Why Dalton McGuinty is worse off now than four years ago

Ontario and Manitoba are setting up for some closely contested elections in October.

But the last elections in the two provinces in 2007 were also supposed to go down to the wire, and in the end the incumbent governments beat their rivals by 10 points. Will the same thing happen in the fall?

Four months prior to the October 2007 election in Ontario, two polls by Ipsos-Reid and Environics indicated a neck-and-neck race between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives, with about 40 per cent of Ontarians intending to vote for the governing Liberals and about 38 per cent expecting to vote for John Tory’s PCs.

But on election night, the Liberals bumped up their support to 42 per cent while that of the Progressive Conservatives tanked to only 32 per cent. Part of that swing was attributed to Tory’s disastrous campaign pledge to extend public funding to faith-based schools, a promise he had to back away from amid widespread opposition.

This election may be different. In order for Dalton McGuinty to win his third election, he will need an even more dramatic shift in support during the campaign.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website.

The four elections in Manitoba, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador are only three months away. The campaigns will start in two. So, while we are in dog days of summer in terms of polling and politics, things will rachet up very soon. I'm still working on getting the new models up and running for the provinces, and then once those four elections are completed the Saskatchewan campaign will be starting up. It should be an interesting two months.

June 2011 Federal Polling Averages

Two national polls by Nanos Research and Abacus Data and two Quebec polls by Léger Marketing and CROP were conducted during the month of June. There was little change in the voting intentions of Canadians since May, but the Conservatives are experiencing a slight uptick in this past month's weighted polling average.

Nationally, the Conservatives were up 1.4 points to 41.3% in June, extending their lead over the New Democrats to 11.6 points.

The NDP is down 1.8 points to 29.7%, while the Liberals are up 0.9 points since May to 19.5%.

The Bloc Québécois stands at 4.7% nationally, while the Greens are down 0.7 points to 4.2%.

The polls are weighted by their relative margin of error.

The Conservatives have dropped a bare 0.8 points in Ontario, and lead in the province with 43.7%. The Liberals have re-taken second spot in Ontario with a 5.3-point gain. They now have the support of 28.3% of Ontarians, compared to 23.7% for the NDP (down 4.1 points).

In Quebec, the New Democrats have gained 5.5 points and now lead with an incredible 46.7%, well ahead of the Bloc Québécois. They have gained 2.3 points and stood at 19.1% in June. The Conservatives, down 1.5 points to 18.8%, stand third while the Liberals have dropped 3.8 points to only 12.6% in Quebec.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia with 48.3%, a gain of 5.4 points since May. The New Democrats are down 3.1 points to 30.7% in the province.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have decreased 3.7 points but still lead with 61.3%. The New Democrats are second with 21%.

The Conservatives also lead in the Prairies with 50.1%, while the NDP stands at 31.2%. The Liberals are up 4.3 points to 15.3% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives lead with 35.6%, followed closely by the NDP at 32.7%. That is a four point gain for the New Democrats on the east coast.

With these June averages, the Conservatives win 162 seats: 26 in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 62 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats win 102 seats: seven in British Columbia, one in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 19 in Ontario, 62 in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win two seats in British Columbia, two in the Prairies, 25 in Ontario, three in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc Québécois is reduced to two seats in Quebec, while the Greens retain their toehold in British Columbia.

The tracking chart, stretching back to January 2009, shows a continued improvement in NDP performance in Quebec, Alberta, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. It also shows how the Liberals and Bloc continue to slide in Quebec, while the Conservatives are holding relatively steady throughout the country.