Mulcair nabs western endorsements

Four candidates picked up major endorsements over the last week as the campaign enters its final stage. Thomas Mulcair made the biggest splash, however, gaining support from a former premier and a slew of party luminaries in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

The biggest name added to Thomas Mulcair's campaign was that of former British Columbia Premier Mike Harcourt, who led the province from 1991 to 1996 and the provincial party from 1987 to 1996. Mulcair also received the endorsements of a great deal of other party members in the province, but none that are recorded in this system.

Saskatchewan also plumped for Mulcair in huge numbers, with four former Saskatchewan MPs (John Burton, Ron Fisher, Vic Althouse, and Ray Funk) recorded in the rankings. Mulcair got the support of several former MLAs as well, some of them former cabinet ministers, but the eight points he gained from these four former MPs should represent his new-found Saskatchewan support well enough.

Brian Topp also landed some important endorsements this past week, gaining the support of the 130,000-strong Communications, Energy, and Paperworkers Union of Canada. He also received the endorsements of Rachel Notley, an NDP MLA from Alberta, and Warren McCall, an NDP MLA from Saskatchewan. These are, to my knowledge, the first provincial legislators from these two provinces to make an endorsement.

Nathan Cullen expanded his support outside of British Columbia with the endorsements of former Ontario MP Lynn McDonald and the current Manitoba Minister for Healthy Living and Seniors, Jim Rondeau.

Finally, Peggy Nash received the support of Ontario MPP Jonah Schein.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the list of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify it.)

Brian Topp has gained 8.8 endorsement points, allowing him to tread water at 29.9% of all currently assigned endorsement points. He remains at the top of the leader board.

Thomas Mulcair has gained 18 endorsement points and has surpassed Peggy Nash to re-take second spot. He now has 24.9% of the points, a gain of 1.5 percentage points since last week. This is his highest share since January 4.

Peggy Nash gained one endorsement point but dropped 0.8 percentage points to 22.6%, her lowest share since January 18.

Paul Dewar did not gain any endorsement points and so dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 13.5%, his lowest mark since January 25.

Nathan Cullen gained 2.5 endorsement points to reach 5.8%, his highest share of the campaign so far, while Niki Ashton dropped to 3.4%. Martin Singh remains without a single endorsement point.

When Forum polled Quebecers recently, they asked who they would like to see as the next leader of the NDP. The result may (not) shock you.

Thomas Mulcair is the choice of 46% of Quebecers, 48% of francophones, 26% of non-francophones, 58% of New Democratic supporters in Quebec, and 82% of decided NDP supporters in the province. He is absolutely dominant, surpassing the "don't knows" in every demographic except non-francophones (49% of them are undecided).

While Brian Topp may very well be doing better among the NDP's membership in the province, he does not pose much of a challenge for the hearts and minds of Quebecers. Though he is within the MOE of the other candidates, he is the consensus second choice with 5% support among Quebecers, 4% among francophones, 9% among non-francophones, 6% among NDP supporters, and 9% among decided NDP supporters.

There is no real third choice, especially considering we're talking about a range of 2% to 4% for the third place finishers in each group. For what it is worth, and it is worth very little, Peggy Nash comes up third or tied for third among all Quebecers, francophones, and decided NDP supporters. Paul Dewar is tied for third among all Quebecers, Nathan Cullen is tied for third among all Quebecers and francophones, and Niki Ashton is third or tied for third among all Quebecers and non-francophones.

Though it seems unlikely that Thomas Mulcair will get the support of as much as 82% of the NDP's 12,000+ members in Quebec, he is probably going to receive a comfortable majority of the province's support. That puts him in a strong position, particularly considering his inroads this week in British Columbia and Saskatchewan, home to 50,000 NDP members. I do believe that the endorsement rankings are correct in making Brian Topp the "establishment" favourite, but Mulcair is probably alone at the top among the members as a whole. There are still a few debates to go and Mulcair's campaign is set to announce another caucus endorsement at noon today. The race continues.

