PEI: Projection vs. Results

It's time to return to the island, and take an indepth look at how the projection stacked up against the results in Prince Edward Island, the first election in the series of five to take place in 2011.

In what is most important, the projection made the right call. Robert Ghiz's Liberals were given a majority government, with Olive Crane's Progressive Conservatives forming the Official Opposition. Neither the Greens nor the New Democrats entered the legislature.

But with the polls showing a strong lead for Ghiz, his re-election with a majority was a foregone conclusion.

ThreeHundredEight projected 26 Liberals and one Progressive Conservative, when instead 22 Liberals and five Progressive Conservatives were elected. With the exact provincial vote totals input into the model, the projection gave the Liberals 25 seats and the Tories two. While better, it was still off.

The projected seat range of between 25 and 26 Liberals and between one and two Progressive Conservatives was as good as the projection with the actual results. I'll return to why the projection made the wrong calls in several ridings later.

The vote projection for the Liberals and the Greens was quite good, missing the Liberals by only 1.5 points and the Greens by 0.3. But the Progressive Conservatives took six more points than expected while the NDP took almost five points less.

There are a few reasons for this. Both polls released at the end of the campaign under-estimated the Tories and over-estimated the New Democrats, and both polls were released almost a week before the vote was held. Opinion may have shifted in those last days of the campaign, and the inability of the New Democrats to run a full slate undoubtedly contributed to them garnering less of the vote.

In the end, the projection had an accuracy rating of 85.2%, making the correct call in 23 of the 27 ridings in Prince Edward Island. The projection with the actual vote totals would have made the correct call in 24 of 27 ridings, for an accuracy rating of 88.9%.

As you can see from the list of facts above, in the four ridings where the wrong calls were made the average margin of victory was 9.0%. This is somewhat skewed, as in two ridings the margin was less than 1.5%, while in two others it was over 12%.

The biggest problem was the over-estimation of Liberal strength, which was done in almost 82% of ridings. The same was done for the NDP in 73% of the ridings in which they ran candidates, while the Tories were under-estimated in 85% of ridings.

On average, Liberal support was projected to be 5.3% higher than it actually was in each riding, while it was projected to be 5% lower than the actual result for the Tories. The Green and NDP estimates were much better.

But that does not mean the riding projections weren't accurate. In roughly half of ridings the Liberal and/or PC support was estimated at within 5% of the actual result, while that increases to over 85% for the New Democrats and Greens (not surprisingly, since in most ridings they did not get much more than 5%). In all, 29.6% of party support projections in each riding were at or within 5% of the final result.

Taken together, the margin of error for each and every riding projection was, on average, +/- 4.6%.

The chart above shows the three closest riding projections, in Alberton-Roseville, Kensington-Malpeque, and Vernon River-Stratford.

The performance of the Island Party in Alberton-Roseville prevented that projection from being absolutely perfect.

While the projection in Prince Edward Island was adequate, what prevented it from being more accurate?

In addition to the local factors at play, which will always be amplified in a smaller province, there were a few other problems.

The most important was the unexpected strength of the Progressive Conservatives in eastern PEI. It was expected to be their best region, but they did much better there than the provincial swing should have indicated.

Does Prince Edward Island need a regional model? It probably would have helped. The last poll from Corporate Research Associates did have a regional breakdown, but it wasn't reported in full in The Guardian. Constructing a regional model for PEI would require more information in future elections. In any case, both CRA and MQO Research (especially) under-estimated Progressive Conservative support, and even in the regional breakdowns CRA had the Tories and Liberals "neck-and-neck" in eastern PEI, when the result was actually a seven point edge for the Tories.

But what of the four ridings in which the wrong calls were made? Souris-Elmira and Tignish-Palmer Road went Tory for no reason that the projection model could have predicted. Removing the incumbency bonuses and giving the two PC candidates the "star" bonus still would have shown them leaning Liberal.

Stratford-Kinlock would have been projected to vote PC if James Aylward had been considered a star candidate, but Aylward does not fit the profile.

