35%, unchanged from Forum's last poll of Apr. 24. The Parti Québécois trails with 33%, down two points, while the CAQ is up three points to 19%.

Québec Solidaire is up two points to 10% while the Greens stand at 3%.

The Liberals lead among non-francophones with 65% (-4), in Montreal with 36% (-5), and in Quebec City with 38% (+6). They are tied with the PQ on the north shore with 35% (+4) and trail in second with 30% on the south shore (unchanged) and among francophones (31%, +1).

The Parti Québécois leads among francophones with 35% (-4) and on the south shore with 37% (-6). They have dropped five points on the north shore to 35%, tied with Liberals, and trail in Montreal with 32% (+3) and in Quebec City with 26% (-4).

Both of these polls point to a minority government, but obviously the PQ is better placed with Segma's numbers. With those results, they win 62 seats to 49 for the Liberals, 10 for the CAQ, and four for Québec Solidaire.

The Parti Québécois wins 23 seats in and around Montreal, one in Quebec City, and 38 in the rest of Quebec, while the Liberals split their seats 29-9-11, respectively.

With Forum's numbers, the result is far closer. The Liberals squeak out a win with 59 seats (31 in Montreal, eight in Quebec City, 20 in the rest of Quebec) while the PQ takes 58 seats (25-1-32). The CAQ wins nine while QS takes two.

In both of these cases, the margin between minority and majority is so close that anything could happen. If we simply average out the two results, the PQ wins 60 seats to 54 for the Liberals. I wouldn't want to be projecting such a narrow gap the day before the election.

The newest poll, however, is probably more instructive. Taken May 19-21 by Léger Marketing, it encompasses some of the post-Bill 78 controversy and some of the violence of the weekend protests.

This poll puts the Liberals and PQ tied at 32%, representing a gain of four points for the Liberals and one point for the PQ since Léger's last poll of Apr. 30-May 2.

The CAQ is down three points to 21%. With Forum putting the party at between 18% and 19% support, Segma at 19%, and now Léger at 21%, it can be said with a good degree of confidence that François Legault's CAQ has indeed dropped from the mid-20s to around 20%.

Unfortunately, Léger did not release their regional results but we can see that the PQ leads among francophones with 39%, a gain of two points, while the Liberals are up three points to 25%. The CAQ is down two to 24%. Support among non-francophones has jumped by 10 points for the Liberals to 64%.

The Quebec seat projection model is regionally based, so I cannot make a projection for this poll. However, a Liberal/PQ tie would likely result in the Parti Québécois winning a few more seats than the Liberals but not achieving a majority.

The political dynamics in Quebec are getting quite interesting. The Liberals and Parti Québécois are in a death-grip while the CAQ is struggling to keep its head above water. At these levels of support, it can best hope to play the spoiler and be kingmaker in the next National Assembly, though the Liberals and PQ are weak enough that a campaign could turn everything on its head. And then there is the big chunk of support going to Québec Solidaire, which is now pushing the low-to-mid-teens around Montreal, and is almost certainly in third place on the island itself. That makes for a few interesting races - the Segma poll suggests the party could win as many as four seats.

The protests themselves look like they could last for at least another three months, while the inquiry into corruption in the construction industry has kicked off this week and will be returning in mid-September after a summer break. The inquiry is a hot commodity, some thinking it could be more explosive than Gomery, and it is supposed to report in October 2013. Jean Charest needs to call the election sometime between now and the end of 2013. And added to that can be two by-elections in June and another sometime before the end of the year due to the resignation of former education minister Line Beauchamp.

At this point, to call the political landscape of Quebec a minefield would be an understatement.

Arsenault on track to win Bonaventure

Quebecers love polls. Le Devoir/The Montreal Gazette and La Presse put out polls on a monthly basis, while in the last federal campaign one-third of Quebec's 75 ridings were polled individually. Less than a dozen were polled in the rest of the country.

A by-election in a safe Liberal riding far removed from Quebec's urban centres would not, you would think, garner much attention. But no, this week a second poll for the Bonaventure by-election has been released. By comparison, the last spate of federal by-elections, two of which were hotly contested and in major urban centres, were not polled at all!

