Satisfaction with Trudeau remains high; Manitoba NDP in third

Nanos's weekly 'best prime minister' tracking continues to wobble back and forth, with Justin Trudeau now back up to 53.1%, compared to 12.7% for Tom Mulcair and 11.3% for Rona Ambrose. Early days, of course, but that wobble seems to only be happening for Trudeau. Mulcair is holding steady but Ambrose has yet to experience her numbers rising from one week to the next.

Elizabeth May had 5.1% and Rhéal Fortin had 1.2%.

More relevant poll than who would be the best person for a job that Trudeau has for the next four years is a Nanos survey asking about Canadians' satisfaction with what the Trudeau government has been doing. The results are good for the Liberals: 67% of Canadians are satisfied or somewhat satisfied with what the Trudeau government has done so far. Just 28% were dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied.

Satisfaction was highest in Atlantic Canada (79%) and British Columbia (74%), and was lowest in Alberta and the Prairies (57%).

Manitoba NDP drops to third place

Greg Selinger's New Democrats got a lump of coal on Boxing Day when the Winnipeg Free Press published the latest results from Probe Research. The numbers were ugly.

The PCs, who have been holding steady pretty much since the last election, were leading with 43%, followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at just 22%. Those are the best and worst numbers for the Liberals and NDP respectively for a very long time — Probe Research, operating for the last two decades, has never had the NDP in third.

And it gets worse from there. The NDP is trailing in Winnipeg with 29% to 35% for the Tories (the Liberals also have 29%). Only in the core part of Winnipeg does the NDP have a lead. Everywhere else around the city the PCs are in front, and in most parts it is the Liberals that are in second.

The PCs also look set to virtually sweep the area outside of Winnipeg (53% to 29% for the Liberals and 13% for the NDP).

So things are looking good for the PCs in the upcoming April election. Coupled with Brad Wall's likely victory in neighbouring Saskatchewan in that province's April election, right-of-centre parties might have their first victories in three years in 2016. I wrote about what could be a fleeting conservative comeback for the CBC today.

Divided vote boosting PC chances in western Manitoba

A poll published in the Brandon Sun by Probe Research shows just how much trouble the Manitoba New Democrats are in, with four months to go before voting day in the province.

The poll shows that the NDP's support in western Manitoba has dropped by more than half, from 41% to 18%. Virtually all of that has gone to the Manitoba Liberals, who have risen from 4% to 22%. The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, have not seen their vote change at all: they took 53% of the vote here in the 2011 provincial election, and are now polling at 54%.

This is the developing story of the Manitoba election, that the PCs will almost win by default as the NDP loses a huge share of its vote to the Liberals. Look at the regional breakdown in the Probe poll.

Brandon West and Brandon East were relatively close PC-NDP races in 2011, with the NDP prevailing in Brandon East. Now, with hardly any movement on the part of the PCs, the Tories are well in front in Brandon West and narrowly ahead of the Liberals in Brandon East. Considering that the Liberals are not likely to have the sort of organization they will need in this election (they won 7.5% of the vote and one seat in 2011), it will be difficult to get out all of the vote to win a riding like Brandon East — further boosting the PCs chances.

In the rural parts of western Manitoba, the PCs are even less likely to be challenged. But even there, in Parkland the margin was just 14 points in 2011. Now, with the PCs down two points, the margin is 29 points.

How bad are Selinger's polling numbers?

Amid calls for his resignation emanating from within his own cabinet, Greg Selinger is determined to stay on as Premier of Manitoba. The calls come on the heels of poor polling numbers, as NDP MLAs in the province fear for their job security. So just how bad are Selinger's poling numbers?

They aren't great. But they may be getting better.

Two polls have been done in the province within the last month, both showing relatively similar results. The older survey, from Winnipeg-based Probe Research, put the Progressive Conservatives under Brian Pallister at 42%, down three points from where the party stood in Probe's June poll. The New Democrats were down two points to 30%, while the Liberals under Rana Bokhari were up four points to 20%. Support for the Greens and other parties was 8%.

Insightrix was in the field more recently, polling between October 7-17. It found the PCs to have the support of 46% of Manitobans, down three points from the polling firm's last survey of January-February. The New Democrats were up five points to 29%, while the Liberals were down two points to 16%.

Certainly, those are poor polling numbers for an incumbent government. After 15 years, voters in the province may be ready to turn the page.

Selinger's decision to increase the PST after pledging not to in the 2011 provincial election has been a major contributing factor to the NDP's slide. The party dropped behind the PCs at the end of 2012, and there has been no looking back.

Monthly polling averages

As you can see in the chart above, this is a stark change in fortunes from where the party had been prior to 2012. The NDP and PCs would routinely trade the lead back and forth, but for the last two years the NDP has fallen well behind.

And it isn't due to a surge in PC support. The Tories have held relatively steady through it all, and have not seen their support move much in either direction for the last four years. Instead, the Liberals have eaten into the NDP's support, moving from the low-teens to around 20%. The Greens have also upticked a little, dragging the New Democrats down into a position where re-election is an unlikely prospect.

