Opinions on free trade

The polling being a little sparse, the most interesting set of numbers to come out this week has to do with what Canadians think of free trade. I invite you to read my analysis of a new Nanos Research poll on the subject for The Huffington Post Canada here.

In short, Canadians do not have a consensus opinion on our free trade agreements with the United States and Mexico but are peachy keen on new ones with the European Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (which does not include China).

The regional variations are not very surprising, but it is interesting that they emerge from the survey nevertheless. Take a look at the analysis.

That Canadians seem to be opening up to the idea of free trade with very foreign countries (concerns about the cultural infiltration of the United States is one of the reasons why Canadians have never warmed up to NAFTA completely) is in some way demonstrated by no major party in the House of Commons being an adamant opponent to it.

The Conservatives have tried to sign as many free trade agreements as possible and the Liberals are also in support of free trade. Under Thomas Mulcair, the New Democrats are opening up to the idea of free trade too, a turn towards the centre that - when looking at these Nanos numbers - makes a good deal of sense for them. Quebecers and British Columbians, the two electorates that I would consider the party's first two planks in an NDP government, are among Canada's most open to new free trade agreements and to our agreements currently in place. A more cautious approach, rather than their traditional opposition, may be the smartest one for the NDP to take.

Confusion in Ontario

If a provincial election were held in Ontario today, there’s no telling who would win. Dalton McGuinty, Tim Hudak, and Andrea Horwath would all have a shot, and not because they are locked in a close three-way race. The polls are just all over the place.

Ontario is the most confusing province in Canada when it comes to voting intentions, as the two firms most active on the provincial scene are in complete disagreement on what is happening and have been for months.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Ontario has been a very difficult province to cover. Forum Research and Nanos Research are both active in the province and they both consistently show completely different results. They both had decent showings in the 2011 provincial election, and there really isn't any other firm active in the province to provide a better idea of who has it right. They are so different that a "somewhere in between" reading of the polls is not very useful.

A poll that was released earlier this week, conducted by Forum for the Broadview Strategy Group, further muddied the waters as it gave the NDP a one-point lead over the Tories (36% to 35%), with the Liberals at only 22%. I generally dislike giving much prominence or credence to polls that are not done for the media or released directly by the polling firm (and Forum has yet to post the details to their website).

And somehow, Forum's seat projection model gives the Tories 48 seats with these results, the Liberals 30, and the New Democrats only 29. Perhaps the regional distribution is that great for the Liberals and that horrible for the NDP, but with a province-wide swing my model would divvy-up the seats as follows: 59 seats for the Progressive Conservatives, 42 for the New Democrats, and six for the Liberals.

Even here you can see that the New Democrats do not have very good vote efficiency, but it is very difficult to imagine how the Liberals could win 30 seats and form the Official Opposition with only 22%.

All in all, it makes Ontario - or more precisely, the polls being released for Ontario - very frustrating. The legislature being in a minority situation, and thus an election being always just around the corner, I hope the polls will start to align so that we can have a clue as to what is going on.

Provincial party leader approval ratings

Earlier this week, Angus-Reid released its quarterly poll on the approval and disapproval ratings of Canada's provincial premiers (with the exception of Prince Edward Island). Angus-Reid also includes the ratings for the highest scoring opposition leader for each province.

My analysis of the poll for The Huffington Post Canada can be found here.

Angus-Reid was kind enough to provide me with the approval ratings for other opposition leaders. Taken together, this makes a list of 30 leaders. Granted, some of those on the bottom of the list are lesser known leaders with high "Don't Know" scores, but it makes for an interesting nationwide ranking.

Brad Wall tops the list again, with an approval rating of 66%. Alison Redford is ranked second with 55%, while Greg Selinger ranks ninth with 48%. David Alward sits in 10th spot, followed by Kathy Dunderdale at 11th, Pauline Marois at 12th, Dalton McGuinty at 17th, Christy Clark at 25th, and Darrell Dexter at 27th.

For Leaders of the Official Opposition, Adrian Dix is ranked fourth overall, followed by Stephen McNeil (5th), Danielle Smith (6th), John Nilson (13th), Brian Pallister (14th), Tim Hudak (19th), Victor Boudreau (26th), and Dwight Ball (28th).

If we look at it in terms of ideology, New Democratic leaders have the best average score with 41%. Conservative leaders (including Wall, Clark, Smith, and Legault) average 36%, while Liberal leaders average 32%. Of course, it isn't quite as simple as that - Smith would bristle at being lumped together with Redford, while Clark, Charest, and Legault are difficult to pin down in terms of where they are on the political spectrum. Generally speaking, though, it would be appear that provincial politicians from the NDP narrowly edge out the Conservatives of various stripes, while the Liberals are not far behind. But each camp has their bears and their bulls.

Hopefully Angus-Reid will provide me with this information when they release their next quarterly poll in December. It will be interesting to see who moves up and who moves down.

Why the NDP's strategy might be working

When Thomas Mulcair became leader of the NDP, he promised a structured opposition that could take on the Conservative government. His strategy appears to be working.

Poll after poll has put the New Democrats neck-and-neck or ahead of the Conservatives, as yesterday’s Harris-Decima poll indicated. That survey pegged NDP support at 34 per cent, four points up on the Conservatives.

While some of this can be attributed to the honeymoon period that normally comes after a party selects a new leader, there might be more to the NDP’s good fortune.

Undoubtedly, Mulcair is benefiting from a series of bad headlines for the Conservatives. While any one of these stories might not have been enough to seriously dent the Tories’ support, the cumulative effect appears to have been quite damaging.

But on the other side of the aisle, the New Democrats are doing some of the right things. 

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

There was some talk on last night's At Issue panel about Thomas Mulcair's "Dutch Disease" comments and, as I've spelled out in my article which I wrote yesterday morning, I fall more on Chantal Hébert's side of the argument (usually the best place to be). Yes, these kinds of comments that criticize how the oil sands are being developed will win Mulcair no friends in certain parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, but those people were unlikely to have been considering a vote for the New Democrats anyway.

By framing the debate on the oil sands as an economic one, it puts the NDP on the same playing field as the Conservatives. Whether or not Mulcair's argument is sound is another question entirely, but it is far easier to dismiss environmental arguments in favour of economic prosperity. Stéphane Dion's "Green Shift" is a quick-and-easy example of that.

Bruce Anderson suggested that this tactic polarizes the debate and pits region against region, but here again this is an example of the New Democrats meeting the Conservatives on the same level. Rather than having the two parties talk past each other, they are instead arguing with one another on the same terms. Idealism is great for a protest party, but it is not a vote winner. It can be argued that the Liberals took on the mantle of a protest party in the 2011 federal election more than the NDP did, and they were shunted off to third place as a result. Cynical it might be, but there are politics as they should be and then there are politics as they are. Mulcair's strategy is working so far, I would submit, because he is playing the game.

New Democrats solid in B.C.

The NDP wave has already swept across Quebec, and B.C. may be the next province to succumb to the Orange Crush.

The New Democrats have a long history in B.C., having formed the government on several occasions. But the federal NDP has not won B.C. since 1988, when the party took 37 per cent of the vote under Ed Broadbent. Though their lead over the Progressive Conservatives was only two points, it was enough to give the party 19 of the 32 seats in the province.