This Bonaventure by-election, however, is not insignificant. Pauline Marois has been pressing the flesh for days in the riding, despite the odds being stacked against her. Helping out the local PQ candidate Sylvain Roy raises the stakes for Marois, as a loss will hurt her more than it otherwise would have. Of course, the PQ put off a national convention for this by-election so it would have been bad optics for her to put up her feet this past week.

But for all her efforts, it does not look like the Parti Québécois will pull off another upset in Bonaventure like they did in Kamouraska-Témiscouata a year ago. The poll by Segma Recherche for Graffici.ca and a local radio station suggests that little has changed since their last poll taken mid-campaign.

Liberal candidate Damien Arsenault has dropped only three points, and leads with 49%. Granted, that is a big drop from Nathalie Normandeau's numbers, but it is still almost a majority. The PQ is down one point to 35%, while Patricia Chartier of Québec Solidaire is up three points to 9%. That is not a bad number for QS, as it has not had a great record outside of Montreal.

The ADQ's Georges Painchaud is only at 4%, while Jean Cloutier of the Greens is at 3%. Cloutier got some attention this week as he invited francophones to vote for the PQ as it has the best chance to win while also having what he considers better positions on the environment.

Independent Martin Zibeau scored 0.4%.

Many have thought that Arsenault would win because he is an Arsenault, but that may not be the case. His town, Saint-Elzéar, is not exactly a metropolis in the region. Instead, Segma has found that 44% of Liberal supporters will be voting for Arsenault because of the good work that Normandeau did when she was the MNA. Only 35% said they were voting because of Arsenault himself, while 15% said they were voting for the Liberals because of their approval of Jean Charest's government.

For the other parties, Charest is the lightning rod. More than half said they were voting for another party because of their dissatisfaction with the Liberals, while only 23% identified the candidate as their primary reason for voting the way they intend to.

But what if François Legault's CAQ had entered a candidate into the race? Painchaud was likely hoping that an ADQ/CAQ merger would already be in the works by the day of the vote when he decided to carry the ADQ banner. But it would not have necessarily given him a win. Only 15% of respondents said they would have voted CAQ if the party had entered a candidate into the race. That would have put the party in a decent third, dropping the PQ to some 29% according to the poll, but nowhere near the Liberals, who would have dropped to about 45%.

Monday's vote looks like a slam dunk for Damien Arsenault and the Liberals, giving Jean Charest the first bit of good news he has had in quite some time. Though 35% would be a good improvement over the PQ's performance in the riding in 2008, it might not be enough of a gain to give Marois something to boast about. Will she survive the results? I don't think Bonaventure will put a stake in her leadership's heart, but it might be another nail in the coffin.

Will by-election boost Charest before battle with Legault begins in earnest?

Though François Legault launched his new Coalition-Avenir-Quebec party last week, voters in the eastern Quebec riding of Bonaventure will not see CAQ on the ballot when they vote in a by-election on Dec. 5. That is good news for Jean Charest. 

The leaders of the two main parties in Quebec’s National Assembly have both been unbalanced by the new arrival on the political scene. The by-election that was forced by the resignation of Liberal cabinet minister Nathalie Normandeau has come at a difficult time for both Mr. Charest and Pauline Marois.

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here.

This piece looks at a recent poll by Segma Recherche on the Bonaventure by-election, as well as the by-elections that have taken place since Jean Charest was first elected in 2003. This is the 21st by-election to take place in those eight years in Quebec, which might seem like a remarkable amount but 20 federal by-elections have also taken place since 2003. However, perhaps Quebec is more volatile, as eight of those 20 federal by-elections took place in the province while 14 of the last 39 by-elections (stretching back to 1998) took place in Quebec.

The province certainly accounts for more than its fair share of by-elections, at least over the last 13 years.

This one will be poured over, as it is somewhat of a test for both Jean Charest and Pauline Marois. One wonders how the CAQ would have performed in Bonaventure. According to the Segma poll: not very well. It seems it would have gotten something like 22% of the vote, which would have put it in a strong third or a weak second if it stole that vote primarily from the Parti Québécois.

But Bonaventure is not a good riding for the CAQ in general, since it has a long history of sticking to the Liberals (and, in particular, their well-known, long-serving, and popular MNAs) and even in their banner year of 2007 the ADQ did not do much better than 12% support. It was probably a good thing for the CAQ that François Legault did not do what was necessary to enter a candidate into the race. His launch would have been quite the let-down if it was closely followed by a third-place finish in its first electoral test.