PCs hold slender lead in Alberta

Environics released a new poll for the Calgary Herald on Monday, looking into the provincial voting intentions of Albertans. Compared to their last poll in late October 2009, there hasn't been much change.Both the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance remain unchanged at 34% and 28%, respectively. The Liberals have gained three points to reach 23%, as have the New Democrats at 12%.

Recall that in 2008, the electoral results for these parties was 53% for the PCs, 7% for the WA, 26% for the Liberals, and 8% for the NDP.

In Calgary, the PCs are up two points to 32% while the Wildrose Alliance is down three points to 31%. The Liberals make it a close race at 26%.

In Edmonton, the PCs are stable at 34% but the Liberals are up four to 31%. The WA and NDP are tied at 16% in the provincial capital.

Finally, in the rest of Alberta the Wildrose Alliance has jumped five points to tie the Progressive Conservatives at 37%. The governing party is down one point here.

According to Janet Brown, a polling consultant interviewed by the Calgary Herald, this poll would give the Progressive Conservatives 45 seats, the Wildrose Alliance 18 (four of them in Calgary and the rest in southern Alberta), the Liberals 16, and the NDP 4.

Compared to the 2008 election, that would be a 27-seat drop for Ed Stelmach. It would also be a gain of seven seats for the Liberals, two seats for the NDP, and 18 for the Wildrose Alliance. For the two traditional opposition parties, this would be a return to their 2004 electoral results.

I plan to develop my own projection model for the province once we near the next election.

Stelmach has had some terrible polls recently, so it is certainly good news for him to have the lead. It could be that Environics has had different results than other pollsters, or it could be that between the two Environics polls in October and now May, the Wildrose Alliance saw a bump (39% in November and 42% in February, according to Angus-Reid) but they have since returned to earth. If that is the case, it is most definitely good news for the beleaguered premier.

New IR Poll: 6-pt Conservative Lead

On Saturday, Ipsos-Reid released a new poll, and my apologies for not posting about it sooner. One of my intrepid readers alerted me to it, and I thank her for that.Ipsos-Reid's last poll was taken between April 20-22, and compared to that one there has been very little change at the national level. The Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats remain unchanged at 35%, 29%, and 16%, respectively.

The Bloc Québécois has gained one point (10%) and the Greens are down one (9%).

In Ontario, the race has tightened as the Liberals have dropped three points to 36%. The Conservatives have gained one point and stand at 36% as well. The NDP is up one to 16%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up four points to 39%, followed by the Liberals at 23% (down one). The Conservatives are also down one to 19%, and the NDP makes a gain of two at 13%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are well ahead with 42% (up three). The NDP (24%) is down three and the Liberals (22%) are down two. The Greens are down a point there to 9%.

Elsewhere, the Liberals hold a narrow lead in Atlantic Canada over the Conservatives, 35% to 33%. The Conservatives are down seven points to 54% in Alberta, while the Liberals are up nine (27%) and the NDP is down five (8%). In the Prairies, the Conservatives have 50% and the undisputed lead.

Support seems to divide along gender lines, as the Conservatives lead among males with 41% to the Liberals' 30% and the NDP's 15%. Among females, the Tories and Liberals are tied at 29% while the NDP is at 18%. Liberal, and to a lesser extent NDP, support is uniform, while the Conservatives have constructed their lead on male voters.

The Conservatives win 70 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 132.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West, 48 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 97.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 9 seats in the West, 13 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 28.

The Conservatives still take a hit compared to their present caucus, but the Liberals and NDP only combine for 125 seats.

There's one thing odd I noticed about this pollster's questions. They prompt for parties, but use different wording. When they list the parties, the say "The Conservative Party", "The New Democratic Party", "The Green Party", and "The Bloc Quebecois".

For the Liberal Party, however, they say "The Liberals". That seems like an odd thing to do, and I'm not sure why they would make a difference for the Liberal Party.

Would using the term "The Liberals" rather than "The Liberal Party" change a way a person would respond? What about if they used "The Conservatives" rather than "The Conservative Party"?