The NDP also won the popular vote in B.C. in 1962, 1965 and 1972. But the party's drought in the province now stands at 24 years. Will it end in 2015?

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

But let's here take a look at the latest Forum Research poll on the provincial voting intentions of British Columbians.

Forum Research was last in the field on Apr. 11, shortly before the two by-election victories by the New Democrats in B.C. Liberal ridings.

Since that poll, the B.C. New Democrats have picked up two points and now lead with 48% support, their highest result in any poll since October 2010.

The B.C. Liberals are unchanged at 23% while the B.C. Conservatives are down four points to 19%. The Greens are steady at 8% support.

The Conservatives did worse than expected in the two by-elections, so this drop in support is not too surprising. But it is significant that even the combined vote of the Liberals and Conservatives (42%) is below that of the New Democrats. In the Apr. 11 poll, the NDP and the Liberals/Conservatives each had 46% support apiece.

The NDP has held relatively steady in Vancouver-Lower Mainland with 47% (+2) and 42% (-1) in the Interior/North. They are up six points on Vancouver Island to 56%.

The Liberals are up two points in Vancouver-Lower Mainland to 25% and seven points in the Interior/North to 27%, but are down six points to 16% on Vancouver Island.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are down four to 20% in Vancouver-Lower Mainland and nine in the Interior/North to 15%, but are unchanged at 19% on Vancouver Island.

One of the problems that the Conservatives had in the two by-elections was getting their vote out - compared to the well-oiled Liberal machine the Conservative rookies were outmatched. Organization isn't everything, though, with the NDP in Quebec being a prime example. But what the NDP in Quebec had that the Conservatives in BC do not is voter enthusiasm.

The Forum poll shows that 88% of NDP voters are very or somewhat enthusiastic about casting their ballot for the NDP in the next election, a stellar result. The Liberals, however, register only 70% while the Conservatives muster only 67%. If anything, that means the NDP could be expected to do even better than 48% if an election had been held on May 2.

The seat result is, with a 25-point lead, a landslide for the NDP. They win 73 seats out of the 85 in the legislature, with the B.C. Liberals forming a paltry opposition of seven seats. The Conservatives and two independents split the remaining five.

But despite the NDP sweep and horrible numbers for the Liberals, Christy Clark gets a higher approval rating among her voters than either Adrian Dix or John Cummins: 69% to 67% for Dix and 60% for Cummins. Though with so little support, one might expect the Liberals to be down to their diehards.

Province wide, Clark has the worst approval rating spread. She scores 25% approval to 62% disapproval, a net result of -37. Cummins scores a lower approval rating (21%), but is only a net -20 as his disapproval is at 41%. Dix has an approval rating of 39%, with 31% disapproving.

Take out the "Don't Knows", and Dix has an approval rating of 56% to 34% for Cummins and only 29% for Clark. That shows the real gap between Dix and the other two leaders.

The B.C. Liberals are considering a name change, but it doesn't seem likely that will save them. Only 16% of British Columbians think they should change their name and only 23% of Liberal supporters. Shocking, really, that a change of name isn't a cure-all.

High stakes in Kitchener-Waterloo

Within a year of the 2011 provincial election, the Ontario Liberals could regain their majority government and deal Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives a crippling blow. 

The resignation of Kitchener-Waterloo PC MPP Elizabeth Witmer gives Dalton McGuinty the opportunity to eke out the slimmest of majorities. If the Liberals can win the seat, it would put them and the PC and NDP opposition at 53 seats apiece, a tie broken by Liberal Speaker Dave Levac.

You can read the rest of the article at The Huffington Post Canada here.

The stakes could not be higher in a by-election. Kitchener-Waterloo has voted for Elizabeth Witmer for 22 years, so the important question is whether the riding is a Witmer riding or a Tory riding. Certainly, it has voted Conservative at the federal level but Dalton McGuinty did not win the last election by holding on to ridings that only vote Liberal at federally.

Is Kitchener-Waterloo at play? Most definitely. Both provincially and federally it as been a relatively close race. However, it is difficult to determine where the parties currently stand in Ontario.

The last Forum poll put the Progressive Conservatives in the lead with 34%, with the New Democrats trailing in second with 31% and the Liberals in third with 28%.

The last Nanos poll put the Liberals in the lead with 35% to 32% for the Tories and 27% for the NDP. The margin of error in the Nanos poll was 4.4%, and with Forum's MOE these two polls are not necessarily contradictory. Outside of an election as we are, this is perhaps not too unusual. But Forum has long shown a PC lead while Nanos has long shown a Liberal lead.

What we can certainly say is that the race is a very close one between the three parties. That makes Kitchener-Waterloo even more of a toss-up.

Prior to the two by-elections in British Columbia, I had applied the swing model to the two B.C. ridings using the latest poll numbers and came to some close results. Let's do the same with Kitchener-Waterloo using the numbers from Nanos and Forum, and applying the incumbency penalty for the resignation of Witmer.

The two polls make for some very different races. With the Liberals holding a narrow lead provincially, and with the resignation of the long-time MPP, the Tories and the Liberals are neck-and-neck with 37% for the PCs and 36% for the Liberals. The New Democrats, despite making gains in Nanos's polling, are still not a factor in the riding.

But with the Liberals trailing in third, the Progressive Conservatives only take a very small hit from their 2011 election result and win easily. The gains made by the NDP eat into the Liberal vote even more, putting the New Democrats closer to the Liberals than the Liberals are to the Tories.

These are two very plausible scenarios. If the race becomes one between the PCs and the Liberals - between opposition and a majority government - the election could be a very close one. If the sort of gains that Forum and Environics have attributed to the NDP are real, however, they could play the spoiler and help the PCs hold the seat. That, in the end, is just fine for the New Democrats, who need the legislature to remain in a minority situation.

Of course, without knowing the candidates this is only speculation. If the Liberals put forward a candidate of cabinet calibre, that could well put them over the top. The New Democrats could also nominate a great candidate and manage to unify the opposition vote or the progressive vote.

The riding remains, however, the Tories' to lose. They haven't had much luck in by-elections lately, with John Tory failing to win Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock in 2009 and Ottawa West-Nepean, held by John Baird at the federal level, sticking with the Liberals in 2010. But all the parties will pull out all of the stops in Kitchener-Waterloo.

UPDATE: Steve Paikin from TVO writes here that even if the Liberals win Kitchener-Waterloo, they won't have a real majority as the Speaker will not vote to create a law, only to continue to a second and third reading. However, the post also says that the Speaker would not vote no confidence in the government, ensuring that, if the Liberals win Kitchener-Waterloo, they cannot be defeated (as long as everyone shows up to vote). That is an important part of having a majority, so the implications for this by-election are still huge. But I am also not sure that this means in terms of a budget. If a Speaker cannot vote no confidence in a government, and so defeat the government, can he vote against a budget, which is always a confidence vote? And what role does precedent (always there to be broken) play here?

NDP back in first in Quebec

A new poll by Forum Research shows that, despite the robocall allegations and indications that more Canadians blame the Conservatives for the alleged calls than any other party, support remains unchanged at the national level. But in Quebec, the New Democrats have moved back into first place after languishing in second or even third in Forum's polling.

