Provincial NDP makes gains in NB, NS, and NL

It might not be a tidal wave, but the tide is turning in the NDP’s favour in the four Atlantic provinces.

The latest opinion poll results from the Corporate Research Associates indicate that throughout Atlantic Canada the provincial wings of the New Democratic Party have made significant gains.

You can read the rest of this article on The Huffington Post website here.

Yesterday, the Corporate Research Associates released their Atlantic Quarterly with the voting intentions results for the four Atlantic provinces. Their website appears to be down as of this writing, but when it is up and running again you can find the press releases here.

Let's get right into it, starting with Prince Edward Island.

The Liberals under Robert Ghiz are still leading with 51%, but that is a drop of 11 points since February. Note that the margin of error is 5.7%, so these large variations are in fact within the MOE

The Progressive Conservatives are up 10 points to 35%, followed by the New Democrats at 13% (+2) and the Greens at 2%.

Undecideds number 40% of those polled, a very high result in province that is four months away from an election.

But Robert Ghiz has things well in hand, as 69% of the province is mostly or completely satisfied with his performance as leader. He is also the favourite person to be premier at 48%, followed by the PC's Olive Crane at 19% and the NDP's James Rodd at 5%.

With the results of this poll, ThreeHundredEight projects the Liberals would be re-elected to a majority government with 22 seats, down five from the last projection and down two from their current standing in the Legislative Assembly.

The Progressive Conservatives win three seats (up three from the last projection, up one from current standing), while the New Democrats win two seats (a gain of two).

Aside from the return of the NDP to Charlottetown, this is generally the same election result as the province's previous vote.

Now on to Newfoundland & Labrador, the other province with an election coming up in October.

Compared to CRA's last poll from February, the Progressive Conservatives are down a massive 16 points to 57%, though that is clearly still enough to win an equally massive majority. The Liberals are up four points to 22% while the New Democrats are up big: 12 points to 20%. Undecideds are 23%, a much lower figure than we see elsewhere.

Though Kathy Dunderdale seems to be on the downswing, she is still comfortably ahead. Fully 71% are satisfied with her performance (a drop of 11 points) while 51% think she is best suited to be premier (down 13 points). The trend is not in her favour but she is a long way away from having her premiership threatened.

Yvonne Jones of the Liberals is favoured for the premiership by 16% (-2), while Lorraine Michael of the NDP's personal numbers are up nine points to 14%. The NDP's two seats wins at the federal level in the province appear to be having an effect.

With the results of this poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects another majority government for the Progressive Conservatives. They win 38 seats, down eight from the last projection and five from their current standing in the House of Assembly.

The New Democrats win six seats, up five, and form the Official Opposition. This would be a first in Newfoundland. The Liberals win five seats, up four from February.

A more spirited opposition, perhaps, but another four years of PC rule in Newfoundland and Labrador appears on the horizon.

The NDP wave has also strengthened Darrell Dexter's position in Nova Scotia.

The NDP in the province is up eight points since February, and now leads with a healthy 42%. The Progressive Conservatives have moved into second with a five point gain, and they now stand at 31%. The Liberals have dropped 13 points to only 22%, while the Greens are unchanged at 4%.

That is a huge shift for the Liberals, though Stephen McNeil's popularity hasn't been hurt as much. He is down six points to 20% for best premier, behind Darrell Dexter at 28% (+5) and Jamie Baillie at 21% (+8).

It isn't all roses for Dexter, however, as only 47% are satisfied with his performance as premier.

Again, with this poll only ThreeHundredEight projects that the New Democrats would be re-elected to a majority government with 29 seats. That is a big change from the split assembly I projected in February.

The Progressive Conservatives win 16 seats and form the Official Opposition, while the Liberals are reduced to seven seats.

However, Nova Scotia is not likely to have its next election until 2013. It could even be pushed to the spring of 2014.

New Brunswick is also three years away from the next election, but the province would give David Alward another majority if the vote had been held in May.

The Progressive Conservatives are down two points to 56%, well within the MOE. The Liberals are down seven points to 20%, while the New Democrats are up 12 points to tie the Liberals at 20%. The NDP's success at the federal level seems to be having its effect here as well.

The People's Alliance is at 3%, while the Greens are down to 1%.

Fully 68% of New Brunswickers are satisfied with David Alward's performance, and he is the favourite to be premier of 39%. Another 15% think the next Liberal leader would be the best premier, while 14% (+8) chose the new NDP leader, Dominic Cardy.

With this poll, ThreeHundredEight projects a massive majority for the Progressive Conservatives. Unchanged from February, they would win 53 seats.

The New Democrats win two seats and form the miniscule opposition, while the Liberals are shut out from the Legislative Assembly in Fredericton.

These four provinces show some significant trends. Though the gain in support in Prince Edward Island is insignificant, the New Democrats are up across the board. Their majority government in Nova Scotia looks safer, and the party could form the Official Opposition in Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. They might even win a couple seats in PEI. That is a big shift on the East Coast

Atlantic Canadian provincial polls, Dexter in trouble

Earlier this month, Corporate Research Associates released their quarterly polls for Atlantic Canada. As we wait for the federal campaign to start in earnest, and for the polls to start rolling in, now is a good time to check-in on the provincial situations on the East Coast.

We'll start with Newfoundland & Labrador, which will be heading into an election in the fall.

Compared to Corporate Research Associates' last poll (and you can find all of the Atlantic Canadian polls at that link), the Progressive Conservatives have dropped only two points and still lead with 73%. That's merely a statistical wobble.

The Liberals are up two points to 18%, while the New Democrats are steady at 8%. The Greens, who are not a recognized party in Newfoundland & Labrador, are still being poll by CRA and had 1%. These numbers generally line-up with the recent Telelink poll, also conducted in February.