The seat projections for these two polls make for depressing reading for Manitoba New Democrats. With Probe's slightly more positive numbers, Pallister would still win 33 seats and form a majority government, with the NDP at 18 seats and the Liberals with six (the party's best performance since 1990). With the wider gap measured by Insightrix, the Tories would win 38 seats (outpacing their historical best), with the New Democrats at 15 and the Liberals with four. With the high support recorded for the Greens, a seat for them would not be completely out of the question.

Dire straits indeed for the NDP, but the picture might actually be getting rosier. From around December 2013 to February 2014, the party appears to have hit rock bottom. Polling by Probe and Insightrix done during that time gave the NDP an average of just 25% support, against 48.5% for the PCs and 19% for the Liberals. A spread like that would be enough to give the Tories as many as 42 seats, with just nine going to the NDP and six to the Liberals. With a margin like that, a third-place finish for the NDP in the seat count would even be possible.

Today, however, it appears the NDP has rebounded a little, averaging 29.5% across these two polls against 44% for the Tories and 18% for the Liberals. A gain of around five points in 10 months is nothing to sneeze at, but the party has a long way to go before re-election becomes more than just a hope.

Would Selinger's departure help matters? The most recent poll by Angus Reid, conducted at the end of August and in early September, put Selinger's approval rating at just 30%, roughly even with his own party. But that compared favourably to the 26% to 28% approval rating he managed between May 2013 and June 2014.

So the New Democrats in Manitoba may be experiencing a bit of a rebound from the catastrophic numbers of the last year. But the odds are still stacked overwhelmingly against them.

Parsing the Prairies and Atlantic Canada

Polls in Canada generally look at six regions in the country. Four of them are provinces: British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec. The other two are regions, grouping together Saskatchewan and Manitoba to form the Prairies and New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador to form Atlantic Canada. This makes sense, since these two regions have a smaller population than does Alberta - samples for each province are generally too small from which to draw any useful conclusions. But this amalgamation of these six provinces into two regions masks some significant differences.

The current polling averages give the Conservatives 39% in the Prairies against 33% for the Liberals and 22% for the New Democrats. That suggests a competitive two-way race, with the NDP well behind. But the reality is that Manitoba is shaping up to be a very interesting Liberal-Conservative contest, with the NDP trying to hold on to its enclaves in Winnipeg. And with the new riding boundaries, Saskatchewan is a competitive NDP-Conservative race, particularly in Saskatoon and Regina.

Atlantic Canada is looking like a Liberal landslide. The averages give the party 56% support to just 21% for the Conservatives and 19% for the New Democrats. But again that is misleading - the Liberals are doing well throughout the region, but are facing off against the New Democrats in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.

Let's try and see what the polls can tell us about these regions.

Prairies

First, we'll start with a simple uniform swing between the 2011 election results and the current polling averages to try and figure out how the parties are doing in these six provinces. For the Prairies, we get the following results:

SK: CPC 41%, LPC 29%, NDP 25%, GPC 4%
MB: CPC 38%, LPC 37%, NDP 19%, GPC 5%

This would suggest that the Conservatives hold a comfortable lead in Saskatchewan but are almost tied with the Liberals in Manitoba. And in both provinces, the NDP has fallen to third place.

How does this match up with the polls? In Manitoba, there have been two large sample surveys done in the last few months. A Sept. 19-28 poll by Probe Research surveying 1,002 Manitobans found the Tories ahead with 42% to 32% for the Liberals and 22% for the NDP. A Jan. 16-Feb. 3 poll by Insightrix Research surveying 800 Manitobans found similar results: 44% for the Conservatives, 34% for the Liberals, and 16% for the NDP.

This would suggest that the uniform swing is somewhat understating Conservative support and overstating support for the Liberals, with the NDP about right.

Saskatchewan is more complicated, however, since we do not have any large polls from the province. What we do have are EKOS Research's four polls conducted between Oct. 10 and Jan. 27, giving us a total sample of 193 responses (the individual polls averaged just 48 responses, which carries a margin of error of +/- 14%). If we average those polls out according to sample size, we get 39% for the Conservatives, 31% for the Liberals, and 18% for the NDP. That matches the uniform swing calculations quite closely, at least for the two frontrunners.

But it shouldn't. If the uniform swing is overstating Liberal support in Manitoba and understating Conservative support in the province, it follows that the opposite must be occurring in Saskatchewan. This would suggest that the race is actually closer in Saskatchewan than the EKOS polling and uniform swing estimate would suggest.

That is hard to swallow, considering that the Liberals took just 9% of the vote in Saskatchewan in 2011. Polling done by Nanos Research between Aug. 12-19 and surveying 156 Saskatchewanians gave the Liberals just 25% support in the province, against 30% for the NDP and 41% for the Conservatives (an EKOS poll of 86 people in the province in early July found similar numbers). This is a more intuitive result.

From this, we can conclude that Manitoba is indeed a Liberal and Conservative contest, which the by-election results in November back-up. Saskatchewan is more of a mystery, however. It would be helpful to have some more data for the province - a province that will be an interesting one to watch in 2015.