You can read my article about what this new Forum poll says about the robocall allegations at The Huffington Post Canada here.
Forum Research was last in the field on February 6, and since then the Conservatives have gained one point. They now lead with 37% support.

The New Democrats are unchanged at 28% while the Liberals have slipped one point to 25%.

The Bloc Québécois is down one to 5% and the Greens are up one to 4%.

Forum made two very welcome improvements to their polling, at least in this report. Alberta has split off from the Prairies and the poll was taken over two days instead of over one. Hopefully, Forum will continue to conduct and report its findings in this manner.

The most noteworthy regional shift in this poll is in Quebec, where the NDP has picked up six points (since Forum's Quebec-only February 23 poll) and leads once again with 28%. They are trailed by the Liberals, unchanged at 26%, and the Bloc Québécois, down six points to 23%. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are up one point to 18%.

The Conservatives lead in every other region of the country. In Ontario, they are down four points to 38% while the NDP is up five points to 29% to tie the Liberals, who are unchanged from last month.

In British Columbia, the Conservative have picked up eight points and now lead with 40%. The New Democrats stand at 31% (-8) and the Liberals at 17% (-7). The Greens get their best result here with 11% support, up six points.

The Conservatives lead with 69% in Alberta, followed by the NDP (16%) and the Liberals (11%), while they hold a narrow lead in Atlantic Canada with 35% (+2) to the NDP's 33% (unchanged) and the Liberals' 29% (+1).

And in the Prairies, the Conservatives have 47% support to 27% for the Liberals and 25% for the NDP. That is a bit of an odd result, as in most polls the Liberals have been languishing in third in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

With these levels of support, the Conservatives win 149 seats, six short of a majority. The New Democrats win 77 seats and the Liberals win 70, giving them a combined 147 seats, two short of the Tories. The Bloc Québécois wins 11 seats while the Greens win one.

The Conservatives win 20 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 56 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 11 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 24 in Ontario, 32 in Quebec, six in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, five in the Prairies, 26 in Ontario, 22 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

In a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives win 166 seats, only four short of a majority. Their share of all seats increases from 48.4% to 49.1%.

The NDP wins 83 seats, its share decreasing from 25% to 24.6%, while the Liberals win 76 seats, their share decreasing from 22.7% to 22.5%.

This is the first poll in a little while to show the Conservatives so close to a majority. Another feature of recent polling is that the New Democrats and Liberals are no longer in a position to outnumber the Conservatives, and especially to form a majority on their own. This is partly the fault of the Bloc Québécois. Though their support is still stuck at around where it was in May 2011, they are doing much better relative to the New Democrats. The seven extra seats they win in this poll make a big difference - hand them to the NDP and a combination of Liberal, Green, and NDP seats would total 154, or half of the House.

What is perhaps most surprising is that support for the Conservatives is rock solid, despite the allegations flying about. Can the Tories sail through another bit of bad news unscathed, or is this the calm before the storm?

Conservatives hold steady

Nanos Research reports today that support for the Conservatives hasn't changed a bit over the last month, despite allegations of impropriety during the last federal election.

Just how successful might this impropriety have been? My article for The Globe and Mail today shows that it might not have been very successful.

You can also read my article for The Huffington Post Canada on this Nanos poll and the recent EKOS poll here.

Before getting to the Nanos poll, a few words on my article for the Globe. I've already seen a lot of comments emphasizing the point made in the headline, that turnout was higher in allegedly robo-called ridings than in other ridings. But the most interesting aspect of my analysis, at least in my view, is further down the page, seemingly confirming my fear that too many people only read the headline and the first paragraph before coming to a conclusion about what an article says.

The point I make is that turnout was higher, yes, but likely because the ridings allegedly targeted are competitive. The margin of victory in the robo-call ridings was roughly half of the margin of victory in other ridings. So while this might not tell us whether this alleged tactic was successful or not, it does appear to suggest why these ridings were allegedly targeted.

That might not come as a surprise, but I always find it interesting to provide numbers to what is a generally perceived notion. It is more interesting to disprove that generally perceived notion - early reports of the scandal said that turnout was lower in targeted ridings. That does not seem to be the case.

Now to this Nanos poll. It shows that the Conservatives are unchanged since Nanos was last in the field January 20-23. They still have the support of 35.7% of Canadians.

The Liberals are up 1.9 points to 29.5% while the New Democrats are down 0.2 points to 25%.

The Bloc Québécois stands at 4.9% national support. The Greens are down 1.1 points to 3.4%.

As I mention in the Huffington Post article, Nanos has often registered Liberal support higher than other pollsters. That does not mean they are wrong (the others might be wrong, or the truth somewhere in the middle), but it does reduce the significance of the Liberals placing second and the NDP third. The polls do not consistently show this to be the case, so at the very least we can say that the race for second is probably tight.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia with 41.1% (+0.1), trailed by the Liberals at 28.2% (+7) and the NDP at 23.1% (-5.4). The Greens are fourth with 6.2%, down 1.9 points since the end of January.

The Tories also lead in Atlantic Canada with 45.6%, up 16.1 points. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 33.3% while the NDP is down 14.9 points to 20.3%. Wild swings like this, combined with the small sample, make the meaning of these numbers relatively low.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives have 48.2% support (+0.2), well ahead of the NDP (24.4%, -1.5) and the Liberals (20.6%, +0.1).

The Liberals lead in Ontario with 37.8% (+2.7), thanks to a big 6.2-point slip by the Conservatives to 35.9%. The NDP is third with 21.9%, up five points.

The New Democrats lead in Quebec with 32.6%, up 3.6 points. There is some inconsistency among the pollsters as to whether the NDP is on the uptick or the downswing. This suggests that the NDP is generally stable somewhere around 30%. The Liberals are second in Quebec with 26.8% (+0.3), edging out the Bloc Québécois at 20.9% (-3.2) and the Conservatives at 15.8% (+0.7).

With these numbers, the Conservatives would win 136 seats. They would likely be toppled by the Liberals and the New Democrats, who combine for 167 seats. But in contrast to some other polls, this one results with the Liberals at the top of the duo with 86 seats to the NDP's 81. The Bloc Québécois would win four seats and the Greens one.

The Conservatives win 22 seats in British Columbia, 25 in Alberta, 17 in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 18 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win eight seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 43 in Ontario, 18 in Quebec, nine in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win five seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 17 in Ontario, 46 in Quebec, five in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

With the House increasing to 338 seats by 2015, a rough estimate ups the Conservative total to 152 seats, with the Liberals winning 95, the NDP 86, the Bloc four, and the Greens one. The Conservatives and Liberals benefit from the extra seats, with the Conservative portion of the House increasing from 44.2% to 45% and the Liberal portion from 27.9% to 28.1%. The NDP portion falls from 26.2% to 25.4%.

In Nanos's Leadership Index (a combination of percentages on the questions of trust, competence, and vision), Stephen Harper tops the list with 102.4 points, compared to 54.4 for Bob Rae, 24.6 for Elizabeth May (rocketing up to third!), 20.3 for Nycole Turmel, and 11.7 for Daniel Paillé.

If we change those into percentages of the total, we get 48% for Harper, 25% for Rae, 12% for May, 10% for Turmel, and 5% for Paillé. If we took those as "Best PM" results, it would be pretty plausible at this point.