I don't project any changes from my last projection for Newfoundland & Labrador: 46 seats for the Progressive Conservatives, and one apiece for the Liberals and New Democrats.

If there is some small glimmer of hope for the opposition, it is that the popularity of Kathy Dunderdale has fallen by eight points to "only" 64%. Yvonne Jones of the Liberals is up eight points to 18%, while 5% (-3) of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians think Lorraine Michaels of the NDP would be the best Premier. Another 12% aren't sure, but do note that all three party leaders are women.

It looks pretty clear that the Progressive Conservatives will have no problem being re-elected by year's end.

Next up is the other island province, Prince Edward Island. They, too, will be headed to the polls in the fall. Note that this poll has a huge number of undecided: 45%.

Nevertheless, the governing Liberals are up nine points to 62%, while the Progressive Conservatives are down nine points to 25%.

The Island New Democrats are up seven points to 11%, while the Greens are down six to 2%.

Wiping out the Progressive Conservatives, I project the Liberals would sweep all 27 seats with this poll. People on islands tend to make decisions en masse, I guess. There's no room for error!

Robert Ghiz is the best man to be Premier for 46% of Prince Edward Islanders, ahead of Olive Crane of the PCs, who is down 10 points to only 19%. James Rodd of the NDP is up one point to 3%, while Sharon Labchuk of the Greens is down four to 2%. Another 9% said "none of the above".

Next we move to New Brunswick, which elected the Progressive Conservatives to a majority government back in September. Though the party's shine is starting to wear off, they are still in control of the situation.

The Progressive Conservatives have dropped three points in New Brunswick to 58%, but still hold a massive lead over the Liberals. They are at 27%, up two points.

The New Democrats, who have a new leader in Dominic Cardy, dropped two points to 8%. The Greens are up to to 6%.

Unchanged from my last projection for New Brunswick, the Progressive Conservatives would sweep all but two seats in the province if another election was held. But note that the undecided in this poll stands at 37%.

Current premier David Alward is the best man for the job for 42% of New Brunswickers, down three points. The phantom next leader of the Liberal Party stands at 16%, while the NDP and Greens are both unchanged at 6% and 5%, respectively. Cardy was not leader when this poll was taken, having been named leader on March 2.

Finally, on to the province with the only interesting political race: Nova Scotia. When we last heard from CRA, NDP Premier Darrell Dexter had enough support to give him a minority government.

That appears to be no longer the case, as the New Democrats have fallen four points to 34% in the province. The Liberals, with a four point gain, are now in the lead with 35%, while the Progressive Conservatives are steady at 26%.

The Greens take 4% of the vote, unchanged, with 45% being undecided (another huge result).

That's a close race, and it is even closer when the seats are tallied. Down five from last time, I project the New Democrats win 20 seats with these numbers, the same amount as the Liberals, who are up four. The PCs, the kingmakers, win 12 seats. What would happen in such a situation is beyond me, but if the Liberals win the popular vote I imagine the NDP might allow them to try to form a government. Do I smell a coalition?

Liberal leader Stephen McNeil is considered the best man to be premier, at 26% (-1). Dexter has dropped eight points to 23%, while Jamie Baillie of the PCs is at 13% (-4). Green Party leader John Percy is at 2%, down two. None-of-the-aboves is at 8%.

The outcomes of the two elections on the Atlantic coast this fall are virtually assured, the only question being how badly the opposition performs. New Brunswick has a new government, and its voters won't be heading back to the polls until 2014, while Nova Scotia is still two or three years away from a provincial election. That is plenty of time for Dexter to turn things around and Alward to mess it up, but in Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island, the opposition has little time left.

Darrell Dexter faces minority amid Atlantic Canadian landslides

Atlantic Canadians in three provinces would re-elect their incumbent governments to huge, crushing majorities, according to recent polls from Halifax-based polling firm Corporate Research Associates. But voters in Nova Scotia would hand NDP Premier Darrell Dexter a minority government.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Provincial change, federal stability in New Brunswick

Elections are few and far between, especially from my perspective. I write about polls almost every day, but each poll has as its subject an election that is often years away. I don't think it is possible to pour over provincial results too much, so it's time for one more look at the 2010 New Brunswick election. But this time, we're going to look at how the Progressive Conservatives won, and whether it means anything for the ten federal ridings within the province.

So how did David Alward cobble together his unexpected landslide? The secret appears to have been that he was able to tread water while his main rival, Shawn Graham's Liberal Party, sank.

The biggest seat swings came in Fredericton and the northeastern sector of the province. In the provincial capital, the Progressive Conservatives went from 42% in 2006 to 43% in 2010. But more importantly, they went from zero seats to all four. This was accomplished by the Liberal slide from 50% to only 34%. It was the NDP and the Greens who struck the nails in the Liberal coffin here and elsewhere.

In the Northeast, the Progressive Conservatives went from two of the region's 13 seats to seven. They did this, again, with only a modest increase in support: from 40% to 44%. The Liberals went from 54% to 41%, losing five of the 11 seats they had won in 2006. In this part of New Brunswick, it was primarily the New Democrats who caused the Liberal downfall.

Other PC gains were in Saint John and in central and western New Brunswick. In Saint John, Alward increased his party's support from 37% to 45%, winning all four of the city's seats, whereas the PCs had won only one in 2006. In the Southwest, the PCs went from 48% to 53% while the Liberals sank from 45% to 30%. Again, the NDP and Greens had a lot to do with Liberal defeats, but it was the Progressive Conservatives who saw their seat wins in the region go from four in 2006 to seven in 2010. It was the same story in the Northwest, where the PCs gained six points but the Liberals lost 13.

The Liberals did not manage to improve their share of the vote in any part of the province, though they did win more seats in 2010 than they did in 2006 in Moncton and the southeast, where the Progressive Conservatives also lost support to the Greens and NDP.

