PCs on track for slim majority in Ontario

On Sunday, The National Post reported on a new poll from Ipsos-Reid on the voting intentions of Ontarians. Though it doesn't show much change from Ipsos's last poll in January, or much variation from Nanos's last poll in May, it does show a widening lead for Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives.

The Progressive Conservatives are up a statistically insignificant two points in Ontario, and now lead with 40%. The Liberals are down one point to 34%, while the New Democrats are up three points to 20%.

Even that gain isn't much to write home about, considering the sample of 802 Ontarians.

A six-point lead would be the slimmest since Mike Harris's last election in 1999, and would result in a similar outcome.

The Progressive Conservatives are up in places where they are usually weak, however. They have gained six points in the GTA and 17 points in northern Ontario, putting them neck-and-neck with the Liberals in both regions.

They have dropped a little in southwest (-2) and central (-3) Ontario, and are down 10 points in eastern Ontario. However, they still lead the Liberals by 16 points in that region.

For the Liberals, they have made modest gains in eastern (+6) and southwest (+5) Ontario, but are down six points in the GTA and four points in the north.

The New Democrats, meanwhile, are relatively stable in the GTA and southwest and central Ontario, but are up 11 points in the eastern part of the province. They are down seven in the north.

The Progressive Conservatives are in a good position, leading as they do in their traditional regions but also putting up a good fight in the GTA and northern Ontario. This should be of great concern to the Liberals.

With the results of this poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects a slim majority government for the Progressive Conservatives, with 57 of the province's 107 seats. The Liberals win 35 seats and the New Democrats 15.

Compared to their current standings in the Legislative Assembly, that's a 32-seat gain for the PCs, a 36-seat loss for the Liberals, and a five-seat pick-up for the NDP.

This is not much different from the projection for Nanos's last poll, which had 58 seats for the Progressive Conservatives and 34 for the Liberals.

Considering Dalton McGuinty's personal unpopularity, the PCs could be doing better than this. They are still well below the electoral outcome of the federal Conservatives in the province, and the provincial Liberals don't seem to have been hurt by their federal counterpart's drubbing at the polls.

Hudak will be running his first campaign as leader, McGuinty his fourth. Will Dalton McGuinty's experience win out, or will voters want change for change's sake?

McGuinty stands alone as peers soar in polls

The three most popular premiers in the country also happen to be heading into an election this fall. Their timing could not be better.

But another election in October could mean the end for one of Canada’s most consistently unpopular provincial leaders, Dalton McGuinty.

A poll conducted by Angus-Reid last month found that Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger, and Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Kathy Dunderdale had the highest approval ratings in Canada.

While Wall was the only premier to score over 50 per cent, both Selinger and Dunderdale attained 65 per cent approval among those who expressed an opinion. Wall tops out at 71 per cent among decided voters.

This should come as no surprise for Wall and Dunderdale, who both lead their rivals in the polls by virtually insurmountable margins and are on track to win majority governments in the fall. But this is a shift for Manitoba’s premier.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website.

These premier polls come out every few months, and last time Kathy Dunderdale was on top. Her numbers have dropped, however.

After removing the "not sures", we get a clean approval/disapproval rating which is far easier to compare across the nine provinces included.

Note: Prince Edward Island is not included in this survey. As someone at Angus-Reid told me, even in these massive 6,500-respondents surveys, PEI is still too small to get anything reliable. Consider that even with a sample of 6,500 Canadians, PEI's proportion should be around 30 people, a sample that would normally have an MOE of about 18%.

Back to the results - Brad Wall of Saskatchewan is now ranked first, with an approval rating of 71%. That is down four points from February, however.

Greg Selinger has moved from fourth to second and now has an approval rating of 65%, up 18 points. He is tied with Dunderdale, who drops 20 points to 65%, and from first place to third.

David Alward of New Brunswick is fourth, down one spot, but has improved his rating eight points to 63%.

Christy Clark debuts in fifth with 54%, far greater than the 19% Gordon Campbell had in February.

Ed Stelmach of Alberta remains in sixth, but his approval rating is up seven points to 33%. Darrell Dexter has dropped two spots to seventh, but is only down one point to 32%.

Dalton McGuinty is up two points but down one spot to eighth and 24%, while Jean Charest remains dead last. His approval is up six points to 22%, however.