This poll points to stability - not exactly the replacement of the NDP as the Opposition by the Liberals. Nanos's last poll also showed that. In today's volatile climate, this lack of change is somewhat surprising. It will be more surprising if this persists straight through to the NDP leadership convention and the budget at the end of March.

Parti Québécois minority?

The latest numbers from Léger Marketing, published in the Journal de Montréal yesterday, caused quite a stir. They placed the Liberals, Parti Québécois, and Coalition Avenir Québec in a three-way tie, suggesting that the CAQ is slipping and the PQ, written off only weeks ago, is on the upswing.

Léger was last in the field January 23-25, so only a few weeks ago. Since then, the Liberals have gained three points and are tied with the Parti Québécois at 29%. The PQ has picked four points since Léger's last poll.

The CAQ, meanwhile, has dropped again - this time by four points to 28% support, putting them in third. Since the party was launched in November, no poll has put the CAQ at anywhere but first place, while the PQ was last tied for the lead in Léger's polling in June 2011.

Québec Solidaire is down one point to 8% while the Greens are down two to 4%.

This is a huge change in Quebec. The PQ was on the road to catastrophe, following in the footsteps of the Bloc Québécois's debacle in May 2011. The CAQ was going to romp to victory, but instead we have a close three-way race between the parties, meaning anyone could come out on top.

But at the moment the PQ has the advantage. That is because they lead among francophone Quebecers with 35% to 32% for the CAQ. That is a gain of five points for the PQ and a drop of four for the CAQ. The Liberals trail with 19%, up one point since the end of January.

This lead among francophones gives the PQ a big advantage outside of Montreal and Quebec City. They lead there with 37%, up 11 points since the end of January. The CAQ is down eight to 30% while the Liberals are down one to 20%.

The Liberals lead in the Montreal RMR with 35% (+5) against only 25% for the CAQ (-1) and 23% for the PQ (-2). The Liberals are tied with the CAQ in the Quebec City RMR with 32% (+5 for the Liberals, -1 for the CAQ). The PQ is well behind at 22%.

But Léger also released more detailed regional data, which they acquired thanks to their large sample size. I've removed QS, the PVQ, and the Others from the chart to make it a bit easier to read (QS and the PVQ are generally uniform anyway).

What this shows is that the province is very clearly divided up between the three parties. The Liberals lead in Montréal, the Montérégie, and in the Outaouais, while the CAQ leads in the Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches, and Laval/Laurentides/Lanaudière.

The PQ leads in the rest of the province: Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspésie, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Mauricie, Estrie/Centre-du-Québec, Abitibi-Témicamingue/Nord-du-Québec, and the Côte-Nord.

Put more simply, the Liberals lead in Montreal and south of the city as well as in the Outaouais (the more federalist and anglophone parts of Quebec), the CAQ leads around Quebec City and north of Montreal (francophone middle-class areas that the ADQ performed well in back in 2007), and the PQ leads in the rest of the province (francophone, rural, and more isolated parts of the province).

If we look at it in terms of regions where parties are doing better than they are in Quebec as a whole, we see that the Liberals are doing well in the Chaudière-Appalaches (south of Quebec City) region as well as in the three regions in which they lead. That means that the CAQ will have some competition in one part of the province that is supposed to be more of a fortress for them.

It also shows that the PQ will be competitive in the Laval/Laurentides/Lanaudière regions north of Montreal, another part of the province that is supposed to be CAQ-territory.

The CAQ is also over-achieving in the Mauricie, Estrie/Centre-du-Québec, Montérégie, Abitibi-Témiscamingue/Nord-du-Québec, and Côte-Nord regions. This indicates that the CAQ will be able to put up a fight against the PQ in some of the francophone parts of the province and against the Liberals in the southern suburbs of Montreal.

In other words, an extraordinarily competitive election. The island of Montreal is safely Liberal, the PQ is safe in the Lac-Saint-Jean and northern Quebec regions, and the CAQ is well-positioned (but not dominant) in ADQ-friendly territory in and around Quebec City. But aside from that almost every riding will be hotly contested.

And this means a very divided National Assembly. Though the Quebec projection model is not 100% completed yet, it has been updated to reflect the new electoral boundaries. By-elections are also taken into account but not all factors have been applied.

With these numbers, and thanks to their lead among francophones, the Parti Québécois wins 49 seats, enough for a minority government if the CAQ decides not to prop-up the Liberals, who win 41 seats. The CAQ wins 33 seats and Québec Solidaire takes two.

But these are very close seat results, suggesting that any outcome is possible. The most likely scenario, however, points to a PQ minority with the Liberals forming the Official Opposition and the CAQ not far behind.

The Parti Québécois wins most of its seats in the regions of Quebec with 38. They take another 10 in the Montreal RMR and one in and around Quebec City.

The Liberals win most of their seats in and around Montreal, taking 33. They win four in Quebec City and another four in the rest of the province.

The CAQ wins 13 seats in and around Montreal, six in and around Quebec City, and 14 in the rest of Quebec.

What is interesting about this projection is how it demonstrates what the change in the electoral boundaries does. When writing my Huffington Post article yesterday I did a quick projection using the old boundaries and came up with 53 PQ, 41 PLQ, and 29 CAQ seats. With the boundaries being tweaked and the Montreal area gaining a few extra seats that have been removed from rural parts of the province, the result is that the PQ is penalized to the benefit of the Liberals and the CAQ, who are stronger in and around Montreal.

With demographics favouring the metropolis, the electoral advantage the Parti Québécois has enjoyed in the past due to its support among francophones is being reduced somewhat. With the voting intentions of Quebecers being split three-ways, and with Québec Solidaire strong enough to siphon off enough support to play the PQ spoiler in more than a few ridings, the next election in Quebec could result in something completely unexpected.

NDP up in BC, down in Quebec

On Friday, The National Post reported on a new Forum Research poll that looked at the federal voting intentions of Canadians. It also peeked at who Canadians think should be the next leader of the NDP.

Of course, yesterday was quite the day in NDP polling, as internal numbers from the Dewar and Mulcair campaigns were released. I'll go into more detail on them tomorrow when the endorsement rankings are updated, but in the meantime you can read my article about them at The Huffington Post Canada here.

Forum was last in the field on January 13, and since then there has been very little change at the national level. The Conservatives are up one to 36%, the New Democrats are unchanged at 28%, and the Liberals are up one to 26%.

The Bloc Québécois is steady at 6% while the Greens are down one to 3%.

Things are also steady in Ontario, where the Conservatives are at 42% (+1), the Liberals are at 29%, and the NDP is at 24% (-1).

But there have been big shifts in Quebec and British Columbia. On the West Coast, the New Democrats have picked up seven points and now lead with 39%, well ahead of the Conservatives. And this despite them gaining two points to hit 32%. The Liberals have made the room, dropping six points to 24%.

Quebec is the most significant change, as the Liberals have moved into first place ahead of the NDP. They are up seven points to 28% while the New Democrats are down four points to 25%. The Conservatives are up two to 24% and the Bloc is down three to 20%.

Could it be? While Forum is the first and only polling firm to put the Liberals ahead of the NDP in Quebec, they are not the first to show an increase in Liberal strength in the province as well as a decrease in support for the NDP.

