PQ on cusp of majority

A new poll by Léger Marketing for Le Devoir and the Montreal Gazette was released over the weekend, showing strong gains for the Parti Québécois at the expense of the Coalition Avenir Québec. It puts the PQ in range of a majority government.

Léger was last in the field February 10-12, and since then the Parti Québécois has vaulted into first with a four point gain. They now lead with 33%.

The Liberals are down one point to 28%, while the CAQ is down four points to 24%.

Québec Solidaire is down two points to 6%, while the Greens hold firm at 4%. Option Nationale scored 2% in their first outing in Léger's polling.

This is a big rebound for the PQ, a party that was written off earlier this year. The CAQ is dropping very quickly, while Québec Solidaire also appears to be taking a step backwards as the PQ's fortunes rise. The multitude of parties on the left and supporting sovereignty does not appear to be hurting the PQ much, as the vote that can be divided has grown: support for the PQ, QS, and ON stands at a combined 41%, while it stood at 37% in early February.

The Parti Québécois leads among francophones with 40%, up five points since Léger's last poll. The CAQ trails with 26%, down six points, while the Liberals are up one to 20%. That is an important lead for the PQ among a key demographic.

The PQ also leads in Quebec City with 33%, up 11 points. That is somewhat unusual for the PQ, which usually trails the Liberals and the CAQ in the capital. The Liberals scored 27% (-5), while the CAQ dropped seven points to only 25% in what is supposed to be their fortress.

In the part of the province outside Montreal and Quebec City, the Parti Québécois is ahead with 41% (+4) to 25% (-5) for the CAQ and 22% (+2) for the Liberals.

For their part, the Liberals lead among non-francophones with 61%, down five points since early February. The CAQ is up six points to 19%, while the Greens are at 6%.

The Liberals also lead in the Montreal region with 34% (-1) to 26% (+3) for the Parti Québécois and 24% (-1) for the CAQ. That narrow gap between the PQ and the CAQ means that François Legault's party should have a competitive edge off the island, as the PQ does better on it.

With these levels of support, the Parti Québécois wins 62 seats, one short of a majority. But there are enough close ridings and the party holds enough of an edge in the francophone electorate that a majority is also a very good possibility.

The Liberals win 36 seats and the CAQ wins 25, while two go to Québec Solidaire.

The Parti Québécois wins 13 seats in and around Montreal, six in Quebec City, and 43 in the rest of Quebec.

The Liberals win 31 seats in and around Montreal, one in Quebec City, and four in the rest of Quebec.

The CAQ wins 12 seats around Montreal, four in Quebec City, and nine in the rest of Quebec.

Québec Solidaire wins its two seats in Montreal.

The PQ's dominance outside the two main cities is what hands them their victory. Aside from a few pockets of Liberal resistance in the Outaouais and by the CAQ in the Centre-du-Québec and the Beauce, the PQ sweeps the régions of the province. But the Liberals are very much a force to be reckoned with in Montreal and in a few parts of the outlying suburban areas, while the CAQ is well placed to win seats south and especially north of Montreal. The PQ's massive edge outside of Montreal means that they only have to be somewhat competitive in and around the city in order to win enough seats to put them over the top.

And Pauline Marois is no longer weighing them down. Disgruntled PQ MNAs and members wanted her head, but she is now seen as the best person to be premier by 25%, up 14 points since early February. Jean Charest and François Legault have both slipped to 21%. Even the number of people who say "none of the above" or "I don't know" has fallen from 41% to only 27%.

These are excellent numbers for the Parti Québécois, unthinkable only a few weeks ago. The party is also on the upswing while the Liberals are stagnant and the CAQ is dropping. But Quebec is very volatile at the moment, and things could swing dramatically once again. Charest is still within range of being about to pull victory from the jaws of defeat, but his numbers among francophone voters (i.e., 80% of Quebecers) are just too weak. As I've seen mentioned elsewhere, if they jump a little he may pull the plug on his government.

NDP back in first in Quebec

A new poll by Forum Research shows that, despite the robocall allegations and indications that more Canadians blame the Conservatives for the alleged calls than any other party, support remains unchanged at the national level. But in Quebec, the New Democrats have moved back into first place after languishing in second or even third in Forum's polling.

You can read my article about what this new Forum poll says about the robocall allegations at The Huffington Post Canada here.
Forum Research was last in the field on February 6, and since then the Conservatives have gained one point. They now lead with 37% support.

The New Democrats are unchanged at 28% while the Liberals have slipped one point to 25%.

The Bloc Québécois is down one to 5% and the Greens are up one to 4%.

Forum made two very welcome improvements to their polling, at least in this report. Alberta has split off from the Prairies and the poll was taken over two days instead of over one. Hopefully, Forum will continue to conduct and report its findings in this manner.

The most noteworthy regional shift in this poll is in Quebec, where the NDP has picked up six points (since Forum's Quebec-only February 23 poll) and leads once again with 28%. They are trailed by the Liberals, unchanged at 26%, and the Bloc Québécois, down six points to 23%. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are up one point to 18%.

The Conservatives lead in every other region of the country. In Ontario, they are down four points to 38% while the NDP is up five points to 29% to tie the Liberals, who are unchanged from last month.

In British Columbia, the Conservative have picked up eight points and now lead with 40%. The New Democrats stand at 31% (-8) and the Liberals at 17% (-7). The Greens get their best result here with 11% support, up six points.

The Conservatives lead with 69% in Alberta, followed by the NDP (16%) and the Liberals (11%), while they hold a narrow lead in Atlantic Canada with 35% (+2) to the NDP's 33% (unchanged) and the Liberals' 29% (+1).

And in the Prairies, the Conservatives have 47% support to 27% for the Liberals and 25% for the NDP. That is a bit of an odd result, as in most polls the Liberals have been languishing in third in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

With these levels of support, the Conservatives win 149 seats, six short of a majority. The New Democrats win 77 seats and the Liberals win 70, giving them a combined 147 seats, two short of the Tories. The Bloc Québécois wins 11 seats while the Greens win one.

The Conservatives win 20 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 56 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 11 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 24 in Ontario, 32 in Quebec, six in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, five in the Prairies, 26 in Ontario, 22 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

In a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives win 166 seats, only four short of a majority. Their share of all seats increases from 48.4% to 49.1%.

The NDP wins 83 seats, its share decreasing from 25% to 24.6%, while the Liberals win 76 seats, their share decreasing from 22.7% to 22.5%.

This is the first poll in a little while to show the Conservatives so close to a majority. Another feature of recent polling is that the New Democrats and Liberals are no longer in a position to outnumber the Conservatives, and especially to form a majority on their own. This is partly the fault of the Bloc Québécois. Though their support is still stuck at around where it was in May 2011, they are doing much better relative to the New Democrats. The seven extra seats they win in this poll make a big difference - hand them to the NDP and a combination of Liberal, Green, and NDP seats would total 154, or half of the House.

What is perhaps most surprising is that support for the Conservatives is rock solid, despite the allegations flying about. Can the Tories sail through another bit of bad news unscathed, or is this the calm before the storm?