Atlantic Canada

Let's do the same uniform swing calculations for Atlantic Canada and see what we get:

NB: LPC 50%, CPC 27%, NDP 19%, GPC 4%
NS: LPC 56%, NDP 20%, CPC 19%, GPC 5%
PEI: LPC 68%, CPC 24%, NDP 5%, GPC 3%
NL: LPC 65%, NDP 22%, CPC 11%, GPC 2%

This shows how the Liberals are doing well throughout the region, with the Conservatives most competitive in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island and the NDP in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

It is more difficult to assess these calculations because we have seen few polls from the individual provinces in recent months. The Corporate Research Associates released their last set of federal data almost a year ago, from their May 8-30 poll. At the time, CRA pegged regional support at 49% for the Liberals, 24% for the Conservatives, and 24% for the NDP. Not too different from the current levels of support.

In that poll, the only major differences from the uniform swing calculations above were that the NDP was second in New Brunswick and PEI, and the Conservatives were second in Nova Scotia. Support for the NDP was also considerably higher in Newfoundland and Labrador, at 32%.

If we apply a uniform swing from the CRA poll in May 8-30 to the current averages, we get a different picture:

NB: LPC 50%, NDP 24%, CPC 21%
NS: LPC 59%, CPC 26%, NDP 11%
PEI: LPC 67%, CPC 14%, NDP 13%
NL: LPC 56%, NDP 27%, CPC 16%

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. For the Liberals, it makes little difference - they are at majority support throughout the region. But it does make a difference for the Conservatives and New Democrats. It puts the Tories between 21% and 27% in New Brunswick against 19% to 24% for the NDP. It gives the Conservatives between 19% and 26% in Nova Scotia, with the NDP at between 11% and 20%. In Prince Edward Island, the Conservatives have between 14% and 24% support to between 5% and 13% for the NDP, while the Conservatives sit with between 11% and 16% in Newfoundland and Labrador. The NDP would be between 22% and 27% there. These numbers mean the difference between defeat and re-election for more than a few incumbents.

It would be helpful if CRA reported federal numbers for the region more often, particularly since their overall regional numbers tend to match other polls quite closely. Without that extra data, however, this exercise gives a good idea of why it is better to keep the Prairies and Atlantic Canada as large regions in my own estimations rather than try to guess at the support each party holds in the six individual provinces.

Manitoba PCs hold widening lead

Released between Christmas and New Year's, the latest polling numbers out of Manitoba may have been over-looked. The New Democrats should hope they were, because they were horrible. Probe Research shows Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservatives holding a gaping 22-point lead over the governing NDP. No party has won an election by such a margin in over 60 years.

Probe was last in the field for the Winnipeg Free Press in September, and since that poll they have recorded a five-point increase for the Tories. They now lead with 48%, while the New Democrats have dropped three points to 26%. The Liberals held steady at 20%, while 6% of respondents would vote for another party (mostly the Greens).

Of note is the large number of undecideds: 22%. That is a nine-point increase over the last two polls from Probe. Because of that, the shifts in support since September for any of the parties among decided voters do not seem statistically significant, though the increase in undecideds certainly is.

These numbers are remarkable since they represent the best and worst results for the PCs and NDP, respectively, in many years. In the space of 12 months, the NDP has shed 13 points of support. The Liberals have benefited, picking up nine points. The PCs have gained six.

It has put them in a strong position. They Tories led by 22 points among men and 20 points among women, while they were ahead in all age groups, education levels, and income brackets.

The party is also in front in Winnipeg, with 41% to 29% for the NDP (down seven points since September). The Liberals ran a strong third in the capital with 23%. The PCs were in front in every part of Winnipeg except the downtown core, where the NDP remains in front.

In the rest of the province, the Tories led with 58% to 21% for the NDP and 15% for the Liberals.

With these levels of support, the Progressive Conservatives would win a landslide with 42 seats to just nine for the NDP and six for the Liberals.

Almost all of the NDP and Liberal seats would come in the capital, while the Tories would sweep all of southern, rural Manitoba.

These are striking numbers, particularly since elections in Manitoba tend to be close affairs. As mentioned at the outset, no party has won an election by such a large margin as 22 points since 1953, so it follows that these numbers would produce an unusual result (but recall that the model correctly called 56 of 57 ridings in the 2011 election).

Nine seats would be the worst result for the New Democrats since the 1962 election, six would be the best result for the Liberals since 1990, and 42 seats for the Tories would be the best performance by any party in the province's history.

One imagines, then, that this could be rock-bottom for Greg Selinger's NDP and that they have nowhere to go but up. The Liberals have a new leader in Rana Bokhari, but she is not well known and it seems unlikely that she will replace the NDP as the alternative to the Tories. Pallister is in an enviable position, especially in facing a government that has been in power for 15 years and will have been in power by 16 or 17 years by the time Manitobans are next called to the polls.

Manitoba Tories move in front

Brian Pallister became the new leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives in 2012 and he ended the year on a high, with a Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press giving his party the edge over the governing New Democrats. Even so, he'd still lose an election with these results.

Probe was last in the field Sept. 19-Oct. 14, and since then the Progressive Conservatives picked up five points to hit 43%. That gave them a four-point advantage over the New Democrats, who were down six points to 39%.

Both of these shifts were outside of the telephone survey's margin of error. For the NDP, this is the first time they have registered below 40% support since March 2011.

The Liberals were unchanged at 11% and support for other parties (primarily the Greens) was up one point to 7%.

The Tories had the advantage among men (47% to 36%) but the NDP was up among women (43% to 39%). The PCs also had the edge among Manitobans between the ages of 18 and 34 and over 55, those with some post-secondary education or less, and those who make between $30,000 and $60,000. The New Democrats were up among people aged 35-54, those with a post-secondary degree, and those who make $30,000 or less. The two parties were generally even among Manitobans with an income of $60,000 or more.