This chart shows results in Quebec for the Liberals and NDP since the beginning of December (not spaced out correctly for time, but you get the idea). While the results are somewhat of a scatter shot, an uptick in Liberal support coupled with a slip in NDP support has become apparent.

This is somewhat surprising, though not because the New Democrats may have slipped into second. They have been on a downward trajectory since October-November. What is surprising is that the Liberals, the party of the sponsorship scandal, may have moved into first. Many had suspected that Quebec was lost to the Liberals and would be for a very long time. Perhaps a rebound of the Bloc Québécois is not inevitable, and in the absence of a consensus alternative to the unpopular Conservatives it is the Liberals that will benefit.

The rest of the poll shows pretty standard fare, the Conservatives well ahead in the Prairies (including Alberta) and a three-way race in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservatives win 150 seats with the results of this poll. The New Democrats win 84 and the Liberals take 67, which is quite problematic for them. With a total of 151 seats, the NDP and Liberals are not in a position to form a majority coalition government. For one, the Conservatives are too high in Ontario, but the NDP and Liberals are also shooting each other in the foot by running so close together as the alternative option.

The Conservatives win 13 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 64 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 16 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, nine in the Prairies, 22 in Ontario, 28 in Quebec, six in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win six seats in British Columbia, three in the Prairies, 20 in Ontario, 25 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Bloc Québécois wins six seats in Quebec and the Greens win one in British Columbia.

Now to the NDP leadership race, which Forum has been polling for some time. Their findings have been waved off as irrelevant since they are polling all Canadians or NDP supporters (as if their opinions are irrelevant!), but surprisingly the most recent figures from Forum actually line-up generally well with the recent internal polling from the campaigns of Paul Dewar and Thomas Mulcair. Aside from a slight under-estimation of Nathan Cullen's support and an over-estimation of Thomas Mulcair's, Forum's polling of NDP supporters is actually not too far off what polls of NDP members have indicated.

In this survey, Mulcair leads the pack among decided NDP supporters with 38%, followed by Peggy Nash at 17%, Paul Dewar at 14%, and Brian Topp at 12%. If we take out the undecideds, Mulcair has the support of 19% to 8% for Nash, 7% for Dewar, and 6% for Topp. Canadians generally share that opinion, though there is a tie among the three that appear to have been identified as running in a close race for second in Dewar's and Mulcair's polling.

Since Forum has begun tracking these numbers, there has been very little change. Mulcair was at 19% among all NDP supporters in early January as well, while the others have been going up or down a tick over the past few months without any clear trend. It would appear that NDP supporters are most apt to prefer Mulcair but aside from that no other candidate is building up a head of steam, at least in the opinion of the general public. But it is interesting to see that their opinion is not so out of step with that of the NDP's membership, at least at this stage of the game.

Tory fundraising lead narrows

The Conservatives remain Canada’s best funded political party, but for the first time in five years they are no longer taking in most of Canada’s political donations.

Financial reports posted on the Elections Canada website this week show that the Conservatives raised $4.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2011. While this was more than any other party, it was the worst fourth quarter result since before Stephen Harper became prime minister. 

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here. It takes a look at how this fourth quarter of 2011 compares to others in the past.

Compared to the Conservatives' $4.1 million raised, the Liberals raised $2.8 million, the NDP $1.6 million, the Greens $383,000 and the Bloc Québécois $162,000. What does that mean in electoral terms?

Let's try to find out. In the second quarter of 2011, which happened to include a federal election, the Conservatives raised $8.2 million, more than the other four parties combined. The Liberals raised $3.6 million while the New Democrats raised $3.1 million. The Greens raked in almost $800,000 while the Bloc took in almost $600,000.

What did it get them? For the sake of this exercise, let's assume that money raised during the second quarter of 2011 is related to the number of votes each party received. How much money did each party have to raise to get one vote?

$1.41 per vote - Conservatives
$1.34 per vote - Greens
$1.31 per vote - Liberals
$0.69 per vote - New Democrats
$0.64 per vote - Bloc Québécois

With these numbers, let's "buy" votes using money raised in the fourth quarter. The end result, in total vote share (and with difference from the 2011 election result in brackets), is:

36.6% - Conservatives (-3.0)
29.5% - New Democrats  (-1.1)
27.0% - Liberals (+8.1)
3.6% - Greens (-0.3)
3.2% - Bloc Québécois (-2.8)

This actually looks quite similar to the some of the polls that we've seen recently. But what it does put into context is that this was a very good quarter for the Liberals. Of course, the Conservatives still raised the most money but their advantage over the Liberals and, to a lesser extent, the New Democrats has been reduced. It almost appears that the Liberals and NDP have kept their fundraising machines ticking while the Conservatives have taken their foot off the gas a little.

It should come as no surprise, however, that the Bloc Québécois would be having such a hard time of it after the May 2011 debacle. Adding to their trouble is that Quebec is heading towards an election, meaning the average Bloc donor is probably giving his or her money to the Parti Québécois, if at all. Translating that 3.2% in our exercise means a drop to about 12.5% in Quebec - absolute disaster for the Bloc. But the party tends to raise a lot of its funds at the local level, so perhaps this isn't as disastrous as it appears.

Also released this week were the fundraising totals of the NDP leadership hopefuls. Glen McGregor has a very neat graph here and the CBC has the actual details here. Brian Topp and Thomas Mulcair top the list, with Topp raising the most money but Mulcair having the most donors. Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar came in third and fourth, rounding out the top four. But surprisingly, Nathan Cullen pulled in the fifth most amount of money, coming up less than $8,000 short of Dewar's total. Cullen may be a much more important factor in this race than previously thought, as both he and Dewar have raised around $90,000 despite Dewar having the far greater national profile.

Martin Singh comes up with almost $50,000, while Roméo Saganash and Niki Ashton each raised less than $20,000.

These totals tell a slightly different story of the race than, for example, my endorsement rankings. Brian Topp is still in first, but Thomas Mulcair is very close and well ahead of both Nash and Dewar. Though those are the four frontrunners, Nathan Cullen is very much in the race and Niki Ashton is very much at the bottom. However, we don't know how much was raised in January and there is still more than a month before the convention, so these numbers could change dramatically before the end of March. But these totals do paint a portrait of the race that is easily the most objective and quantifiable information that we've seen so far in this campaign.

NDP slips in Quebec

With a steep drop in support among francophones, the New Democrats are now only one or two points ahead of their main rivals in Quebec, where more than half of the NDP’s 101 MPs were elected in May 2011.

Two recent surveys, one by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail and the other by Léger Marketing for Le Devoir and the Montreal Gazette, indicate the New Democrats continue to bleed support in the battleground province.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

The article focuses on the results of the Nanos and Léger surveys in Quebec. But let's here take a closer look at the Léger poll as well as Nanos's national results.

Nanos Research was last in the field December 15-18, and since then the Conservatives have dropped 0.8 points to 35.7%. They are trailed not by the NDP, however, but instead by the Liberals, who are up two points to 27.6%.

The New Democrats trail in third with 25.2%, down 3.5 points since Nanos's last poll.

Nanos is the polling firm that records Liberal support higher than any other at the moment, while also showing NDP support to be lower than other surveys. It certainly makes it stand out from the others, particularly in terms of its strong Liberal showing in Quebec and its weak NDP number in Ontario.