In short, David Alward won the 2010 election by maintaining his party's level of support while the Liberals fell by the wayside, making seat gains in rural and urban New Brunswick.

But can these regional changes tell us anything about what we can expect in the ten federal ridings in the province?

We'll start with the three urban centres.

Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton have all seen close races in the last few federal elections. The Liberals had held onto Fredericton in 2004 and 2006, but lost it by 11 points in 2008. The Liberals have held onto Moncton over the last three elections, but only by three points in 2008. And Saint John has gone back and forth, with Conservative candidate Rodney Weston winning in 2008 by only 497 votes.

Provincial results bode well for the Conservatives in Saint John and Fredericton, two seats they already hold and in which their provincial counterparts improved their vote hauls from 2006 to 2010. But in Moncton, the PC vote fell from 55% to 48%. The Liberal vote also dropped, however, from 42% to 34%. It should be another close race in the next federal election.

In the northeast, Yvon Godin's riding of Acadie-Bathurst is very safe, considering he has held it since 1997 and that he won the last election with a 15,000-vote margin. Miramichi, on the other hand, was a close race in 2008, with the Conservatives edging out the Liberals by only five points. As the Progressive Conservatives managed to turn a 14-point Liberal lead into a three-point PC one bodes well for Tilly O'Neill-Gordon, the Conservative MP.

A Liberal and a Conservative hold the two federal seats in northwestern New Brunswick: Madawaska-Restigouche and Tobique-Mactaquac, respectively. Jean-Claude D'Amours won by a decent margin in Madawaska-Restigouche in 2008, but it was a much closer race in 2006. The Conservatives have held Tobique-Mactaquac since that election, with a big margin in 2008. As the Progressive Conservatives swept the region at the provincial level, D'Amours might have a tough fight on his hands again in the next federal tilt.

Liberal Dominic Leblanc is pretty untouchable in Beauséjour. The provincial Liberals performed decently in the region so that shouldn't change. Conservatives Rob Moore and Gregory Thompson have been pretty untouchable themselves in Fundy Royal and New Brunswick Southwest, so the provincial PC win should do nothing but help their electoral fortunes.

That is, of course, if the Progressive Conservatives don't scuttle their current level of popularity. We saw this happen in Nova Scotia. The federal NDP was performing well in Atlantic Canada after Darrell Dexter's provincial win, but as his government's support has dwindled we have seen Jack Layton's party sink below the 20% mark on more than one occasion.

As was the case at the provincial level, the most hotly contested ridings in New Brunswick in the next federal election will likely be in the province's three largest cities. But of the 10 MPs in New Brunswick, only three weren't elected with double-digit margins. So the possibility of a change in New Brunswick matching the sweeping result of the last provincial election is, it appears, remote.

Federal vs. Provincial Results in New Brunswick, Part Deux

Yesterday, Alice Funke of the Pundits' Guide wrote an article pointing out a few of the concerns she had with my piece yesterday. In that piece, I compared the federal and provincial election results in New Brunswick since 1978, hoping to find some sort of trend that could tell us what to expect in the next federal election.

But before responding to her piece, I think it is necessary to talk a little bit about the philosophy behind each of our two sites. The Pundits' Guide is, bar none, the best political reference for Canadian politics available online. Alice does an incredible job compiling all of the data and her site makes it possible to analyze that data in any number of ways. She also posts on timely topics with great insight, and keeps us up-to-date with riding nominations, by-elections, and financial data for the political parties.

While The Pundits' Guide is about historical election results and the most current information about Canadian politics, ThreeHundredEight.com is about what's next. I cover polls and make projections, and now and then I look at tangential issues from a numbers point-of-view. When I look at those issues or reach back into history, as I did yesterday, it is usually as an attempt to find out what we can about what will happen in the future. ThreeHundredEight.com is about the hypothetical, but based on the best data available.

While our two sites are related by subject matter, our content is very different and our approach is, I'd say, different as well. That is reflected in what I focused on in my post about New Brunswick's electoral history and what Alice did in her critique of it.

So, now that the preamble is out of the way, here is my friendly rebuttal.

First, one of Alice's points of contention was that I used vote-share rather than actual votes. In other words, instead of focusing on how a party got 50 out of 100 votes in one election and 25 out of 50 votes in another, I've focused on the fact that in both cases the result is 50%.

It's a fair point. Using actual votes would have given me a more precise result in terms of comparison, especially when speaking about individual voting behaviour. But when I change the chart to reflect actual votes rather than vote share, it doesn't really tell a different story. Here are the two charts for comparison:
To my eyes, these charts are virtually the same, and in fact using actual votes makes the provincial and federal results mirror each other more closely. I will, however, admit that I should have gone this route as it is more indicative of what has happened in New Brunswick over the last 32 years.

Second, Alice did not think it was proper to combine the results of the Confederation of Regions with those of the Progressive Conservatives at the provincial level, and the results of the Canadian Alliance/Reform with those of the Progressive Conservatives at the federal level.

She's correct that combining the results of these parties simplifies matters and tells only half of the story. But that was my intent. My post was not meant as an appraisal of New Brunswick's voting history, it was meant as a means of looking into the future based on what has happened in the past. Does the performance of the Confederation of Regions or the Reform Party tell us anything today? It doesn't, other than that a populist party can gain votes in New Brunswick. Unless a new populist party appears at the federal level, there is nothing to gain from separating these results from those of the Conservatives.

They do, after all, draw from the same pool of voters. As Alice points out, the Confederation of Regions did take votes from both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives in 1991, but that is more likely because the 1987 election was an aberration. In that election, New Brunswickers ousted a long-time PC premier who was mired in scandal. Those PC voters who voted in Liberal in 1987 are almost certainly the same voters who cast their ballots for the CoR in 1991. If anything, it is probably unwise to read too much into the Liberal performance in 1987, which actually works out fine as the federal performance in 1988 was unimpressive by comparison.