Electorally, however, this means very little. Because of the geography of Manitoba's ridings and the stark difference in voting intentions between Winnipeg and the rest of the province, the Progressive Conservatives would still lose an election by a wide margin on these numbers.

This is primarily due to the New Democrats' resilient lead in Winnipeg, where they were up by 19 points. They had 50% support to 31% for the Tories. The Liberals were third with 13%. That gives the NDP the command of most of the city's 31 ridings.

The Tories have the advantage in the province's remaining 26 ridings, but 31>26. The Progressive Conservatives were up 15 points since Sept.-Oct. in the rest of Manitoba and led with 61%, with the NDP dropping 12 points to 23%. The Liberals were at only 9% support.

With these province-wide numbers, the New Democrats would still win 34 seats to the Tories' 21. The Liberals would manage two seats, both in Winnipeg.

The NDP would win 23 of their seats in Winnipeg, while the PCs would win 15 of theirs outside of it. But this projection is based on province-wide numbers only (though that didn't hurt the Oct. 2011 final projection, which had an accuracy of 98.2%). With the yawning gap between the NDP and the PCs in Winnipeg and between the PCs and NDP outside of the capital, it is likely that the results would be even more lop-sided between the two regions. In the end, though, the New Democrats would still easily walk away with another majority government.

What might it take for the Progressive Conservatives to defeat the New Democrats without any disproportionate increase in support in Winnipeg? Assuming the Liberals and Greens remain unchanged and the swing between the Tories and NDP is uniform throughout the province, the PCs would need to have about 47% support to 35% for the NDP (a 12-point margin) to win an outright majority.

Clearly, if Brian Pallister wants to become the next premier of Manitoba he will have to woo Winnipeggers in particular. If his party is not able to make a breakthrough in the capital, and instead piles up larger majorities in rural Manitoba, the New Democrats could continue to govern the province even with a big deficit in the popular vote.

Manitoba NDP extends lead

After Alberta's mindbogglingly long 41-year old PC dynasty, the government that has ruled the longest in Canada is Manitoba's: the New Democrats have been in power since 1999. Though things remain relatively close in this virtual two-party province, the NDP is still in a strong position despite 13 years in office.

Probe Research was last in the field June 6-29, and since then the New Democrats picked up one point to hit 45% support. That gave them a seven-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives, who were down two points to 38%.

The Liberals were down two points to 11% while the other parties (in this case, primarily the Greens) were up three points to 6%.

Aside from the doubling in support for the other parties, none of these shifts were statistically significant. But the numbers are not heading in the right direction for new PC leader Brian Pallister.

The NDP lead is magnified by their dominance in Winnipeg, where most of the province's seats are located. The New Democrats led with 52% in the city, followed by the Tories at 32% and the Liberals at 11%, representing a drop of five points. In the rest of Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives dropped seven points to 46% and were trailed by the NDP at 35%, the Liberals at 10%, and other parties at 9% (a gain of six points).

The New Democrats also lead among both men and women and in all age groups and income brackets. The only demographic with a PC advantage (and that edge is only by two points) is among Manitobans with a high school education or less. The NDP leads among those with college or university degrees.

With this advantage in almost every segment of the Manitoban population, and particularly with their wide lead in Winnipeg, the New Democrats would cruise to another majority victory if an election were held today.

In fact, because of the way the vote splits between the city and the rest of the province, the NDP's seven point lead is overkill. The party could easily win even if they trailed the Progressive Conservatives province-wide by a few points. This gives them a tremendous advantage in any election. As Winnipeg goes, so does the Manitoba legislature.

And with these numbers, the NDP would win 37 seats to 18 for the Tories and two for the Liberals, almost unchanged from the current breakdown. The NDP would sweep the north and win 25 of the 31 seats in the capital, while the Tories would win 14 of 22 seats in southern Manitoba.

Unlike in most provinces, though, both the Premier and the opposition leader have positive approval ratings. 

Greg Selinger's are actually quite outstanding for a sitting premier: he has the approval of 50% of Manitobans, compared to 29% who disapprove of him.

Pallister still has to become better known by Manitobans, as almost half of respondents were not sure of what they thought of him. But 33% said they approved and only 19% disapproved, an almost identical proportion to Selinger's numbers when the undecideds are removed.

Liberal leader Jon Gerrard, who is on his way out but will only be replaced in October 2013, had a more mixed result. While 33% approved of Gerrard, 35% disapproved and another 32% were not sure. But Gerrard has led the party since 1998 and has represented his riding since 1999. So far, no big names are lining up to replace him. The prospects of a Liberal revival in Manitoba, then, seem quite low.

And that makes the challenge Pallister faces all the more difficult. Though his party would undoubtedly also lose some of their supporters to a revived Manitoba Liberal Party, historically the NDP has been hit hardest by stronger Liberal numbers. Pallister needs to whittle down NDP support in Winnipeg if he is to win, and if the Liberals continue to slide in the province his chances of doing that will slide as well.