But there have been two polls recently that pegged Liberal support at 25%, while more have put the NDP at 28%. This does not make Nanos too different, though it does put it on the optimistic side of Liberal support.

The Conservatives are up 7.6 points in Ontario to 42.1%, followed by the Liberals at 35.1%, down 3.3 points. The New Democrats are down a whopping 12.6 points to 16.9%, a number so large that I think we can expect a whopping NDP gain in Nanos's next survey.

Quebec is the most interesting result, and in fact is not too different from the Léger poll below. The New Democrats are down 4.4 points to 29%, while the Liberals are up 3.6 points to 26.5%. The Bloc Québécois is up 4.2 points to 24.1%, while the Conservatives are down 5.7 points to 15.1%. This is not the first poll to show the NDP down to this level of support, and corroborates the slip that Léger has also recorded since mid-December (as well as the Liberal gain).

Elsewhere, the Conservatives have gained 6.6 points in British Columbia and lead with 41%, while they have dropped 6.4 points in the Prairies (including Alberta) to 48.1%. They are also down 12.1 points in Atlantic Canada to 29.5%.

The Liberals have gained 4.5 points in Atlantic Canada to reach 33.6%, while they have not moved much in British Columbia (21.2%, down 1.6) and the Prairies (20.5%, up 1.1). The New Democrats are down 4.7 points to 28.5% in British Columbia, but are up 5.1 points to 25.9% in the Prairies and 9.2 points to 35.2% in Atlantic Canada. The NDP has led in four of five recent polls on the East Coast.

With the current 308-seat electoral map, the Conservatives win 134 seats with the results of this poll. The Liberals win 80 and the New Democrats win 66, while the Greens take one and the Bloc takes 12.

The Conservatives win 20 seats in British Columbia, 24 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 56 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, nine in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 37 in Ontario, 22 in Quebec, 16 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 11 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, seven in the Prairies, 13 in Ontario, 33 in Quebec, seven in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

This would still give the Liberals and the NDP a combined majority of seats, but would place the NDP in a junior position. And while 29% and 33 seats is not great for the NDP in Quebec compared to their election result (though stellar compared to where they were a year ago), it could be worse.

Léger was last in the field December 13-14, and since then the NDP has dropped five points to 28% in Quebec, a very similar result and trend to what was identified in the Nanos poll.

The Bloc Québécois has picked up one point to close to within one of the NDP, and stands at 27%. The Liberals are up five points to 22%, while the Conservatives are down three to 15%.

Those are not dissimilar results to Nanos. It gives us a range of 28-29% for the NDP, 24-27% for the Bloc, 22-27% for the Liberals, and 15% for the Conservatives. That is relatively tight, but compared to other surveys conducted in January it is on the higher end for both the Liberals and the Bloc, and the lower end for the NDP. Nevertheless, Léger and Nanos have the most up-to-date data available.

The New Democrats have dropped among francophones (seven points to 26%), non-francophones (three points to 33%), in Montreal (four points to 30%), and in the rest of Quebec (nine points to 26%). This is problematic in every case, as it puts the NDP behind the Bloc among francophones and in the rest of Quebec, behind the Liberals among non-francophones, and in a close race with the Bloc and the Liberals in the Montreal area. The NDP has picked up one point in Quebec City, but they stand at 24%, seven points behind the Tories.

The Bloc is up two among francophones, in Montreal, and in the rest of Quebec. They are down six in Quebec City, however.

The Liberals are up four points among francophones and in the rest of Quebec, six points in Montreal and Quebec City, and 10 points among non-francophones.

The Tories have slipped two points among francophones and in Quebec City and five points in Montreal and among non-francophones.

These numbers would result in 27 seats for the Bloc Québécois, 25 for the New Democrats, 15 for the Liberals, and eight for the Conservatives.

Those are very problematic numbers for the NDP. Grafted on to today's parliament, it would reduce the NDP to only 68 seats in the House of Commons (the Liberals would increase to 42, the Conservatives to 169).

Being in the lead is still a good thing for the NDP, but they are in a very delicate position. By the time the next leader is chosen, he or she may take over a party in second or third place in Quebec unless things are turned around. The one advantage the NDP does have in this case, however, appears to be that neither the Liberals nor the Bloc are making their gains by anything but default. Neither party has really done anything to warrant a big increase in support.

The party can try to dismiss the polls considering the next election is still more than three years away, but during the years of the Bloc's dominance in Quebec a drop in support of this size would have been a major story. Much of the support the NDP gained in Quebec in the last election is relatively soft - it has to be, considering how quickly it turned from the other parties to the NDP. Waving away the results of these polls does not take anything away from what appears to be discontent among Quebecers with how the NDP has handled their new role in the province. The NDP ignores this discontent at their own peril.

Liberals up, NDP steady, Tories down

Because the next election is more than three years away, four federal polls were released this week amid the heightened tension that the upcoming vote in 45 months has caused.

In all seriousness, though, this spate of new polls does give us a good idea of where Canadians stand as the 2012 political year starts to get going. The implications of these polls are, of course, relatively minor. But getting a bead on the mindset of Canadians is never a meaningless exercise.

Take a look at my article today on The Huffington Post Canada website here for a shorter overview of these polls, what trends they are showing, and what that might mean.

As we rarely get the chance to look at a series of polls taken over so short a time outside of an election campaign, let's examine these four federal surveys (by Abacus Data, Angus-Reid, Harris-Decima, and CROP) side-by-side.

The three Canada-wide polls were taken between January 12 and 22, surveying a total of more than 4,000 Canadians. The dates of the three polls all overlap with one another, except Abacus and Angus. As they both use online panels, that is perhaps a good thing.

The three polls run the gamut of scenarios. Angus-Reid gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, with 39% to the NDP's 28%, while Harris-Decima gives them only a three-point lead, with 32% for the Conservatives and 29% for the New Democrats.

Since Abacus's last poll in early December, the Conservatives have dropped three points to 37%. The NDP has also dropped three points to 28%, while the Liberals are up three points to 21%. Angus-Reid was last in the field in September, and since then the Conservatives are unchanged, the NDP is down one, and the Liberals are up one to 22%.

Harris-Decima has the Tories down two since their early December report, while the NDP is up one and the Liberals are up three.

Though the Liberals don't exactly have the momentum of a runaway freight train ("Why are you so popular?"), this is a positive trend across the board in their favour. The New Democrats appear to be steady, while the Conservatives appear to be slipping.

British Columbia, however, is far less clear. The Conservatives ranged between 30% and 47% in the three polls, putting them either 12 points behind the NDP or 26 points ahead. This is what smaller samples can do.

The New Democrats ranged between 21% and 42%, while the Liberals ranged between 13% and 18%. Angus-Reid has the NDP up 10 points and the Conservatives down nine since August, while Abacus has the Conservatives up one, the NDP down 18, and the Liberals up 11 since December. Harris-Decima also shows wide variation, with the NDP up 11 points and the Conservatives down seven. That is a little too wild to conclude anything definitive, but we can certainly say that the race in British Columbia appears to be solely between the Conservatives and the New Democrats.