Alberta Tories in driver's seat

CTV released a new poll by ThinkHQ Public Affairs for the Alberta provincial election last week, and it echoes what some other polls have been showing. Also released last week were a few riding polls for Lethbridge, indicating that the Tories are on track to sweep the city after it was closely contested in 2008.

ThinkHQ found that the Progressive Conservatives lead with 42%, 13 points up on Wildrose who trail with 29%.

The New Democrats come in third with 13% while the Liberals are fourth with 12%.

This poll was added to the projection on February 25.

This seems to give further indication that the race in Alberta is much more competitive than some other polls have suggested. Nevertheless, the Progressive Conservatives are very comfortably ahead.

Their widest lead is in Edmonton, where the Tories have 40% support to 20% for Wildrose and the NDP. The Liberals trail with 17%.

The margin between the PCs and Wildrose is only six points in Calgary, with 41% to 35%. The Liberals are third with 14% while the NDP stands at 7% in the city.

I reverse-engineered the results in the rest of Alberta as ThinkHQ did not provide them in their report. By my estimate, this poll would have put the Tories at 45% outside of the two main cities. Wildrose would be at 31%, the NDP at 13%, and the Liberals at 6%. I emphasize that this is an estimate, but it should be correct to within a point or three.

Both Alison Redford and Danielle Smith have net positive approval ratings, with Redford scoring a +21 (53% approval to 32% disapproval) and Smith a +13 (43% approval to 30% disapproval). Brian Mason (-15) and Raj Sherman (-11) have net negative approval ratings.

We've heard from Lethbridge College before. Polls being produced by colleges and universities are wonderfully common in the United States, but unfortunately Lethbridge College seems to be the only Canadian school that regularly puts out polling data. They polled the two ridings in Lethbridge, of note due to Bridget Pastoor's floor-crossing from the Liberals to the Tories in 2011.

The chart compares the results of the Lethbridge polls to the current projections for these ridings. They line-up generally well, and aside from the NDP in Lethbridge East and the "Others" in Lethbridge West are all within the projected ranges. But since the results for the NDP and the Others in these two ridings are not within the ranges, I will be adding this riding poll to the projection. I have not done so yet, so this comparison between poll and projection does not include the riding poll data.

Riding polls are added to the projection to provide a benchmark for adjustments going forward. The projections for Lethbridge East and West will be weighted to partially include this poll, whose data will be adjusted as voting intentions shift at the regional level. In other words, riding polls are not added as a snapshot in time but rather a starting point for further shifts in support.

The poll itself shows that in Lethbridge West the Tories lead with 35.8%, well ahead of the Liberals (24.3%) and the NDP (20.6%). Compared to the 2008 election, however, the Tories are down eight points and the Liberals are down 11. Both Wildrose and the NDP have more than doubled their support, an indication of the changing landscape province-wide.

In Lethbridge East, Pastoor has taken a lot of her support with her to the Tories, as she stands at 45.6% to 23.4% for Wildrose and only 15.3% for the Liberals. The PCs have picked up six points since 2008 while the Liberals are down a whopping 31. But it appears likely that, as a result of Liberals moving over to the Tories, some Tories have moved over to Wildrose - they are up 17 points. The NDP is also up from 6% to 13.4%.

From a projection stand-point, I'm quite pleased that the mechanism I have for estimating the support of floor-crossers has worked so well in Lethbridge East.

Both the ThinkHQ and Lethbridge polls show that the Progressive Conservatives are still very much in control of the situation and that their brand is strong. But it also shows that Wildrose's increase in support is very real - from 7% and 6% in Lethbridge West/East they have gone to 15% and 23%, respectively. If this sort of increase occurs across the board, Wildrose will be able to do very well in ridings in which they have a solid base of support.

What these polls also show is that the race for third is not going well for the Liberals. Provincially they are at risk of dropping behind the NDP in the popular vote, as well as the very real possibility they will be the fourth party in the legislature when the dust settles. Their support in Lethbridge, just one example, has plummeted from 35% and 46% in the two ridings to only 24% and 15%. Considering the margin of error, they also at risk of falling behind the NDP in Lethbridge, after outpacing them by between 25 and 40 points in 2008. The race at the bottom may mark a shift in Alberta politics just as much as the race for the top.