Third, Alice felt I was misguided to not include the Greens in my analysis. Again, this was because of the purpose of my article. I only wanted to look at the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP because they are the only parties in play in New Brunswick. And since there was no provincial Green Party before this 2010 election, there was nothing to compare the federal Green results to.

Fourth, and this is a minor one, was my use of the word "correlation". She interpreted it in the statistical sense, while I only meant it in the linguistic sense. The statistical definition of "correlation" is fair more restrictive than the English definition of the word.

Fifth, she took issue with my statement that the same people were voting either Liberal or Conservative (in all its forms) election after election. I'll submit that it was a simplification, but virtually every Liberal gain is matched by a Conservative loss, and vice versa. This is visible in both the vote share and raw vote charts. While a few voters are certainly switching their votes from NDP or Green to the Liberals or the Conservatives, these are undoubtedly a small minority.

Sixth, and this is perhaps the most important, is her disagreement with my conclusions. I concluded that, based on the trends visible in the charts, the Conservatives should gain in the next federal election while the Liberals should lose. Alice called these predictions but I didn't mean them as such. I was taking the next logical step from my original conclusion that provincial and federal voting behaviour in New Brunswick generally follow the same pattern. I was only forming a hypothesis based on what I saw as a trend in the chart.

The purpose of my post was to compare the voting behaviour of Liberals, Conservatives (all branches), and New Democrats at the provincial and federal levels. I've discovered in other provinces that these don't always match, and sometimes they differ by a significant amount. It doesn't seem to be that way in New Brunswick. It goes without saying, however, that I would not base my projections of future electoral results in New Brunswick on this little exercise.

Federal vs. Provincial Results in New Brunswick

Though it feels like an eternity has passed, it has actually been only a little more than two weeks since the New Brunswick provincial election.

I've compared provincial and federal results in the past, with various levels of correlation, so it is about time to take a look at how federal and provincial results compare in New Brunswick, and whether we can take anything from that for the next federal election.As you can see from this chart, the Liberal and Conservative/Progressive Conservative numbers have been relatively consistent. It is clearly the same people who are switching their votes between Team Red and Team Blue.

While it doesn't seem that there is a direct correlation between provincial and federal elections, they do seem to act as indicators.

We'll start with the Conservatives. For the period prior to 2004, I've combined the results of the Canadian Alliance/Reform with the Progressive Conservatives. I've also included the results of the Confederation of the Regions in the Progressive Conservative numbers at the provincial level.

Provincial and federal fortunes for the Conservatives seem to have a relatively similar narrative. We see Conservative success in the early 80s followed by trouble until the 1997 federal and 1999 provincial elections, when the Conservative vote increased. There was a drop in the 2003 and 2004 elections, but since then the Conservatives look to have made modest gains. If the trend continues, we can expect the Conservatives to increase their vote slightly from the 39.4% the party earned in 2008.

Liberals at the provincial and federal levels seem to mirror each other even more. After difficulties in the early 80s, the Liberals at both levels soared between the provincial elections of 1987 and 1995. They then swiftly tanked, and since then the provincial and federal parties have been running at almost the exact same level, though the federal version of the Liberal Party has been under-performing since 2006. If the trends continue, we can expect the Liberals to drop from their 32.5% they had in 2008.

Finally, the New Democrats. Their gains and losses do not seem to have mirrored each other very much, but they do seem to be drawing from the same pool of voters. The provincial NDP was remarkably consistent from 1982 to 2010, with only the disastrous 2006 election interrupting a generally straight line. The federal version of the party, however, had a bit more of a roller-coast ride, dropping from 16.2% in 1980 to only 4.9% in 1993. But since then the party has been doing very well, and has maintained about 21% support over the last three elections under Jack Layton. Since the provincial version of the NDP has also been relatively stable, we can probably expect the federal NDP to remain at about 1 in 5 support.

2010 New Brunswick Election Results vs. Projection

Last night, New Brunswickers elected a Progressive Conservative majority government, defeating the Liberals and making them the first one-term government in the province's history.

When the ballots were all counted, the Progressive Conservatives won 48.9% of the vote and 42 seats, doubling the size of their caucus from when the writ was dropped. The Liberals held on to only 34.4% of the vote and 13 seats, being reduced to a small rump of an opposition.

No other parties elected an MLA. The New Democrats took 10.4% of the vote, with the Greens taking 4.5% and the People's Alliance 1.2%. Independents took the remaining 0.6%.

In the last week of the campaign, it appears that people turned hard against the Liberal government, with many of the undecideds casting their ballot for David Alward's party, in what was a decent turnout (72.8%, the highest since 1999 and the last PC landslide).

I'm generally pleased with my projection, though not completely content. I did project a solid Progressive Conservative majority, and I was within a whisker of getting all of the second tier party votes absolutely correct. However, I was incorrect in calling an NDP seat win and I over-estimated the strength of the Liberal vote. IBut the polls never had the Liberals as low as 34% and in the last set of polling it appeared that the gap between the two main parties was closing.

As you can see on the chart below, the PC vote actually rebounded very strongly, compared to the polls. I had their daily average at about 44% on the last day of polling, and they picked up five points from there.The Liberals were at about 37%, and they lost three points, though in the end their trend line looks relatively consistent. Remarkably, the NDP, Greens, and People's Alliance held on to their vote very well. They hardly lost any of the support that they had in the polls.

But my call on the seats was off. Instead of 31 seats, the Progressive Conservatives won 42. Instead of 23 seats, the Liberals only won 13. And instead of one seat, the NDP was shut-out. That was a bit of a surprise, as the NDP had run a good campaign and Roger Duguay looked like he had a lot of promise in Tracadie-Sheila. He put up a good fight and finished in second in the riding, but was still about 17 points behind.