Georgetown-St. Peters is a little more interesting. With the correct province-wide vote, the projection would have given this riding to the Tories. But it seems that the lack of a PC incumbent did not play a big role in this riding - removing this factor would have given the riding to the Tories in the pre-election projection.

What this boils down to is that two of the four ridings that were wrongly called could not have been correctly called by this projection model. The ridings simply went their own way and bucked province-wide trends. Another would have been correctly called had the vote projection been accurate, while the last riding could have only been projected correctly by assigning the Tory candidate a star bonus he (to be harsh) did not deserve. A regional model which would have had the Progressive Conservatives doing better in the eastern part of the island might have done a better job getting Stratford-Kinlock and Souris-Elmira correct, meaning only Tignish-Palmer Road would have still voted unexpectedly in a perfect projection storm.

The projection for Prince Edward Island was a middling performance, ranking fourth in the seven elections that ThreeHundredEight has made projections up to this point.

Liberals gain in Ontario, still low in Newfoundland

Before getting to today's polls, a few words about Prince Edward Island's election last night. A full post-mortem will come after the Newfoundland and Labrador election, when there will be some time to digest the results.

There were only two polls conducted in Prince Edward Island during the campaign and none in the last six days. But they nevertheless under-estimated Tory support and over-estimated that of the New Democrats. Had the polls been accurate, ThreeHundredEight's projection model would have had the Liberals at 25 seats and the Tories at two. Still off, but a little better.

My projected seat range with those numbers would have been 1-3 seats for the Tories, but if I extend that range to ridings projected to have been won by six per cent or less (instead of five per cent), then the high seat range for the PCs would have been five. I will be using the margin of six per cent to determine whether a race is close or not for subsequent elections.

Now, projecting a slightly larger overwhelming Liberal majority than the overwhelming Liberal majority that actually was elected last night is not a huge problem. It is Prince Edward Island, a province with a population smaller than a few ridings in Ontario. When two PC ridings were won by about 30 votes and 425 votes separated my high seat range of two from their result of five, I don't consider the model to have failed.

But the under-estimation of Conservative support, the third consecutive time this has happened in an election I have done projections for, is vexing. I will take a close look at it before making my final Manitoba projection later today.

Ontario

One poll was released this morning by Nanos Research, as part of their rolling three day polling. Taken between October 1 and 3 and surveying 900 people, Nanos finds Liberal support standing at 37.7%, followed by the Tories at 33.2% and the NDP at 25.8%. This matches EKOS's latest findings in that the Liberals are beginning to pull ahead. Though the sample sizes are small, Nanos even has the Liberals over the 40% mark over the last two days.

With this Nanos poll added to the projection, the Liberals now stand to take 35.9% of the vote, with 33.4% going to the Progressive Conservatives.

The New Democrats are projected to take 25.3% while the Greens take 4.1%.

This is a gain of 0.7 points for the Liberals and 0.1 points for the NDP since yesterday's projection. The Greens have dropped 0.2 points and the Tories 0.6 points.

One seat has changed hands as a result, with the Liberals now up to 56 seats and the Progressive Conservatives down to 30. The New Democrats remain at 21 seats.

The Liberal seat gain comes in southwestern Ontario.

The Liberals are now projected to win 12 seats in the region, with seven going to the Tories and two to the New Democrats.

As mentioned, the bar for the seat ranges has now been moved to six per cent as a result of the PEI election. This doesn't change too much in Ontario, however.

The Liberals are leading in eight close races and trailing in five, putting their seat range at between 48 and 61. This is significant, as the Liberals are now at about even odds of pulling out a minority or majority government on Thursday.

The Progressive Conservatives lead in four close races and trail in six, putting their seat range at between 26 and 36. Things need to change in order for the Tories to be back in the race to form government.

The New Democrats lead in two close races and trail in three, putting their seat range at between 19 and 24. If things continue to go badly for the Tories, a scenario in which they finish third is not out of the question.

