February 2012 Federal Poll Averages

February was a difficult month for the governing Conservatives. It started with questions on Old Age Security and pensions before moving on to the government's internet surveillance legislation and the unfortunate comments in the House of Commons by Public Safety Minister Vic Toews. It then finished with the robo-call allegations. Though two recent polls indicate little change since January, averaging out the results indicates that the Conservatives are slipping.

Three national polls and two Quebec polls were conducted in February, surveying a total of 8,701 Canadians.

The Conservatives dropped 1.9 points to 33.2% in February, their lowest result since November 2010. Aside from a small uptick in January, the Tories have been on a steady decline since September.

The New Democrats were up 0.3 points to 28.1%, while the Liberals dropped 0.3 points to 24.1%. Polling for both the NDP and the Liberals has been relatively steady since October at the national level.

The Greens were up 0.6 points in February to 6.3%, while the Bloc Québécois gained 0.3 points to reach 5.8% nationally.

The New Democrats have dropped for the fourth consecutive month in Quebec, slipping 3.5 points to 26.5%, their lowest point since before the May 2011 election. Remarkably, the NDP has lost 20 points in a matter of only four months. Both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals have benefited, the two parties on a steady increase since the NDP began to plummet in the province. The Bloc picked up 2.1 points to reach 25.8%, their highest total since April 2011, while the Liberals were up 2.9 points to 23.2%, their highest total since November 2010. The Conservatives dropped 0.4 points to 18.7%, generally where they have been for the last four months. The Greens also dropped, falling 1.8 points to 3.8%.

The Conservatives led in Ontario with 36.6%, down 2.2 points since January. The Liberals were down 2.1 points to 29.6%, while the New Democrats were up 1.3 points to 25.5%. The Greens gained 0.6 points to hit 6%. Things have been oscillating up and down in Ontario for the last four months, with no clear trend.

There was very little change in British Columbia, where the Conservatives dropped 0.9 points to 34.6% and the NDP gained 0.8 points to reach 34.3%. The Liberals were down 0.4 points to 20.4% and the Greens were down 0.1 point to 9.2%.

In Alberta, however, the Conservative plummeted 7.4 points to 53.5%, their lowest result since December 2010. The New Democrats picked up 5.4 points and averaged 20.5%, their highest since July 2011. The Liberals were down 1.1 points to 14.2% while the Greens were up 2.2 points to 7.3%.

The New Democrats maintained a slight edge in Atlantic Canada, where the three-way race has been incredibly close over the last three months. The NDP was down 2.9 points to 31.8%, narrowly edging out the Conservatives, who were up 1.8 points since January to 30.9%. The Liberals were down 1.2 points to 29.3%, while the Greens were up 0.2 points to 5.8%.

Finally, the Conservatives and New Democrats hit their extremes in the Prairies. The Tories were down 7.2 points to 40%, the lowest result I have on record since at least January 2009. The NDP is at their highest on record since that time, gaining 3.6 points to hit 35%. The Liberals were up 2.3 points to 18.2% and the Greens were up 0.6 points to 5.9%.

In an election held in February, the Conservatives win 133 seats, down four seats since their projected total in January. The Liberals win 75 (+6), while the NDP wins 74 (-17). The Bloc Québécois wins 25 seats, up 15, while the Greens still win one.

That is quite a change in the landscape, with the Liberals narrowly edging out the NDP for the Official Opposition role. The two parties, along with the Greens, could only combine for 150 seats, five short of a majority.

The Conservatives win 17 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 13 in the Prairies, 52 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win five seats in British Columbia, five in the Prairies, 30 in Ontario, 21 in Quebec, 13 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 13 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 10 in the Prairies, 24 in Ontario, 18 in Quebec, seven in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

In a 338-seat House, the Conservatives would likely win 149 seats (increasing their share from 43.2% to 44.1%). The New Democrats and Liberals would each win 81 seats (a decrease from 24.4% to 24% for the Liberals, unchanged for the NDP at 24%), and the Bloc Québécois 26. Again, a combination of NDP, Liberal, and Green seats would still be short of a majority.

Proponents of NDP expansion in the West should be happy with this result. The party is neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in British Columbia, on the brink of winning an extra seat or two in Alberta, and challenging the Tories for hegemony in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. But victories in the West are worth little if the party loses 40 seats in Quebec and makes no serious gains in Ontario. It will be a difficult balancing act for the NDP if they want to form government - an act the Conservatives do not need to attempt.

Conservatives hold steady

Nanos Research reports today that support for the Conservatives hasn't changed a bit over the last month, despite allegations of impropriety during the last federal election.