However, I did choose the winner and the type of government, which I am happy about. Other projectors had the race much closer than I did, and with the Liberals bucking a trend of re-elected first-term governments, it was a bit of gamble to choose the PCs when it appeared that their support was slipping. Of course, it would have taken a lot of chutzpah to call a landslide of this magnitude.

I am very pleased at how the popular vote turned out - at least for the smaller parties.I was off by about five points for both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals, but it appears that this is how the undecideds split in the last week of the campaign.

I had the Progressive Conservatives at 43.6%, and they ended up with 48.9%, for a disparity of 5.3 points. I had the Liberals at 40.1% and they ended up with 34.4%, a disparity of 5.7 points. I am not happy with those results, but it would have been going out on a limb to have the Liberals at lower than they ever got during the campaign. I under-estimated the PC vote, but I think everyone was surprised at how it turned out.

I nailed the small parties, though. I had the NDP at 10.4%, and they got 10.4%. I had the Greens at 4.3%, and they ended up with 4.5%. And I had the People's Alliance and independents at 1.5%, and they ended up with 1.8%. I am extremely happy with these results, as it is actually a bit more difficult to gauge the support of these smaller parties properly. The model correctly estimated the ability of these parties to keep their vote.

So, what went wrong? Clearly, my estimation of the popular support of the PCs and Liberals was off. I can lay some of the blame on the pollsters, as no one had this result, but a lot of it also has to go on me. I believe I put a bit too much importance on older polls - but it was difficult to base the projection on new ones when so few new ones were available. The last bit of polling from the Corporate Research Associates, the poll that was done for the Telegraph-Journal ending on September 19, was actually not too far off: 46% for the PCs, 36% for the Liberals, 11% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 1% for the People's Alliance. But their larger sample which was given to me personally, and which also ended on September 19, turned out to be far more inaccurate and, in the end, it was a mistake for me to include it.

The seat projection, though, was not the problem.Had my popular vote projection been dead-on, I would have projected 44 seats for the Progressive Conservatives, 10 for the Liberals, and one for the NDP. People would have called me mad, but in the end that would have been remarkably close to the 42/13 split that was the result between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives. I would've gotten the NDP seat wrong, but it was a very tough call considering I had to estimate the NDP's chances of winning one individual riding based on nothing but province-wide numbers.

Now that the results are in, I have to say that I am generally happy with how the projection model operated. The seat projection model was good, but the popular vote model was not. Part of the problem was the lack of polls and the lack of polling in the last week, but for next time I will have to work on a method to estimate support when there are no polls available. But I got the vote right for the small parties, and called a sizable PC majority, so all in all I think my projecting of the 2010 New Brunswick campaign was a qualified success.

308 in the Globe & Mail

I've written a piece for the Globe & Mail, which can be accessed here. It's generally about my projection for the election. Please visit the G&M, read what I have written, and leave your comments there!

Voting Day: Assigned Readings

Today's the day. And the CBC has some profiles on a few ridings to watch tonight.

The Times & Transcript also has a run down of the campaign and things to look for tonight.

For francophone readers, Le Devoir has a summary of the campaign.

But if you live in New Brunswick, the most important thing for you to read is the information on the NB elections site. There, you can find out all you need to know in order to exercise your right to vote today.

Mind the Gap

As I've pointed out on several occasions, a full week has passed since the last days of polling. Tomorrow is voting day in New Brunswick - so how can we make an attempt at estimating voting behaviour when almost the last 1/4th of the campaign has not had any polling?

This is not the first time something like this has happened in New Brunswick. Corporate Research Associates has a policy of not polling in the last week of a campaign, and that policy still existed in 2006.

The last CRA poll during the 2006 campaign was taken on September 10th, with the vote taking place on September 18th. It's an identical situation to this electoral campaign: the last day of polling was September 19th, while the vote will be taking place eight days later on September 27th (tomorrow).

In that last CRA poll during the 2006 campaign, the Progressive Conservatives were at 42%. The Liberals were at 44% and the New Democrats were at 10%.

Eight days later, the parties actually got 48%, 47%, and 5%, respectively.

That isn't exactly on the mark. In the end, the PC vote increased by a factor of 1.143 and the Liberal vote by a factor of 1.068. The NDP vote eroded by a factor of 0.5.

Was that a polling error, or the permutations of the final stages of a campaign? The likely answer is a bit of both.

To determine how people will vote tomorrow, based on the last available CRA poll, we could apply the same adjustment that took place during the 2006 campaign. Of course, that campaign had its own issues and flashpoints, and using the 2006 campaign as our only point of data limits the predictive capability of this exercise. In truth, I'd consider that capability to be almost zero. But it is a fun little exercise nevertheless, and gives us a little preview of what could happen tomorrow.The last CRA poll in this campaign (the one I reported on a few days ago encompassing data from both the TJ and CBC polls) had the Progressive Conservatives at 43%, the Liberals at 38%, and the New Democrats at 11%.

Applying the same level of adjustment that took place in 2006, we end up with 49% for the Progressive Conservatives, 41% for the Liberals, and 6% for the New Democrats. Those are convenient numbers, as they leave four percentage points that we can distribute comfortably to the Greens and People's Alliance.

With those levels of support, I project that David Alward's party would win 36 seats and form a majority government. The Liberals would win 19 seats and the New Democrats would win none.

But, again, I ask you to take these numbers with a massive grain of salt. It is much more likely than not that the changes in support in the last week of the campaign will come about differently than they did four years ago.

Day Thirty-One: Assigned Readings

The campaign is in its last weekend, so why not some last minute promises? The Liberals will build a new YW-YMCA building in Saint John, while the Progressive Conservatives are pledging a new cruise ship berth in the city.