Newfoundland and Labrador

When MQO Research put Liberal support at 13% last week, Kevin Aylward, leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals, put out a press release accusing the Tories of having bought and paid for the poll. It was an unusual thing to do, as most political leaders brush poll results aside. It was a risky gamble that would pay off if the next poll put the Liberals up.

Well, it didn't. The latest poll by NTV and Telelink, conducted between October 1 and 2 and surveying 511 people by telephone, puts Progressive Conservative support at 58.9% of decided and leaning voters. The New Democrats follow with 28.4% while the Liberals stand at 12.5%.

In other words, this plainly independent poll is even better for the Tories and worse for the Liberals than the poll by MQO Research.

Kathy Dunderdale comes out even better on the leadership question, with 55% saying she is the best person for the job. Lorraine Michael of the NDP follows with 19% while Aylward is at 7%.

With this poll added, the Progressive Conservatives are now projected to take 56.7% of the vote. The New Democrats follow with 30.3% and the Liberals come up in third with 12.8%.

This represents a gain of 2.9 points for the Tories and a drop of 2.5 points for the NDP since the last projection. The Liberals are down 0.4 points.

This has not caused any changes in the seat projection.

The Progressive Conservatives are still projected to win 42 seats, the New Democrats four, and the Liberals two.

This has nudged a few seats out of being considered close races. The Liberals and NDP each lead in one close race, trailed by the Tories.

This puts the PC seat range at between 42 and 44 seats. The New Democrats are projected to win between three and four seats and the Liberals between one and two seats.

There is still a week to go before Newfoundland's vote, and I expect two or three polls before then. But Newfoundland and Labrador will pose some of the same problems as Prince Edward Island. The ridings are about twice as large, but they are still very small and subject to local factors to a degree that other provinces, particularly Ontario, are not. The polls seem to be relatively consistent, though, so the big question will be how they translate into seats.

I will post the final projection for Manitoba shortly, incorporating the latest poll from Angus-Reid.

Final PEI Projection: Ghiz Liberals win majority government

Prince Edward Islanders head to the polls today in the first of five provincial elections slated for the fall. ThreeHundredEight.com projects that the Liberals under Robert Ghiz will win a majority government, with Olive Crane's Progressive Conservatives forming the Official Opposition.

The projection has not changed since the last projection of September 30. The Liberals are projected to win 52.9% of the vote and 26 seats, with the Progressive Conservatives winning 34.2% of the vote and one seat.

The New Democrats, with 8.1% of the vote, and the Greens, with 4.1% of the vote, are not projected to win any seats.

The Progressive Conservatives are projected to win their one seat in the eastern part of the province. The Liberals take all of the rest.

Only two polls were released during the campaign, with another being released just before the campaign began.

The polls showed little movement, particularly when considering the large margin of error. The Liberals started the campaign at 59% support and dropped to 53%, while the Tories ranged between 31% and 36%. Where the New Democrats end up is disputed: the Corporate Research Associates pegged their support at 5% while MQO Research put them at 12%.

As the above chart shows, most of the campaign went un-polled, while no data was released for the last six days of the campaign.

The above chart boils down the final projection. Only one riding is projected to be close, putting the Liberal range at between 25 and 26 seats and the Progressive Conservative range at between one and two seats.

However, Prince Edward Island is a tiny province with even tinier ridings. There is a lot of potential for several surprises as only a few hundred votes need to swing one way or the other in virtually every riding in order to change hands. Being such a small province, the difficulty in projecting the result is compounded.

If we take into account the margin of error in the 2011 federal campaign's projection (with accurate vote results, that is), the potential exists for the Liberals to win as few as 23 seats and as many as 27. The Tories could win between zero and four. But it is unlikely that all of the errors would swing in one direction.

But what if the polls have it wrong? The 2007 provincial election was polled relatively well. Even the degree of polling error in the 2011 federal election isn't enough to change the race in Prince Edward Island dramatically.