Just how successful might this impropriety have been? My article for The Globe and Mail today shows that it might not have been very successful.

You can also read my article for The Huffington Post Canada on this Nanos poll and the recent EKOS poll here.

Before getting to the Nanos poll, a few words on my article for the Globe. I've already seen a lot of comments emphasizing the point made in the headline, that turnout was higher in allegedly robo-called ridings than in other ridings. But the most interesting aspect of my analysis, at least in my view, is further down the page, seemingly confirming my fear that too many people only read the headline and the first paragraph before coming to a conclusion about what an article says.

The point I make is that turnout was higher, yes, but likely because the ridings allegedly targeted are competitive. The margin of victory in the robo-call ridings was roughly half of the margin of victory in other ridings. So while this might not tell us whether this alleged tactic was successful or not, it does appear to suggest why these ridings were allegedly targeted.

That might not come as a surprise, but I always find it interesting to provide numbers to what is a generally perceived notion. It is more interesting to disprove that generally perceived notion - early reports of the scandal said that turnout was lower in targeted ridings. That does not seem to be the case.

Now to this Nanos poll. It shows that the Conservatives are unchanged since Nanos was last in the field January 20-23. They still have the support of 35.7% of Canadians.

The Liberals are up 1.9 points to 29.5% while the New Democrats are down 0.2 points to 25%.

The Bloc Québécois stands at 4.9% national support. The Greens are down 1.1 points to 3.4%.

As I mention in the Huffington Post article, Nanos has often registered Liberal support higher than other pollsters. That does not mean they are wrong (the others might be wrong, or the truth somewhere in the middle), but it does reduce the significance of the Liberals placing second and the NDP third. The polls do not consistently show this to be the case, so at the very least we can say that the race for second is probably tight.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia with 41.1% (+0.1), trailed by the Liberals at 28.2% (+7) and the NDP at 23.1% (-5.4). The Greens are fourth with 6.2%, down 1.9 points since the end of January.

The Tories also lead in Atlantic Canada with 45.6%, up 16.1 points. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 33.3% while the NDP is down 14.9 points to 20.3%. Wild swings like this, combined with the small sample, make the meaning of these numbers relatively low.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives have 48.2% support (+0.2), well ahead of the NDP (24.4%, -1.5) and the Liberals (20.6%, +0.1).

The Liberals lead in Ontario with 37.8% (+2.7), thanks to a big 6.2-point slip by the Conservatives to 35.9%. The NDP is third with 21.9%, up five points.

The New Democrats lead in Quebec with 32.6%, up 3.6 points. There is some inconsistency among the pollsters as to whether the NDP is on the uptick or the downswing. This suggests that the NDP is generally stable somewhere around 30%. The Liberals are second in Quebec with 26.8% (+0.3), edging out the Bloc Québécois at 20.9% (-3.2) and the Conservatives at 15.8% (+0.7).

With these numbers, the Conservatives would win 136 seats. They would likely be toppled by the Liberals and the New Democrats, who combine for 167 seats. But in contrast to some other polls, this one results with the Liberals at the top of the duo with 86 seats to the NDP's 81. The Bloc Québécois would win four seats and the Greens one.

The Conservatives win 22 seats in British Columbia, 25 in Alberta, 17 in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 18 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win eight seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 43 in Ontario, 18 in Quebec, nine in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win five seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 17 in Ontario, 46 in Quebec, five in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

With the House increasing to 338 seats by 2015, a rough estimate ups the Conservative total to 152 seats, with the Liberals winning 95, the NDP 86, the Bloc four, and the Greens one. The Conservatives and Liberals benefit from the extra seats, with the Conservative portion of the House increasing from 44.2% to 45% and the Liberal portion from 27.9% to 28.1%. The NDP portion falls from 26.2% to 25.4%.

In Nanos's Leadership Index (a combination of percentages on the questions of trust, competence, and vision), Stephen Harper tops the list with 102.4 points, compared to 54.4 for Bob Rae, 24.6 for Elizabeth May (rocketing up to third!), 20.3 for Nycole Turmel, and 11.7 for Daniel Paillé.

If we change those into percentages of the total, we get 48% for Harper, 25% for Rae, 12% for May, 10% for Turmel, and 5% for Paillé. If we took those as "Best PM" results, it would be pretty plausible at this point.

This poll points to stability - not exactly the replacement of the NDP as the Opposition by the Liberals. Nanos's last poll also showed that. In today's volatile climate, this lack of change is somewhat surprising. It will be more surprising if this persists straight through to the NDP leadership convention and the budget at the end of March.