Alberta is a little more cut-and-dry, as usual. The Conservatives lead by between 44 and 57 points, with between 61% and 72% support. The New Democrats stand between 10% and 17% while the Liberals have between 11% and 17% support. This is where it gets a little muddier. Most polls have shown the NDP solidly in second in Alberta, but Harris-Decima shows the Liberals in second. Compared to everything else we've seen, that makes it a small outlier.

The Prairies pose another problem, but this is not new. Abacus Data shows the usual Conservative lead and relatively strong NDP showing, while Angus-Reid gives the Prairies to the Tories in a walk and Harris-Decima has a neck-and-neck race. Most recent polls have been between the results of Abacus and Harris-Decima, so we have to consider Angus-Reid to be the outsider on this one.

These are important differences. Angus-Reid would give most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to the Conservatives, while Harris-Decima would actually split the provinces between the NDP and the Tories. This is one of the reasons why I expect Manitoba and particularly Saskatchewan to be more important in 2015 than they have been in a long time.

Ontario is slightly more in line. The Conservatives range between 35% and 42%, the Liberals stand between 29% and 34%, and the NDP between 24% and 26%. This generally jives with what other polls have been showing: the New Democrats are holding on to their gains while the Liberals have eaten into the Conservative lead. This is the major reason why the Liberals have been stronger in recent months.

Since August, Angus-Reid has the Conservatives unchanged at 42%, while the Liberals are up two and the NDP is down two. Since December, Abacus has the Conservatives down five while Harris-Decima has them down one. The Liberals are up four points according to Abacus and three points according to Harris-Decima, while Abacus has the NDP down three and Harris-Decima has them down one. In other words, the trends point to the Conservatives and (to a lesser extent) the NDP slipping in Ontario to the benefit of the Liberal Party.

We have a richer set of data in Quebec as CROP also reported this week with a survey of 1,000 Quebecers, at least twice as many as any other poll in the field. CROP also has the most up-to-date data, as it was in the field between January 19 and 23, overlapping with all three other polls but also stretching later than all of them.

Across the board, the New Democrats are leading with between 29% and 37%. Optimists might point to Abacus's 37% result, but the three other polls are far more in line with what the general trend has been since December.

The Bloc Québécois holds second in three of the four polls with between 21% and 23% support, a very tight grouping. The Conservatives have between 17% and 24% support, while the Liberals are also tightly grouped at between 17% and 19%.

In what direction the NDP is heading is difficult to say. Since August, Angus-Reid has the party down seven points. CROP also has them down seven points since their mid-December survey. But Abacus Data has them up one point since December while Harris-Decima has them up six. It would appear that the most likely situation is that the NDP is holding generally steady in the mid-to-low 30s.

The Bloc, however, seems to be slipping. Though Angus-Reid has them up two points since August, the three others that last reported in December have them either holding steady (CROP) or dropping (four points according to Harris-Decima, five according to Abacus). In any case, it does not seem that the Bloc is making any new gains, contrary to what seemed to have been the case in December.

The Conservatives seem to be holding, with no changes larger than two points since December (positive in the case of Harris-Decima and CROP, negative according to Abacus), while the Liberals have made three to four point gains in CROP and Abacus's polling. Harris-Decima has them down one, however.

This all seems to point to a general status quo in Quebec. That is good news for everyone but the Bloc, as the NDP slide seems to have stopped and both the Conservatives and Liberals are polling above the last election's result.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the New Democrats lead by good margins in two of the three polls, and overall average between 27% and 42%. The Conservatives range between 26% and 30%, while the Liberals stand somewhere between 21% and 34%. With its small sample sizes and tricky three-way race, it is difficult to discern any real trend here. But the NDP has being doing well in the area recently.

Both Abacus Data and Angus-Reid see generally similar situations - a large Conservative minority. Abacus Data's polling would result in 147 Conservatives, 96 New Democrats, 60 Liberals, four Bloc seats, and one Green, using the current 308-seat boundaries. Angus-Reid's numbers would give 150 Conservatives, 101 New Democrats, 50 Liberals, six Bloc MPs, and one Green.

Harris-Decima, on the other hand, shows an extremely weak Conservative minority: 118 Conservative seats, 106 New Democrats, 77 Liberals, six Bloc, and one Green. Undoubtedly, this Conservative government would not last very long.

Broken down regionally, these three polls would give the Conservatives between 11 and 26 seats in British Columbia, with the New Democrats winning between four and 20 and the Liberals between four and five. The Greens win one seat in each of these three polls.

In Alberta, the Conservatives range between 27 and 28 seats, while the New Democrats could win one or none.

The Conservatives win between 12 and 26 seats in the Prairies, with the New Democrats winning between two and 11 and the Liberals between none and five.

In Ontario, the Conservatives range between 48 and 64 seats, the Liberals between 20 and 37 seats, and the NDP between 21 and 22 seats.

In Quebec, the New Democrats range between 39 and 52 seats, the Conservatives between eight and 16 seats, the Liberals between 11 and 13 seats, and the Bloc between four and seven.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals range between nine and 17 seats, the New Democrats between five and 14 seats, and the Conservatives between nine and ten seats.

Taken altogether, the Conservatives range between 116 and 171 seats. This means they could win a majority government with these polls, or could even be replaced by the New Democrats, who range between 72 and 121 seats. I only see a 9% chance of an NDP victory, however.

The Liberals range between 45 and 78 seats, meaning they could potentially form the Official Opposition, while the Bloc ranges between four and seven seats. That keeps them out of official party status.

So what do all of these polls tell us? Generally speaking, Canadians haven't moved too much from where they were in May 2011. If they have moved, outside of Quebec it has been from the Conservatives to the Liberals while inside Quebec it has been from the New Democrats to either the Liberals or the Conservatives. Though it is somewhat more complicated than that, as we seem to have the NDP making gains in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada as well, this is what we're seeing.

But overall, the Liberals and NDP can take the most from these polls. The Liberals are showing signs of life, indicating that a future recovery is possible. The New Democrats are showing staying power, indicating that the next leader will not have to play catch-up, at least outside of Quebec. Of course, the Conservatives are still in control. But they have a majority government and are looking less towards 2015 than the other parties. There is nothing to worry them just yet, but the situations in British Columbia, the Prairies, and Ontario point to the potential for problems when Canadians next cast their ballots.

What happened to the Liberals in Quebec?

As Liberals from across the country gather in Ottawa today for the start of their biennial convention, one question on almost everyone’s lips is whether Bob Rae will eventually turn his interim position as leader into a permanent one.

Few Liberals deny that Rae has done a good job or that, if he chooses to run in the leadership race scheduled to come to a conclusion in early 2013, he would be a good candidate to lead the party into the next election. That he is the best person for the job, however, is far from a consensus opinion.

But more than eight months after the Liberals were handed a drubbing in the last federal election, Bob Rae has undoubtedly kept the Liberal Party’s head above water. Eight months down, 46 more to go.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

A new poll conducted by CROP for L'Actualité was released yesterday, investigating what Quebecers think have been the causes of the poor performances of the Liberal Party in recent elections. The results are interesting.

The most common answer is the one that Liberals themselves seem to have identified as their major problem in the past. Almost one-third, or 30% of Quebecers, said that the main reason for the Liberal decline was that their leaders have not been inspiring.

For party members looking for that next messiah, this would seem to back them up.