The above chart adjusts the projection by the degree of polling error in the 2007 provincial and 2011 federal campaigns. For example, the Conservatives averaged 37.4% in the final polls of the 2011 federal campaign, and ended up getting 39.6%. This would mean an adjustment of PC support by a factor of 1.059. After making the adjustments, the vote projection is then smoothed out to add up to 100%.

If the polls are off in the same way as they were in 2007 (though it is, of course, unlikely that the same error would be reproduced exactly), the Liberals should take 55.6% of the vote to the Tories' 34.9%. This would not change the projection: 26 Liberal and one Progressive Conservative seat.

If the polls are off in the same way as they were in the 2011 federal campaign, the Liberals should take 52% of the vote and the Tories 36.2%. Again, that does not change the projection but does increase the likelihood of the PCs taking an extra seat.

But, in the end, the only question heading into tonight's vote in Prince Edward Island is how large the Progressive Conservative opposition will be. The potential for a Liberal sweep of all 27 ridings exists, but I consider it unlikely. The need to have some opposition in the legislature is an advantage to Olive Crane, and the final poll of the campaign indicated that support in Kings County was neck-and-neck between the Liberals and the Tories. Whether the PCs win one or two seats will likely be decided here, but a Liberal majority is inevitable.

NDP gains in Manitoba and PEI, Selinger and Ghiz on track for re-election

Yesterday, I was alerted to a poll that was released by MarketQuest Omnifacts Research for Prince Edward Island. This is the same firm which broke the ice in the Newfoundland and Labrador campaign. Few media outlets picked up the poll, but I have the details and so the Prince Edward Island projection has been updated.

But before getting to the MQO poll and PEI, let's take a look at the new poll by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press.

The telephone survey, taken between September 21 and 28 (and so dipping its toe into the survey dates of both the Viewpoints Research and Environics polls) and interviewing 1,000 Manitobans, found that 46% support Greg Selinger's New Democrats, with another 43% intending to vote for the Progressive Conservatives.

The Liberals stood at 7%, while the Greens are at 4%.

Considering the margin of error, this is no change at all since Probe's last poll from the end of June which put the NDP and PCs tied at 44% and the Liberals at 9%. But coupled with the polls from Viewpoints and Environics, we can say that the NDP is ahead.

They are particularly ahead in Winnipeg, with 53% to 35% for the Tories. Outside of the city, the vote intentions are flipped: 54% for the Tories and 34% for the NDP. A big problem for the PCs is that in Winnipeg they only lead in the southwestern part of the city, and there by a statistically insignificant three points. It doesn't seem that the Tories will have much luck in the city.

It's worth noting how the polls have changed over time in Manitoba. PC support has been remarkably consistent, hovering between 40% and 47% for at least a year. But the NDP has taken off, standing in the mid-40s after being in the mid-30s in the spring. And the Liberals have sunk below the symbolic 10% mark.

With this poll, which I suspect will be the last of the campaign, the New Democrats are projected to win 44.7% of the vote, with the Progressive Conservatives taking 43.3%.

The Liberals take 8.1% of the vote while the Greens take 3.5%.

This is a gain of 1.6 points for the NDP since the September 27 projection, and a loss of 0.6 points for the Tories. The Liberals are down 1.5 points while the Greens are up 0.6.

This has not resulted in any seat changes. The New Democrats are projected to win 36 seats, the Tories 20, and the Liberals one.

With the NDP gain, several seats have dropped out of the PCs' range. Only one Tory seat and one NDP are now considered close, putting the NDP range at between 35 and 37 seats and the PC range at between 19 and 21 seats.

The NDP's advantage in Winnipeg is extraordinarily important, as the city has over half of Manitoba's ridings.

Now to Prince Edward Island. The poll by MarketQuest Omnifacts was taken both over the telephone and online between September 23 and 25. Surveying 411 people, the poll is smaller and somewhat older than The Guardian's poll by CRA. But the results are not much different.

MQO found that Liberal support in PEI stood at 53%, exactly the same as the CRA poll. It differed on PC support, pegging them at 32%, and NDP support, finding them at 12%. The Greens stood at 3%.

