Conservatives lead by nine in new Abacus poll

Two months in and Canadians have no regrets about how they voted in the last federal election.

According to the latest polling results from Abacus Data, the voting intentions of Canadians have changed very little since the vote was last held on May 2nd. 

The poll, conducted between June 23 and 24, found that the Conservatives stand at 41 per cent support, virtually unchanged from the election and Abacus’s last poll held in mid-May.

The New Democrats are also holding steady at 32 per cent support.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website.

My article for The Huffington Post is the first reporting on this poll conducted by Abacus Data. It doesn't show much change, but what is interesting is some of the demographic breakdowns that were provided to me. Check out the article to see what I'm talking about.

In the meantime, how about a seat projection for this poll? Update: A typo, giving the Liberals 17.3% in British Columbia rather than 7.3%, that was input into the seat projection model has been fixed.

With this poll, ThreeHundredEight projects a Conservative majority of 171 seats, with the Official Opposition being formed by the New Democrats at 103 seats.

The Liberals win 28 seats and the Bloc Québécois wins six seats.

The Conservatives win 29 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 67 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and 15 in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats win seven seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 22 in Ontario, 58 in Quebec, and eight in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win two seats in the Prairies, 17 in Ontario, and nine in Atlantic Canada.

This poll completely shoves the Liberals out of Quebec (along with BC). It's a door the Bloc uses to win a couple more seats. But it is a much better poll for the Tories in the province, as though they are still in third behind the Bloc they nevertheless take 22.4% of the vote.

Note that the projection model being used is a mix of the new model for 2015 and the old model for 2011. I'm still working on updating the projection model with all of the results from the last election.

Assessing MP experience inside and outside the political bubble

Experience on a town council, in a legislature or at the cabinet table can certainly come in handy when entrusted with the governance of the country. It is also useful when trying to convince Canadians to hand you and your party the keys to 24 Sussex Drive. But there is something to be said about experience in the private sector, outside of the bubble of municipal, provincial and federal politics. That real-life experience can mean the kind of outside-the-box thinking that may escape a career politician.  

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here. A condensed version with infographic is also in today's print edition of the newspaper.

After last week's piece raised a few hackles, I take a different angle on the experience of Canada's federal politicians. Depending on your perspective, experience outside of the political bubble could be considered a positive thing. Having fewer "career politicians" might mean a less experienced caucus, but it also might mean a more representative caucus.

In the end, hindsight can only tell us whether a particular set of parliamentarians lacking in political experience gave them an advantage or a disadvantage. Rookies can shake things up, and political history has plenty of those kinds of examples. They can also flame out, and history has plenty of examples of that as well.