Tories fall in Manitoba without McFadyen

We're in the summer doldrums of polling, so what better time to catch-up on some provincial results that fell through the cracks. In this case, a poll by Probe Research on the voting intentions of Manitobans, who were last called to the polls in October. The Manitoba-based firm finds that both the governing New Democrats and opposition Progressive Conservatives have taken a step backwards to the benefit of the third-place Liberals.

Probe was last in the field Mar. 19-Apr. 4, and since then the New Democrats picked up four points to hit 44%, only a few ticks below their 2011 election result and a drop in support within their margin of error.

The Progressive Conservatives, however, were down five points to 40%, a statistically significant drop. The Liberals made up the difference, gaining three points to reach 13% while other parties (primarily the Greens, though Probe does not specifically report their results) were up two points to 3%.

The province remains regionally and demographically divided between the two main parties. The Tories were ahead among men by five points while the New Democrats were up among women by 11. The New Democrats had the edge among people aged 18-54, those with a post-secondary education, and voters who make less than $59,000 per year or more than $100,000. The PCs, on the other hand, got the nod from the oldest Manitobans, high-school educated voters, and those who earn between $60,000 and $99,000 per year.

Regionally, the New Democrats held the lead in Winnipeg with 49% (+1). This puts them well ahead of the Tories, who trailed with 32% (-3). The Liberals were up five points to 16%, the main source of their gain and a statistically significant one. Breaking down the capital into neighbourhoods, the New Democrats held a lead over the Tories in the northeastern, southeastern, and core parts of the city (the Liberals placed second in this last sector), and were ahead (but not more than marginally so) in the northwestern and southwestern parts. The Liberals had their best results, at 22% and 25% respectively, in southeastern Winnipeg and the core of the city.

Outside of Winnipeg, however, the PCs led with 53%, down seven points. The NDP was up a notable eight points to 36%, while the Liberals were up one point to 8%.

Aside from an extra Liberal seat in Winnipeg, the make-up of Manitoba's legislature would not change with these numbers. The New Democrats continue to dominate in Winnipeg and northern Manitoba, while the Progressive Conservatives win the majority of seats in the southern part of the province.

Neither the Progressive Conservatives nor the Liberals have a permanent leader at the moment, as both Hugh McFadyen and Jon Gerrard have stepped down. McFadyen announced his resignation shortly after the election results came in, and has recently vacated his seat of Fort Whyte. Gerrard, on the other hand, announced his impending resignation earlier this year but will be sticking around until a new leader is chosen in 2013. Taking over that party and leading it into better days will be no small task, while the next leader of the Tories has a good shot of becoming the next Premier - the New Democrats will have been in power for 16 years by the time Manitobans are next called to the polls.

In the meantime, though, it would appear that Greg Selinger is holding down the fort. His party has an intrinsic advantage because of how the province's seats are divided. The NDP could still win an election despite being down a few points in the popular vote because of their wide lead in Winnipeg. The last election hinted at this state of affairs, as the New Democrats won a larger majority than they did in 2007 with a much smaller lead over the Tories. The next leader of the Progressive Conservatives will have to break into Winnipeg if he or she is to have any hope of ending what could be an NDP dynasty in Manitoba.

NDP gains in Manitoba and PEI, Selinger and Ghiz on track for re-election

Yesterday, I was alerted to a poll that was released by MarketQuest Omnifacts Research for Prince Edward Island. This is the same firm which broke the ice in the Newfoundland and Labrador campaign. Few media outlets picked up the poll, but I have the details and so the Prince Edward Island projection has been updated.

But before getting to the MQO poll and PEI, let's take a look at the new poll by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press.

The telephone survey, taken between September 21 and 28 (and so dipping its toe into the survey dates of both the Viewpoints Research and Environics polls) and interviewing 1,000 Manitobans, found that 46% support Greg Selinger's New Democrats, with another 43% intending to vote for the Progressive Conservatives.

The Liberals stood at 7%, while the Greens are at 4%.

Considering the margin of error, this is no change at all since Probe's last poll from the end of June which put the NDP and PCs tied at 44% and the Liberals at 9%. But coupled with the polls from Viewpoints and Environics, we can say that the NDP is ahead.

They are particularly ahead in Winnipeg, with 53% to 35% for the Tories. Outside of the city, the vote intentions are flipped: 54% for the Tories and 34% for the NDP. A big problem for the PCs is that in Winnipeg they only lead in the southwestern part of the city, and there by a statistically insignificant three points. It doesn't seem that the Tories will have much luck in the city.

It's worth noting how the polls have changed over time in Manitoba. PC support has been remarkably consistent, hovering between 40% and 47% for at least a year. But the NDP has taken off, standing in the mid-40s after being in the mid-30s in the spring. And the Liberals have sunk below the symbolic 10% mark.

With this poll, which I suspect will be the last of the campaign, the New Democrats are projected to win 44.7% of the vote, with the Progressive Conservatives taking 43.3%.

The Liberals take 8.1% of the vote while the Greens take 3.5%.

This is a gain of 1.6 points for the NDP since the September 27 projection, and a loss of 0.6 points for the Tories. The Liberals are down 1.5 points while the Greens are up 0.6.

This has not resulted in any seat changes. The New Democrats are projected to win 36 seats, the Tories 20, and the Liberals one.

With the NDP gain, several seats have dropped out of the PCs' range. Only one Tory seat and one NDP are now considered close, putting the NDP range at between 35 and 37 seats and the PC range at between 19 and 21 seats.

The NDP's advantage in Winnipeg is extraordinarily important, as the city has over half of Manitoba's ridings.

Now to Prince Edward Island. The poll by MarketQuest Omnifacts was taken both over the telephone and online between September 23 and 25. Surveying 411 people, the poll is smaller and somewhat older than The Guardian's poll by CRA. But the results are not much different.

MQO found that Liberal support in PEI stood at 53%, exactly the same as the CRA poll. It differed on PC support, pegging them at 32%, and NDP support, finding them at 12%. The Greens stood at 3%.

The NDP level of support is problematic, as they aren't running a full slate of candidates. And this is where we run into a problem - how to adjust for something like that? Should we assume that survey respondents don't know whether or not an NDP candidate is running in their riding? Certainly many, maybe the majority, are aware of this and so the voting intentions number may not inaccurate. It is a bit of a puzzle, but in any case it is unlikely that the NDP will play a big role in Monday's election.

With this poll, the Liberals are now projected to win 52.9% of the vote, down 0.2 points since yesterday's projection.

The Progressive Conservatives are down 1.9 points to 34.2%, while the New Democrats are up 3.1 points to 8.1%. The Greens are down 0.9 points to 4.1%.

The seat projection has not changed: 26 seats for the Liberals and one for the Tories. The seat ranges are also unchanged: 25 to 26 seats for the Liberals and one to two seats for the Progressive Conservatives.

New Democrats and PCs tied in Manitoba, advantage NDP

A new poll by Probe Research shows that the governing New Democrats in Manitoba have closed the gap on their Progressive Conservative rivals in the province, and could squeeze another majority mandate out of the numbers.

Compared to Probe's last poll conducted in March, just before the start of the federal election campaign, the Progressive Conservatives have dropped three points and now stand at 44%, tied with the New Democrats.

Premier Greg Selinger's party has gained nine points since then, much of it on the backs of the provincial Liberals who have sunk five points to only 9% support.

Selinger's handling of the flooding in the province and perhaps even the acquisition of the Atlanta Thrashers, now the Winnipeg Jets, may have played a role in his change of fortunes. The success of the federal NDP is undoubtedly another probable factor.

The New Democrats have made big gains both in the capital and in the rest of Manitoba.

In Winnipeg, the New Democrats are up eight points and lead with 50%, well ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, who are unchanged at 37%. The Liberals are down five points to 11% in the province's main city.

Outside of it, the Progressive Conservatives still lead but have dropped seven points to 55%. The NDP is up 12 points to 36%, while the Liberals are down six points to 5%.

It is a very good poll for the NDP and a very disastrous one for the Liberals. They have lost roughly one-third of their support since March, and most of it to the New Democrats.

But the PCs still do have an ace up their sleeve. Of their voters, 68% are "very certain" in their choice. That is up eight points since March and well ahead of the New Democrats, 52% of whose voters are certain to vote for them. It is even worse for the Liberals. Only 26% of their voters are certain in their choice.

If that kind of turnout occurred on election day, this 44-44-9 split would be transformed into a PC victory with 54% of the vote, with the New Democrats at 41% and the Liberals at 4%.

But with the results of the voting intentions poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects a slim New Democratic majority government of 30 seats. The Progressive Conservatives form the Official Opposition with 26 seats, while the Liberals retain one seat.

That's a drop of six seats for the NDP compared to their current standing and a gain of seven for the PCs, but compared to the projection done for the last Probe poll this is an increase of eight seats for the NDP and a loss of eight for the PCs.

Manitoba is setting up to be the most closely contested of the five provincial elections scheduled for the fall. Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan should see landslides by their respective incumbent governments. The Liberals are behind the eight ball in Ontario, though the outcome is still up in the air, but in Manitoba it is looking like anyone's game. How Selinger handles his party in his first campaign as leader could be a major factor in deciding whether he gets to win a mandate for himself or not.

Little relative change in weekend's polls

During these first few days of the campaign, we were treated to a flurry of polls. Most of them were conducted before the fall of the government on Friday, but did include some or all of the post-budget period. So they act as a good starting point for the campaign that has now begun.

These polls by Probe Research, EKOS, Léger Marketing, CROP, and Angus-Reid are all relatively consistent with one another, as well as the polls previously conducted by these firms.

Please note that Probe and EKOS are telephone surveys, while Léger, CROP, and Angus-Reid use online panels. As the campaign goes on and more polls become available, I will track the difference between these methodologies.

For the three national polls, all of the changes from their previous polls conducted earlier in March are within the sampling margins of error, so we can't really say if there has been a national trend. The situation in Ontario is similar.

What we can take from the national results is that it is obvious the Conservatives are in the high-30s, while the Liberals are somewhere around the mid-20s. And aside from the EKOS poll, the New Democrats seem to have jumped quite a bit.

Delving deeper into the regional results, we can see that the Conservatives appear to be on the rise in Quebec. Angus-Reid does have them down four points, but EKOS, CROP, and Léger Marketing all have the party up, and in three of the four polls the Conservatives are running second in the province.

Another consistent trend in this set of polls is that the Conservatives are down in British Columbia in all of them, while they are up in Atlantic Canada. This could be a coincidence, but it will be something to watch for. A Tory drop in British Columbia would put more than a few seats in play.

But generally speaking, most of the national and regional results in this weekend's set of polls were remarkably consistent. Most striking is the result in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the region that usually has the lowest sample sizes.

Note that there is a report on a Forum Research poll out there, but I won't be including polls where the only information available can be found in incomplete media reports. An email has been sent to the firm, and if I receive the full details of the poll I will include it in my model.

Let's look into these polls individually. The Probe poll is limited to Manitoba, but voting intentions in the Prairies are generally consistent. While the poll has been added to the Prairie projection, it is given a weighting of 54% to represent that it is a Manitoba poll only.

The poll shows very little change from their last poll in December, with the Tories up three points. What is more interesting is the change since the 2008 election. The Conservatives are stable, but the Liberals have captured seven points, most of them (six) coming from the NDP. In Winnipeg alone, the Liberals are up nine points over their 2008 performance. They're running a close second to the Conservatives at 32% to the Tories' 41%.

Within Winnipeg, the Liberals are leading in the southwest, which includes part of Winnipeg South Centre, one of their ridings. The NDP is ahead in the core area, which includes parts of Winnipeg Centre and Winnipeg North. The Tories lead in the rest of the city.

For the EKOS poll, it is worth noting that the Liberals are leading in Toronto with 40.2%, while the Conservatives trail at 35%. The situation is reversed in Ottawa, where the Tories lead with 49% to 33.7% for the Liberals.

The result that stands out in this poll has to be Alberta, where the Liberals stand at 31.9%. EKOS must have thought the same thing, as they polled more people in the province than they normally would, likely trying to correct the result. The projection model awards five seats to the Liberals if the race was actually as close as this, but I imagine it is due to the sampling error. And nationally speaking, the Liberal gain in Alberta from EKOS's last poll is only worth 1.5 points.

EKOS assigned "ceilings" to the parties by combining their first and second choice results. The Conservatives end up with 45%, the Liberals 43%, the NDP 35%, the Greens 22%, and the Bloc 13%, good enough for roughly 50% in Quebec.

Léger Marketing had relatively consistent results in their poll as compared to their last one in early March, but also looked into whether support was "definitive". 89% of Conservative supporters said that it was, while 85% of the Bloc vote is definitive. That number drops to 79% for the Liberals, 74% for the NDP, and 70% for the Greens.

Léger also asked respondents to assign blame for the election. The result was split, with 39% blaming the government and 45% blaming the opposition.

In Quebec, Duceppe is the leader that respondents placed the most confidence in, at 32%. Layton followed with 26%, while Harper (15%) and Ignatieff (6%) were well behind. When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper topped out at 38%, followed by Jack Layton at 21% and Michael Ignatieff at 13%. Angus-Reid asked the same question, and got 32% for Harper, 17% for Layton, and 11% for Ignatieff.

In the CROP poll, the most interesting result comes in the Quebec City region. CROP has the Bloc leading with 36%, up two points from their mid-February poll. The Conservatives are down four to 33%, while the NDP is up four to 22%. It does put a few more Conservative seats in the capital on the bubble.

Angus-Reid's national numbers have been remarkably stable since January. When the polling firm asked its respondents who was best suited to handle various issues, Stephen Harper led on the issues of crime (37%) and the economy (39%).

Jack Layton led on health care (28%) and ethics/accountability (21%), while Elizabeth May led on the environment (33%).

Significantly, Michael Ignatieff didn't lead in any of the categories. He scored best on the economy, though, at 17%.

Provincial NDP drops, PCs now lead by four in Manitoba

A poll by Probe Research released before Christmas shows that the Progressive Conservatives have widened the gap between themselves and the governing New Democrats to four points, outside of the poll's margin of error.When we last heard from Probe in September, the two parties were in a statistical tie. But the Progressive Conservatives have held steady at 42% since then, while the New Democrats have dropped two points to 38%.

The Liberals gained three points and stand at 15%, while 5% of Manitobans supported an "Other" party in this telephone poll.

The Progressive Conservatives hold the advantage in most demographics: males, voters aged between 18 and 34 and those older than 55, Manitobans of all education levels, and voters who earned more than $60,000 per year. The NDP is tied with the PCs among women and voters between the ages of 35 and 54, while the New Democrats lead among Manitobans who earn less than $60,000 per year.

The Progressive Conservative lead is based mostly on their strength outside of the provincial capital. Up one point since September, the PCs lead with 54%, compared to 29% for the NDP (-3) and 13% for the Liberals (+5).

The New Democrats lead in Winnipeg with 44%, down two from September, while the Progressive Conservatives are down one point to 34%. The Liberals have gained three points in the capital, but still trail well behind at 17%.

This poll would give the Progressive Conservatives 30 seats and a slim majority government. The New Democrats would win 26 seats while the Liberals would elect only one MLA.

If these close numbers hold throughout 2011, the provincial election next year will be one to watch. The New Democrats have been in power for a long time now but Premier Greg Selinger has yet to demonstrate that he can win an election for his party. Will the Liberals recover from Kevin Lamoureux's departure? Can the Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives be part of the blue wave that seems to be sweeping over the country at the provincial level?

Federal Liberals gain in Manitoba

A Probe Research poll conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that, while the Conservatives have remained steady, the Liberals and New Democrats have swapped second and third places.Compared to Probe's federal poll in December 2009, the Conservatives have lost two points but still lead with a healthy 48%. That is only one point less than the party had in the 2008 federal election.

The Liberals, however, are up five points to 26%, a gain of seven points since the election. It's the New Democrats who have suffered, dropping three points since December 2009 and five points since the October 2008 election. They now trail in third with 19%.

The Greens are down two points from last year and the last election with 5%.

Compared to Probe's last federal poll from September, there has been little change.

The Conservatives are leading in all demographics, as well as in Winnipeg and outside of it.

In the provincial capital, the Conservatives remain unchanged since last year with 43%. The Liberals have made a big gain, jumping eight points to 32%. Note that this poll was taken in the midst of the by-election campaign, so it could be capturing some of the enthusiasm that got Kevin Lamoureux elected in Winnipeg North. The NDP is down seven points to 19% in the city.

Outside of Winnipeg, the Conservatives have a commanding lead with 56%, though that is a drop of three points from a year ago. The Liberals are up two to 19%, while the NDP is up one to 16%.

No one would have guessed it to be the case a few months ago, but Manitoba may just be one of the provinces to watch in the next federal election. Will the Liberals be able to hold on to Winnipeg North? Will they be able to expand their bridgehead in the province? And how will the NDP fare? There are a few potentially interesting story lines to look out for in Manitoba this year.

Federal NDP drops in Manitoba

A poll taken by Probe Research at the end of September shows that support for the New Democrats at the federal level has dropped significantly in Manitoba, to the benefit of the Liberals and Conservatives.Compared to Probe's last Manitoba federal poll taken in June, the NDP has lost six points and now stands at only 18%. The Conservatives lead with 47%, up three from June but still down two from the 2008 election. The Liberals have moved into second place with 25%, up four from June and up six from 2008.

The Greens are at 6%, down four from June and one from 2008.

The Conservatives lead both inside and outside of Winnipeg, but the race is much closer in the city than it is outside of it. With 32%, the Liberals are only eight points behind the Conservatives in Winnipeg, while the NDP is at 21%. Outside of Winnipeg, the Conservatives have a massive lead with 56% to the Liberals' 16% and the NDP's 15%.

Using a simple uniform swing method, the Conservatives would be projected to win 10 seats in the province, up one from 2008. The Liberals would also gain a seat and win two, while the NDP would be the loser of those two seats and be reduced to two seats themselves in Manitoba.

The Conservatives would gain the riding of Elmwood-Transcona, while the Liberals would win in Churchill. These are the ridings of Jim Maloway and Niki Ashton, respectively, two NDP MPs who voted to scrap the long-gun registry three weeks ago.

While it is impossible to predict what would happen at the local level, it appears possible that the NDP's perceived stance on the issue, rather than the voting history of individual members, will put several seats at risk of being taken over by the Liberals and Conservatives in the next federal election.

Two polls show close race in Manitoba

Two polls were recently conducted for the Manitoba provincial election slated to take place in the fall of 2011. One is from Viewpoints Research and the other is from Probe Research. The Viewpoints poll was taken in the first half of September, while the Probe poll was taken in the second half. They both show similar results, but with vastly different consequences.In the Viewpoints poll, the New Democrats lead over the Progressive Conservatives, 39% to 38%. That is well within the margin of error. The Liberals follow with 15%, with the Greens holding at 8%.

Probe, on the other hand, shows a small lead for the Progressive Conservatives, with 42% to the NDP's 40%. Again, this is within the margin of error. These two polls show virtually the same results, especially when you consider that Probe has the Liberals at 12% and "Others" (Greens, mostly) at 6%. This is mostly unchanged from Probe's last poll in June. Probe provides a little more detail, showing that the Progressive Conservatives lead among men, people between the ages of 18 and 34, people over the age of 55, those with a high school education, and those who make more than $30,000 per year. The NDP leads or is tied with the PCs in all other categories.

The similarity in results continues at the regional level. Both Viewpoints and Probe have the NDP in front in Winnipeg with 46%, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 32% and 35%, respectively. The Liberals are third with 15% and 14%, respectively.

Outside of Winnipeg there is a little more variation, but in either case we have a large lead for the Progressive Conservatives. They lead this region in the Viewpoints poll with 46%, compared to 53% in the Probe Research poll. The NDP is at 33% and 32%, respectively, with the Liberals at 12% and 8%, respectively. Compared to Probe's last poll in June, the Tories have made a big gain outside of Winnipeg, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.

The seat projection is where things are very different. With Viewpoints' results, the New Democrats would win a majority government with 30 seats, while the Progressive Conservatives would take 24. The Liberals would win three seats. It is a narrow majority, but a majority nevertheless. Greg Selinger, Gary Doer's replacement, would win his first election as leader of the Manitoba NDP.

In the Probe poll, however, we get 29 seats for the Progressive Conservatives, 27 for the New Democrats, and one for the Liberals. It's the slimmest of majorities, but the PCs would form government.

These two polls are very different from Angus-Reid's last poll in August, which had the Progressive Conservatives way ahead with 49% to the NDP's 34%. These two polls seem to show a much closer race, and with such a consensus opinion from two polling firms we can comfortably assume that this tight situation is the actual one in Manitoba right now.