The NDP level of support is problematic, as they aren't running a full slate of candidates. And this is where we run into a problem - how to adjust for something like that? Should we assume that survey respondents don't know whether or not an NDP candidate is running in their riding? Certainly many, maybe the majority, are aware of this and so the voting intentions number may not inaccurate. It is a bit of a puzzle, but in any case it is unlikely that the NDP will play a big role in Monday's election.

With this poll, the Liberals are now projected to win 52.9% of the vote, down 0.2 points since yesterday's projection.

The Progressive Conservatives are down 1.9 points to 34.2%, while the New Democrats are up 3.1 points to 8.1%. The Greens are down 0.9 points to 4.1%.

The seat projection has not changed: 26 seats for the Liberals and one for the Tories. The seat ranges are also unchanged: 25 to 26 seats for the Liberals and one to two seats for the Progressive Conservatives.

PCs gain, but Liberals still poised for near sweep in PEI

The Charlottetown Guardian, which covers PEI like the morning dew, put out a new poll this morning for the provincial election scheduled to take place on the island on October 3rd.

The poll, conducted over the telephone by the Corporate Research Associates between September 23 and 27 and surveying 700 Prince Edward Islanders (amazingly, one of, if not the, largest samples ever taken in PEI), finds that the governing Liberals lead with 53%, down six points since CRA's pre-campaign poll conducted in August. The Progressive Conservatives are up five to 36%, while the NDP is down two and the Greens are up two to 5% apiece.

This is probably the only poll that will be released for PEI in this campaign. Thankfully, CRA nailed it in 2007 so let's hope they do so again this time around.

Being the only poll released during the campaign, it takes up virtually all of the projection. Accordingly, the Liberals are now projected to take 53.1% of the vote, with the Progressive Conservatives following at 36.1%.

The New Democrats and Greens are tied at 5% each.

Since the last projection of September 7, the Liberals have dropped 5.6 points while the Tories have picked up five. The New Democrats have slipped 3.7 points while the Greens are up 2.1.

If you look at the monthly provincial polling chart in the right-hand column, you'll see that movement is almost completely limited to vote swapping between the Liberals and Tories on the one hand, and between the NDP and the Greens on the other. It seems that in PEI the vast majority of the population switches between the two governing options, while a small minority can't decide for which fringe party they will cast their vote. In this election, the New Democrats are fielding fewer candidates than the Greens, so the odds that they will finish fourth in the popular vote again are decent.

 There are no seat changes in the projection, with the Tories still winning their lone seat in the eastern part of the island (Kings County). If they are to win a second or third seat, it will happen there.

Whereas in the last projection the Liberal range included a sweep of all 27 seats, the Tory gain has given them a chance of winning two seats.

This puts the Liberal range at between 25 and 26 seats, while the Progressive Conservatives could win one or two seats. A complete Liberal sweep seems unlikely at this stage.

Final projections for Prince Edward Island will be posted Monday morning. As I don't expect any other polls to be released, they will not be any different from today's. However, as I was partly burned by the polls in the 2011 federal campaign, I am going to present some other possible scenarios on Monday taking into account past polling error.

According to what I have read in the Winnipeg Free Press, a Probe Research poll for Manitoba should be revealed tomorrow. So check here in the morning for the latest (and likely last) projections for that province.

McGuinty drops to minority

A new poll was released last night from Abacus Data, for Sun News. This poll will undoubtedly raise a few eyebrows, considering that it pegs Progressive Conservative support at 41%, compared to 32% for the Liberals and 20% for the New Democrats.

Obviously, that differs from the two most recent polls from Ipsos-Reid and Nanos Research, and is even at odds with the spate of pre-campaign polls released at the end of August and the beginning of September. The results aren't wildly outside the margin of error of other recent polls, but we're probably looking at either an outlier or a shift in voting intentions (this poll was taken up to September 12th, after all, while Ipsos-Reid and Nanos ran up to September 11th).