But it isn't as simple as that. Another 25% of Quebecers blamed the sponsorship scandal, which is now getting a little long in the tooth. Undoubtedly, these Quebecers know their history - it absolutely was the sponsorship scandal that sent the Liberals on their long trip south in the province. Whether that is still the problem, however, is more difficult to say. The scandal tarnished the Liberal brand in Quebec, and while the scandal itself may not be the reason today that Quebecers are not supporting the Liberals in large numbers, its effects appear to still be haunting the party.

This convention taking place over the next three days is about re-building and renewal, and that is what 14% of Quebecers said the Liberals have not managed to do. Another 12% blamed a lack of clarity the Liberals have had in their proposed policies.

Two per cent said that the Liberals were too left-wing and were trying to resemble the NDP, while 2% said that they were too right-wing and were trying to resemble the Conservatives. Make up your mind!

A last tranche of 15% said they did not know, an opinion that is probably shared by many members at the convention this weekend.

If we look at these another way, and taking out the "don't knows", we get 35% identifying leadership as the problem, 35% identifying policy and communication as the problem, and 30% identifying the sponsorship scandal. That sounds about right. There are more than a few causes of the Liberal decline in Quebec.

And a decline it certainly has been - but not just since the days of the Gomery Inquiry. Liberal support has waxed and waned since then. The Liberals averaged 17% support in Quebec in December. While that was their best result since April 2011, it is still half of where they were in May 2009. In that month, the Liberals averaged 34% support in Quebec and were nipping at the Bloc's heels. In December, the Liberals were fourth in support in the province behind the NDP, Bloc, and Tories, a position they have owned for the last eight months.

The new year

With a new political year on the horizon, each of the parties in the House of Commons could stand to make a few New Year’s resolutions. In addition to encouraging their members to visit the Parliamentary gym more often, here are some of the resolutions each of the parties might want to consider for 2012.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

To some extent, I think we're all still getting used to the new reality that is a majority government here in Ottawa. This year will be Canada's first full year of a sitting majority government since 2003. That isn't to say it will be a quiet year. This spring the federal budget will be tabled and the NDP leadership race will come to an end. In the last few months of 2012 the Liberal Party's leadership race will start rolling, and all of this while provincial elections in Alberta and perhaps Quebec take place, not to mention the election south of the border.

Speaking of which, the Republican primary vote in Iowa looks like it will be an incredibly close one between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. At various times in the last few months, that list was supposed to include Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich, in place of either Paul or Santorum, or both. Meanwhile, in our NDP leadership campaign, it's all a big mystery.

But 2012 will be an important year for almost every party in this country. This is Daniel Paillé's first full year as leader of the Bloc Québécois. The Liberals will be preparing for next year's leadership race. The New Democrats will be choosing the leader who will take them into the 2015 election. The Conservative budget will set the agenda for most of their next few years in government. Could it be the most determinant year on the Hill until 2015?

It will be a big year for ThreeHundredEight, as the projection model goes through more changes and improvements, taking into account more regional data and making what I hope will be better estimations of how the votes will break on election night. Alberta and Quebec (if the latter does indeed go to the polls) should provide their fair share of challenges, what with the Wildrose Party likely to be a major factor throughout the province for the first time in Alberta and the Coalition Avenir Québec being a completely new entity there.

While on the topic of Alberta, which will become the focus of this site as we approach the election period, let's briefly take a look at the story the polls have been telling since January 2010.

It has been a bit of a ride for the Progressive Conservatives, who began 2010 more than 10 points behind Wildrose.

That changed in April 2010 when the Tories moved back in the lead, and that is where they have stayed since. Their numbers were relatively flat until the summer of 2011, when the leadership race galvanized the party. Their levels of support have improved under Alison Redford.

Wildrose, meanwhile, has been on the decline since November 2010. They are still comfortably ensconced in second place, however, holding a double-digit lead over their opposition rivals. But they are far removed from the salad days of late 2009-early 2010.

The Alberta Liberals are also on the decline, and their recent leadership race has not helped them at all. They haven't gotten too close to Wildrose in some time, but until May 2011 they were safely in third place. Since the federal election, however, the Liberals have moved into a tie for third place with the New Democrats, who have seen their levels of support increase slightly. But the likelihood that the NDP could finish third in the 2012 election ahead of the Liberals has more to do with Liberal weakness than it does with NDP strength.

The monthly provincial polling averages chart has been updated to include an Ontario poll by Innovative Research, taken at the end of October and beginning of November. I missed it at the time. The voting intentions results are unchanged from the election, but the poll does have some interesting things to say about why Ontarians voted the way they did. It is also a somewhat confusing slideshow - it looks like a few stray slides from other presentations somehow made their way into it. But it might be worth a look. It seems unlikely that Dalton McGuinty's minority government will fall this year, but at least Ontario gives us the kind of uncertainty that our federal politics used to provide.

NDP up in Ontario, down in Quebec

After a vote that dramatically changed the federal political landscape and elections in half of the country’s provinces, 2012 promises to be a quieter year than 2011. But there are still a few things to keep an eye on over the next 12 months.

You can read the rest of my article on what to watch in 2012 at The Huffington Post Canada here.

But before looking at 2012, let's take a look at what the (likely) last federal poll of 2011 tells us.

For Nanos Research, which was last in the field in mid-November, there hasn't been much change at the national level. The biggest shift has been a 2.5-point drop for the Liberals to 25.6%, putting them behind the Conservatives (36.5%, +0.9) and the New Democrats (28.7%, +1.4). But all of these variations are within the margin of error.

Most of the regional shifts are also within the margin of error, except in Ontario. There, the Conservatives are at 34.5% but the Liberals have slipped seven points to 31.8%. The NDP has taken advantage, gaining 9.9 points to reach 29.5%.

The Conservatives have been on a bit of a downturn in Ontario in Nanos's polling, and this isn't the first poll to put the NDP at a decent amount of support after slipping to the low 20s in September and October.

In Quebec, the New Democrats have dropped again to 33.4%, echoing what other recent polls have shown. The Liberals are second with 22.9%, while the Conservatives stand at 20.8% and the Bloc Québécois at 19.9%. That is Nanos's highest result for the BQ since the election, but is still somewhat lower than what other surveys have suggested. Nevertheless, Nanos has been showing the Bloc on the rise of late.

The race in British Columbia is close, with the Tories at 34.4% and the NDP at 33.2%. The Liberals are up to 22.8%, while in the Prairies the Conservatives are doing quite well, as they are also doing in Atlantic Canada.

On the 308-seat map, the Conservatives would win 135 seats with this level of support. The New Democrats would win 97 seats and the Liberals 74, making them the big gainers. The Greens keep their one seat in British Columbia while the Bloc Québécois is reduced to one seat.

The Tories win 16 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The NDP wins 13 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 26 in Ontario, 49 in Quebec, five in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win six seats in British Columbia, five in the Prairies, 34 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, 13 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

On the 338-seat map (yet to be determined), we're looking at roughly 151 Conservative seats, 104 NDP seats, and 81 Liberal seats.

The year closes with three things to watch in federal polling. Firstly, will Ontario continue to be a close race, will one party move ahead, or will it return to a two-horse contest? Secondly, where is the NDP going in Quebec? And thirdly, who is going to take the lead for good in British Columbia? The battlegrounds and story lines for 2015 may already by forming.