David Alward has suggested that New Brunswick gain more control over immigration, in the same way that Quebec has. He argues that New Brunswick will be better able to attract and target people with the skill sets the province needs.

Shawn Graham flatters Moncton, but will he still be there in the morning?

Bernard Lord's assessment of Monday's vote. He thinks Team Blue will win.

The Telegraph-Journal summarizes the 2006 election campaign.

Trends favour PC majority in New Brunswick

The last polls for the New Brunswick electoral campaign were taken on September 19th. The date of the vote is September 27th. That is a big gap. Things can change in one week of an electoral campaign, particularly if a debate is within that week. The last polls still show a little under 20% of the electorate undecided, so a lot of votes are at play.

I've done two exercises that try to bridge the gap between that last day of polling and the day of the vote. The first takes the trend from the beginning of the campaign to September 19th, and applies it to the last eight non-polled days of the campaign. The second takes the trend over the final week of polling and applies that to the last eight days.

Is this how the vote will turn out on September 27th? It's impossible to know. As far as I am concerned my popular vote projection will be the result on Monday. But this is an interesting look at how the campaign could turn out, based on what has already happened.

We'll start with the campaign-long trend. The Progressive Conservatives started the campaign at 42%, and was last polling at 44%. That is a level of growth of 0.08 points per day. For the Liberals, they started at 41% and ended at 37%, a loss of 0.16 points per day.

The New Democrats went from 10% to 11%, for a growth of 0.04 points per day. The Greens grew at a rate of 0.08 points per day, going from 4% to 6%, while the People's Alliance went from 1% to 1.5%, or an increase of 0.02 points per day.

Obviously, these changes are hardly outside of the margin of error, and most are actually within the margin of error. But this is all the data we have.Extrapolating these rates of growth and decline over the final eight days of the campaign, we end up with 44.6% for the Progressive Conservatives, 35.7% for the Liberals, 11.3% for the New Democrats, 6.6% for the Greens, and 1.7% for the People's Alliance and independents.

That is a wide lead for the PCs, and as you will see below it creates a large David Alward majority government.

The trends over the last seven days of polling, however, were quite different. On September 13th, the Progressive Conservatives were polling at 47.9%, the Liberals at 37.3%, the New Democrats at 9.7%, the Greens at 4.7%, and the People's Alliance at 0.4%. On September 19th, they were polling at 44%, 37%, 11%, 6%, and 1.5%, respectively. That is a rate of growth of 0.19 points per day for the NDP and the Greens and 0.16 points per day for the People's Alliance. The Liberals declined at a rate of 0.04 points per day and the Progressive Conservatives at a rate of 0.56 points per day.Continuing that trend over the final eight days of the campaign, the Progressive Conservatives still end up on top but with only 39.5% of the vote. The Liberals are reduced to 36.7%, while the New Democrats rise to 12.5%. The Greens take 7.5% and the People's Alliance and independents take the last 2.8%.

This demonstrates pretty well how the campaign has played out. Overall, it has been about PC growth and Liberal decline, but the second-half of the campaign has seen the Progressive Conservatives slipping. Which of these two narratives proves to be true will be discovered on September 27th.

In terms of seats, both scenarios end with a Progressive Conservative majority. Using the campaign-long trend, the PCs win 38 seats while the Liberals take only 16. The New Democrats would elect one MLA.

With the trend of the last week, the Progressive Conservatives would still win 31 seats and form a majority government. The Liberals would win 22 seats and the New Democrats would win two.

Either way you slice it, the trends are positive for David Alward. While his vote seems to have been dropping of late, Shawn Graham has not been able to capitalize, and has been slowing sinking since the start of the campaign. Unless something radical has happened in this last week, or if the polls have been completely wrong, we should see a Progressive Conservative majority government elected on Monday night.

Day Thirty: Assigned Readings

The last week day of the campaign. If the old adage is true, New Brunswickers will be sitting around their dinner tables this weekend making their final voting decisions. The vote is on Monday, so if you live in New Brunswick make sure you find out where you can vote.

The Telegraph-Journal summarizes last night's debate. I didn't get to see it, but at least from this report it seems to have been a little more substantive than the two earlier debates. Here's another report on the debate from the Times & Transcript.

The Progressive Conservatives are claiming that the Liberals are spending and promising beyond their platform, while the Liberals are charging that the Progressive Conservative platform is not costed.

Here's a neat analysis of the 2003 New Brunswick election.

Race in New Brunswick tightens

The Corporate Research Associates were kind enough to provide me with the results of their last days of polling, incorporating both the CBC/Acadie Nouvelle and Telegraph-Journal survey results from September 16th to September 19th. As it showed a much closer race than either the CBC or last TJ polls had shown, I decided that it must be included in the projection.

I went back and forth on this a little, as this data is not publicly available and requires me to discard the CBC poll and the last set of the TJ weekly tracking poll. As this data is from September 16th to 19th, however, it allows me to use the last full week of TJ polling (September 9th to 15th) and only lose one day of CBC polling. So, in the end, I think it gives me a better shot at an accurate projection for Monday's vote.

Because this data combines the CBC and TJ polls, we get the largest sample size of the electoral campaign - 1,250 people. The result shows that the latest data from Abacus appears to be accurate, as the Progressive Conservatives have taken a step back and lead with only five points over the Liberals.Compared to CRA's last TJ poll, 43% is a drop of three points for the Progressive Conservatives. It is a drop of four points from the CBC poll. The Liberals are up a little, from 36% in the TJ poll and 37% in the CBC poll to 38% in this last set of data. This tells me that in the last few days of polling the race has really gotten closer.

The New Democrats stand at 11% while the Greens are at 6%. The People's Alliance is at 1%.

What's great about the data that CRA provided me is that I have a regional breakdown.