But another issue with the poll is its methodology. Polls generally just ask respondents for which party they intend to vote, and if they aren't decided towards which party they are leaning. There are some variations on how this question is asked (i.e. Nanos asks voters to rank their top two local preferences, Ipsos-Reid doesn't prompt for Greens, etc.), but it is generally the same.

Abacus is taking a completely different approach, at least at this stage of the campaign. They are asking respondents to rate their likelihood of voting for each party on a scale of 0 to 10, with the party receiving the highest score being considered the party that the respondent will vote for. In case of a tie, the respondent is considered an undecided.

This does a good job of gauging enthusiasm for each party, but does have some limitations. For example, someone could conceivably respond with a 9 for the PCs and an 8 for the Liberals and NDP, and be marked down as a decided PC voter in this poll. Another respondent could put the PCs at 10 and the others at zero, and also be considered a decided PC voter. But those two voters are very, very different.

But what this poll may be doing is recording what other polls cannot. With standard polls, it is up to the respondent to gauge whether they are decided or not, and whether they are leaning to one party or not. The decided voter in a standard poll might be the same as that voter who answers 10 for the PCs, while the leaning voter may be the same as the person who answers 9 for the PCs and 8 for the other parties. Or this method may somehow negatively influence how someone answers, compared to the standard method.

Whether this method has any merit or not is difficult to say. I think it is a worthwhile experiment, and I hope Abacus will continue it through to election day. Since it is not up to me to decide which methodologies are valid and which methodologies are not, I see no reason not to include this poll. And remember that ThreeHundredEight's weighting system does include the track record of each polling firm, so not all polls are considered equal.

Another poll out this morning is from Forum Research on the city of Toronto only. It finds that the Liberals lead with 39%, followed by the New Democrats at 30% and the Progressive Conservatives at 24%. Compared to their last poll conducted at the end of August, that is not much of a difference. If we look at Abacus's poll, they have the Liberals leading in Toronto with 38% to 35% for the PCs and 21% for the NDP. At the very least, we can say that the Liberals are leading in the city.

Prince Edward Island

Before moving on to the Ontario projection, let's briefly look at the results of a Corporate Research Associates poll for The Guardian, Charlottetown's major newspaper. This is data derived from CRA's quarterly poll conducted in August.

It finds that the Liberals lead the PCs on every issue such as having a vision for the future of the province (40% to 18%), being able to handle economic problems (42% to 19%), dealing with the health care system (34% to 23%), and keeping a balanced budget (32% to 21%). What is interesting in this poll, however, is that on the vision question the PCs and Liberals are tied at 35% apiece in Kings County, the easternmost part of the island and the only part of the island that elected PC MLAs in 2007. Perhaps the party still stands a shot at more than one or two wins in the region.

On to the newly updated Ontario projection. With this Abacus poll included, the Progressive Conservatives are back on top, gaining 1.1 points to lead with 37.2%. The Liberals have dropped one point to 35.2%.

The New Democrats are down 0.8 points to 22.5%, while the Greens are up 0.7 points to 3.8%.

In terms of seats, the Liberals have dropped two and the NDP one, with all three going to the Tories. That puts the Liberals at 53, one short of a majority, the PCs at 35, and the NDP back down to 19 seats.

The PCs have picked up two seats in Greater Toronto and one seat in Toronto itself, with the Liberals losing one seat in each region and the NDP one seat in the GTA. The Liberals are still projected to win a majority of seats in both regions, however. In and around Toronto, the Liberals dominate with 28 seats to six apiece for the PCs and NDP.

This is the first time that the PCs have gained in the projection, but as you can see in the chart above they are still well below where they were only last week.

The ranges have become much more favourable for the Tories, who lead in five close races and trail in 16 others. The Liberals lead in 16 close races and trail in five, while the NDP leads in one close race and trails in two.

That puts the Liberal range at between 37 and 58 seats, compared to a range of 30 to 51 seats for the PCs and 18 to 21 seats for the NDP. The Liberals can still win a majority, while the PCs are now able to beat the Liberals - but only enough to secure a minority.

The overlap for the two main parties is apparent in the chart above.

Unfortunately, the rumour of another new poll this morning did not pan out. For Ontario, I suspect we will hear from Angus-Reid this week and a poll out of Manitoba will have to appear at some point. The two Atlantic provinces are relatively quiet for the time-being, but I'm sure we will see something from both provinces before the vote.

Incumbents leading in provincial elections

Change is a major theme in world politics lately. But not in Canada, where 2011 is setting up to be the Year of the Incumbent.

Canadians from the Atlantic Ocean to the Rocky Mountains are in the mood for the status quo, as five and possible six of the provinces headed to a fall election are on track to re-elect their incumbent governments.

Even this year’s federal election was an exercise in smooth sailing. Though the New Democrats soared to second place and the Liberals and Bloc Québécois fell by the wayside, Stephen Harper’s five-year-old government was re-elected for another five years. In Quebec, scene of much of the election’s change, it could even be argued that the province’s voters simply exchanged one social democratic opposition party for another.

Popular governments in Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Prince Edward Island are safely on course to be re-elected, with their incumbent governments leading the main opposition parties in their respective provinces by about 30 points. Brad Wall and Robert Ghiz, the country’s two youngest premiers, will almost certainly be re-elected for a second term in Saskatchewan and PEI, while Kathy Dunderdale is expected to extend the lifespan of the Progressive Conservative government in Newfoundland and Labrador, first established by Danny Williams in 2003.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

I'll be updating the projection later this morning. There is a new poll from Abacus Data for Ontario out, though it does use an unusual methodology.

Though they won't be added to the projection, there are also some polls to discuss from Forum Research on the Toronto vote and from the Corporate Research Associates on how Prince Edward Islanders view the parties in their province.

I've also heard word of another poll lurking about, with a release later this morning. I'll probably hold off until that one is available.

NDP poised to make history in Newfoundland and Labrador

The New Democrats are looking to make a splash in Atlantic Canada following their stunning success in May's federal election, and in at least one province they might just pull it off.

But the effects of the orange wave and the outpouring of sympathy in the wake Jack Layton's death has been a little uneven.

In Newfoundland and Labrador’s upcoming October vote, the NDP under Lorraine Michael is poised to make history. The New Democrats have never won more than two seats in any provincial election on the Rock, and their vote share has only been in the double-digits once, in 1985.

The timing of the provincial election is good for the NDP leader. In May's federal election, the party took almost one-third of the vote and easily won the two ridings in St. John's. Jack Harris, former Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader, took his seat with 71 per cent of the vote, while Ryan Cleary was elected with 48 per cent. Outside of the city, however, the NDP was not much of a factor.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

The Corporate Research Associates polls for Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador have already been included in the projection model. Word from the Atlantic is that there will be few polls during these campaigns, but let's hope these rumours are unfounded.

The poll released yesterday by Harris-Decima for Ontario is not yet included in the projection for the province, but will be in Monday's projection for The Globe and Mail, so keep an eye out for that.

Hudak down to minority in new projection, updates to PEI and NL

New polls for the election races in Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Prince Edward Island were released yesterday.

In Ontario, Nanos released new numbers for CTV, The Globe and Mail, and CP24, showing the Progressive Conservatives at 35.4% to the Liberals' 31.9% and the NDP's 22.8%. This represents a significant drop for both the PCs and the Liberals (6.7 and 5.7 points, respectively) and a large gain for the NDP (up 6.6 points). The Greens stand at 4.1%, leaving an unusually large 5.8% leftover for the others.

I'm not quite sure what is going on with this poll, but if we distribute those five extra points proportionately, we end up with 37.8% for the Tories, 33.9% for the Liberals, and 24.2% for the NDP.

With this poll, the projection has swung against the Tories. They've dropped 0.3 points to 39.1% support, while the Liberals are up 0.1 points to 32.2% and the NDP is up 0.3 points to 21.9%. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 5.5%.