In northern New Brunswick, the Liberals have a slight lead with 44% to the Progressive Conservatives' 40%. Compared to the 2006 election, it appears that both the Liberals and PCs haven't moved too much relative to each other, though both main parties seem to be about five points down. Those 10 points or so are going to the New Democrats and Greens. The NDP is running at about twice as much as they were at in 2006, which bodes well for Roger Duguay in Tracadie-Sheila. The Greens, who were not an active party in 2006, also take their fair share.

Where the Progressive Conservatives seem to have cobbled together their lead is in southern New Brunswick. They appear to be running at about the same level as they were at in 2006, with 49%, while the Liberals are down well over 10 points to 30%. This region seems to be the kingmaker of the election, which explains why Shawn Graham and David Alward have been fighting over Saint John. The New Democrats are, again, running about twice as strongly as they did in 2006, making a seat win in Saint John a possibility. The Greens are also doing well here with 8% support.

Finally, the Liberals have a good lead in the Moncton region with 44%. The Progressive Conservatives are behind at 34%, while the New Democrats are performing well with 15%. This could be a problem for the Progressive Conservatives, as the region has historically been good to them. The Liberals seem to be maintaining their 2003 and 2006 levels of support here, while the NDP is running at about three-to-four times more strongly than they did in 2006. But, of course, the sample size here would be very small and have a large margin of error.

So, with this poll the projection has changed only slightly. The Progressive Conservatives are down to 43.6% but are projected to win a majority with 31 seats (down one seat). The Liberals are up to 40.1%, and are projected to win 23 seats. The New Democrats are at 10.4% and one seat, while the Greens should take 4.3% of the vote. The People's Alliance and independents will take the remaining 1.5%.

With the slight downturn we've seen in Progressive Conservative support of late, I'm a little more comfortable with this projection than the previous one. This election does pose several problems for me, however.

Firstly, there have only been two active pollsters, CRA and Abacus, and the latter only released one province-wide poll. While this has provided me with more data than one would expect for a province of less than one million people, it is still not nearly as much data as we can expect in a federal election.

Secondly, one whole week will pass between the last bit of polling data and election day. Worse still, a debate is scheduled for tonight and the campaign has become particularly nasty in the last few days. When we consider that in the 2008 election there were a lot of changes in the last week of polling (one week before election day, the Conservatives were polling at more than four points lower than their electoral result), it makes it all the more difficult to be confident that the polls will hold steady. That is why I have included some older polls and past elections (though they are not given much weight) to act as a bit of a guide rail.

Hopefully this strategy will prove to be the right one.

Day Twenty-Nine: Assigned Readings

Only four full days before voting day. My sources tell me that we shouldn't expect any more polls, which is unfortunate as it appeared that the gap was starting to close. But I'm comfortable with the projection as it currently stands, so I feel ready for Monday.

In the run up to that day, CBC reports that Saint-John is becoming a key battleground between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives - but don't forget the New Democrats.

Alward is reckless while Graham is a liar. Stay classy, New Brunswick!

The last debate, a round table featuring Shawn Graham, David Alward, and Roger Duguay, will be broadcast tonight on CTV. With only a few days to go and fewer than 20% of New Brunswickers undecided, this could be a key moment in the campaign.

L'Étoile provides a very good summary of the campaign so far, and what's at stake for Monday (in French).

Day Twenty-Eight: Assigned Readings

Oddly enough, it appears that the Telegraph-Journal did not publish any polling data from the Corporate Research Associates today. They've done it throughout the campaign, but instead today are trumpeting the poll I told you about that was produced by Abacus Data.

They are, however, comparing the two polls in this article here. It seems relatively straight forward that since Abacus polled over a few days and CRA polled over seven days that the results would be different - along with the fact that two different polling firms will always come to different conclusions when the margin of error is about four points.

From the CBC, we have a piece by Donald Savoie, saying that New Brunswickers have some tough choices ahead of them but that the two main parties are not telling them the truth.

Instead, they appear to be hurling accusations and insults at one another over senior care.

Two NB polls tell slightly different story

We are blessed today to have two New Brunswick polls from two different polling firms. We've heard of Abacus Data before when that poll of francophone New Brunswick was released, but this is the first province-wide poll we've seen from them. It adds another data point to the projection and gives us something that helps us to confirm, or refute, the daily polling of the Corporate Research Associates.

We'll start with the latter's poll, which shows a widening gap between the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals.The Progressive Conservatives have gained one point and now stand at 46%. The Liberals are down one point to 36%, their lowest number in the campaign so far. The New Democrats are up one to 11%, their highest number but one they've been at before.

The Greens and People's Alliance are unchanged at 6% and 1%, respectively.

The number of undecideds continues to reduce, and is now at 20% of the electorate.

David Alward has reached his own personal high, with 32% of New Brunswickers saying he is the best man for the premiership. That's up three points from yesterday, and represents about 47% of decideds. Shawn Graham, meanwhile, is down two points to 24%, or 35% of decideds.

Roger Duguay is at 6%, up one, while Jack MacDougall is at 5%, also up one. Kris Austin is unchanged at 1%.

Now the poll from Abacus, which shows the race as being far closer than what CRA has found recently.However, this poll still confirms some of what we've seen elsewhere, and with the margin of error we're talking about the same result. That's good, as we had no way of verifying CRA's polling.

Abacus has the Progressive Conservatives at 42%, four points ahead of the Liberals at 38%. The New Democrats are at 11%, while the Greens are at 6% and the People's Alliance is at 2%. Abacus found that 17% of the electorate is undecided.

This poll also looked at the opinions of New Brunswickers on Shawn Graham's now abandoned idea of selling NB Power. Fully 61% disagreed (either somewhat or strongly) with the decision, compared to only 28% who agreed. Abacus also looked at whether this was a factor in their decision on how they would vote, and it was for about a third of New Brunswickers. So, undoubtedly it is one of the things driving the Liberal struggle.

In terms of seats, the CRA poll would give the Progressive Conservatives 38, the Liberals 16, and the New Democrats one. A solid, comfortable majority - which is also the result that would come from the Abacus poll: 32 PC seats, 22 Liberal seats, and one New Democrat. Though Abacus has a closer race, in either case the Progressive Conservatives are still in a good spot.

As for the projection, I have given Abacus Data an accuracy weight of 0.50, as they are a new pollster (CRA has a weight of 1.21). After the New Brunswick election, I will be able to give them a rating based on how close they end up calling the vote.

With the addition of these two polls, the Progressive Conservatives gain a seat and are now at 32. The Liberals lose a seat and are down to 22, while the New Democrats remain at one MLA.

For the popular vote, the Progressive Conservatives are unchanged at 44.5%, but the Liberals are down 0.6 to 39.5%. The New Democrats are up 0.3 points to 10.0% and the Greens are up 0.1 to 4.3%. The People's Alliance and independents are up 0.1 to 1.6%.

Without another poll from Abacus to determine a trend, we can't say that the Abacus poll refutes the findings from CRA, who show a significant lead for the PCs and one that is relatively stable. Abacus shows a lead outside of the MOE for David Alward, but a closer race. What Abacus does confirm is the level of support for the second and third tier parties and that the Liberals are well below where they need to be to avoid being the province's first one-term government.

Day Twenty-Seven: Assigned Readings

According to a CBC/CRA poll, 57% of New Brunswickers support the idea of reforming municipal government, something David Alward has proposed but for which he has also been criticized.

However, not from this article in the Telegraph-Journal, which supports Alward's plan.

The New Democrats have presented their platform, and it is based around the idea of fiscal responsibility.

Meanwhile, Alward and Graham trade barbs.

The Times & Transcript reports that advanced voting is on the same track as the 2006 election, when turnout was about 68%.

NB CBC poll added to projection

As Don Mills of the Corporate Research Associates has informed me that their poll conducted for the CBC and L'Acadie Nouvelle is, in fact, completely different from the daily polling conducted for the Telegraph-Journal, I have decided to add it to the projection model. It is a good poll to have in it because it is so large and concentrated on fewer days than the daily TJ poll. Accordingly, it has changed the projection significantly.Compared to where they were this morning, the Progressive Conservatives have picked up two seats and are now projected to win 31. The Liberals have been reduced by two to 23 seats, while the New Democrats remain at one.


In terms of the popular vote, the PCs are up one full point to 44.5% while the Liberals are done 1.2 points to 40.1%. The New Democrats are down 0.3 to 9.7% and the Greens are up 0.4 points to 4.2%. The People's Alliance and independents are up 0.2 points to 1.5%.

PCs stumble but Liberals stagnant

Today's TJ/CRA poll shows some significant movement going on in the New Brunswick electoral campaign, but oddly enough most that moment is taking place outside of the governing Liberals' base of support.

Before getting into today's numbers, however, a brief look at Sunday's numbers is in order. Those numbers (encompassing polling data from September 11th to the 17th) had the Progressive Conservatives at 49%, up one from the polling ending on September 16th. The Liberals were at 37%, down one, and the New Democrats were at 9% (unchanged). The Greens were down one to 4% and the People's Alliance was done one to less than 1%.

Now for today's numbers.As you can see, the Progressive Conservatives have seriously stumbled, dropping four points to 45%. They haven't been that low since September 9th. But the Liberals haven't taken advantage of David Alward's misfortune, as they are only up one point to 38%. Instead, the gains are spread out amongst all the other parties, with the New Democrats rising one point to 10% and the Greens rising two to 6% (their highest mark in the campaign so far). Even the People's Alliance is up: one point to 1%.

The gap between the two main parties, which has been as great as 13 points, is now shrunken down to seven.

This poll would still give the Progressive Conservatives a majority with 35 seats. The Liberals would win 19 and the NDP would win one. That is a small majority, however, than Sunday's numbers would have given: 40 PC seats, 14 Liberals, and one NDP.

But this wasn't the only poll released today. The CBC and L'Acadie Nouvelle commissioned a poll of their own. However, this poll was also conducted by the Corporate Research Associates from September 15th to September 18th. I have inquired as to whether this poll was completely different from their on-going polling for the Telegraph-Journal. As I don't know the circumstances of this poll, I've decided not to include it in the model until I find out more about it. Even if it was a separate poll, it still sounds rather redundant, as CRA uses a distinct methodology that won't differentiate this CBC/AN poll from their TJ poll. If it is a completely separate poll, all it means is that from September 15-18 more people were polled, reducing CRA's margin of error. But it is still, generally speaking, the same poll.

Nevertheless, the poll shows very similar numbers to the TJ daily poll: 47% for the Progressive Conservatives, 37% for the Liberals, 9% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens among decided voters. Among decided and leaning voters, we get 44% for the PCs, 38% for the Liberals, 11% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 1% for the People's Alliance.

The former group would give the Progressive Conservatives 37 seats to the Liberals' 17, while the latter group gives David Alward 33 seats to the Liberals' 21. In both cases the NDP elect one MLA.

In terms of leader preferences, David Alward has slipped in the TJ/CRA poll to 29%, down two points. Shawn Graham is steady at 26% and Roger Duguay is down one to 5%. Jack MacDougall is at 4% (up one) and Kris Austin is at 1% (unchanged).

The CBC/AN poll found 30% preferred Alward, 28% preferred Graham, 9% chose Duguay, 6% picked MacDougall, and 2% preferred Austin. So, really, nothing all that different there.

This set of polling shows that the race is getting closer - but Alward is still comfortably in majority territory. Only one week remains for the party leaders to convince voters to vote for them, and with 22% still undecided according to today's TJ/CRA poll, there is still some opportunity for change in these last seven days.