This results in the Progressive Conservatives dropping five seats to 50, four short of a majority government. The Liberals are up four seats to 38, while the New Democrats are up one seat to 19.

The Liberals have picked up two of their seats from the Tories in southwestern Ontario, and the other two in Toronto. This now means the Liberals are projected to win half of the seats in Toronto, and are tied with the Tories at 10 apiece in southwestern Ontario.

The New Democrats gain their seat in southwestern Ontario. They now stand at one in the region as a whole.

This is the second consecutive projection showing the Tories on the decline. Since July, they have lost 11 seats in the projection, 10 of them going to the Liberals and one to the NDP.

There are still a lot of close races in the province. The Tories lead 16 of them and trail in 14, while the Liberals lead 14 and trail in 16. The NDP now leads one of the close races, and is trailing in two others.

That puts the Progressive Conservative range at between 34 and 64 seats, the Liberals at between 24 and 54 seats, and the NDP at between 18 and 21 seats.

The chart above shows how the ranges look when stacked up against one another. This isn't a chart showing exact probability of each party winning X amount of seats, but is simply showing how the ranges overlap, or not. Obviously, any party winning all of the close races or losing all of the close races is very unlikely, which is why the chart has the seat totals nearest to the actual projection as the most probable. This chart also shows how much of the Liberal and Tory ranges are within majority territory.

Full riding projections can be found in the right-hand column or at the bottom of this post.

On to Newfoundland and Labrador, where the Corporate Research Associates peg PC support at 54%, ahead of the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 22%. Though none of these results are outside of the margin of error in comparison to CRA's last poll in May, what is remarkable about these results is that the NDP is holding on to the support they had in that last poll. To my eyes, it looked like a possible blip. But this poll confirms that the NDP is in the race in Newfoundland and Labrador.

With the results of this poll included, the projection shows the Progressive Conservatives down 6.1 points to 61%. The Liberals are up 0.8 points to 21.1% while the NDP is up 5.4 points to 17.7%.

This shift has resulted in the Liberals picking up two seats from the Tories. The PCs now stand at 42, with the Liberals winning four and the NDP two.

The Liberals pick up one seat in the Avalon and Burin region, and another in the main part of Newfoundland.

This means that the Liberals are only being shut out of the St. John's region.

A few more races are now looking close in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Tories lead in six of them and trail in two, while the Liberals lead in two closes races and trail in three. The NDP also trails in one close race.

This puts the Tory range at between 38 and 44 seats, with the Liberals now standing at between two and seven seats and the NDP between two and three. In other words, the role of the Official Opposition is still at play.

Finally, on to Prince Edward Island. The Corporate Research Associates poll for the province shows some change, with the Liberals up eight points to 59%, the PCs down four to 31%, and the NDP down six to 7%, but nothing groundbreaking. It does seem to indicate, however, that the NDP is not surging in every part of Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals have gained 2.3 points and now lead with 56.7%. The Progressive Conservatives are down 0.3 points to 31.1%, while the New Democrats are down two points to 8.7%. The Greens are up 0.2 points to 2.9% in PEI.

This has not changed the seat projection, which still stands at 26 seats for the Liberals and one for the Progressive Conservatives.

The only thing that has changed is the Liberal range. With the Liberals up and the Tories down, the one riding held by the Progressive Conservatives is now a close riding, meaning that the Liberal range now stands at between 26 and 27 seats, or a sweep. The PC range is between zero and one seat.

Now, a little bit about how ThreeHundredEight.com will be covering the provincial campaigns.

I do not know if there will be a poll for one of the provinces released every day, but I will be updating the projection on a daily basis when there are new polls available. On days with a new projection, there will often be a second daily post on another topic as well.

Weekly Ontario projections will be featured in The Globe and Mail on Mondays, while I will also be appearing on the Téléjournal Ontario on Mondays to speak about the provincial campaign (except for this week, when I am scheduled to appear today). I will also have my usual twice-weekly articles at The Huffington Post Canada, where I will analyze some of the emerging trends of the provincial campaigns, particularly those in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies.